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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914546 times)
philipma1957
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August 27, 2013, 01:22:32 AM
Last edit: August 27, 2013, 04:16:55 AM by philipma1957
 #11921

POOL MINE AGAIN

when Asicminer was 25-30% of the network, it made sense to hop off and solo mine, but now it doesn't

cheers
true.

 am should go to  www.bitminter.com   <<...>>> sorry missed a key

 now that am has finally started selling usb sticks at a decent price . I have decide to buy back some stock.   A lot of people are afraid of knc and the fact that bfl has built and shipped a lot of hashpower .  Also many people are concerned about the 120-150th that is unknown.

 Some say bfl is holding back on a lot of mini rigs some say avalon is doing lots of off the books hashing and even a few think AM is hiding hash in the unknown section.   All these unknowns have frightened off people causing  AM to drop.  Here is what I see usb sticks sell like mad at a low enough price. I have sold more then 80 of them choosing to make a small profit on each stick no gouging .

the cooked cat ( or is it fried) has said he held back dividends to use to build new gear. I think he has some nice new sticks coming up. Now that AM sees how the sticks will sell  with the right price. They will sell a lot of them.  the people that now have the .336 gh sticks will have hubs they will want to upgrade to a .672gh stick or a 1gh stick.  there is a real gold mine in sticks. One reseller has sold more then 10000 sticks in less then 2 months. I am of the belief that the cat has a better stick just around the corner.

3) Never invest more than you can afford to lose
2)Not your keys not your coins.
1) be like JJG just DCA
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August 27, 2013, 02:36:11 AM
 #11922


 am should go to  www.bitminer.com .

 now that am has finally started selling usb sticks at a decent price . I have decide to buy back some stock.   A lot of people are afraid of knc and the fact that bfl has built and shipped a lot of hashpower


Agreed with www.bitminer.com, stable and fair pool!

What is the "decent price" now? I can't see any of price information in the latest friedcat's post.
What minimal order and where can I buy it now by "decent price" ?
gramma
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August 27, 2013, 02:39:40 AM
 #11923



Agreed with www.bitminer.com, stable and fair pool!




Hm. Parked at GoDaddy?

BTC: 1MrNRPo7p8DEyxn87c9BCGwrbatBQeCHc1
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August 27, 2013, 02:50:23 AM
 #11924



Agreed with www.bitminer.com, stable and fair pool!




Hm. Parked at GoDaddy?

missprint: www.bitminter.com
philipma1957
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August 27, 2013, 04:21:10 AM
 #11925


 am should go to  www.bitminer.com .

 now that am has finally started selling usb sticks at a decent price . I have decide to buy back some stock.   A lot of people are afraid of knc and the fact that bfl has built and shipped a lot of hashpower


Agreed with www.bitminer.com, stable and fair pool!

What is the "decent price" now? I can't see any of price information in the latest friedcat's post.
What minimal order and where can I buy it now by "decent price" ?



 a decent price is .33 btc a stick while some would argue that is not low enough  it is good enough to buy some for mining and some to sell on ebay.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277332.0   

  I buy 20 sticks for 6.6 btc .

 I buy a label from the post office for 7.40 usd. I email the label to the seller.

 I get 20 sticks in about 2-3 days.  this works for me and a lot of other sellers on ebay.   

3) Never invest more than you can afford to lose
2)Not your keys not your coins.
1) be like JJG just DCA
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August 27, 2013, 02:26:32 PM
 #11926

POOL MINE AGAIN

when Asicminer was 25-30% of the network, it made sense to hop off and solo mine, but now it doesn't

cheers

You're grossly wrong on this.
You only get dividends once a week, and the variance on a week time-frame is very small (even with 5% of the total hash rate).

  • The variance of blocks found over a week is by far overcome by the variance of the AM hashrate itself (glitches etc.), and this would still be the same when using a pool.
  • If you want dividends that are that much stable, AM is not for you anyway.

There is absolutely no reason to pool mine, appart from giving away some fees.

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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August 27, 2013, 02:38:46 PM
 #11927

POOL MINE AGAIN

when Asicminer was 25-30% of the network, it made sense to hop off and solo mine, but now it doesn't

cheers

You're grossly wrong on this.
You only get dividends once a week, and the variance on a week time-frame is very small (even with 5% of the total hash rate).

  • The variance of blocks found over a week is by far overcome by the variance of the AM hashrate itself (glitches etc.), and this would still be the same when using a pool.
  • If you want dividends that are that much stable, AM is not for you anyway.

There is absolutely no reason to pool mine, appart from giving away some fees.


Not necessarily true. If for example, AM has a better network connection to a pool than to various nodes available in China, then the pool fees might be worth the savings in lost blocks blocks or in mining tx fees. We know that this has been a problem for AM and many firms doing business in China.

