Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[Picklee]

So who is stacking up the most BTC? SatoshiDice or MtGox!

Trick question: VirtEx.

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[dooglus]

Lots of unprocessed bets, and my script timed out getting the result for many of them too, so there's lots of scope for error here.

Total of 771 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-09 12:31pm (up to block 230495)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   121151 |       3 (0.00003) |  119247 |    1901 |    1475.86 |    3841.86 |   144.76 |  -2365.99 | 260.313
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     7274 |       0 (0.00000) |    6721 |     553 |     115.93 |       0.16 |    22.23 |    115.76 |   0.146
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9288 |       1 (0.00011) |    8812 |     475 |     141.21 |     160.13 |    14.55 |    -18.91 | 113.392
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    18910 |       5 (0.00027) |   18412 |     493 |     394.09 |     432.82 |    10.13 |    -38.73 | 109.828
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    20122 |       2 (0.00010) |   19656 |     464 |     698.41 |     205.95 |    22.14 |    492.45 |  29.489
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    25438 |      11 (0.00044) |   25009 |     418 |    1459.25 |    1538.08 |     1.46 |    -78.83 | 105.402
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    28200 |      35 (0.00126) |   27662 |     503 |    2039.32 |    1739.66 |    55.93 |    299.65 |  85.306
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21050 |      38 (0.00185) |   20532 |     480 |    2390.57 |    1562.94 |    48.45 |    827.63 |  65.379
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26173 |     114 (0.00442) |   25652 |     407 |    6005.67 |    8656.16 |    13.25 |  -2650.49 | 144.133
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37547 |     300 (0.00815) |   36511 |     736 |    8321.24 |    6909.60 |    10.15 |   1411.63 |  83.036
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   134731 |    2039 (0.01520) |  132120 |     572 |   41268.38 |   36358.88 |     2.25 |   4909.50 |  88.103
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25689 |     588 (0.02322) |   24731 |     370 |    7967.00 |    8562.21 |    15.13 |   -595.20 | 107.471
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    85690 |    2610 (0.03060) |   82674 |     406 |   41034.92 |   36670.35 |     9.39 |   4364.56 |  89.364
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30372 |    1388 (0.04643) |   28507 |     477 |    9817.34 |   10640.02 |    25.36 |   -822.68 | 108.380
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36381 |    2230 (0.06199) |   33745 |     406 |    7733.39 |    7521.18 |    31.41 |    212.21 |  97.256
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    51295 |    4666 (0.09186) |   46129 |     500 |   16831.88 |   18439.92 |     7.47 |  -1608.04 | 109.554
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   199429 |   24387 (0.12262) |  174493 |     549 |   96305.11 |   95185.70 |   100.64 |   1119.41 |  98.838
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   110617 |   20157 (0.18323) |   89855 |     605 |  175676.36 |  176620.24 |  3315.12 |   -943.88 | 100.537
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   275340 |   67084 (0.24420) |  207630 |     626 |  373357.79 |  359345.72 |  2322.67 |  14012.07 |  96.247
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   267802 |   98256 (0.36777) |  168914 |     632 |  590672.80 |  582590.34 |  1013.38 |   8082.45 |  98.632
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1181602 |  575787 (0.48803) |  604021 |    1794 |  907406.86 |  889030.10 |  2925.48 |  18376.75 |  97.975
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   665232 |  331649 (0.49956) |  332232 |    1351 |  683244.85 |  666257.66 |  6522.08 |  16987.18 |  97.514
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   380524 |  279138 (0.73506) |  100610 |     776 |  308322.77 |  301188.68 |  6172.37 |   7134.08 |  97.686
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    85795 |   67649 (0.79408) |   17543 |     603 |   64627.83 |   63203.77 |  1187.84 |   1424.06 |  97.797
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    77494 |   65829 (0.85684) |   10999 |     666 |   81706.35 |   80915.33 |   400.87 |    791.01 |  99.032
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   121303 |  110503 (0.91619) |   10108 |     692 |   75059.19 |   73965.82 |     1.10 |   1093.37 |  98.543
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    19991 |   18226 (0.97958) |     380 |    1385 |   24847.60 |   24430.69 |   240.62 |    416.91 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3944064 | 1618209           | 2307308 |   18547 |  819532.41 |  805237.97 |   291.14 |  14294.44 |  98.256
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120376 |   54486           |   65597 |     293 | 2709389.68 | 2650736.14 | 24345.21 |  58653.54 |  97.835
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4064440 | 1672695           | 2372905 |   18840 | 3528922.10 | 3455974.11 | 24636.35 |  72947.99 |  97.933
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      72947.99179458 BTC (2.067%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3279.71857500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69668.27321958 BTC (1.974%)
Pending Liabilities:           -8.72286413 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69676.99608371 BTC (1.974%)
Profit This Month:           1834.06951609 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12941846  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7460270  (57.6%)
Blockchain MB:   5626.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3076.5  (54.7%)

[ar9]

hey dooglus, thanks for all the updates.

