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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914547 times)
ianp
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August 27, 2013, 06:29:41 PM
 #11941

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Not insignificant, but as I wrote, most of the weeks it would be hidden by the variation of the actual hash rate (glitches, problems, tests, etc).

Add on this that hardware sells also adds up to dividends in a variable way... it would be ridiculous to complain about a potential 14% variance, when the actual variance of dividends is much higher for different reasons.

Yes, over a week it is indeed not too important.
However, it would seem that it makes little sense to display 6 hour and 12 hour hash rate estimates on, e.g. http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/ . Even 24 hour estimates are quite unreliable: stddev of 26% assuming 10% network control, 37% assuming 5% control.

Or maybe the charts could be modified to include this standard deviation, so that the level of uncertainty can also be visualized?

I would think it would be trivial to include a standard deviation to the charts. A bar graph of 30Ths might benefit from a "+/- 2.43 Thz" disclaimer. If poll takers can do that, why can't we?

It would be trivial but then again you don't see a poll which says "52% +/- 45% approve (with 95% confidence interval)".  That is essentially the equivalent of the 6 hour stat.


I just want to add that I believe an accurate prediction of our current hashrate is about 63.5 th/s.

I do not have any reason to believe that they have sold off any hashing power, nor do I have any reason to believe they have increased power over the last four weeks.

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=672
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August 27, 2013, 06:37:45 PM
 #11942

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Not insignificant, but as I wrote, most of the weeks it would be hidden by the variation of the actual hash rate (glitches, problems, tests, etc).

Add on this that hardware sells also adds up to dividends in a variable way... it would be ridiculous to complain about a potential 14% variance, when the actual variance of dividends is much higher for different reasons.

Yes, over a week it is indeed not too important.
However, it would seem that it makes little sense to display 6 hour and 12 hour hash rate estimates on, e.g. http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/ . Even 24 hour estimates are quite unreliable: stddev of 26% assuming 10% network control, 37% assuming 5% control.

Or maybe the charts could be modified to include this standard deviation, so that the level of uncertainty can also be visualized?

I would think it would be trivial to include a standard deviation to the charts. A bar graph of 30Ths might benefit from a "+/- 2.43 Thz" disclaimer. If poll takers can do that, why can't we?

It would be trivial but then again you don't see a poll which says "52% +/- 45% approve (with 95% confidence interval)".  That is essentially the equivalent of the 6 hour stat.


I just want to add that I believe an accurate prediction of our current hashrate is about 63.5 th/s.

I do not have any reason to believe that they have sold off any hashing power, nor do I have any reason to believe they have increased power over the last four weeks.

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=672
How do you calculate that? I don't think that's accurate. My calculations don't indicate 63.5 TH, not even on the highest spikes of the 24-hour average (which is almost certainly an inaccurate estimate).
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August 27, 2013, 07:01:26 PM
 #11943

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Not insignificant, but as I wrote, most of the weeks it would be hidden by the variation of the actual hash rate (glitches, problems, tests, etc).

Add on this that hardware sells also adds up to dividends in a variable way... it would be ridiculous to complain about a potential 14% variance, when the actual variance of dividends is much higher for different reasons.

Yes, over a week it is indeed not too important.
However, it would seem that it makes little sense to display 6 hour and 12 hour hash rate estimates on, e.g. http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/ . Even 24 hour estimates are quite unreliable: stddev of 26% assuming 10% network control, 37% assuming 5% control.

Or maybe the charts could be modified to include this standard deviation, so that the level of uncertainty can also be visualized?

I would think it would be trivial to include a standard deviation to the charts. A bar graph of 30Ths might benefit from a "+/- 2.43 Thz" disclaimer. If poll takers can do that, why can't we?

It would be trivial but then again you don't see a poll which says "52% +/- 45% approve (with 95% confidence interval)".  That is essentially the equivalent of the 6 hour stat.


I just want to add that I believe an accurate prediction of our current hashrate is about 63.5 th/s.

I do not have any reason to believe that they have sold off any hashing power, nor do I have any reason to believe they have increased power over the last four weeks.

