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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3247467 times)
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September 17, 2018, 08:33:22 PM
 #39381

The full report is available here: https://research.bloomberg.com/pub/res/d37g1Q1hEhBkiRCu_ruMdMsbc0A

Quote
The largest upside we see in the entire cryptoasset market is in the Privacy sector. Although Privacy networks are newer entrants, we believe the network effects seen from the likes of BTC earlier on will be repeated within dominant coins here. Not only do these coins target the same large and lower velocity store of value market as BTC and Currencies, they present a much deeper value proposition within those markets. As we stated above, the largest drivers of adoption within these networks will be continued pressure from capital controls, currency devaluation, and broader global turmoil. The use cases within the Privacy markets are incredibly sticky and feed on adoption, especially when regulators and law enforcement are making efforts to increase forensic penetration into public networks like BTC. Privacy networks do lack liquidity when compared to more commonly used Currencies, but they excel in and push the extremes of each use case within Currency networks. Recently, we have already seen early signs of adoption by some of these cryptoassets; ransoms being posted to large corporations where even BTC could be tracked and was not the preferred method, money laundering, and asset shielding. Looking into the space, we believe the use cases that target the largest end-markets will primarily use XMR (~60%) and ZEC (~20%). Despite developers and executives associated with these projects declining to comment upon illegal use (to avoid legal ramifications), the largest opportunity within the Privacy networks will be unlawful activities. Considering the nature of the use cases, the Privacy market user base will most likely rely on networks that have more active codebase development, more resistance to centralized control (possibly through mining), a growing ecosystem, and growing user base. Not only is XMR far more active in codebase development (prior report, pg. 20) and resistant to centralized mining efforts, it is fungible. While ZEC has an easier time being traded in regulated markets (since it has privacy features by request, not by default), we believe this will be a setback to adoption by darker markets, which prefer networks that are fungible (where more addresses use privacy than those which do not, making it more difficult to track down/blacklist tainted addresses). Only ~5% of the ZEC network uses “shielded” (or private) addresses currently, with the rest of the addresses being used for transactions functionally and technically no different than BTC.
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September 17, 2018, 09:11:57 PM
 #39382

After all, this recent bloodbath the price of Monero has resisted well. I remember that for some time it was similar to the LTC. Now it's double. Not that this comparison is worth anything, but it is a simple way to compare.

There was a great fall with the hunt the anonymous coins by the authorities of Asian countries. But in those two weeks besides resisting the falls still rises above average.

Monero is undoubtedly the only anonymous project. Still has several difficulties. But my theory is that some people are selling BTCs from their exchanges in an attempt to escape from KYC and to leave no trace they choose Monero.

This shows that eventually, monero will outperform other projects as the standard currency of those seeking freedom and privacy.
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September 17, 2018, 11:06:07 PM
 #39383

The full report is available here: https://research.bloomberg.com/pub/res/d37g1Q1hEhBkiRCu_ruMdMsbc0A

Quote
The largest upside we see in the entire cryptoasset market is in the Privacy sector. Although Privacy networks are newer entrants, we believe the network effects seen from the likes of BTC earlier on will be repeated within dominant coins here. Not only do these coins target the same large and lower velocity store of value market as BTC and Currencies, they present a much deeper value proposition within those markets. As we stated above, the largest drivers of adoption within these networks will be continued pressure from capital controls, currency devaluation, and broader global turmoil. The use cases within the Privacy markets are incredibly sticky and feed on adoption, especially when regulators and law enforcement are making efforts to increase forensic penetration into public networks like BTC. Privacy networks do lack liquidity when compared to more commonly used Currencies, but they excel in and push the extremes of each use case within Currency networks. Recently, we have already seen early signs of adoption by some of these cryptoassets; ransoms being posted to large corporations where even BTC could be tracked and was not the preferred method, money laundering, and asset shielding. Looking into the space, we believe the use cases that target the largest end-markets will primarily use XMR (~60%) and ZEC (~20%). Despite developers and executives associated with these projects declining to comment upon illegal use (to avoid legal ramifications), the largest opportunity within the Privacy networks will be unlawful activities. Considering the nature of the use cases, the Privacy market user base will most likely rely on networks that have more active codebase development, more resistance to centralized control (possibly through mining), a growing ecosystem, and growing user base. Not only is XMR far more active in codebase development (prior report, pg. 20) and resistant to centralized mining efforts, it is fungible. While ZEC has an easier time being traded in regulated markets (since it has privacy features by request, not by default), we believe this will be a setback to adoption by darker markets, which prefer networks that are fungible (where more addresses use privacy than those which do not, making it more difficult to track down/blacklist tainted addresses). Only ~5% of the ZEC network uses “shielded” (or private) addresses currently, with the rest of the addresses being used for transactions functionally and technically no different than BTC.

