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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 177051 times)
BTCdude007
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April 05, 2013, 12:54:23 AM
 #1121

SD is a profit generating monster...amazing! Already $215K profit in just 4 days.

I am eagerly awaiting the March report to see if the total BTC bet as well as average BTC per bet decreased due to the
price going from ~32 to ~92. I expect BTC per bet to decrease but total BTC bet to not go down due to increased userbase.

I wish exact numbers were posted for BTC per bet and total BTC bet each month, but from the graph alone it looks like BTC profits and BTC wagered is going down while the same numbers measured in USD is going up. If someone has the data for each month I wouldn't mind making a nice table along with USD conversions each time, I think the SDICE shares will benefit from more information on their profits.

The exact numbers will be available when evoorhees posts the March earnings report, which should be any day now...
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Zaih
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April 05, 2013, 11:47:08 AM
 #1122

Insane. Hopefully some individual didn't lose all the profits so far for April, and it was a more joint effort Grin

Keep it up sd!
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April 05, 2013, 09:04:40 PM
 #1123

A pretty quiet 24h:

Quote
Total of 67 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-05 02:02pm (up to block 229847)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   118448 |       3 (0.00003) |  116595 |    1850 |    1439.07 |    3841.67 |   142.13 |  -2402.60 | 266.955
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     7035 |       0 (0.00000) |    6483 |     552 |     113.13 |       0.15 |    22.23 |    112.97 |   0.137
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9105 |       1 (0.00012) |    8633 |     471 |     138.83 |     160.11 |    14.54 |    -21.28 | 115.332
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    17487 |       5 (0.00029) |   16992 |     490 |     354.05 |     432.62 |    10.11 |    -78.57 | 122.192
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    17537 |       1 (0.00006) |   17072 |     464 |     600.48 |       5.58 |    22.14 |    594.90 |   0.930
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    24773 |      11 (0.00045) |   24345 |     417 |    1427.35 |    1537.92 |     1.45 |   -110.56 | 107.746
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    27569 |      34 (0.00126) |   27037 |     498 |    2005.91 |    1659.54 |    55.91 |    346.36 |  82.733
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20875 |      38 (0.00186) |   20365 |     472 |    2386.96 |    1562.92 |    48.43 |    824.03 |  65.478
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25988 |     113 (0.00442) |   25470 |     405 |    6001.90 |    8653.65 |    13.25 |  -2651.74 | 144.182
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37171 |     298 (0.00818) |   36142 |     731 |    8309.54 |    6906.67 |    10.13 |   1402.87 |  83.117
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   132378 |    2005 (0.01521) |  129806 |     567 |   41134.53 |   36266.71 |     2.23 |   4867.81 |  88.166
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25530 |     583 (0.02317) |   24580 |     367 |    7963.01 |    8559.20 |    15.12 |   -596.19 | 107.487
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    84375 |    2575 (0.03066) |   81397 |     403 |   40982.89 |   36646.23 |     9.39 |   4336.66 |  89.418
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30154 |    1376 (0.04636) |   28305 |     473 |    9810.91 |   10634.65 |    25.34 |   -823.73 | 108.396
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36200 |    2221 (0.06205) |   33575 |     404 |    7725.70 |    7514.90 |    31.39 |    210.79 |  97.271
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    50706 |    4608 (0.09176) |   45610 |     488 |   16804.95 |   18412.58 |     7.43 |  -1607.63 | 109.566
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   197345 |   24143 (0.12268) |  172657 |     545 |   96192.73 |   95059.03 |   100.63 |   1133.70 |  98.821
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   106171 |   19288 (0.18269) |   86290 |     593 |  175456.43 |  176350.20 |  3315.07 |   -893.77 | 100.509
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   271604 |   66200 (0.24429) |  204791 |     613 |  372911.72 |  358950.67 |  2322.61 |  13961.04 |  96.256
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   265073 |   97246 (0.36773) |  167207 |     620 |  590435.09 |  582314.27 |  1013.34 |   8120.81 |  98.625
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1171811 |  571079 (0.48809) |  598961 |    1771 |  905855.35 |  887561.09 |  2925.37 |  18294.26 |  97.980
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   656948 |  327587 (0.49965) |  328042 |    1319 |  681092.13 |  664148.84 |  6521.94 |  16943.29 |  97.512
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   374220 |  274568 (0.73518) |   98901 |     751 |  307671.83 |  300552.79 |  6172.24 |   7119.03 |  97.686
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    84092 |   66331 (0.79433) |   17175 |     586 |   64343.28 |   62933.79 |  1187.79 |   1409.48 |  97.809
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    75113 |   63794 (0.85673) |   10668 |     651 |   81467.76 |   80674.84 |   400.82 |    792.91 |  99.027
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   117698 |  107228 (0.91622) |    9805 |     665 |   74404.03 |   73340.36 |     1.01 |   1063.66 |  98.570
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    19469 |   17771 (0.97971) |     368 |    1330 |   24755.20 |   24339.80 |   240.53 |    415.39 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3884677 | 1594714           | 2271760 |   18203 |  814547.15 |  800407.45 |   287.49 |  14139.70 |  98.264
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120198 |   54393           |   65512 |     293 | 2707237.71 | 2648613.47 | 24345.21 |  58624.24 |  97.835
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4004875 | 1649107           | 2337272 |   18496 | 3521784.87 | 3449020.93 | 24632.70 |  72763.94 |  97.934
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      72763.94350597 BTC (2.066%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3217.35897500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69546.58453097 BTC (1.975%)
Pending Liabilities:            5.02213640 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69541.56239457 BTC (1.975%)
Profit This Month:           1698.63582695 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12709606  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7355544  (57.9%)
Blockchain MB:   5516.0  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3031.6  (55.0%)