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=672
How do you calculate that? I don't think that's accurate. My calculations don't indicate 63.5 TH, not even on the highest spikes of the 24-hour average (which is almost certainly an inaccurate estimate).

Well -- it is a bit skewed. It only calculates based on the current difficulty, not the past difficulty.

That is to say -- that if difficulty were to rise ten fold right now, the historical hashrate would rise as well because it's basing everything off of current difficulty.

The link I posted produces the average hashrate of the previous 28 days.
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August 27, 2013, 07:06:26 PM
 #11944

Quote
Not insignificant, but as I wrote, most of the weeks it would be hidden by the variation of the actual hash rate (glitches, problems, tests, etc).

Add on this that hardware sells also adds up to dividends in a variable way... it would be ridiculous to complain about a potential 14% variance, when the actual variance of dividends is much higher for different reasons.

Yes, over a week it is indeed not too important.
However, it would seem that it makes little sense to display 6 hour and 12 hour hash rate estimates on, e.g. http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/ . Even 24 hour estimates are quite unreliable: stddev of 26% assuming 10% network control, 37% assuming 5% control.

Or maybe the charts could be modified to include this standard deviation, so that the level of uncertainty can also be visualized?

I would think it would be trivial to include a standard deviation to the charts. A bar graph of 30Ths might benefit from a "+/- 2.43 Thz" disclaimer. If poll takers can do that, why can't we?

It would be trivial but then again you don't see a poll which says "52% +/- 45% approve (with 95% confidence interval)".  That is essentially the equivalent of the 6 hour stat.


I just want to add that I believe an accurate prediction of our current hashrate is about 63.5 th/s.

I do not have any reason to believe that they have sold off any hashing power, nor do I have any reason to believe they have increased power over the last four weeks.

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=672
How do you calculate that? I don't think that's accurate. My calculations don't indicate 63.5 TH, not even on the highest spikes of the 24-hour average (which is almost certainly an inaccurate estimate).

Well -- it is a bit skewed. It only calculates based on the current difficulty, not the past difficulty.

That is to say -- that if difficulty were to rise ten fold right now, the historical hashrate would rise as well because it's basing everything off of current difficulty.

The link I posted produces the average hashrate of the previous 28 days.
Well that's the problem then. It's not just a bit skewed, it's very skewed. The difficulty 28 days ago was 31M - less than half of what is now. So you're over-estimating the hashrate for the first ~4 days by over 110%, and the following 10 days by over 75%.
ianp
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August 27, 2013, 07:23:00 PM
 #11945

Quote
Not insignificant, but as I wrote, most of the weeks it would be hidden by the variation of the actual hash rate (glitches, problems, tests, etc).

Add on this that hardware sells also adds up to dividends in a variable way... it would be ridiculous to complain about a potential 14% variance, when the actual variance of dividends is much higher for different reasons.

Yes, over a week it is indeed not too important.
However, it would seem that it makes little sense to display 6 hour and 12 hour hash rate estimates on, e.g. http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/ . Even 24 hour estimates are quite unreliable: stddev of 26% assuming 10% network control, 37% assuming 5% control.

Or maybe the charts could be modified to include this standard deviation, so that the level of uncertainty can also be visualized?

I would think it would be trivial to include a standard deviation to the charts. A bar graph of 30Ths might benefit from a "+/- 2.43 Thz" disclaimer. If poll takers can do that, why can't we?

It would be trivial but then again you don't see a poll which says "52% +/- 45% approve (with 95% confidence interval)".  That is essentially the equivalent of the 6 hour stat.


I just want to add that I believe an accurate prediction of our current hashrate is about 63.5 th/s.

I do not have any reason to believe that they have sold off any hashing power, nor do I have any reason to believe they have increased power over the last four weeks.

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=672
How do you calculate that? I don't think that's accurate. My calculations don't indicate 63.5 TH, not even on the highest spikes of the 24-hour average (which is almost certainly an inaccurate estimate).

Well -- it is a bit skewed. It only calculates based on the current difficulty, not the past difficulty.

