[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rangedriver]

XMR has gained 30%+ in a month. How high can it go? At the same time, DASH has gained 120 - 130%. Not a good news to me because I hold no DASH lol

Still...at least you have your self-respect.

Expect Monero to reach 0.005 sometime before April. Where it goes from there is dependent on development variables.

Still in effect.

1-week range (0.00097 - 0.0034) has a 38.2% retracement at 0.002525 and a maximum 50% retracement at 0.002212.

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[TPTB_need_war]

I suppose someone probably already posted this chart. I had never looked at the long-term Monero chart before:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/3QZ1D3nD-The-Monero-Bear-Market-Is-Over/

That is impressive. Monero has broken out of the down wedge, which is very technically bullish. But that doesn't mean it can't fall back first to the historic support at 0.0017 BTC. And if BTC falls to < $150 as I expect, then that could mean Monero declining significantly and still be in the bullish formation as Bitcoin makes its final bottom and we start a new bull market in crypto (I subscribe to the theory that BTC is still declining from 2013).

[TrueCryptonaire]

Volumes are dropping now in XMR, do you guys think the rocket will begin the countdown or does it need some more buying pressure?

[Quicken]

1-week range (0.00097 - 0.0034) has a 38.2% retracement at 0.002525 and a maximum 50% retracement at 0.002212.

Eh? The 1 week min on Polo is 0.00186.

[Drhiggins]

Volumes are dropping now in XMR, do you guys think the rocket will begin the countdown or does it need some more buying pressure?

Well I will be buying later this week once funds clear from Coin Base.  Slow ass Coin Base SMH.  I bought lots of XMR last year when the price was down at .25 -.45¢ US but it is still a great time to buy now as price is still very low.  Looks like the surge could not get past the 300 wall late Friday and early Saturday.   
 

[rangedriver]

1-week range (0.00097 - 0.0034) has a 38.2% retracement at 0.002525 and a maximum 50% retracement at 0.002212.

Eh? The 1 week min on Polo is 0.00186.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Volumes are dropping now in XMR, do you guys think the rocket will begin the countdown or does it need some more buying pressure?

Well I will be buying later this week once funds clear from Coin Base.  Slow ass Coin Base SMH.  I bought lots of XMR last year when the price was down at .25 -.45¢ US but it is still a great time to buy now as price is still very low.  Looks like the surge could not get past the 300 wall late Friday and early Saturday.  
 

I agree it is still cheap. In my opinion this year each XMR below 100 usd is worth picking.
Next year the target is obviously is different, the future of XMR looks so bright that I feel the pain of light rays in my eyes when I am gazing to the future of XMR.
I am doomed to see the future, unable to prevent it.

[ArticMine]

I suppose someone probably already posted this chart. I had never looked at the long-term Monero chart before:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/3QZ1D3nD-The-Monero-Bear-Market-Is-Over/

That is impressive. Monero has broken out of the down wedge, which is very technically bullish. But that doesn't mean it can't fall back first to the historic support at 0.0017 BTC. And if BTC falls to < $150 as I expect, then that could mean Monero declining significantly and still be in the bullish formation as Bitcoin makes its final bottom and we start a new bull market in crypto (I subscribe to the theory that BTC is still declining from 2013).

I do agree with the theory of a long term bear market in Bitcoin. I see this because of the following:
1) There is a widening chasm between the promise of Bitcoin,  a digital and fungible currency that can be used by anyone in the world to pay anyone in the world without the need of an intermediary and the reality a digital non fungible currency that can in practice only be used as a settlement layer between the intermediaries Bitcoin was supposed to replace under the promise.
2) The macro economic factors identified by Dent and Armstrong, namely a 30s type deflationary depression. What Dent got wrong is he failed to take into account the impact of the massive quantitative easing or money printing by the central banks since 2008. This would make a strong fiat currency such as USD attractive.

In the scenario above one would expect an overall bear market in crypto currency; however just as was the case during the 1930s with stocks there will be exceptions that buck the overall trend. Identifying the latter is where the real long term opportunities lie. Monero could very easily buck the trend since objectively it is very well placed to become the promise of Bitcoin. What this would point to for Monero is very strong long term prospects combined with extremely high short to medium term volatility and risk. My personal position is almost exclusively a combination of CAD and XMR with no debt. A convertible fiat other than USD can make sense where a person's expenses are denominated in that currency.

[aminorex]

I suspect that when the current BTC rise reverses, there may be more hedging inflows.  I don't think the BTC/USD correction is over yet.  Best support there seems to be 362-369 range.

I am deeply disappointed that the market did not take the short money.  It would have been such an easy win.

[jehst]

If it was just an unrelated pump and there is nothing at all behind it, we could see 100k again.

If XMR is on the move, you should be buying instead of reading. Any price starting with 0.00 is good.

I think it's an unrelated pump. It is no coincidence that XMR went up alongside NEM, ETH, MAIDSAFE, etc. All of those coins have something in common: they are predominantly traded on Poloniex. This run likely has little to do with XMR's properties. It has everything to do with where XMR is traded and the fact that XMR could go up easily. This is a "polo pump." Many polo-coins will take turns getting pumped until the money that is concentrated on polo flows back out of polo

Disclaimer: I've been wrong 1000 times.

[dEBRUYNE]

If it was just an unrelated pump and there is nothing at all behind it, we could see 100k again.

If XMR is on the move, you should be buying instead of reading. Any price starting with 0.00 is good.

