ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[DeathAndTaxes]

AM operates at 30 TH/s for 11 months.  AM then operates at 1,000 TH/s for 1 month.  AM's lifetime average is then 1330/12 = 110.8.  Now for investing purposes, should you treat AM as a 110.8 TH/s or a 1,000 TH/s operation?  I hope you can see that you should view AM as a 1,000 TH/s operation.  Hope this example helps clear up your misunderstandings.  

Well it depends.  In your example it operated for 1,000 TH/s for a month and that would be reflect in the slope of the lifetime average. 


Day 330 - LTA 30.0 TH/s
Day 331 - LTA 32.9 TH/s
Day 332 - LTA 35.8 TH/s
...
Day 339 - LTA 55.7 TH/s
...
Day 360 - LTA 110.8 TH/s


On the other hand if it operated at 1,000 TH/s for a few hours and then fall back towards 300 TH/s over the course of weeks and then despite recovering from the low it showed difficulty breaking even 500 TH/s.  If that was combined with a lack of information from the operator then no I wouldn't consider it a risk free assumption that 1,000 TH/s can be maintained.  Before I get accused of FUD I don't think this is likely however it certainly is possible in the sharp decline and lackluster recovery some equipment was damaged and without more hardware the network will NEVER reach its prior peak.  

[Panterino]

AM operates at 30 TH/s for 11 months.  AM then operates at 1,000 TH/s for 1 month.  AM's lifetime average is then 1330/12 = 110.8.  Now for investing purposes, should you treat AM as a 110.8 TH/s or a 1,000 TH/s operation?  I hope you can see that you should view AM as a 1,000 TH/s operation.  Hope this example helps clear up your misunderstandings.  

Well it depends.  In your example it operated for 1,000 TH/s for a month and that would be reflect in the slope of the lifetime average. 


Day 330 - LTA 30.0 TH/s
Day 331 - LTA 32.9 TH/s
Day 332 - LTA 35.8 TH/s
...
Day 339 - LTA 55.7 TH/s
...
Day 360 - LTA 110.8 TH/s


On the other hand if it operated at 1,000 TH/s for a few hours and then fall back towards 300 TH/s over the course of weeks and then despite recovering from the low it showed difficulty breaking even 500 TH/s.  If that was combined with a lack of information from the operator then no I wouldn't consider it a risk free assumption that 1,000 TH/s can be maintained.  Before I get accused of FUD I don't think this is likely however it certainly is possible in the sharp decline and lackluster recovery some equipment was damaged and without more hardware the network will NEVER reach its prior peak.  

Didn't you see friedcat's post about exponential new equipment being manufactured in September and October?

[tkone]

all this stuff is good!
keeping the price of shares low,
cant wait to get more btc to reinvest more,
or even when the bigger dividends start dropping,
hope the price will still stay lower so we can reinvest even more!

fc can easily take the whole network, thats the whole idea of why he started to sell the hardware, to distrubute network security, also to make some profits on hw sales, and also so 1 entity would not control soo much network power...

i think we are in a good place right now, we could get the price of shares to come even lower, but they already pretty low would be amazing to see them even lower though!!!

[DeathAndTaxes]

Didn't you see friedcat's post about exponential new equipment being manufactured in September and October?

Yes.  Which has nothing to do with why the existing 50 TH/s network hasn't been able to operate consistently at 50 TH/s. 

[freedomno1]

Since were talking graph preferences I just watch the really long term graph and sometimes the other ones you mention
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=9

[ffernandex]

Hey guys,

Today I received 0.001 BTC in my ASICMiner dividend's address, this address has never been shared with anyone, does anyone has a clue what this is about?

check this transaction, https://blockchain.info/tx/4b97fb72fc2d040cef5abfc81121e6942b08dfa64789c5e8c4d118d2c2022717

Thanks,

[binaryFate]

Hey guys,

Today I received 0.001 BTC in my ASICMiner dividend's address, this address has never been shared with anyone, does anyone has a clue what this is about?

check this transaction, https://blockchain.info/tx/4b97fb72fc2d040cef5abfc81121e6942b08dfa64789c5e8c4d118d2c2022717

Thanks,

If you google the paying address, one entry that says it's a "bitcoin fairy address paying bunch of other addresses" and makes you want to click, is a phishing version of this forum. Maybe they just pay random people, assuming a percentage of them will research like I just did, and give away their bitcointalks credentials?

