[XMR] Monero Speculation

[drawingthesun]

Looks like i am done investing in XMR now, i refuse to buy above 0.011, i will save my last bitcoins(0.67), losing money(currently 60$) for not buying really sucks. Currently my profit is only 250$, that sucks. The people that sold below 0.011 must have horrible anxiety right now, it took some balls to hold and buy even more(i chickened out and didn't go all in).

I have a feeling the price might drop below 0.011 again, will keep a few bids there in the case that happens.

Time in the market is much more profitable that timing the market as long as the asset you're investing into is fundamentally sound.

Time in the market = buy and hold.

Timing the market = day trading.

If you have reason to believe in Monero then put X% of your investment portfolio into it.

Don't try day trading.

Imagine all of the people that bought into Bitcoin at it's first peak at $32 and then it crashed to below $5.

If they had held today they would have a 20X increase, but that would require time in the market, not timing the market.

I would advise against putting 100% of your portfolio into anything, even Bitcoin or property.

Consider that the best way to make money is to avoid scam coins and hold a personal fund that is an amalgamation of various coins that show promise.

As an example, my portfolio currently consists of BTC, ETH, XMR, AMP.

[1715249810]

1715249810

[1715249810]

1715249810

[drawingthesun]

@smoothie. It is very clear that XMR was pumped by some people who knew about the darknet market acceptance. Do you not think that is a form of manipulation?

Everything is manipulated, especially in Crypto.

Once you accept that manipulation is happening then you learn not to buy at the top of a green candle.

This space requires immense discipline.

You have to be able to see an asset increasing before your eyes and if you're not already in, stay out until the inevitable crash (or just stay out forever if the coin isn't sound.)

Here is the deal, you will always miss out on profits with that technique. But you'll also maintain your wealth too.

[freedomgo]

Am I wrong in thinking that XMR will go down back to .005?

Probably

So maybe I just need to wait for that price before I buy it, I hope it will resurrect again.

The price is not really good for now despite of the increase, but for a certain trader who loves to take the risk, I think there is a value somehow.

[adolf512]

Time in the market is much more profitable that timing the market as long as the asset you're investing into is fundamentally sound.

Time in the market = buy and hold.

Timing the market = day trading.

Don't try day trading.

Imagine all of the people that bought into Bitcoin at it's first peak at $32 and then it crashed to below $5.

If they had held today they would have a 20X increase, but that would require time in the market, not timing the market.

I would advise against putting 100% of your portfolio into anything, even Bitcoin or property.

Consider that the best way to make money is to avoid scam coins and hold a personal fund that is an amalgamation of various coins that show promise.

This is why i will not buy more now after the increase, i will instead look after other coins to invest in with my few money i have left to invest. As for short term trading i did get a lot more xmr for my money by selling at 0.0135 and rebuying below 0.0115) but now i will simply hold.

In general you are correct about daytrading, especially when you factor in trading fees.

[drawingthesun]

Am I wrong in thinking that XMR will go down back to .005? That is where all the craziness started so maybe it will also end there. The rise above that level was clear manipulation from the people involved in the darknet market.

Depends, if the coin is sound and adoption actually increased then the price should remain above what it was before.

A pump can actually raise awareness and spur development in it's ecosystem. If 2 times the people now own Monero, there is more chance of market places, etc... being built around it.

I've seen two types of pumps and I have been here for ages.

(Y is generally around 10 to 40)

Pump A: price starts out at X and increases to Y times X. The crash comes (it always does) and the final prices rests around 2-5X.

Pump B: price starts out at X and increases to Y times X. The crash comes (it always does) and the final prices rests around 0-1X.

Bitcoin is A and in fact I've seen it with Bitcoin multiple times.

Scamcoins that have no actual merit are B.

The reason is that people bought B knowing it was a scamcoin and that there will be an inevitable pump, as large holders will always try to manipulate. Once the pump happens and people start their exists many people ask themselves, where is this company/coin heading? Does it have actual technical promise? Is there a genuine active dev team?

