[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ArticMine]

So what happened to the 100K sell wall at 180, did it move back to 200?

[Bicmac1973]

This is probably a bear trap that makes people earger to sell, or a whale really looking for a coin redistribution. Still there are open short positions so more dumping is needed to cover those unles the covering will be done via margin call.

Err, why is dumping required to cover the shorts? When shorts are covered, they shoud dump to the north, right?

[dEBRUYNE]

This is probably a bear trap that makes people earger to sell, or a whale really looking for a coin redistribution. Still there are open short positions so more dumping is needed to cover those unles the covering will be done via margin call.

Err, why is dumping required to cover the shorts? When shorts are covered, they shoud dump to the north, right?

Yeah, they have to either to set a bid to close their short or do a market buy.

EDIT: 165-170k still seems to hold. A quick drop below it isn't problematic, as long as the candle closes above again.

[macsga]

That 100k XMR wall blasts my mind. Either someone is desperate, or distributing... I really have to see how we pass that 20000 mark. 

[klee]

That 100k XMR wall blasts my mind. Either someone is desperate, or distributing... I really have to see how we pass that 20000 mark. 

Anyone noticed something weird? It is visible at Polo order book but not at bitcoinwisdom!

 

[medusa13]

no matter how i think about it, the owner of the 100k wall wants to have more xmr when his trade is finished.
he uses the wall to cap price while closing his short position is my best guess...

if he wants to sell he is clearly doing it wrong.

imgaine, he would do it the completely other way around ih he wants to sell, push bids and NOT asks!
he seems to be overall long, i dont have any other explanation to it.

btw bitcoinwisdom has many bugs...

[rpietila]

That 100k XMR wall blasts my mind. Either someone is desperate, or distributing... I really have to see how we pass that 20000 mark. 

Hmm... I like XMR but don't know if there are yet many others who appreciate it. If I buy more, need to make sure I am not overpaying. The wall is capping my buy prices to a level that is sure to be cheap enough. If others bite into it (or swallow it whole, which is not the intention yet at the same time not an undesirable outcome), it is a sign that XMR is taking off and my remaining position (about 4x the size of the wall) will soon be much more valuable and the next sell zone will be many times the current price.

[macsga]

That 100k XMR wall blasts my mind. Either someone is desperate, or distributing... I really have to see how we pass that 20000 mark. 

Hmm... I like XMR but don't know if there are yet many others who appreciate it. If I buy more, need to make sure I am not overpaying. The wall is capping my buy prices to a level that is sure to be cheap enough. If others bite into it (or swallow it whole, which is not the intention yet at the same time not an undesirable outcome), it is a sign that XMR is taking off and my remaining position (about 4x the size of the wall) will soon be much more valuable and the next sell zone will be many times the current price.

Well, yeah. OR that ^^^ 

[rpietila]

Well, yeah. OR that ^^^  

The whales always win. Up=good. Down= good. Even if the whole position turns sour, they just write it off and continue.

I know because I have so far made 2 successes in 15 years and way more have turned sour. (XMR/CK still going on)

CK has looked good all the time:

May we present: the best performing asset in "alt-space" in 2015:

[hitchingAride]

Looks like the big 100k wall is still up. We've lost some ground with xmr but still have maintained most of the gains I think if Bitcoin goes down a few $$ instead of the recent uptrend it could help xmrs price. And I'm not sure what the motive of the sell wall is... Maybe that whale is going short or trying to shake out some weak hands before buying xmr again.

[TrueCryptonaire]

A shocking fact to me is, how easy it has been to convince people that:

- Monero is now in the situation where Bitcoin was in 2010
- Monero fixes Bitcoin's worst flaw, lack of privacy.

People who have never owned Bitcoin are flocking into Monero starting about now. I am helping them by accepting fiat as payment.

Very generous of you.  

[anri]

Nnngh.. those bbands getting tighter. Itching for some action. 