I remember reading that when it was first released (did you post it back then?). But was unsure then whether to put any credence into it or not. I find it hard to believe Dash will be in the green or even exist at that time. But then again I can't believe alot of shitcoin scams are still around. People never cease to amaze me. Smiley

After all, this recent bloodbath the price of Monero has resisted well. I remember that for some time it was similar to the LTC. Now it's double. Not that this comparison is worth anything, but it is a simple way to compare.

There was a great fall with the hunt the anonymous coins by the authorities of Asian countries. But in those two weeks besides resisting the falls still rises above average.

Monero is undoubtedly the only anonymous project. Still has several difficulties. But my theory is that some people are selling BTCs from their exchanges in an attempt to escape from KYC and to leave no trace they choose Monero.

This shows that eventually, monero will outperform other projects as the standard currency of those seeking freedom and privacy.

Monero took a big hit really early and has pretty much found it's floor I think, but in this space who knows???

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September 18, 2018, 07:31:37 AM
 #39384

We got close to ZEC price again in last days, but did not get ahead. I dont believe Monero was ever more expensive then ZEC so far.  This was sort of destined to happen because of the emission. Doubt many here speculated it will not happen this long. Any ideas when Monero will get more expensive then ZEC?

ZEC was pumped from before launch with insider trading on tokens before chain launch and has been artificially held up since. It will die a slow death but it will die as any non trustless system will.

According to that Satis report that's floating around, ZEC will do pretty well.


From their report all crypto currencies that act as a currency will do well. In general I think their report is pessimistic. 



After all, this recent bloodbath the price of Monero has resisted well. I remember that for some time it was similar to the LTC. Now it's double. Not that this comparison is worth anything, but it is a simple way to compare.

There was a great fall with the hunt the anonymous coins by the authorities of Asian countries. But in those two weeks besides resisting the falls still rises above average.

Monero is undoubtedly the only anonymous project. Still has several difficulties. But my theory is that some people are selling BTCs from their exchanges in an attempt to escape from KYC and to leave no trace they choose Monero.

This shows that eventually, monero will outperform other projects as the standard currency of those seeking freedom and privacy.

Litecoin got a great competitor in BCH. That for sure influenced LTC price.

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September 18, 2018, 07:40:47 AM
 #39385

After all, this recent bloodbath the price of Monero has resisted well. I remember that for some time it was similar to the LTC. Now it's double. Not that this comparison is worth anything, but it is a simple way to compare.

There was a great fall with the hunt the anonymous coins by the authorities of Asian countries. But in those two weeks besides resisting the falls still rises above average.

Monero is undoubtedly the only anonymous project. Still has several difficulties. But my theory is that some people are selling BTCs from their exchanges in an attempt to escape from KYC and to leave no trace they choose Monero.

This shows that eventually, monero will outperform other projects as the standard currency of those seeking freedom and privacy.

That is the real takeaway from everything I ever see about Monero, same as Bitcoin, the resistance to negativity. I agree we should not be looking at comparisons as they cannot predict the future outcome but we can learn about how strong Monero is in the face of bad developments and how quietly it always moves as it grows ever in adoption and use.

Absolutely people will choose Monero when they want a privacy coin. They can always go for ZEC, Dash, whatever,,, but in the end, you cannot beat XMR's acceptance.

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September 18, 2018, 09:42:09 AM
 #39386

If you like Monero, please consider donating something to Surae to support development: https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/90730/continued-funding-for-surae-for-another-quarter-september-october-november-2018

Side note for speculators: he's using a 71.88 USD/XMR baseline to be on the safe side during September, October and November

1 BTC = 1 BTC
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September 18, 2018, 12:40:59 PM
 #39387

If you like Monero, please consider donating something to Surae to support development: https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/90730/continued-funding-for-surae-for-another-quarter-september-october-november-2018

Side note for speculators: he's using a 71.88 USD/XMR baseline to be on the safe side during September, October and November

Is he still using this time to research Spectre?