Just curious, do you have any stakes in Satoshi Dice, or do you do this out of your own personal interest?

Cheers-
ar9

[organofcorti]

hey dooglus, thanks for all the updates.

Just curious, do you have any stakes in Satoshi Dice, or do you do this out of your own personal interest?

Cheers-
ar9

This, again?

dooglus may start having to display a disclaimer on his charts.

[ar9]

hey dooglus, thanks for all the updates.

Just curious, do you have any stakes in Satoshi Dice, or do you do this out of your own personal interest?

Cheers-
ar9

This, again?

dooglus may start having to display a disclaimer on his charts.

Sorry, this asked often?

Relatively new investor into S.DICE, just looking for clarity.  Not naysaying the charts or nothing. 

[thoughtfan]

Wow, since big whale 1 went away that 1.9% edge line has to be the steadiest and least volatile line on any chart that has anything to do with Bitcoin!

As long as it remains even a tiny bit up week on week I'm happy with the price I paid for my stock even if others are now able to buy rights to the same dividends as me for much less.

[kidgorgeous]

What is up with the processing times on the bets?! Part of the appeal of SD is that people find out and get paid quickly. I'm seeing bets (winning and losing) only come back after 100+ confirmations

[bitpop]

Many of my bets are stuck. This is starting to become a scam.

[dooglus]

Lots of unprocessed bets, and my script timed out getting the result for many of them too, so there's lots of scope for error here.

Total of 771 bets unaccounted for.

I'm not sure yet how many bets are unaccounted for today, but the satoshidice site is so slow that my script has been hung for hours trying to look up the results for the bets which didn't get paid out yet.

I've changed the script to ignore those bets so at least I'll get to post a report today, without adding further strain to the site which is clearly already under attack.

[dooglus]

15.6k bets unaccounted for!

Total of 15659 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-10 07:05pm (up to block 230738)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   123294 |       3 (0.00002) |  121385 |    1906 |    1515.85 |    3842.06 |   145.07 |  -2326.20 | 253.458
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     7447 |       0 (0.00000) |    6893 |     554 |     117.84 |       0.17 |    22.24 |    117.66 |   0.152
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9315 |       1 (0.00011) |    8839 |     475 |     142.03 |     160.13 |    14.55 |    -18.09 | 112.739
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    19136 |       5 (0.00027) |   18638 |     493 |     396.37 |     432.83 |    10.13 |    -36.46 | 109.200
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    20410 |       2 (0.00010) |   19944 |     464 |     701.88 |     205.97 |    22.14 |    495.91 |  29.346
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    25619 |      11 (0.00044) |   25190 |     418 |    1461.68 |    1538.09 |     1.46 |    -76.41 | 105.228
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    28906 |      35 (0.00123) |   28367 |     504 |    2105.39 |    1739.99 |   116.93 |    365.40 |  82.644
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21112 |      38 (0.00184) |   20593 |     481 |    2392.82 |    1562.95 |    48.45 |    829.86 |  65.319
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26208 |     114 (0.00442) |   25687 |     407 |    6007.66 |    8656.17 |    13.25 |  -2648.51 | 144.086
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37617 |     300 (0.00813) |   36580 |     737 |    8334.82 |    6909.67 |    10.15 |   1425.14 |  82.901
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   135648 |    2052 (0.01519) |  133022 |     574 |   41322.96 |   36403.34 |     2.26 |   4919.62 |  88.095
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25732 |     588 (0.02318) |   24774 |     370 |    7968.67 |    8562.21 |    15.13 |   -593.54 | 107.448
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    86430 |    2644 (0.03074) |   83380 |     406 |   41091.37 |   36723.88 |     9.39 |   4367.48 |  89.371
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30443 |    1389 (0.04635) |   28576 |     478 |    9819.63 |   10640.24 |    25.36 |   -820.61 | 108.357
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36419 |    2233 (0.06201) |   33780 |     406 |    7735.47 |    7524.55 |    31.41 |    210.92 |  97.273
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    51383 |    4674 (0.09186) |   46209 |     500 |   16838.28 |   18453.12 |     7.47 |  -1614.83 | 109.590
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   199822 |   24424 (0.12257) |  174849 |     549 |   96381.17 |   95207.83 |   100.64 |   1173.33 |  98.783
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   111073 |   20249 (0.18330) |   90218 |     606 |  175778.96 |  176769.27 |  3315.13 |   -990.30 | 100.563
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   276063 |   67262 (0.24420) |  208174 |     627 |  373498.00 |  359470.69 |  2322.68 |  14027.31 |  96.244
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   268309 |   98434 (0.36773) |  169243 |     632 |  590882.93 |  582666.75 |  1013.38 |   8216.17 |  98.610
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1182681 |  576338 (0.48806) |  604546 |    1797 |  907570.48 |  889251.25 |  2925.48 |  18319.23 |  97.982
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   666578 |  332324 (0.49957) |  332899 |    1355 |  683501.22 |  666459.31 |  6522.10 |  17041.91 |  97.507
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   381321 |  279717 (0.73505) |  100825 |     779 |  308432.17 |  301299.62 |  6172.39 |   7132.54 |  97.687
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    86053 |   67842 (0.79396) |   17606 |     605 |   64682.25 |   63245.52 |  1187.85 |   1436.73 |  97.779
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    77753 |   66058 (0.85693) |   11029 |     666 |   81740.59 |   80951.20 |   400.87 |    789.39 |  99.034
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   122339 |  111449 (0.91619) |   10195 |     695 |   75164.95 |   74069.81 |     1.12 |   1095.14 |  98.543
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    20137 |   18360 (0.97946) |     385 |    1392 |   24861.46 |   24444.14 |   240.63 |    417.32 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3956801 | 1622037           | 2316182 |   18582 |  820480.65 |  806035.85 |   291.57 |  14444.80 |  98.239
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120447 |   54509           |   65644 |     294 | 2709966.40 | 2651155.04 | 24406.21 |  58811.35 |  97.830
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4077248 | 1676546           | 2381826 |   18876 | 3530447.06 | 3457190.90 | 24697.79 |  73256.15 |  97.925
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73256.15592801 BTC (2.075%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3293.21397500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69962.94195301 BTC (1.982%)
Profit This Month:           2120.01538539 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13036018  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7481433  (57.4%)
Blockchain MB:   5670.5  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3085.1  (54.4%)

