[XMR] Monero Speculation

[mfqrs3]

Nice one. So the trend is now set to UP, I'm gona rethink shorting as when all this lies and fud comes to light it will get back to previous levels very quick.

It will be interesting to watch, how much time it will take for people who dumped, to realise that they were scammed and want their coins back

[Anon136]

I call it the CoinTelegraph-Bytecoin-DASH axis of lies and disinformation.

Really? They are just going to throw away what little reputation the have left for that? For what? The accusations wont kill monero because they aren't true but it certainly will destroy all of what it left of cointelegraphs reputation.

[tifozi]

Not sure why DASH troll is getting any attention at all. Good for N-rG I guess   but if he decides (or someone like him) to open another short and posts here for 10 pages repeatedly post after post, then it will go down again and you can swim with him and take advantage if you like.

Even @rangedriver has been upended. The only thing right about any price prediction is that everyone is wrong, I said this a long time ago. Charts are just an arsenal in these guys pockets to take advantage of the noobs.

You have big holders announcing that they sold 200K + coins and the blame is wrongly and swiftly going to a troll that no one is XMR cared about to begin with. You have regulars posting with alt IDs about lies and gloom (and declaring that they are lying) and blame goes to DASH trolls? haha what a smooth operation. 

[TrueCryptonaire]

Well my bot made some good shots so I own now thousands of cheap XMR's hehe  
The Campaign is over. For me it wont drop further, the bottom is made. And if it drops, i keep now bagholding.

First of all: I don't trade, but do speculate now and then.

From experience, maximum pain needs to be reached before going up again. We are not there yet IMHO, this could take weeks / months before a true bottom is reached. Especially when BTC starts to see some upward momentum at the same time.

Agreed. We haven't reached the "desperation" stage. You can identify that when people start making angry posts accusing Monero of being a scam, saying they lost all their money, etc. I think the trend will be negative until the release of RingCT in January. Even then, I don't think we'll see serious growth until the end of 2017. There's still a lot that needs to be done for Monero to be considered user friendly. In addition to user friendliness concerns, the coin emission is still quite high, about 7500 coins a day.

I remember I used to be very worried about the coin emission in 2014 and 2015 each time I was buying myself. And my worry back then was legitimate, it indeed increased the probability of the death of Monero. Now that issue is solved/solving day by day.
I think the emission is now fine and it is declining day by day. Given the current volumes even on the slowest days I think the emission is simply a drop in the ocean + a lot of smaller miners get only dust for their coins and therefore probably will not bother even to transfer those to the exchanges. That's the beauty of decentrilized coin like Monero: miners need so high price for the coin that is pays them off to move them (assuming no single entity owns a significiant part of network hash).

That being said, I have bids in the markets at prices I am willing to increase my stack just in case there are more sellers.
A lot of short positions are opened at the bottomish prices.
Currently there are only around 108 000 XMR in the Lending markets (used to be close to 300 000) which is a clear indication of increased buying pressure.
If the price goes down due to massive short positions, it is something one do not need to worry that much IMO. A shorter today is a buyer tomorrow. If Risto or someone whale like him comes here to proclaim: I dumped my Moneros, then I would be more worried.
Warz selling either is not something that I am worried despite the fact that he as a Norwegian plays with millions of dollars. Warz has always bought back at some point AFAIK.
My stand is bagholding from the beginning of 2016 because this year is the first year we can see some real growth, and I think the growth might accelerate because the emission is getting so tight and inflation is now at relatively reasonable level (bear in mind, only 5.5 million coins until the minimum block reward hits and the inflation is even lower than the inflation of euro).

[BTKC]

enlightening post by amoebatron:

You can blame /u/thedesertlynx who is an instrument of the Dash corporation.

I would imagine that the Dash corporation's investors were ruffled after Monero ascended them on the marketcap, and because Dash is driven by profit rather than socio-political ambitions, it acted much like any other corporation would do to try and take out the competition.