[runeks]

Hey guys,

Today I received 0.001 BTC in my ASICMiner dividend's address, this address has never been shared with anyone, does anyone has a clue what this is about?

check this transaction, https://blockchain.info/tx/4b97fb72fc2d040cef5abfc81121e6942b08dfa64789c5e8c4d118d2c2022717

Thanks,

If you google the paying address, one entry that says it's a "bitcoin fairy address paying bunch of other addresses" and makes you want to click, is a phishing version of this forum. Maybe they just pay random people, assuming a percentage of them will research like I just did, and give away their bitcointalks credentials?

It's not a phishing link. Here it is: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=195443.80

It appears someone spent 6 BTC paying out to random addresses.

[nubbins]

is a phishing version of this forum

It's not a phishing link

If you're wondering why the green "https" lock is grey with a yellow warning sign over it, it's because the page contains non-secure items (namely, the picture hotlinked from imgur).

[stslimited]

POOL MINE AGAIN

when Asicminer was 25-30% of the network, it made sense to hop off and solo mine, but now it doesn't

cheers

[philipma1957]

POOL MINE AGAIN

when Asicminer was 25-30% of the network, it made sense to hop off and solo mine, but now it doesn't

cheers

true.

 am should go to  www.bitminter.com   <<...>>> sorry missed a key

 now that am has finally started selling usb sticks at a decent price . I have decide to buy back some stock.   A lot of people are afraid of knc and the fact that bfl has built and shipped a lot of hashpower .  Also many people are concerned about the 120-150th that is unknown.

 Some say bfl is holding back on a lot of mini rigs some say avalon is doing lots of off the books hashing and even a few think AM is hiding hash in the unknown section.   All these unknowns have frightened off people causing  AM to drop.  Here is what I see usb sticks sell like mad at a low enough price. I have sold more then 80 of them choosing to make a small profit on each stick no gouging .

the cooked cat ( or is it fried) has said he held back dividends to use to build new gear. I think he has some nice new sticks coming up. Now that AM sees how the sticks will sell  with the right price. They will sell a lot of them.  the people that now have the .336 gh sticks will have hubs they will want to upgrade to a .672gh stick or a 1gh stick.  there is a real gold mine in sticks. One reseller has sold more then 10000 sticks in less then 2 months. I am of the belief that the cat has a better stick just around the corner.

[overc]

 am should go to  www.bitminer.com .

 now that am has finally started selling usb sticks at a decent price . I have decide to buy back some stock.   A lot of people are afraid of knc and the fact that bfl has built and shipped a lot of hashpower

Agreed with www.bitminer.com, stable and fair pool!

What is the "decent price" now? I can't see any of price information in the latest friedcat's post.
What minimal order and where can I buy it now by "decent price" ?

[gramma]

Agreed with www.bitminer.com, stable and fair pool!

Hm. Parked at GoDaddy?

[overc]

Agreed with www.bitminer.com, stable and fair pool!

Hm. Parked at GoDaddy?

missprint: www.bitminter.com

[philipma1957]

 am should go to  www.bitminer.com .

 now that am has finally started selling usb sticks at a decent price . I have decide to buy back some stock.   A lot of people are afraid of knc and the fact that bfl has built and shipped a lot of hashpower

Agreed with www.bitminer.com, stable and fair pool!

What is the "decent price" now? I can't see any of price information in the latest friedcat's post.
What minimal order and where can I buy it now by "decent price" ?

 a decent price is .33 btc a stick while some would argue that is not low enough  it is good enough to buy some for mining and some to sell on ebay.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277332.0   

  I buy 20 sticks for 6.6 btc .

 I buy a label from the post office for 7.40 usd. I email the label to the seller.