dooglus
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April 06, 2013, 08:26:13 PM
 #1124

Quote
Total of 57 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-06 01:24pm (up to block 230008)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   119007 |       3 (0.00003) |  117144 |    1860 |    1447.28 |    3841.71 |   142.16 |  -2394.42 | 265.442
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     7140 |       0 (0.00000) |    6588 |     552 |     114.25 |       0.16 |    22.23 |    114.09 |   0.141
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9164 |       1 (0.00012) |    8690 |     473 |     139.44 |     160.12 |    14.54 |    -20.67 | 114.830
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    17500 |       5 (0.00029) |   17004 |     491 |     354.17 |     432.62 |    10.12 |    -78.45 | 122.151
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    17594 |       1 (0.00006) |   17129 |     464 |     601.18 |       5.58 |    22.14 |    595.60 |   0.929
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    24833 |      11 (0.00045) |   24405 |     417 |    1428.00 |    1537.93 |     1.45 |   -109.92 | 107.698
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    27725 |      34 (0.00125) |   27192 |     499 |    2007.77 |    1659.55 |    55.92 |    348.22 |  82.656
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20909 |      38 (0.00186) |   20394 |     477 |    2387.40 |    1562.93 |    48.44 |    824.47 |  65.466
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26033 |     113 (0.00441) |   25515 |     405 |    6003.12 |    8653.65 |    13.25 |  -2650.53 | 144.153
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37239 |     298 (0.00816) |   36208 |     733 |    8311.55 |    6906.68 |    10.14 |   1404.86 |  83.097
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   132726 |    2008 (0.01519) |  130150 |     568 |   41139.80 |   36268.67 |     2.23 |   4871.12 |  88.160
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25600 |     584 (0.02314) |   24649 |     367 |    7964.45 |    8559.64 |    15.12 |   -595.18 | 107.473
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    84622 |    2581 (0.03065) |   81637 |     404 |   40987.58 |   36651.38 |     9.39 |   4336.19 |  89.421
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30258 |    1380 (0.04634) |   28403 |     475 |    9813.30 |   10635.52 |    25.35 |   -822.21 | 108.379
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36255 |    2222 (0.06198) |   33628 |     405 |    7726.83 |    7515.07 |    31.40 |    211.76 |  97.259
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    50902 |    4629 (0.09183) |   45779 |     494 |   16811.86 |   18424.81 |     7.45 |  -1612.95 | 109.594
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   197768 |   24195 (0.12268) |  173026 |     547 |   96202.92 |   95071.00 |   100.63 |   1131.91 |  98.823
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   106917 |   19452 (0.18296) |   86865 |     600 |  175484.38 |  176383.52 |  3315.10 |   -899.14 | 100.512
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   272640 |   66459 (0.24432) |  205561 |     620 |  372995.45 |  359043.62 |  2322.64 |  13951.83 |  96.260
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   265654 |   97447 (0.36769) |  167580 |     627 |  590474.61 |  582348.68 |  1013.36 |   8125.93 |  98.624
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1174539 |  572420 (0.48810) |  600339 |    1780 |  906490.70 |  888090.98 |  2925.41 |  18399.72 |  97.970
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   659306 |  328728 (0.49961) |  329244 |    1334 |  682138.43 |  665037.68 |  6522.00 |  17100.75 |  97.493
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   375863 |  275768 (0.73519) |   99332 |     763 |  307885.67 |  300774.09 |  6172.30 |   7111.57 |  97.690