Joel Valenzuela (thedesertlynx) has often worked simultaneously for Dash and CoinTelegraph in crafting well-written pieces of FUD against Monero, that utilize subtle attempts at covert hypnosis along with mild neuro-linguistic programming.

It was /u/thedesertlynx who was recently responsible for perpetuating the meme that Monero's community held a poor reputation.

It was also /u/thedesertlynx who wrote a similar article on CoinTelegraph that purported to illustrate that "investors were scrambling to get out of Monero!" and that the entire project was a sinking ship.

Anyone with a genuine understanding of the socio-political variables that surround the cryptocurrency movement would surely be scratching their heads at how someone who claims to be a New Hampshire libertarian would choose self-serving immediate profit, rather than helping to lay down the fundamentals of a genuinely disruptive movement.

We saw the same thing with Amanda B Johnson. So much potential to globally expand libertarianism, and in the end they choose the immediate profits of corporate employment, rather than taking the path of most resistance and helping the community to build something amazing.

Monero has always been a fragile being. It is surrounded by dystopian antagonists at every turn, whether that be the Dash Corporation, the ZCash-hype sponsored by a foreign government, or the Bitcoin monolithic all-seeing blockchain that in its current form tiptoes toward a form of global egalitarianism where privacy does not exist for anyone.

It is always a catastrophic shame when a powerful corporation or a powerful country goes to war against a barebones civilian population, or in the case of Monero, a community of volunteers, cryptographers, and political activists.

But it is a devastation, when someone who professes to be politically active and is demonstrably intelligent, instead chooses a questionable path that would appear to run counter to the politics they exclaim.

Still.

Desite the FUD, Monero will succeed regardless. Because that's what we do, and that's what we always have done.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/560yem/whats_up_with_this_recent_influx_of_fud_and/?st=itxknast&sh=b9d54f4d

I call it the CoinTelegraph-Bytecoin-DASH axis of lies and disinformation.

What a load of FUD. I bought more today.. Will it go down even more from here? Who knows. But long term i think this is a fine place to buy.. Just like i did when it was 10x lower

[rangedriver]

Even @rangedriver has been upended.

Stay tuned.

[vlom]

I wonder where everyone that is abandoning Monero right now will move their coins.
Will they just sit on Bitcoin, or invest in another alt?
There might be some good investment opportunity if everyone decides to go in the same direction with the funds they cashed out of XMR.

i know this is off topic. but i think it is a good time to buy lisk. price is low and soon there will be an update that brings forging. after this release the price will rise to 4500 sats and more.

[bbc.reporter]

Really insane volumes on poloniex, more than 10% of the total supply during 24 hours, why?

Many people prefer to use them because they can handle the volume. Also there is margin trading there so I there are many traders and speculators are shorting XMR over there right now.

[kurious]

Time for a whale or two to see this as time to close shorts and get back in..?

[nanobrain]

Support seems to be building and rather than fib levels, the psychological .01 mark seems to have come into play and energised buyers.

The herd has stopped stampeding and is now looking around befuddled, unaware as to what the next direction should be.  Market makers required, FUDsters need to shut up, devs need to release some positive news.  

I certainly don't know what's going to happen in the next 24 hours but am hoping for a consolidation around .0116 - .012

[TrueCryptonaire]

I don't see it impossible to reach new ATH with next leg..   

[adolf512]

I think i want to invest more in xmr now(i want more than 470XMR), the price is still good but i am almost out of bitcoins and easily accessible fiat. My guess is that 1 of the following will happen
-bullmarket again up to at least 0.02
-price diving down again far below 0.01, this is unlikely since a lot of people are willing to buy below that level.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think i want to invest more in xmr now(i want more than 470XMR), the price is still good but i am almost out of bitcoins and fiat(except on an account not easily accessible for me). My guess is that 1 of the following will happen
-bullmarket again up to at least 0.02
-price diving down again far below 0.01, this is unlikely since a lot of people are willing to buy below that level.