I have serious reservations about that protocol but I forgot what they were. Doh

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September 18, 2018, 03:27:24 PM
 #39388

Is there any good estimation of when, in 2019, the inflation rate of XMR will become inferior to the inflation rate of BTC?
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September 18, 2018, 04:23:10 PM
 #39389

If you like Monero, please consider donating something to Surae to support development: https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/90730/continued-funding-for-surae-for-another-quarter-september-october-november-2018

Side note for speculators: he's using a 71.88 USD/XMR baseline to be on the safe side during September, October and November

Is he still using this time to research Spectre?

I have serious reservations about that protocol but I forgot what they were. Doh

Looks like he's on multisig & lightning now.

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September 18, 2018, 04:31:12 PM
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 #39390

Is there any good estimation of when, in 2019, the inflation rate of XMR will become inferior to the inflation rate of BTC?

I assume you are asking about the supply rate as it's impossible to foresee the inflation based on demand (or I should re-read Milton Friedman). In that case, here is the answer:




Note the supply rate will be similar from 2019 to 2027. You can read this very interesting reddit post to get more info: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/512kwh/useful_for_learning_about_monero_coin_emission/

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September 19, 2018, 05:19:00 AM
 #39391

Wow, when are we going to lift off again  Grin Cheesy

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September 19, 2018, 09:08:46 AM
 #39392

Is there any good estimation of when, in 2019, the inflation rate of XMR will become inferior to the inflation rate of BTC?

I assume you are asking about the supply rate as it's impossible to foresee the inflation based on demand (or I should re-read Milton Friedman). In that case, here is the answer:




Note the supply rate will be similar from 2019 to 2027. You can read this very interesting reddit post to get more info: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/512kwh/useful_for_learning_about_monero_coin_emission/
Thank you for the answer but, does someone has calculated what month of 2019 the crossing is expected to happen?
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September 19, 2018, 09:26:09 AM
Last edit: September 19, 2018, 09:39:09 AM by Febo
 #39393

Is there any good estimation of when, in 2019, the inflation rate of XMR will become inferior to the inflation rate of BTC?

You can look here. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit?usp=drive_web&ouid=105927644072070760779

It says in about a year.

2019 inflation should be around 4%
2020 inflation should be around 2.4%

While Bitcoins is 3.76%  in 2019 and not much less in 2020.

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September 19, 2018, 09:32:54 AM
 #39394

Is there any good estimation of when, in 2019, the inflation rate of XMR will become inferior to the inflation rate of BTC?

You can look here. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit?usp=drive_web&ouid=105927644072070760779

It already was once before Bitcoin halving for a short time.

It says in about a year.
I was just looking at this spreadsheet. Smiley
According to it daily inflation crossover will happen on 10 August 2019. I don't know if this table is take into account every variable there is, anyway interesting data too look at. Smiley

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September 19, 2018, 02:34:27 PM
 #39395

I think XMR's emission after all the coins have been mined will actually help in adoption, encourage a bit of spending and could have a wider distribution than BTC.

Pure deflation would encourage more hoarding, less spending and could even cause the economy to stagnate.

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September 19, 2018, 03:11:55 PM
 #39396

If you like Monero, please consider donating something to Surae to support development: https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/90730/continued-funding-for-surae-for-another-quarter-september-october-november-2018

Side note for speculators: he's using a 71.88 USD/XMR baseline to be on the safe side during September, October and November

Is he still using this time to research Spectre?

I have serious reservations about that protocol but I forgot what they were. Doh

Looks like he's on multisig & lightning now.

Thanks. Smiley

Is there any good estimation of when, in 2019, the inflation rate of XMR will become inferior to the inflation rate of BTC?

I assume you are asking about the supply rate as it's impossible to foresee the inflation based on demand (or I should re-read Milton Friedman). In that case, here is the answer:




Note the supply rate will be similar from 2019 to 2027. You can read this very interesting reddit post to get more info: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/512kwh/useful_for_learning_about_monero_coin_emission/
Thank you for the answer but, does someone has calculated what month of 2019 the crossing is expected to happen?