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    84590 |   66709 (0.79420) |   17286 |     595 |   64411.63 |   62994.31 |  1187.83 |   1417.32 |  97.800
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    76015 |   64561 (0.85676) |   10794 |     660 |   81569.98 |   80779.91 |   400.85 |    790.07 |  99.031
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   118610 |  108050 (0.91622) |    9880 |     680 |   74501.22 |   73426.11 |     1.03 |   1075.11 |  98.557
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    19567 |   17849 (0.97975) |     369 |    1349 |   24762.80 |   24347.24 |   240.55 |    415.56 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3898711 | 1601130           | 2279235 |   18346 |  815799.97 |  801606.72 |   287.94 |  14193.25 |  98.260
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120265 |   54416           |   65556 |     293 | 2708355.91 | 2649506.54 | 24345.21 |  58849.37 |  97.827
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4018976 | 1655546           | 2344791 |   18639 | 3524155.89 | 3451113.26 | 24633.15 |  73042.63 |  97.927
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73042.63495753 BTC (2.073%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3232.08357500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69810.55138253 BTC (1.981%)
Pending Liabilities:            1.71823626 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69808.83314627 BTC (1.981%)
Profit This Month:           1965.90657865 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12762755  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7381700  (57.8%)
Blockchain MB:   5540.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3042.5  (54.9%)




Twerka
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April 06, 2013, 08:28:39 PM
 #1125

Just curious, ¿why people play a game that CAN'T be beaten?

The worst enemy of Bitcoin is Mt.Gox exchange.
FTWbitcoinFTW
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April 06, 2013, 09:01:07 PM
 #1126

why people smoke, you can't beat cancer ?

Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.
it has lots of buttery taste..
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April 06, 2013, 10:15:04 PM
 #1127

Just curious, ¿why people play a game that CAN'T be beaten?

Because humans can decide to be no better than this:


zx9r
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April 06, 2013, 11:01:09 PM
 #1128

why people smoke, you can't beat cancer ?


Dont you have played lottery never ?

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Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.


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April 07, 2013, 12:44:35 AM
 #1129

I do really think some of those big wins of last month coming from double spending exploit, forcing sdice to wait for 1 confirm. Bad luck shouldn't happen so often from now on  Cool
BTCdude007
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April 07, 2013, 03:48:25 AM
 #1130

Looks like there is a bot playing from this address 1MMqBiVZiciztWqL635TLVMnTXeqSQ8jLU.

blockchain.info shows hundreds of low probability bets in just the past hour or so.

If one of them hits, say bye-bye to all the profits so far this month.
MeatPopsicle
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April 07, 2013, 09:03:34 AM
 #1131

Looks like there is a bot playing from this address 1MMqBiVZiciztWqL635TLVMnTXeqSQ8jLU.

Code:
     First Bet      |      Last Bet       |     bets     |  winnings   |    profit
---------------------+---------------------+--------------+-------------+---------------
 2013-03-19 00:55:02 | 2013-04-07 09:03:55 | 189.69558100 | 42.93611902 | -146.75946198

Wish I had $20k to blow playing SD.

