[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

That was for cat 5.  The argument for cat 4 is:  

Dope.  

Dope, and capital controls.

Dope, capital controls and political activism.

....see, like the Spanish Inquisition, it creeps up on ya...

For that reason I assign the bulk of the probability mass to cat 4.  I am wont to call it 61.8%, because lulz.  Mayhap 420‰ of that is cannabic.

Again, bitcoin just won't cut it, not after the first execution in Hangzhou stadium for the economic crime of sending funds to Chile for the son's college tuition and a nice retirement hacienda.

It is because of 4 that 5 subsequently becomes feasible.  Otherwise, the liquidity hurdle would be, like the rent around here, just too damn high.

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[kurious]

Every now and again Aminorex, you post some words of inspirational wisdom that make my day.

[macsga]

In other news the wall has stood all day today and has now moved down to 190k. I know we all love the "whale manipulation"/"whale wants to buy lower" etc angles but this is just a whale exit IMO (too bad!)

That's after moving up from 180 to 200.  I hear it was at 170 last night/morning.  I guess that's how my bid got filled while I was sleeping last night.  Doesn't quite sound like an exit.

Please move it down again.  

FYI: I don't think this is the first time on this small rally of ours. I personally ate a couple of those (on my loss) twice. I'd say if he's desperate to get out, then by all means let him drive the price lower... 

[dEBRUYNE]

In other news the wall has stood all day today and has now moved down to 190k. I know we all love the "whale manipulation"/"whale wants to buy lower" etc angles but this is just a whale exit IMO (too bad!)

I reasonably doubt that he is trying to exit. Every time a small part of his wall gets eaten it moves back up. I am far more certain he is just playing around with it currently.

[hdbuck]

In other news the wall has stood all day today and has now moved down to 190k. I know we all love the "whale manipulation"/"whale wants to buy lower" etc angles but this is just a whale exit IMO (too bad!)

I reasonably doubt that he is trying to exit. Every time a small part of his wall gets eaten it moves back up. I am far more certain he is just playing around with it currently.

he moves it back up to 'hope' to get a better price for his stack.. the guy probably got burned alot.

[dEBRUYNE]

In other news the wall has stood all day today and has now moved down to 190k. I know we all love the "whale manipulation"/"whale wants to buy lower" etc angles but this is just a whale exit IMO (too bad!)

I reasonably doubt that he is trying to exit. Every time a small part of his wall gets eaten it moves back up. I am far more certain he is just playing around with it currently.

he moves it back up to 'hope' to get a better price for his stack.. the guy probably got burned alot.

If he genuinely wanted to sell, he would use smaller increments. On the other hand, who knows what the hell his intention is.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The part about wealthy people wanting to store their money without being tracked is probably true.

The other side of the coin is when a wealthy person looks at monero they probably see a new technology that needs to stand the test of time.

The third thing is, they see the marketcap of Monero and begin to laugh.
If your networth is more than the marketcap of the coin, why on earth you should put (most or all of) your money into it?

Because some high networth individuals possess Ivy League caliber intellects and see where this (morally hazardous) NIRP trend is going.

EG the Winklevoss bros buying BTC at $30.

Oh wait, smoothie didn't say anything about putting "most or all" of their money into crypto.  That was just your strawman version of his posts.  My bad.

If I am thinking purely on storing wealth over time, which is one of the attribute of money in economics, I may not choose a currency that has lower market cap than my own networth since I would not want to be the person driving the price up (at least all alone).
The minimum market cap for a store of wealth in my estimation is 100 times my networth. Prefertably more higher.

Nobody said one should be all in Monero. It is quite rare that a person is all in some asset (usually fiat money hands do not solely own a Fiat only but stocks, mutual fund shares, treasury notes etc. in addition to cash).

[nioc]

In other news the wall has stood all day today and has now moved down to 190k. I know we all love the "whale manipulation"/"whale wants to buy lower" etc angles but this is just a whale exit IMO (too bad!)

I reasonably doubt that he is trying to exit. Every time a small part of his wall gets eaten it moves back up. I am far more certain he is just playing around with it currently.

he moves it back up to 'hope' to get a better price for his stack.. the guy probably got burned alot.

Nice that the most maximalist bitcoiner has visited us.

Wall back up to 200.

Once more I bought the dip while sleeping.

My wild cat has just sat on my lap.  Must keep her away from keyboardddddddddddddddddddddd

[jehst]

That was for cat 5.  The argument for cat 4 is:  

Dope.  

Dope, and capital controls.

Dope, capital controls and political activism.

....see, like the Spanish Inquisition, it creeps up on ya...

For that reason I assign the bulk of the probability mass to cat 4.  I am wont to call it 61.8%, because lulz.  Mayhap 420‰ of that is cannabic.

Again, bitcoin just won't cut it, not after the first execution in Hangzhou stadium for the economic crime of sending funds to Chile for the son's college tuition and a nice retirement hacienda.

It is because of 4 that 5 subsequently becomes feasible.  Otherwise, the liquidity hurdle would be, like the rent around here, just too damn high.

i certainly like your odds better

[papa_lazzarou]

Maybe we will get to have a tale of our own

[sadasa]

In other news the wall has stood all day today and has now moved down to 190k. I know we all love the "whale manipulation"/"whale wants to buy lower" etc angles but this is just a whale exit IMO (too bad!)

I reasonably doubt that he is trying to exit. Every time a small part of his wall gets eaten it moves back up. I am far more certain he is just playing around with it currently.

he moves it back up to 'hope' to get a better price for his stack.. the guy probably got burned alot.

If he genuinely wanted to sell, he would use smaller increments.

Do we know who the whales are? It seems the Ethereum market price is manipulated by those people effectively.