With scamcoins once they are out that is it, no developers and no real adoption. Coin is dead and anyone left holding is out of pocket (remember kids, only invest what you can afford to lose).

Now coins with fundamentals and active development around sound technology can be manipulated, sure, but once they increase more people see that the coin actually has a place in this new world. More people hold on after the crash and this is the important distinction, that their are more people holding afterwards than before.

So even though it was a pump, the pump actually helps to increase adoption and the coin can then hold value.

I am not saying Monero is A or B. I am just presenting my view on the situation and where the price could lead.

If Monero did go back to the prices before the pump it shows that perhaps adoption has not increased at all, which will be a shame.

The question then is where will anon take place in the future? Zcash? Mimblewimble? Bitcoin with Mimblewimble sidechains? Mixing contracts on ETH?

Who know, maybe a good idea to diversify.

I really do believe in Monero only because of the development team and their dedication to the project.

I respect them and believe that Monero already does full anon. I believe that with the coming GUI wallets things will look better.

I am happy if the Monero market cap stays around $80-100mm for now, it's a good position to be in and hopefully will spur legitimate uses.

[Globb0]

Did that really work, the price doesn't move that far in a day and with fees you could even end up losing a few it seems.

Time in the market is much more profitable that timing the market as long as the asset you're investing into is fundamentally sound.

Time in the market = buy and hold.

Timing the market = day trading.

Don't try day trading.

Imagine all of the people that bought into Bitcoin at it's first peak at $32 and then it crashed to below $5.

If they had held today they would have a 20X increase, but that would require time in the market, not timing the market.

I would advise against putting 100% of your portfolio into anything, even Bitcoin or property.

Consider that the best way to make money is to avoid scam coins and hold a personal fund that is an amalgamation of various coins that show promise.

This is why i will not buy more now after the increase, i will instead look after other coins to invest in with my few money i have left to invest. As for short term trading i did get a lot more xmr for my money by selling at 0.0135 and rebuying below 0.0115) but now i will simply hold.

In general you are correct about daytrading you are correct in general, especially when you factor in trading fees, i have given up on that in general.

[adolf512]

Did that really work, the price doesn't move that far in a day and with fees you could even end up losing a few it seems.

Actually i did ok daytrading xmr but i considered the fees to high to continue with it(you need 120,000 btc volume on poloniex in order to pay low fees). I did however save a lot of money by not keeping the xmr i bought at 0.015, it feels good to be in the green zoon instead of the red zoon.

[smoothie]

@smoothie. It is very clear that XMR was pumped by some people who knew about the darknet market acceptance. Do you not think that is a form of manipulation?

From what I gather it is just the market doing what it is going to do when news hits on anything relevant to XMR usage.

You may call it manipulation, others may call it a free market moving "freely" without the interference of governments and financial regulators.

[bbc.reporter]

@smoothie. Well if government regulated markets can be manipulated then I conclude it would be far easier to manipulate a market that is moving freely without the interference of regulators. It would be naive of us not to think so right?

Now the question will be if Monero goes back down to 500k satoshis or not. What do you think.

[kurious]

@smoothie. It is very clear that XMR was pumped by some people who knew about the darknet market acceptance. Do you not think that is a form of manipulation?

DNM Acceptance was news.  If some new early and bought upon the news, or even the 'rumour' then so what?  It was still huge for Monero and genuine good news.  Yes it spiked up as a small market and FOMO kicked in, just as it did for Bitcoin along the way from 10,000 a pizza.

That is how it is.  Manipulated, quite probably - but only in the direction of existing market sentiment.  Was it manipulated in the other direction after the ATH?  Almost certainly and far more cynically.  It was held by too many people who were not buying more and a whole bunch of new holders who would easily be pushed into dumping.  Large shorters saw it as a sitting duck.

But the push down went too far, possibly just as the pump up arguably went - markets often overshoot.  

Will it go down to 0.005?  As long as BTC does not spike and there is no black swan news...  I very much doubt it.  

Support at 0.01 was very strong, XMR did not capitulate then - why would it now?  It will not suddenly go back up to above 0.02 either, but 0.005 - I just can't see it.  