I take that back, looks like they won one:

Code:
     First Bet      |      Last Bet       |     bets     |   winnings   |   profit
---------------------+---------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------
 2013-03-19 00:55:02 | 2013-04-07 09:08:53 | 192.72208100 | 242.83605152 | 50.11397052

199.88505000 BTC on a .05 lessthan 16 bet.
Zaih
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April 07, 2013, 01:07:12 PM
 #1132

Just curious, ¿why people play a game that CAN'T be beaten?

It can be beaten Smiley. 1.9% house edge is TINY. Chances are, if you played less than 50 games of SD, their house edge hasn't even affected you, and you were playing 50/50.

It's only people who play THOUSANDS of games that end up losing everything due to house edge.

Some casino's take up to 10% margins, SD takes 1.9% which is extremely fair.

Obviously though, in the long run they profit, but so do a lot of other people Cheesy
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Poor impulse control.


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April 07, 2013, 01:14:01 PM
 #1133

Just curious, ¿why people play a game that CAN'T be beaten?

It can be beaten Smiley. 1.9% house edge is TINY. Chances are, if you played less than 50 games of SD, their house edge hasn't even affected you, and you were playing 50/50.

It's only people who play THOUSANDS of games that end up losing everything due to house edge.
[...]

This sounds quite dubious to me. Can you prove your assertion?

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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April 07, 2013, 01:41:05 PM
 #1134

Just curious, ¿why people play a game that CAN'T be beaten?

It can be beaten Smiley. 1.9% house edge is TINY. Chances are, if you played less than 50 games of SD, their house edge hasn't even affected you, and you were playing 50/50.

It's only people who play THOUSANDS of games that end up losing everything due to house edge.
[...]

This sounds quite dubious to me. Can you prove your assertion?

For the sake of this argument, lets say SD's house edge is 2%.

For every 100 games played, you win 49, you lose 51. Therefor, for every 49 games played, you win 24 and lose 25 (Give or take .1 of a win lol). That's one extra loss than win every 50 games on average. In 50/50 gambling, in theory, you will not make any profit or loss. So for 49/50 of the rolls you do with SD, their house edge is not affecting you what so ever. If you're betting an average of 1% of your money every time you bet, it's going to take 1000 rolls for SD's edge to take 20% of your money. Therefor, with an average of 1% of your money (Not compounding) gambled each time, it'll take 5000 rolls before you are 'cleaned' due to SD's house edge.

Obviously the 50/50 can have you go either up or down a lot during those 5000 rolls. But that's 50/50, and has no EV apart from entertainment.

With such a low house edge as 2%, the variance involved when gambling is still massive. The player has enormous chances at making a lot before house edge even comes into play.

It's unbeatable when you look at everyone who has ever gambled there, and then add all their bets together. That's when house edge starts really showing. But to the individual bettor who's looking for a bit of fun, it's more or less unoticeable.

I just feel as if you guys are making it out to be a lot bigger than it really is (The house edge).
organofcorti
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April 07, 2013, 02:18:21 PM
 #1135

Just curious, ¿why people play a game that CAN'T be beaten?

It can be beaten Smiley. 1.9% house edge is TINY. Chances are, if you played less than 50 games of SD, their house edge hasn't even affected you, and you were playing 50/50.

It's only people who play THOUSANDS of games that end up losing everything due to house edge.
[...]

This sounds quite dubious to me. Can you prove your assertion?

For the sake of this argument, lets say SD's house edge is 2%.

For every 100 games played, you win 49, you lose 51. Therefor, for every 49 games played, you win 24 and lose 25 (Give or take .1 of a win lol). That's one extra loss than win every 50 games on average. In 50/50 gambling, in theory, you will not make any profit or loss. So for 49/50 of the rolls you do with SD, their house edge is not affecting you what so ever. If you're betting an average of 1% of your money every time you bet, it's going to take 1000 rolls for SD's edge to take 20% of your money. Therefor, with an average of 1% of your money (Not compounding) gambled each time, it'll take 5000 rolls before you are 'cleaned' due to SD's house edge.