[Xtrata]

no matter how i think about it, the owner of the 100k wall wants to have more xmr when his trade is finished.
he uses the wall to cap price while closing his short position is my best guess...

if he wants to sell he is clearly doing it wrong.

imgaine, he would do it the completely other way around ih he wants to sell, push bids and NOT asks!
he seems to be overall long, i dont have any other explanation to it.

btw bitcoinwisdom has many bugs...

Agreed, this is a person/s that wants more XMR, otherwise we wouldnt have this price right now. + the 190 BTC sellwall moves up and down to adjust the price.

[hiddensphinx]

since it is impossible to do a rich list because of moneros privacy

is there any other way finding out how many other potential walls exist apart from the obvious distribution chart Bittrex does?

[aminorex]

any other way finding out how many other potential walls exist

Rpietila did a reasoned analysis about 18 months ago.  You can scan his post history.

In other news, palladium is way cheap under 500 USD.

[aminorex]

Some people don't like it when I'm overly pragmatic, but I think it's important that you understand the scenarios.

• The most likely scenario is that Monero fails entirely, due to lack of funding / a major break in Curve25519 or some other cryptography / general apathy towards financial privacy.
• The second-most-likely scenario is that Monero never has a meteoric rise in value because it has no fixed emission (from 2023 onwards it becomes slightly disinflationary, <1% inflation a year) and it never achieves more than niche usage.
• A less likely scenario is that Monero does have a meteoric rise in value, not due to artificially limited emission, but due to some uptake in its use (ie. it is priced based on utility, not based on artificial scarcity).
• Perhaps the least likely (at this stage anyway) is that Bitcoin flounders and collapses at a time when Monero has achieved a degree of maturity in its development, and there is an in-rush of former Bitcoin holders (well, those whose FOMO is greater than their fear that the tail emission will never make them "rich").

Given these scenarios, if you have limited funds I would advise that you DON'T buy any Monero. If you are not comfortable with the massive risk you are taking, then DON'T buy Monero. If you want to play around with Monero then DO buy a very small amount (I assume $10 wouldn't be too much of a hit).

I endorse the advice, but must disagree with the implied case distribution estimate.   ( It is good and proper for FP, in his role, to emphasize these risks, however. )

Funding has always been tight, but even abandonment would be survivable because open source.  I know for a fact that baton will never lie on the ground for two seconds in a row. 

The curve, well... I ascribe negligible probability. Implementation bugs certainly.  The math, not so much.  (Of course a quantum resistant development plan would be a responsible necessity. )

Has financial privacy ever been a greater concern for wealth holders?  Is it likely to become less of a concern?  Guess what I think.  I dare you.  If you disagree, try reading financial news some time.

I consider the resistance to volatility an asset.  Without it, we might have much more wealth concentration, pressing fair distribution concerns.

Would you guys, even though this is the speculation thread, be interested in some (daily) crossposts of salient reddit posts? I'll try to format them together in one post if interested.

Yes but it would be improper here.  On-topic moderation is in effect, and should be just, blind.

[wpalczynski]

Some people don't like it when I'm overly pragmatic, but I think it's important that you understand the scenarios.

• The most likely scenario is that Monero fails entirely, due to lack of funding / a major break in Curve25519 or some other cryptography / general apathy towards financial privacy.
• The second-most-likely scenario is that Monero never has a meteoric rise in value because it has no fixed emission (from 2023 onwards it becomes slightly disinflationary, <1% inflation a year) and it never achieves more than niche usage.
• A less likely scenario is that Monero does have a meteoric rise in value, not due to artificially limited emission, but due to some uptake in its use (ie. it is priced based on utility, not based on artificial scarcity).
• Perhaps the least likely (at this stage anyway) is that Bitcoin flounders and collapses at a time when Monero has achieved a degree of maturity in its development, and there is an in-rush of former Bitcoin holders (well, those whose FOMO is greater than their fear that the tail emission will never make them "rich").

Given these scenarios, if you have limited funds I would advise that you DON'T buy any Monero. If you are not comfortable with the massive risk you are taking, then DON'T buy Monero. If you want to play around with Monero then DO buy a very small amount (I assume $10 wouldn't be too much of a hit).