 I get 20 sticks in about 2-3 days.  this works for me and a lot of other sellers on ebay.   

[binaryFate]

POOL MINE AGAIN

when Asicminer was 25-30% of the network, it made sense to hop off and solo mine, but now it doesn't

cheers

You're grossly wrong on this.
You only get dividends once a week, and the variance on a week time-frame is very small (even with 5% of the total hash rate).

• The variance of blocks found over a week is by far overcome by the variance of the AM hashrate itself (glitches etc.), and this would still be the same when using a pool.
• If you want dividends that are that much stable, AM is not for you anyway.

There is absolutely no reason to pool mine, appart from giving away some fees.

[canth]

POOL MINE AGAIN

when Asicminer was 25-30% of the network, it made sense to hop off and solo mine, but now it doesn't

cheers

You're grossly wrong on this.
You only get dividends once a week, and the variance on a week time-frame is very small (even with 5% of the total hash rate).

• The variance of blocks found over a week is by far overcome by the variance of the AM hashrate itself (glitches etc.), and this would still be the same when using a pool.
• If you want dividends that are that much stable, AM is not for you anyway.

There is absolutely no reason to pool mine, appart from giving away some fees.

Not necessarily true. If for example, AM has a better network connection to a pool than to various nodes available in China, then the pool fees might be worth the savings in lost blocks blocks or in mining tx fees. We know that this has been a problem for AM and many firms doing business in China.

[ThickAsThieves]

POOL MINE AGAIN

when Asicminer was 25-30% of the network, it made sense to hop off and solo mine, but now it doesn't

cheers

You're grossly wrong on this.
You only get dividends once a week, and the variance on a week time-frame is very small (even with 5% of the total hash rate).

• The variance of blocks found over a week is by far overcome by the variance of the AM hashrate itself (glitches etc.), and this would still be the same when using a pool.
• If you want dividends that are that much stable, AM is not for you anyway.

There is absolutely no reason to pool mine, appart from giving away some fees.

Not necessarily true. If for example, AM has a better network connection to a pool than to various nodes available in China, then the pool fees might be worth the savings in lost blocks blocks or in mining tx fees. We know that this has been a problem for AM and many firms doing business in China.

Admitting some ignorance here, but how could the net connection between AM and a pool be any better than the one they use to solo mine?

[hcburger]

Regarding variance in general:

Since blocks are randomly discovered, the number of blocks discovered over a given period of time is Poisson distributed.
The expected number of blocks discovered by ASICMINER in a week is: 6*24*7*network_fraction.
Since in a Poisson distribution, the mean is equal to the variance, and the standard deviation is equal to the square root of the variance, we have a standard deviation of
sqrt(6*24*7*0.1), or approximately 10 blocks, assuming ASICMINER controls 10% of the network, or
sqrt(6*24*7*0.05), or approximately 7 blocks, assuming ASICMINER controls 5% of the network.

This means that the standard deviation is approximately 10% the expected number of discovered blocks if ASICMINER controls 10% of the nework, or 14% if ASICMINER controls 5% of the network.
If this is a lot or not is up for debate, but it is not insignificant.

Using the same math, we get a standard deviation of 53% (assuming 10% of network) for a six hour window and 37% for a 12 hour windows. That's quite a lot.

[binaryFate]

POOL MINE AGAIN

when Asicminer was 25-30% of the network, it made sense to hop off and solo mine, but now it doesn't

cheers

You're grossly wrong on this.
You only get dividends once a week, and the variance on a week time-frame is very small (even with 5% of the total hash rate).

• The variance of blocks found over a week is by far overcome by the variance of the AM hashrate itself (glitches etc.), and this would still be the same when using a pool.
• If you want dividends that are that much stable, AM is not for you anyway.

There is absolutely no reason to pool mine, appart from giving away some fees.

Not necessarily true. If for example, AM has a better network connection to a pool than to various nodes available in China, then the pool fees might be worth the savings in lost blocks blocks or in mining tx fees. We know that this has been a problem for AM and many firms doing business in China.

If it had such a good connection with a pool, it could just broadcast its solo-mined blocks to this pool node.