Obviously the 50/50 can have you go either up or down a lot during those 5000 rolls. But that's 50/50, and has no EV apart from entertainment.

With such a low house edge as 2%, the variance involved when gambling is still massive. The player has enormous chances at making a lot before house edge even comes into play.

It's unbeatable when you look at everyone who has ever gambled there, and then add all their bets together. That's when house edge starts really showing. But to the individual bettor who's looking for a bit of fun, it's more or less unoticeable.

I just feel as if you guys are making it out to be a lot bigger than it really is (The house edge).


You're forgetting about variance. Variance is why you might not notice the house edge in the short term. There's no 50 game cut off, but as you play longer, your losses approach 1.9% of the total you bet (assuming an infinite bankroll).

A game in which you are paid double for a win and in which you have 49.05% chance of winning results in an expected win percentage of 98.1 - house odds of 1.9%.

For 50 turns of this game the 95% confidence interval for wins is 18 to 31, which is a gain of  ~ - 28% to + 24%. This interval is many times larger than the expected loss of 1.9% and so the effect of the negative expected value is very small by comparison, and not noticed. But there is still a significant gap between the bound for the losses and the bound for the gains. I think I'd notice that 4% difference over a number of 50 turn games.

After 10000 of this game, the 95% confidence interval for wins is 4807 to 5003, a gain of ~ -3.86% to + 0.06%. Still an approximate difference of 4%.

The house edge is there. You might not notice it, but it has an effect on each and every roll you make.

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April 07, 2013, 10:37:25 PM
 #1136

And they spent most of their money again so everything is good with the world:

Code:
      First Bet      |      Last Bet       |     bets     |   winnings   |   profit
---------------------+---------------------+--------------+--------------+------------
 2013-03-19 00:55:02 | 2013-04-07 22:35:38 | 253.85541248 | 263.44254937 | 9.58713689
dooglus
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April 08, 2013, 12:54:08 AM
 #1137