I think it's an unrelated pump. It is no coincidence that XMR went up alongside NEM, ETH, MAIDSAFE, etc. All of those coins have something in common: they are predominantly traded on Poloniex. This run likely has little to do with XMR's properties. It has everything to do with where XMR is traded and the fact that XMR could go up easily. This is a "polo pump." Many polo-coins will take turns getting pumped until the money that is concentrated on polo flows back out of polo

Disclaimer: I've been wrong 1000 times.

I beg to differ regarding properties/fundamentals:

Did I look the price chart upside down . Anything significant happened to monero ?

An overview of what happened in the last few months:

What good news are you thinking of?  There are so many possible candidates that I don't even...

Trezor support     https://forum.getmonero.org/4/academic-and-technical/2495/experimental-trezor-firmware-testing
GUI Wallet under active development    https://github.com/mbg033/monero-core
Hard fork coming up to fix mixin 0 problem
Kovri under active development to fix IP address problem    https://github.com/monero-project/kovri
RingCT will be implemented sometime in 2016
Community funding of community / core projects totaling 62,788 XMR


Oh yeah, and of course, Monero a secure and fungible digital currency that can be used here and now

You forgot some things :-P

- Exodus integrating XMR (exodus.io)
- Multi-sig
- 2 minute block times which will improve security of the network

I am probably forgetting some myself too.

&

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48te0n/8_altcoin_by_market_cap/d0n584e?context=3


Furthermore, Monero has an adaptive blocksize limit (in combination with a tail emission) and is therefore not subject to any blocksize issue. See:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/45b8qn/my_journey_to_finding_monero_and_some_questions/czwlcdb

[dEBRUYNE]

I'm going with polo-pump. We'll see....

Even if that is the reason, the high volume and price increase probably attracted a lot of new awareness.

[jehst]

I'm going with polo-pump. We'll see....

Even if that is the reason, the high volume and price increase probably attracted a lot of new awareness.

I completely agree that all the XMR fundamentals are looking very good now.  I just don't think those fundamentals were the things that attracted all this money to XMR recently. I think ETH brought massive money onto polo and XMR is benefiting from the bleedover. This happened during the 2013 BTC bubbles where bitcoin brought money onto BTC-E and then LTC and PPC went up towards the end of the bitcoin bubbles. I believe the same thing just happened on polo with ETH and the smaller coins on polo.

I also agree that this is great for awareness of XMR. Many people were drawn into BTC just for the pump, but then they learned about BTC and began to believe in the idea of an independent money. The same thing could happen with XMR. People may come for the pump, but then stay for the fungibility.

[Bagatell]

@jehst FWIW

[Drhiggins]

So what can be expected in price jump once official GUI wallet is released later this year?  Just wondering what some of you all might think?  This is the only coin that has had this much development without an official GUI wallet.  I for one am glad that the dev team worked on the fundamentals first before the GUI wallet.  Hell because I like Monero so much I even donated to get the GUI wallet out. 

Still hoping to see some rise with official GUI wallet.  Any thoughts?

[TrueCryptonaire]

It might be so that there are people who will buy in once wallet is finished. It is also eadier to market non-crypto people when they have something "concrete".

[Rotator]

What are your predictions? How far can XMR goes?
Can we see 0.01 like Dash? What causing this fantastic price rise?

Please someone post how can i see XMR/BTC on bitcoinwisdom.
I didn't found myself, but saw few pages before in this topic.
link would be best.
Thanks.

[aminorex]

So what can be expected in price jump once official GUI wallet is released later this year? 

I would be pleasantly surprised if there was a speculative ramp on that issue.  I think it is more of a fundamental factor, as it opens up the currency to a new audience.  But keep in mind that it is a gating factor, not an impulse.  It enables but does not beckon.  As long as there is no PR or viral burst, any impact will be felt only slowly.

[lolikop]

What are your predictions? How far can XMR goes?
Can we see 0.01 like Dash? What causing this fantastic price rise?

Please someone post how can i see XMR/BTC on bitcoinwisdom.
I didn't found myself, but saw few pages before in this topic.
link would be best.
Thanks.

We will see 0.02 when the wallet is out

Here the wisdom link for xmr
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc

[jehst]

So what can be expected in price jump once official GUI wallet is released later this year?  Just wondering what some of you all might think?  This is the only coin that has had this much development without an official GUI wallet.  I for one am glad that the dev team worked on the fundamentals first before the GUI wallet.  Hell because I like Monero so much I even donated to get the GUI wallet out.  

Still hoping to see some rise with official GUI wallet.  Any thoughts?

The "official GUI wallet" has become this giant bogeyman. Is it the main reason why XMR's price is low? The main reason why it will be high? No, I think you guys are giving it far too much importance.

How many of the people buying Ethereum have attempted to download any of the ETH software? 10%? Hell, they were selling the stuff before the blockchain even went live. How many of the people buying XMR on polo have withdrawn their XMR? Probably 10%. Actually, 10% is generous. These "hot money" speculators don't care about the wallet.

An official wallet is nice, but it doesn't drive adoption. Platforms like Cryptokingdom, Monerodice, etc. are far more important for driving adoption than the official GUI wallet (especially when there are unofficial wallets that work very well)

In my opinion, .01 to .02 will happen when crypto as a whole has its next bubble. Then XMR goes along for the ride. The plan is to accumulate during periods of low interest and avoid buying when the price is hot.