Touching under 0.01 is possible again - but for me it's a probability of under 20% (Disclosure: I still have bids waiting, just in case).

Buy and hold and be prepared for a wobbly ride... up.

EDIT: I didn't mean to presume and answer for Smoothie, I am sure he is more than capable of doing it himself - but I had to chip in my 2c on what is an open discussion.

[N-rG]

This coin somehow reminds me a bit to roulette  
Maybe I'm going to sell at 110 again with 11% profit, for sure with the amount of coins I own the price will crash to at least 0.092 than. I consider this when it falls below 115, but i'm not 100% sure about my strategie atm. BitcoinMagazine could be right that wednesday was not the final bottom, maybe not, mhmhmh. -but my logic seems to be very good. Any factor I maybe forgot?

[elrippo]

Time in the market is much more profitable that timing the market as long as the asset you're investing into is fundamentally sound.

Time in the market = buy and hold.

Timing the market = day trading.

Don't try day trading.

Imagine all of the people that bought into Bitcoin at it's first peak at $32 and then it crashed to below $5.

If they had held today they would have a 20X increase, but that would require time in the market, not timing the market.

I would advise against putting 100% of your portfolio into anything, even Bitcoin or property.

Consider that the best way to make money is to avoid scam coins and hold a personal fund that is an amalgamation of various coins that show promise.

This is why i will not buy more now after the increase, i will instead look after other coins to invest in with my few money i have left to invest. As for short term trading i did get a lot more xmr for my money by selling at 0.0135 and rebuying below 0.0115) but now i will simply hold.

In general you are correct about daytrading, especially when you factor in trading fees.

Personally i would wait until 18´th to 22´cnd Ocotber. Probably we will hit the 0,007xxx by then 

[moneyLooser]

This coin somehow reminds me a bit to roulette  
Maybe I'm going to sell at 110 again with 11% profit, for sure with the amount of coins I own the price will crash to at least 0.092 than. I consider this when it falls below 115, but i'm not 100% sure about my strategie atm. BitcoinMagazine could be right that wednesday was not the final bottom, maybe not, mhmhmh. -but my logic seems to be very good. Any factor I maybe forgot?

how many coin's do you have? When do you sell and when do you rebuy? Should i sell now i bought at 103?

[N-rG]

This coin somehow reminds me a bit to roulette  
Maybe I'm going to sell at 110 again with 11% profit, for sure with the amount of coins I own the price will crash to at least 0.092 than. I consider this when it falls below 115, but i'm not 100% sure about my strategie atm. BitcoinMagazine could be right that wednesday was not the final bottom, maybe not, mhmhmh. -but my logic seems to be very good. Any factor I maybe forgot?

how many coin's do you have? When do you sell and when do you rebuy? Should i sell now i bought at 103?

I don't know. Dont make your trading depending from me.

[dEBRUYNE]

Seems like the shorters are going for another round:

http://monerodice.pd.to/polo_snapshot_compare.php?id=530755&id2=530797

Note that this snapshot compares the current offers against the offers approximately 25 minutes ago.

[adolf512]

Not surprised the price went down again, suspected that but didn't want to sell for a small profit. bought 16 additional xmr, i am terrified again now, maybe it's soon time to buy.

[mfqrs3]

This can go below 0.01... (back to the mean ? )

[mambamanagement]

This can go below 0.01...

let's see if n-rg wants to dump a huge amount of coins....

[mfqrs3]

This can go below 0.01...

let's see if n-rg wants to dump a huge amount of coins....

I'm out of this game. He can dump as long as he want's This is a dumpfest after all ?

[adolf512]

Some more panic selling, not surprised at all. Just keep your cold and buy more when the price falls below 0.011 and you will be fine eventually, i do consider selling above 0.013 since it will probably take some time for the price to be stable above that level.

This is a feargame, when the price is high you will fear that it will go to the moon and pay overprice, when it's below 0.011 you might end up selling in panic thinking it will crash far below 0.01, this is why i now stick too my rules(not buying above 0.011).