Quote
Total of 14 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-07 05:34pm (up to block 230202)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   119904 |       3 (0.00003) |  118026 |    1875 |    1459.23 |    3841.77 |   142.45 |  -2382.54 | 263.273
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     7178 |       0 (0.00000) |    6625 |     553 |     114.74 |       0.16 |    22.23 |    114.58 |   0.142
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9237 |       1 (0.00011) |    8761 |     475 |     140.21 |     160.12 |    14.55 |    -19.90 | 114.199
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    18663 |       5 (0.00028) |   18166 |     492 |     386.10 |     432.78 |    10.12 |    -46.67 | 112.089
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    19748 |       2 (0.00010) |   19282 |     464 |     684.79 |     205.88 |    22.14 |    478.90 |  30.066
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    25352 |      11 (0.00044) |   24923 |     418 |    1456.24 |    1538.07 |     1.46 |    -81.82 | 105.619
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    27979 |      34 (0.00124) |   27444 |     501 |    2029.44 |    1659.65 |    55.92 |    369.78 |  81.779
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20959 |      38 (0.00186) |   20443 |     478 |    2388.57 |    1562.93 |    48.44 |    825.63 |  65.434
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26063 |     113 (0.00440) |   25545 |     405 |    6003.84 |    8653.66 |    13.25 |  -2649.81 | 144.135
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37395 |     299 (0.00816) |   36363 |     733 |    8315.00 |    6907.95 |    10.14 |   1407.04 |  83.078
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   133898 |    2026 (0.01520) |  131302 |     570 |   41216.30 |   36330.37 |     2.24 |   4885.92 |  88.146
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25638 |     585 (0.02315) |   24685 |     368 |    7965.50 |    8560.07 |    15.12 |   -594.56 | 107.464
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    85314 |    2594 (0.03055) |   82315 |     405 |   41007.60 |   36655.64 |     9.39 |   4351.95 |  89.387
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30306 |    1384 (0.04639) |   28447 |     475 |    9815.02 |   10637.23 |    25.35 |   -822.21 | 108.377
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36298 |    2224 (0.06196) |   33669 |     405 |    7728.70 |    7516.84 |    31.40 |    211.85 |  97.259
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    51137 |    4653 (0.09188) |   45987 |     497 |   16822.05 |   18433.77 |     7.47 |  -1611.71 | 109.581
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   198871 |   24323 (0.12264) |  174000 |     548 |   96260.60 |   95122.34 |   100.64 |   1138.25 |  98.818
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   109551 |   19957 (0.18318) |   88991 |     603 |  175608.99 |  176512.32 |  3315.12 |   -903.33 | 100.514
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   274128 |   66793 (0.24421) |  206711 |     624 |  373121.92 |  359170.83 |  2322.66 |  13951.08 |  96.261
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   266660 |   97821 (0.36771) |  168209 |     630 |  590567.74 |  582486.28 |  1013.38 |   8081.45 |  98.632
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1178167 |  574095 (0.48802) |  602289 |    1783 |  906966.69 |  888510.74 |  2925.43 |  18455.94 |  97.965
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   662493 |  330309 (0.49960) |  330842 |    1342 |  682685.85 |  665625.01 |  6522.04 |  17060.84 |  97.501
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   377987 |  277305 (0.73513) |   99914 |     768 |  308030.57 |  300912.67 |  6172.33 |   7117.89 |  97.689
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    85220 |   67205 (0.79420) |   17415 |     600 |   64495.52 |   63083.75 |  1187.84 |   1411.76 |  97.811
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    76592 |   65050 (0.85671) |   10880 |     662 |   81616.66 |   80824.44 |   400.86 |    792.21 |  99.029
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   119734 |  109066 (0.91617) |    9979 |     689 |   74600.46 |   73526.79 |     1.08 |   1073.67 |  98.561
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    19696 |   17956 (0.97965) |     373 |    1367 |   24773.14 |   24356.60 |   240.58 |    416.54 |  98.319
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3923861 | 1609412           | 2296012 |   18437 |  817587.60 |  803333.80 |   288.55 |  14253.80 |  98.257
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120307 |   54440           |   65574 |     293 | 2708673.98 | 2649894.99 | 24345.21 |  58778.99 |  97.830
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4044168 | 1663852           | 2361586 |   18730 | 3526261.59 | 3453228.79 | 24633.77 |  73032.79 |  97.929
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73032.79873537 BTC (2.071%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3258.54297500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69774.25576037 BTC (1.979%)
Pending Liabilities:            1.55722838 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69772.69853199 BTC (1.979%)
Profit This Month:           1929.77196437 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12835917  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7422550  (57.8%)
Blockchain MB:   5577.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3060.7  (54.9%)




dooglus
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April 08, 2013, 11:06:29 PM
 #1138