As Sprirali told you, "it's impossible to foresee the inflation based on demand" but there is a spreadsheet that rptiella made that was pretty accurate if you search this thread you may find it. IIRC Generalize This (don't remember exact spelling) had a copy.

Is there any good estimation of when, in 2019, the inflation rate of XMR will become inferior to the inflation rate of BTC?

You can look here. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit?usp=drive_web&ouid=105927644072070760779

It says in about a year.

2019 inflation should be around 4%
2020 inflation should be around 2.4%

While Bitcoins is 3.76%  in 2019 and not much less in 2020.

Great link, takes forever to load. Smiley

According to that spreadsheet this looks like the day. BTC emits 1800 and XMR Emits 1,798.04.

2019-07-26   
Code:
day 3891 17,510,400.00 1,800.00 12.5000 0.01028% 83.38% 1,577.14 day 1926 17,137,453.02 1,798.04 2.4973 0.01049% 92.90% 2019-07-26 3.01%
                  

adjusted from 2019-08-10 which was tagged in the sheet.

Code:
day 3906 17,537,400.00 1,800.00 12.5000 0.010264% 83.51% 1,577.14 day 1941 17,164,165.86 1,761.35 2.4463 0.010262% 93.05% 2019-08-10 Daily Inflation crossover date 2.95%


I think XMR's emission after all the coins have been mined will actually help in adoption, encourage a bit of spending and could have a wider distribution than BTC.

Pure deflation would encourage more hoarding, less spending and could even cause the economy to stagnate.

That was the idea and there was a large debate about it when the price first became depressed as rptiella led a group that wanted the emission curve changed to increase their holdings worth and to stop the addition of a tail emission.

Monero has always put utility above profit for investors and anyone holding should be proud of that.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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September 19, 2018, 03:15:15 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (5)
 #39397

I think XMR's emission after all the coins have been mined will actually help in adoption, encourage a bit of spending and could have a wider distribution than BTC.

Pure deflation would encourage more hoarding, less spending and could even cause the economy to stagnate.

Many are afraid of tail emission from wrong reason. And even from perspective of that reason they are wrong since in the next 10 years Monero will have lower inflation then Bitcoin.
Bitcoins inflation will be higher then of Monero from the year 2020 to 2025. After 2025, when Monero and Bitcoin inflation will even again, will Bitcoin slowly start realizing why Monero choose tail emission. It is not because of any economic reason but technical. Solving a problem that Bitcoin still need to solve.

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September 19, 2018, 03:22:03 PM
Merited by kurious (2), cAPSLOCK (1)
 #39398

I think XMR's emission after all the coins have been mined will actually help in adoption, encourage a bit of spending and could have a wider distribution than BTC.

Pure deflation would encourage more hoarding, less spending and could even cause the economy to stagnate.

Many are afraid of tail emission from wrong reason. And even from perspective of that reason they are wrong since in the next 10 years Monero will have lower inflation then Bitcoin.
Bitcoins inflation will be higher then of Monero from the year 2020 to 2025. After 2025, when Monero and Bitcoin inflation will even again, will Bitcoin slowly start realizing why Monero choose tail emission. It is not because of any economic reason but technical. Solving a problem that Bitcoin still need to solve.

Wish I had Merit left I owe you guys. Smiley

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September 19, 2018, 03:49:16 PM
 #39399

I think XMR's emission after all the coins have been mined will actually help in adoption, encourage a bit of spending and could have a wider distribution than BTC.

Pure deflation would encourage more hoarding, less spending and could even cause the economy to stagnate.

Many are afraid of tail emission from wrong reason. And even from perspective of that reason they are wrong since in the next 10 years Monero will have lower inflation then Bitcoin.
Bitcoins inflation will be higher then of Monero from the year 2020 to 2025. After 2025, when Monero and Bitcoin inflation will even again, will Bitcoin slowly start realizing why Monero choose tail emission. It is not because of any economic reason but technical. Solving a problem that Bitcoin still need to solve.

Wish I had Merit left I owe you guys. Smiley

I got you on that one.
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September 19, 2018, 08:17:54 PM
 #39400

My predicition for Mid September seems to got busted, so let's wait until mid of november  Shocked Cool Grin Cheesy

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