I endorse the advice, but must disagree with the implied case distribution estimate.   ( It is good and proper for FP, in his role, to emphasize these risks, however. )

Funding has always been tight, but even abandonment would be survivable because open source.  The curve, well... I ascribe negligible probability.  Has financial privacy ever been a greater concern for wealth holders?  Is it likely to become less of a concern?  Guess what I think.  I dare you.

I consider the resistance to volatility an asset.  Without it, we might have much more wealth concentration, pressing fair distribution concerns.

Would you guys, even though this is the speculation thread, be interested in some (daily) crossposts of salient reddit posts? I'll try to format them together in one post if interested.

Yes but it would be improper here.  On-topic moderation is in effect, and should be just, blind.

Its so absurd how many trolls constantly lie about how the xmr devs pump the price when the opposite has always been true.

[americanpegasus]

Large price rises can be helpful, because they enable you to say things like "I just turned $13,000 into $25,000 over the weekend."  
  
That gets people's attention.

As well, we have great graphics than can help illustrate why Monero is going to be a very big deal in the future. Of note is the professional chart showing how Monero is essentially the holy grail of money. (https://i.imgur.com/E3KA0Ug)

I've been talking about crypto relentlessly for years now, and I know I've likely annoyed the hell out of some people, but enthusiasm is contagious: if you believe in Monero like I do, you need to have it too. Your enthusiasm needs to be so bright that it inspires others to want to talk about it too - that's how a movement is created.

Monero might be a very real thing, and it might be one of the greatest technological advancements in the history of our civilization, but if people don't know about it... It is meaningless. The problem we face is that Cryptonote is so intricate that it becomes a challenge to express to the average person why this matters in their life.

But it is possible. More than ever, citizens everywhere are excited about money and rethinking ways to get involved with it. I hear more stock market 'watercooler chat' now than I've heard since 2007. We need to recognize that this is not some obscure nerd toy - you have the extreme fortune of being involved with one of the largest financial networks on Earth before anyone else knows about it. Don't keep that secret to yourself!

There are a lot of great arguments to help the average person understand why this is important: "Don't you think the average wealthy individual will be interested in a secure and private financial network that lets them store their wealth where no one can touch it or track them?", "If the smartest people in the world didn't think this was possible 20 years ago, don't you think there is likely a lot of powerful interests carefully considering how to best use this powerful invention?", "People thought Bitcoin was foolish too, but it entered 2013 at $15 each and ended 2013 at $750 each", etc.

In fact, a few people have even expressed interest in owning some Monero. Of course they have gotten the standard warnings: "I'll help you, but realize this is extremely risky, and you may lose every cent you put in...." But they seem to understand the risks and want to play.

Maybe we will all lose our money, and maybe not. It's a risk, and risks are necessary in the financial world to grow. I know this though: there are few, if any, more pure and honest economic projects out there than this. The fact that it just might have the largest growth potential of any asset in the world is icing on the cake.

Don't promise people the moon: you can't promise them that. Promise them a chance to be part of the initial cadre of what may become the future financial Internet, because that is an honest statement. Let your excitement be so virulent that others catch it too. We are, whether we realize it or not, by virtue or circumstance, one of the most important people on Earth.

Let's act like it.

[aminorex]

Large price rises can be helpful, because they enable you to say things like "I just turned $13,000 into $25,000 over the weekend."  
  
That gets people's attention.

As you suggest elsewhere, it can lead to a greed delusion.  I prefer to observe that XMR rose 4x in 15 months before dropping back to the 3x level.  It seems somewhat more sustainable (because it is) and less frothy, appeals more to the fiscally conservative center which dominates outside of casinos and bucket shops.

I do think that XMR will benefit more from slow,cold money than hot,fast money, which just adds too much vol, undermining the currency case.

[meme magic]

Anyone else take a hit from rolling over eth into xmr above .002?

Emotional support needed: I could have had so much more, but I'm okay with what I got.

Plus another paycheck comes in 8 days.

Judging by the size of the walls that were seen, whales not done buying for quite some time.

It can be very risky putting whole percentages out on the order book like that..