Yes it is very likely that there will be action. Monero just do not want to be stable (at least for long period). Stability will be reached when the price will be something like 10 000 usd or more because then there will be quite large community of bagholders and wannabe-bagholders who will defend the price.

[Shiroslullaby]

A lot of the drop was caused by FUD.

Joel Valenzuela (aka thedesertlynx) is actually so fucking disgusting.
How can you present yourself as a journalist when you are so clearly biased?
Half of his posts/ articles are about how great dash is, the other half are about how terrible every other coin is.
Anyone who takes this shill or anything posted on CoinTelegraph seriously is fucking retarded.

[kurious]

I don't see it impossible to reach new ATH with next leg..   

IMO We will not see an assault on the ATH just yet...  I think that was the bottom (a shade under 0.1) as it was on large volume and there is obvious support at that psychological level.  I did think it would.

Very short term - we need to get over 0.0124 and then a run to 0.018 is possible - maybe even a touch under 0.02.  I do not expect to see anything like ATH without massive news or BTC collapse (both unlikely) before December.

If it is to come, and you're after my rash guess FWIW:  the next big rally to way over 0.02 will be spring 2017 - I am (wildly) guessing late Feb, early March...    GUI will bring in confidence, Soon™ - but I will be happy to see us price-finding around the 0.16 - 0.018 before too long - as long as BTC isn't primed for a HUGE leap up, which it does look it's due at some point before year end.  But then USD value will hold up as more interest in crypto comes and BTC profits are spread a little into the BEST cryptos to hedge BTC drop back.

Removing BTC variable - my gut feeling is the year end will see us still way under ATH - but happily up from here. We have survived a perfect storm of FUD, post price-hike pessimism and whale manipulation of a relatively small-cap coin when when old hands were already 'all in' and new FOMO blood was skittish with what it had just got into.

Awareness is good - so for me, growth from here at way under the ATH is now looking a given.

I think I will stop sticking my neck out now

[N-rG]

A lot of the drop was caused by FUD.

Joel Valenzuela (aka thedesertlynx) is actually so fucking disgusting.
How can you present yourself as a journalist when you are so clearly biased?
Half of his posts/ articles are about how great dash is, the other half are about how terrible every other coin is.
Anyone who takes this shill or anything posted on CoinTelegraph seriously is fucking retarded.

Well I already saw a vendor yesterday announcing on Alphabay a fundwhere other vendors can join and pay to hire an assassin for Joel Valenzuela cause he lost with his escrow 15% due to Joel. Never try to fu** DNM vendors with FUD

[nanobrain]

I don't see it impossible to reach new ATH with next leg..   

IMO We will not see an assault on the ATH just yet...  I think that was the bottom (a shade under 0.1) as it was on large volume and there is obvious support at that psychological level.  I did think it would.

Very short term - we need to get over 0.0124 and then a run to 0.018 is possible - maybe even a touch under 0.02.  I do not expect to see anything like ATH without massive news or BTC collapse (both unlikely) before December.

If it is to come, and you're after my rash guess FWIW:  the next big rally to way over 0.02 will be spring 2017 - I am (wildly) guessing late Feb, early March...    GUI will bring in confidence, Soon™ - but I will be happy to see us price-finding around the 0.16 - 0.018 before too long - as long as BTC isn't primed for a HUGE leap up, which it does look it's due at some point before year end.  But then USD value will hold up as more interest in crypto comes and BTC profits are spread a little into the BEST cryptos to hedge BTC drop back.

Removing BTC variable - my gut feeling is the year end will see us still way under ATH - but happily up from here. We have survived a perfect storm of FUD, post price-hike pessimism and whale manipulation of a relatively small-cap coin when when old hands were already 'all in' and new FOMO blood was skittish with what it had just got into.

Awareness is good - so for me, growth from here at way under the ATH is now looking a given.