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August 27, 2013, 02:41:22 PM
 #11928

POOL MINE AGAIN

when Asicminer was 25-30% of the network, it made sense to hop off and solo mine, but now it doesn't

cheers

You're grossly wrong on this.
You only get dividends once a week, and the variance on a week time-frame is very small (even with 5% of the total hash rate).

  • The variance of blocks found over a week is by far overcome by the variance of the AM hashrate itself (glitches etc.), and this would still be the same when using a pool.
  • If you want dividends that are that much stable, AM is not for you anyway.

There is absolutely no reason to pool mine, appart from giving away some fees.


Not necessarily true. If for example, AM has a better network connection to a pool than to various nodes available in China, then the pool fees might be worth the savings in lost blocks blocks or in mining tx fees. We know that this has been a problem for AM and many firms doing business in China.

Admitting some ignorance here, but how could the net connection between AM and a pool be any better than the one they use to solo mine?
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August 27, 2013, 02:48:50 PM
 #11929

Regarding variance in general:

Since blocks are randomly discovered, the number of blocks discovered over a given period of time is Poisson distributed.
The expected number of blocks discovered by ASICMINER in a week is: 6*24*7*network_fraction.
Since in a Poisson distribution, the mean is equal to the variance, and the standard deviation is equal to the square root of the variance, we have a standard deviation of
sqrt(6*24*7*0.1), or approximately 10 blocks, assuming ASICMINER controls 10% of the network, or
sqrt(6*24*7*0.05), or approximately 7 blocks, assuming ASICMINER controls 5% of the network.

This means that the standard deviation is approximately 10% the expected number of discovered blocks if ASICMINER controls 10% of the nework, or 14% if ASICMINER controls 5% of the network.
If this is a lot or not is up for debate, but it is not insignificant.

Using the same math, we get a standard deviation of 53% (assuming 10% of network) for a six hour window and 37% for a 12 hour windows. That's quite a lot.
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August 27, 2013, 02:59:13 PM
 #11930

POOL MINE AGAIN

when Asicminer was 25-30% of the network, it made sense to hop off and solo mine, but now it doesn't

cheers

You're grossly wrong on this.
You only get dividends once a week, and the variance on a week time-frame is very small (even with 5% of the total hash rate).

  • The variance of blocks found over a week is by far overcome by the variance of the AM hashrate itself (glitches etc.), and this would still be the same when using a pool.
  • If you want dividends that are that much stable, AM is not for you anyway.

There is absolutely no reason to pool mine, appart from giving away some fees.


Not necessarily true. If for example, AM has a better network connection to a pool than to various nodes available in China, then the pool fees might be worth the savings in lost blocks blocks or in mining tx fees. We know that this has been a problem for AM and many firms doing business in China.

If it had such a good connection with a pool, it could just broadcast its solo-mined blocks to this pool node.

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
binaryFate
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August 27, 2013, 03:04:25 PM
 #11931

Regarding variance in general:

Since blocks are randomly discovered, the number of blocks discovered over a given period of time is Poisson distributed.
The expected number of blocks discovered by ASICMINER in a week is: 6*24*7*network_fraction.
Since in a Poisson distribution, the mean is equal to the variance, and the standard deviation is equal to the square root of the variance, we have a standard deviation of
sqrt(6*24*7*0.1), or approximately 10 blocks, assuming ASICMINER controls 10% of the network, or
sqrt(6*24*7*0.05), or approximately 7 blocks, assuming ASICMINER controls 5% of the network.

This means that the standard deviation is approximately 10% the expected number of discovered blocks if ASICMINER controls 10% of the nework, or 14% if ASICMINER controls 5% of the network.
If this is a lot or not is up for debate, but it is not insignificant.

Using the same math, we get a standard deviation of 53% (assuming 10% of network) for a six hour window and 37% for a 12 hour windows. That's quite a lot.


Thanks for the maths  Smiley
Not insignificant, but as I wrote, most of the weeks it would be hidden by the variation of the actual hash rate (glitches, problems, tests, etc).

Add on this that hardware sells also adds up to dividends in a variable way... it would be ridiculous to complain about a potential 14% variance, when the actual variance of dividends is much higher for different reasons.

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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August 27, 2013, 03:15:52 PM
 #11932

Quote
Not insignificant, but as I wrote, most of the weeks it would be hidden by the variation of the actual hash rate (glitches, problems, tests, etc).

Add on this that hardware sells also adds up to dividends in a variable way... it would be ridiculous to complain about a potential 14% variance, when the actual variance of dividends is much higher for different reasons.

Yes, over a week it is indeed not too important.
However, it would seem that it makes little sense to display 6 hour and 12 hour hash rate estimates on, e.g. http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/ . Even 24 hour estimates are quite unreliable: stddev of 26% assuming 10% network control, 37% assuming 5% control.