Quote
Total of 129 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-08 03:45pm (up to block 230349)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   120684 |       3 (0.00003) |  118803 |    1878 |    1470.24 |    3841.83 |   142.46 |  -2371.58 | 261.306
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     7193 |       0 (0.00000) |    6640 |     553 |     115.11 |       0.16 |    22.23 |    114.95 |   0.144
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9270 |       1 (0.00011) |    8794 |     475 |     140.99 |     160.12 |    14.55 |    -19.13 | 113.570
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    18711 |       5 (0.00027) |   18213 |     493 |     386.59 |     432.78 |    10.13 |    -46.18 | 111.947
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    19852 |       2 (0.00010) |   19386 |     464 |     686.22 |     205.89 |    22.14 |    480.32 |  30.004
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    25396 |      11 (0.00044) |   24967 |     418 |    1457.88 |    1538.08 |     1.46 |    -80.19 | 105.501
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    28027 |      34 (0.00124) |   27490 |     503 |    2029.96 |    1659.66 |    55.93 |    370.30 |  81.758
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21008 |      38 (0.00185) |   20490 |     480 |    2389.71 |    1562.94 |    48.45 |    826.77 |  65.403
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26150 |     113 (0.00439) |   25630 |     407 |    6005.40 |    8653.66 |    13.25 |  -2648.26 | 144.098
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37467 |     299 (0.00814) |   36432 |     736 |    8316.71 |    6907.96 |    10.15 |   1408.75 |  83.061
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   134222 |    2031 (0.01520) |  131619 |     572 |   41225.06 |   36334.89 |     2.25 |   4890.17 |  88.138
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25658 |     587 (0.02321) |   24701 |     370 |    7966.07 |    8560.92 |    15.13 |   -594.85 | 107.467
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    85451 |    2602 (0.03060) |   82443 |     406 |   41012.20 |   36661.93 |     9.39 |   4350.27 |  89.393
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30336 |    1387 (0.04645) |   28472 |     477 |    9816.18 |   10639.80 |    25.36 |   -823.61 | 108.390
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36337 |    2228 (0.06201) |   33703 |     406 |    7730.40 |    7520.68 |    31.41 |    209.71 |  97.287
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    51240 |    4659 (0.09182) |   46081 |     500 |   16828.56 |   18435.40 |     7.47 |  -1606.83 | 109.548
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   199145 |   24355 (0.12264) |  174241 |     549 |   96271.50 |   95131.88 |   100.64 |   1139.62 |  98.816
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   110248 |   20085 (0.18319) |   89558 |     605 |  175644.67 |  176544.01 |  3315.12 |   -899.33 | 100.512
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   274868 |   66977 (0.24423) |  207265 |     626 |  373204.83 |  359263.03 |  2322.67 |  13941.80 |  96.264
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   267357 |   98083 (0.36773) |  168642 |     632 |  590627.97 |  582546.66 |  1013.38 |   8081.30 |  98.632
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1180596 |  575299 (0.48804) |  603505 |    1792 |  907182.47 |  888743.40 |  2925.47 |  18439.06 |  97.967
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   664351 |  331245 (0.49961) |  331758 |    1348 |  683039.98 |  666029.34 |  6522.07 |  17010.64 |  97.510
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   379768 |  278603 (0.73512) |  100389 |     776 |  308137.88 |  301007.27 |  6172.37 |   7130.60 |  97.686
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    85595 |   67501 (0.79420) |   17491 |     603 |   64580.43 |   63167.93 |  1187.84 |   1412.50 |  97.813
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    77188 |   65568 (0.85685) |   10954 |     666 |   81660.75 |   80868.17 |   400.87 |    792.58 |  99.029
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   120697 |  109946 (0.91618) |   10059 |     692 |   74792.71 |   73725.23 |     1.10 |   1067.48 |  98.573
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    19914 |   18154 (0.97955) |     379 |    1381 |   24830.62 |   24414.13 |   240.61 |    416.49 |  98.323
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3936391 | 1615353           | 2302523 |   18515 |  818608.52 |  804336.54 |   288.82 |  14271.98 |  98.257
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120338 |   54463           |   65582 |     293 | 2708942.72 | 2650221.33 | 24345.21 |  58721.39 |  97.832
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4056729 | 1669816           | 2368105 |   18808 | 3527551.24 | 3454557.87 | 24634.03 |  72993.37 |  97.931
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      72993.37586867 BTC (2.069%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3271.63557500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69721.74029367 BTC (1.976%)
Pending Liabilities:            2.57940241 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69719.16089126 BTC (1.976%)
Profit This Month:           1876.23432364 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12892929  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7446463  (57.8%)
Blockchain MB:   5604.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3070.6  (54.8%)




deepceleron
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April 08, 2013, 11:57:03 PM
 #1139

The house edge is there. You might not notice it, but it has an effect on each and every roll you make.
To make it more understandable, every time you send 1.00 BTC to Satoshidice, they send you back 0.981 BTC. If you send the 0.981 BTC to them again, you now have 0.9624 BTC. They have just added variance to this process to keep you entertained for a while. The more you bet, the more you reduce the variance and approach the above scenario. The more you bet, the more you compound your loss.

The only winning move is not to play.

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April 09, 2013, 12:08:07 AM
 #1140

So who is stacking up the most BTC? SatoshiDice or MtGox!

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