That is to say -- that if difficulty were to rise ten fold right now, the historical hashrate would rise as well because it's basing everything off of current difficulty.

The link I posted produces the average hashrate of the previous 28 days.
Well that's the problem then. It's not just a bit skewed, it's very skewed. The difficulty 28 days ago was 31M - less than half of what is now. So you're over-estimating the hashrate for the first ~4 days by over 110%, and the following 10 days by over 75%.

I store the difficulty at the time the block was mined -- I don't calculate it though. One of these days I'll get around to that -- I've just been too busy lately Sad

Edit -- whoops, I do not store difficulty. One of these days I'll add difficulty and go update everything Smiley
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August 27, 2013, 10:39:57 PM
 #11946

One thing that everyone should realize that its in Friedcat's interest for the share price to decrease significantly right before rolling out a 2nd generation of hardware or products. Why? Because he is the only person that knows exactly what the company is planning to do AND while he cannot sell his existing shares without those actions being known (via the blockchain), he can buy cheaply from others much more anonymously.

In other words, if you're Friedcat and you know the plans for the next 6 months or so, you can increase your company ownership much easier by first withholding dividends and / or newly purchased hardware for some period of time, then purchasing additional shares (on whatever market) at a reduced price. This is insider trading, but since this is a virtual market, there is no protection against it.

I'm not accusing Friedcat of anything, I'm simply explaining a consequence of the current market. I'm here for the dividends, the share price has lost 50% of its value, and it would take over 18 months for reduced dividends to make up the difference, but at the company's current valuation, I'm much more of a buyer than a seller.
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August 27, 2013, 11:14:18 PM
 #11947

One thing that everyone should realize that its in Friedcat's interest for the share price to decrease significantly right before rolling out a 2nd generation of hardware or products. Why? Because he is the only person that knows exactly what the company is planning to do AND while he cannot sell his existing shares without those actions being known (via the blockchain), he can buy cheaply from others much more anonymously.

In other words, if you're Friedcat and you know the plans for the next 6 months or so, you can increase your company ownership much easier by first withholding dividends and / or newly purchased hardware for some period of time, then purchasing additional shares (on whatever market) at a reduced price. This is insider trading, but since this is a virtual market, there is no protection against it.

I'm not accusing Friedcat of anything, I'm simply explaining a consequence of the current market. I'm here for the dividends, the share price has lost 50% of its value, and it would take over 18 months for reduced dividends to make up the difference, but at the company's current valuation, I'm much more of a buyer than a seller.

True, but this is just one of the many, many ways that Friedcat can steal from his shareholders considering its a completely unregulated market, there are no verifiable financials, no verifiable inventories, no way to confirm the miners aren't mining under other addresses, etc.  All of it is based on trust.  If you don't trust Friedcat to not screw us over, then you should not "invest" (gamble really).
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August 27, 2013, 11:31:10 PM
 #11948

http://trilema.com/2013/the-analysis-of-a-failure-asicminer/
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August 27, 2013, 11:37:30 PM
 #11949


Mircea Popescu runs MPEX which is an exchange that ASICMiner refused to be listed on. He's been attacking AM ever since so anything he says should be taken with scepticism.

Support The Bitcoin Network By Running A Full Node
Node Stats     GPG Key-ID: 0x445DF2D8     Monetary Freedom Is A Basic Human Right
murfshake
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August 27, 2013, 11:38:20 PM
 #11950


Pretty bad article actually.
superduh
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August 27, 2013, 11:43:43 PM
 #11951


yes, quite bad -

ok
romerun
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August 27, 2013, 11:48:01 PM
 #11952

too long to read but one mpex mistake for sure is deciding to charge 30btc for membership and losing most of bitcoin trading action to bitfunder/btct/havelock and yet never accept it.
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August 27, 2013, 11:51:32 PM
 #11953


Wow, this guy lives in a completely delusional world although there a couple of decent points in there.  For example:

"They strike me as fundamentally honest people struggling to make the best of a complex situation with numerous constraints and a lot of novel problems."