I think I will stop sticking my neck out now

Good post and sentiments I agree with.  I've kind of given up checking on BTC (Adam crying "moon!' every couple of months), so I'm ambivalent about whether it will rise significantly.  But if it does, I do think it will attract new investment into alts and therefore XMR.

[obit33]

A lot of the drop was caused by FUD.

Joel Valenzuela (aka thedesertlynx) is actually so fucking disgusting.
How can you present yourself as a journalist when you are so clearly biased?
Half of his posts/ articles are about how great dash is, the other half are about how terrible every other coin is.
Anyone who takes this shill or anything posted on CoinTelegraph seriously is fucking retarded.

Well I already saw a vendor yesterday announcing on Alphabay a fundwhere other vendors can join and pay to hire an assassin for Joel Valenzuela cause he lost with his escrow 15% due to Joel. Never try to fu** DNM vendors with FUD

lol, I was actually contemplating about this yesterday... what if DNM-vendors are really unhappy with this and now want to destroy the last bit of reputation he has left... hiring an assassin is a bit over the top I think though...

[N-rG]

A lot of the drop was caused by FUD.

Joel Valenzuela (aka thedesertlynx) is actually so fucking disgusting.
How can you present yourself as a journalist when you are so clearly biased?
Half of his posts/ articles are about how great dash is, the other half are about how terrible every other coin is.
Anyone who takes this shill or anything posted on CoinTelegraph seriously is fucking retarded.

Well I already saw a vendor yesterday announcing on Alphabay a fundwhere other vendors can join and pay to hire an assassin for Joel Valenzuela cause he lost with his escrow 15% due to Joel. Never try to fu** DNM vendors with FUD

lol, I was actually contemplating about this yesterday... what if DNM-vendors are really unhappy with this and now want to destroy the last bit of reputation he has left... hiring an assassin is a bit over the top I think though...

Sure its way over the top...but consider he FUD a coin which is a central part for drug and weapon dealers, hackers etc....so actually he has stolen their money. I would never steal money from these type of people 

[kurious]

I don't see it impossible to reach new ATH with next leg..   

IMO We will not see an assault on the ATH just yet...  I think that was the bottom (a shade under 0.1) as it was on large volume and there is obvious support at that psychological level.  I did think it would.

Very short term - we need to get over 0.0124 and then a run to 0.018 is possible - maybe even a touch under 0.02.  I do not expect to see anything like ATH without massive news or BTC collapse (both unlikely) before December.

If it is to come, and you're after my rash guess FWIW:  the next big rally to way over 0.02 will be spring 2017 - I am (wildly) guessing late Feb, early March...    GUI will bring in confidence, Soon™ - but I will be happy to see us price-finding around the 0.16 - 0.018 before too long - as long as BTC isn't primed for a HUGE leap up, which it does look it's due at some point before year end.  But then USD value will hold up as more interest in crypto comes and BTC profits are spread a little into the BEST cryptos to hedge BTC drop back.

Removing BTC variable - my gut feeling is the year end will see us still way under ATH - but happily up from here. We have survived a perfect storm of FUD, post price-hike pessimism and whale manipulation of a relatively small-cap coin when when old hands were already 'all in' and new FOMO blood was skittish with what it had just got into.

Awareness is good - so for me, growth from here at way under the ATH is now looking a given.

I think I will stop sticking my neck out now

Good post and sentiments I agree with.  I've kind of given up checking on BTC (Adam crying "moon!' every couple of months), so I'm ambivalent about whether it will rise significantly.  But if it does, I do think it will attract new investment into alts and therefore XMR.

Thanks Nano - if you look at the long term BTC chart:

https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg1460ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

It's been on a steady rising bull market for around a year, in spite of all the scaling issues which have tarnished it.  A spike up to 720 or even 800 would not surprise me before year end.

It's looking much less volatile than it has, so it doesn't look too foolish to hold some as a hedge with all the massive fiat QE risks and Trump etc to worry about.

But let's see - mostly I am just a glad as I am sure you are that we seem to be out of the woods with XMR.