Am I wrong in thinking that XMR will go down back to .005? That is where all the craziness started so maybe it will also end there. The rise above that level was clear manipulation from the people involved in the darknet market.
Depends, if the coin is sound and adoption actually increased then the price should remain above what it was before.
A pump can actually raise awareness and spur development in it's ecosystem. If 2 times the people now own Monero, there is more chance of market places, etc... being built around it.
I've seen two types of pumps and I have been here for ages.
(Y is generally around 10 to 40)
Pump A: price starts out at X and increases to Y times X. The crash comes (it always does) and the final prices rests around 2-5X.
Pump B: price starts out at X and increases to Y times X. The crash comes (it always does) and the final prices rests around 0-1X.
Bitcoin is A and in fact I've seen it with Bitcoin multiple times.
Scamcoins that have no actual merit are B.
The reason is that people bought B knowing it was a scamcoin and that there will be an inevitable pump, as large holders will always try to manipulate. Once the pump happens and people start their exists many people ask themselves, where is this company/coin heading? Does it have actual technical promise? Is there a genuine active dev team?
With scamcoins once they are out that is it, no developers and no real adoption. Coin is dead and anyone left holding is out of pocket (remember kids, only invest what you can afford to lose).
Now coins with fundamentals and active development around sound technology can be manipulated, sure, but once they increase more people see that the coin actually has a place in this new world. More people hold on after the crash and this is the important distinction, that their are more people holding afterwards than before.
So even though it was a pump, the pump actually helps to increase adoption and the coin can then hold value.
I am not saying Monero is A or B. I am just presenting my view on the situation and where the price could lead.
If Monero did go back to the prices before the pump it shows that perhaps adoption has not increased at all, which will be a shame.
The question then is where will anon take place in the future? Zcash? Mimblewimble? Bitcoin with Mimblewimble sidechains? Mixing contracts on ETH?
Who know, maybe a good idea to diversify.
I really do believe in Monero only because of the development team and their dedication to the project.
I respect them and believe that Monero already does full anon. I believe that with the coming GUI wallets things will look better.
I am happy if the Monero market cap stays around $80-100mm for now, it's a good position to be in and hopefully will spur legitimate uses.