[luigi1111]

Trying to think of a good ring signature analogy but my head hurts right now...

Ring signatures give rise to an event horizon, so that no information about your transaction can escape to be observed.  Your private key adds an extra dimension, allowing the key holder to view the naked singularity powering each XMR wallet, and observe the transactions it contains.  A view key adds a wormhole into the event horizon from ordinary 4-spacetime.

And now we have gone from "speculation" to "cloud cuckoo land".

If I find anyone who is unclear on ring signatures conceptually, I'll simply direct them to this post. They will then leave fully enlightened by this most excellent elucidation.

 

[Melbustus]

In other news the wall has stood all day today and has now moved down to 190k. I know we all love the "whale manipulation"/"whale wants to buy lower" etc angles but this is just a whale exit IMO (too bad!)

I reasonably doubt that he is trying to exit. Every time a small part of his wall gets eaten it moves back up. I am far more certain he is just playing around with it currently.

he moves it back up to 'hope' to get a better price for his stack.. the guy probably got burned alot.

Nice that the most maximalist bitcoiner has visited us.

...

There are a few longtime bitcoin maximalists in this thread.

[dEBRUYNE]

The wall seems to be removed (for now). Ask side looks rather flat without it. Also, 4H MACD is bound to flip.

[slapper]

The wall seems to be removed (for now). Ask side looks rather flat without it.

Thank you Risto.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The wall seems to be removed (for now). Ask side looks rather flat without it. Also, 4H MACD is bound to flip.

Might be a sign that the price starts to climb up as Risto has accumulated the coins he sold over 0.002.

[americanpegasus]

I want to tell you guys something, and should write down this feeling before I forget it entirely: being a Bitcoin maximalist, when you first encounter Monero it does indeed appear to be 'just another alt coin'.  I took a monthly tour of altcoins, hungry, but always skeptical.  
  
"Look, that one popped up 30%!" I chided myself looking at charts.  "Meanwhile Bitcoins continue to stagnate in the 200s".  
  
"Popped on what?," I counter chided myself.  "Leprechauns and bullshit?"  
  
This was what led me to look into these other coins, and do some due diligence on the top list on Coinmarketcap.  I wanted to be able to say with confidence that numbers 2 - 20 were total bullshit and the only valid option was Bitcoin.  Perhaps I was gearing up for an anti-altcoin crusade.  
  
I have found with all things, including investing and love, we must keep 10% - 20% of our willpower focused on that awful possibility - 'what if I'm wrong?', no matter how convinced we may be.  
  
So I dug through all the flaws with Proof of Stake, heard about Dash/Darkcoin's convoluted master-node scheme and scoffed, and gave incredulous glares at Bitcoin copy/paste jobs with some random feature tacked on.  
  
Here's another powerful truism: the truth is usually pretty elegant, considering what it represents.  And Monero is the most elegant of altcoins, aside from Bitcoin itself.  It takes the idea of a blockchain and extends it by one key concept - ring signatures.  Now, those might be intricate, but the abstraction of what has been done is not.  There is no convoluted and scammy 'staking' and IPO to consider.  It's simple, clean, elegant mathematics.

So my bullshit detectors went off, especially watching the sinking stone price.  I found their subreddit and (even though the necessity and advantages of protocol level privacy hadn't occurred to me yet), I made a post inviting them to prove they weren't a waste of time.  My slightly accusatory tone was met with no return scorn.  Instead, I got a series of open and friendly responses explaining exactly what Monero was, and promising nothing magical - just the most honest and advanced cryptocurrency project on the planet.  
  
Now I had some self-skepticism to wrestle with: "What are the chances you have actually found the next big thing, ahead of all others?  There's only 1600 people on this subreddit!"  But my cross examination of this cryptocurrency could produce no flaws - if Bitcoin was good, this was better.  This was an order of magnitude better, and though the history of it was convoluted as hell, it was still a fair launch with no clear shenanigans.  
  
Thus, I went from first hearing about Monero to becoming a Monero maximalist in the span of only a few days.  One of my exes once said that she has to predict early when I will get excited about something, and head it off early before my gears kicked in and I got obsessed about it.  She was referring to infatuation with some big ticket item at the store, but the same principles are at play here.  Looking back, during my loudest Bitcoin days, there were always a few anons poking me, subtly challenging my notions that nothing could ever equal or surpass Bitcoin.  To them I owe thanks as well, for sure.  
  
Anyway, I maintain that our civilization will need at least one global and public blockchain.  Bitcoin enables applications and structures that Monero cannot, so I don't think it will go to zero.  But I also now wonder if Bitcoin will always be the #1 cryptocurrency.  To those just learning about Monero I have to present them with the same risks and warnings I faced - this may fail entirely.  Nevertheless, personally?  Unless cryptography itself fails I see no other outcome: Monero slowly works it's way up to dominating finance around the globe by 2030.  
  
I once wrote that Bitcoin is a financial virus that will slowly consume all value on Earth.  Unfortunately, Monero is a better virus.

[dEBRUYNE]

Wall is back again :-P

[nioc]

In other news the wall has stood all day today and has now moved down to 190k. I know we all love the "whale manipulation"/"whale wants to buy lower" etc angles but this is just a whale exit IMO (too bad!)

I reasonably doubt that he is trying to exit. Every time a small part of his wall gets eaten it moves back up. I am far more certain he is just playing around with it currently.

he moves it back up to 'hope' to get a better price for his stack.. the guy probably got burned alot.

Nice that the most maximalist bitcoiner has visited us.

...

There are a few longtime bitcoin maximalists in this thread.

I have appreciated your long time participation in Monero threads.  Insightful questions and posts without drinking anybody's koolaid.

[hitchingAride]

yes already also it's a closer wall. The selling price of the wall is lower