But most of it is just ridiculously stupid:

-Suggesting AM should be more like Satoshi Dice
-"Actually having priced an asset, through the market process, free perhaps the first time since the 1800s." --Umm anyone is free to buy and sell it now...
-"Ownership transfer, from risk-friendly, low capital boys to risk-averse, high capital men."--No risk averse investor would touch any bitcoin security with a ten foot pole.
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August 27, 2013, 11:53:06 PM
 #11954

With the last increasement in price of bitcoin, selling started again. It´s clear, with price higher the company gets more value, but actually its an overvalue.
Thats the only bad thing about investing in BTC, when BTC price is on the rise, share price will fall.
Cheap shares yeah, but lack of liquidity don´t let you sell your shares you hold as fast as you want too. Especially when price is increasing during sleeping time, because Bitcoin markets are open 24 hours. That´s another problem.
I know most people know this, but I just wanted to make that clear.
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August 27, 2013, 11:55:40 PM
 #11955


MPex is completely irrelevant to everyone except the poor souls who bought into it.

コピペ copypaste
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August 28, 2013, 12:02:23 AM
 #11956


Mircea Popescu is a narcissistic windbag. Stop giving him your attention.

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August 28, 2013, 12:08:11 AM
 #11957


Mircea Popescu runs MPEX which is an exchange that ASICMiner refused to be listed on. He's been attacking AM ever since so anything he says should be taken with scepticism.
The official position of bitfountain was to only manage claims of direct shareholders (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1571278#msg1571278), and that hasn't changed.

I don't really understand the hostility towards ASICMINER in the article. If the author is upset with the current situation he is free to offer a solution to the market using available means to establish a solid pricing mechanism. And last time I checked, the existing pass-thrus seemed to do an acceptable job. Also there are constantly auctions on the auction forum.

I think his main critique is mainly pointed towards the recent decrease in share price. I don't think the decrease in share price is a failure of the pricing mechanism. It's rather the outcome of a liquidity crunch (more investment opportunities than capital, causing chronic undervaluation), combined with the deployment cycle of ASICMINER miner and their dividend policy.

I expect the share price to stabilize above 2 BTC/share. If it does not, it provides an incentive for previous owners to move back into the market.

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
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August 28, 2013, 12:12:08 AM
 #11958

One thing that everyone should realize that its in Friedcat's interest for the share price to decrease significantly right before rolling out a 2nd generation of hardware or products. Why? Because he is the only person that knows exactly what the company is planning to do AND while he cannot sell his existing shares without those actions being known (via the blockchain), he can buy cheaply from others much more anonymously.

In other words, if you're Friedcat and you know the plans for the next 6 months or so, you can increase your company ownership much easier by first withholding dividends and / or newly purchased hardware for some period of time, then purchasing additional shares (on whatever market) at a reduced price. This is insider trading, but since this is a virtual market, there is no protection against it.

I'm not accusing Friedcat of anything, I'm simply explaining a consequence of the current market. I'm here for the dividends, the share price has lost 50% of its value, and it would take over 18 months for reduced dividends to make up the difference, but at the company's current valuation, I'm much more of a buyer than a seller.

And the psychology here, people don't talk about AM like a long term business. It's as if the whole operation is valued on engineering project and just hash rates.  How come people never guess what friedcat sees about AM's leading role in bitcoin and into the future?  I guess friedcat plays it close to the chest.  From a trust point view, he's laid out many many pages and what he has said he has always done on point.  From the business plans down to never increasing 400K shares of FountainBit.
JordanL
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August 28, 2013, 01:05:43 AM
 #11959

I am part of a company set up to sell and service ASICMINER Block Erupter hardware for miners in nearly every country on earth:

https://2asic.com

In addition to the contact information on the website, you may private messages me here regarding our products.

Get yours while supplies last!
ThickAsThieves
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August 28, 2013, 01:12:34 AM
 #11960

I am part of a company set up to sell and service ASICMINER Block Erupter hardware for miners in nearly every country on earth:

https://2asic.com

In addition to the contact information on the website, you may private messages me here regarding our products.

Get yours while supplies last!

Neat!
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