[bitpop]

Damn almost time to give them the scammer tag!!

[deadweasel]

Damn almost time to give them the scammer tag!!

Txns were taking forever yesterday, how do you expect them to keep up when the bet txns don't even confirm for 19 hours?

It will be sorted and people will be paid.  Cool thing about S.Dice is that it's all public record -- their ledger is the blockchain. 

[pizzaman1337]

15.6k bets unaccounted for!

dooglus, I'm sure this has been asked before somewhere in this 50+ page thread, but have you made your script that calculates these stats publicly available?

[ErebusBat]

It will be sorted and people will be paid.  Cool thing about S.Dice is that it's all public record -- their ledger is the blockchain. 

Yes... very hard to label them scammers.

Also we can see their profit and we know that it would not be in their best interest to start scamming.  They will make more money by being honest than by scamming, and there is no better motivator.

[MPOE-PR]

Damn almost time to give them the scammer tag!!

Are you the guy in the pic?

[dooglus]

Are you the guy in the pic?

Are you?

[DutchBrat]

Are you the guy in the pic?

Are you?

I know you are 

[ar9]

Feel compelled to chime in here.

When it comes to gambling companies, there is literally NO other big ($10,000,000+) gambling company out there as transparent and inherently honest, as Satoshi Dice.  Can you think of any other company where their profits are so clearly defined, down to the satoshi?  Doubt it.

Don't come in here and start dumping the "it's a scam" on us, it's slander.  Yesterday was a CRAZY day in the Bitcoin world, so of course there'll be transaction delays.  Those who won, will get paid, those who didn't, won't.  Just like any other bet!

[phantomcircuit]

Feel compelled to chime in here.

When it comes to gambling companies, there is literally NO other big ($10,000,000+) gambling company out there as transparent and inherently honest, as Satoshi Dice.  Can you think of any other company where their profits are so clearly defined, down to the satoshi?  Doubt it.

Don't come in here and start dumping the "it's a scam" on us, it's slander.  Yesterday was a CRAZY day in the Bitcoin world, so of course there'll be transaction delays.  Those who won, will get paid, those who didn't, won't.  Just like any other bet!

What I'm worried about is that they're directing their efforts elsewhere.

As an S.DICE investor, why would they expand their service, when they can just as easily make a new one, and startup an investment fund around their new service, leaving the S.DICE investors to fester in what they originally invested in, S.DICE.

So, Abu22, I am irritiated, yes.

[ar9]

Feel compelled to chime in here.

When it comes to gambling companies, there is literally NO other big ($10,000,000+) gambling company out there as transparent and inherently honest, as Satoshi Dice.  Can you think of any other company where their profits are so clearly defined, down to the satoshi?  Doubt it.

Don't come in here and start dumping the "it's a scam" on us, it's slander.  Yesterday was a CRAZY day in the Bitcoin world, so of course there'll be transaction delays.  Those who won, will get paid, those who didn't, won't.  Just like any other bet!

What I'm worried about is that they're directing their efforts elsewhere.

As an S.DICE investor, why would they expand their service, when they can just as easily make a new one, and startup an investment fund around their new service, leaving the S.DICE investors to fester in what they originally invested in, S.DICE.

So, Abu22, I am irritiated, yes.

phantomcircuit, if something I said isn't factual, point it out and show me why I'm wrong. 
I don't see the correlation between being a share holder and noting a company's transparency.