Or maybe the charts could be modified to include this standard deviation, so that the level of uncertainty can also be visualized?
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August 27, 2013, 03:48:06 PM
 #11933

Didn't you see friedcat's post about exponential new equipment being manufactured in September and October?

Yes.  Which has nothing to do with why the existing 50 TH/s network hasn't been able to operate consistently at 50 TH/s. 
Yes, good point. It would be nice to get an explanation for this.

"The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."
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August 27, 2013, 04:00:11 PM
 #11934

Quote
Not insignificant, but as I wrote, most of the weeks it would be hidden by the variation of the actual hash rate (glitches, problems, tests, etc).

Add on this that hardware sells also adds up to dividends in a variable way... it would be ridiculous to complain about a potential 14% variance, when the actual variance of dividends is much higher for different reasons.

Yes, over a week it is indeed not too important.
However, it would seem that it makes little sense to display 6 hour and 12 hour hash rate estimates on, e.g. http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/ . Even 24 hour estimates are quite unreliable: stddev of 26% assuming 10% network control, 37% assuming 5% control.

Or maybe the charts could be modified to include this standard deviation, so that the level of uncertainty can also be visualized?

I would think it would be trivial to include a standard deviation to the charts. A bar graph of 30Ths might benefit from a "+/- 2.43 Thz" disclaimer. If poll takers can do that, why can't we?
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August 27, 2013, 04:15:16 PM
 #11935

Quote
Not insignificant, but as I wrote, most of the weeks it would be hidden by the variation of the actual hash rate (glitches, problems, tests, etc).

Add on this that hardware sells also adds up to dividends in a variable way... it would be ridiculous to complain about a potential 14% variance, when the actual variance of dividends is much higher for different reasons.

Yes, over a week it is indeed not too important.
However, it would seem that it makes little sense to display 6 hour and 12 hour hash rate estimates on, e.g. http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/ . Even 24 hour estimates are quite unreliable: stddev of 26% assuming 10% network control, 37% assuming 5% control.

Or maybe the charts could be modified to include this standard deviation, so that the level of uncertainty can also be visualized?

I would think it would be trivial to include a standard deviation to the charts. A bar graph of 30Ths might benefit from a "+/- 2.43 Thz" disclaimer. If poll takers can do that, why can't we?

It would be trivial but then again you don't see a poll which says "52% +/- 45% approve (with 95% confidence interval)".  That is essentially the equivalent of the 6 hour stat.
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August 27, 2013, 04:17:19 PM
 #11936

Why the officcial site '' www.asicminer.co '' isn't just up to date.
Just put the live hashrate, stats on block found and revenues there dammit !

More transparency is getting essential please !!

                    ▄▄▄
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Hello!
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eastpk
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August 27, 2013, 04:23:16 PM
 #11937

Why the officcial site '' www.asicminer.co '' isn't just up to date.
Just put the live hashrate, stats on block found and revenues there dammit !

More transparency is getting essential please !!

lol that isnt the official site....

▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
WINSTARS -   We are changing the face of gamblingWHITEPAPERANN THREADTELEGRAMFACEBOOK ● Twitter
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August 27, 2013, 04:25:30 PM
 #11938

Quote
It would be trivial but then again you don't see a poll which says "52% +/- 45% approve (with 95% confidence interval)".  That is essentially the equivalent of the 6 hour stat.

Agreed: The 6 and 12 hour estimates are essentially useless.
But maybe we could have the estimated stddevs for the longer-term (maybe 24 hour and above) hash-rate estimates?
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August 27, 2013, 04:33:02 PM
 #11939

Why the officcial site '' www.asicminer.co '' isn't just up to date.
Just put the live hashrate, stats on block found and revenues there dammit !

More transparency is getting essential please !!

lol that isnt the official site....

Well is there one ?!?!

                    ▄▄▄
                   █████
             ▄▄▄    ▀▀▀       ▄▄████╕
            █████          ▄▄███████▌
     ▄▄▄     ▀▀▀        ╓████████▀▀
    █████               ██████▀▀       ▄███▄
     ▀▀▀        ▄███▄    ▀▀▀           ▀███▀
                ▀███▀        ▄▄████╕
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   ▁▄▆████████       ▄▄█████████▀▀       ▄███▄
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                      "▀▀▀╙
Hello!
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eastpk
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August 27, 2013, 04:34:16 PM
 #11940

Why the officcial site '' www.asicminer.co '' isn't just up to date.
Just put the live hashrate, stats on block found and revenues there dammit !

More transparency is getting essential please !!

lol that isnt the official site....

Well is there one ?!?!

Yup, this is the official website.....

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=49840;sa=showPosts

▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
WINSTARS -   We are changing the face of gamblingWHITEPAPERANN THREADTELEGRAMFACEBOOK ● Twitter
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