ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[niko]

Can you give a ballpark on the power requirements of the 50 ghash module?

friedcat may want to correct this with updated data, but based on their preliminary specs it'll be about 500 W (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91173.msg1062854#msg1062854).

That's 50GH/s = 1.25 GH/s / chip * 40 chips.
and 40 chips * 13.3 W / chip = 532 W

Of course you'd also need to add power consumption of the periphery.

We have done a lot in the past month and the power consumption is already much less than it.

I'm now collecting the tech details for announcement.

While investors are eager to learn about the progress, announcements of this kind have no positive effect on the progress of this endeavor. On the other hand, the announcements may offer important targets for competitors' engineering and marketing efforts.

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[friedcat]

Can you give a ballpark on the power requirements of the 50 ghash module?

friedcat may want to correct this with updated data, but based on their preliminary specs it'll be about 500 W (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91173.msg1062854#msg1062854).

That's 50GH/s = 1.25 GH/s / chip * 40 chips.
and 40 chips * 13.3 W / chip = 532 W

Of course you'd also need to add power consumption of the periphery.

We have done a lot in the past month and the power consumption is already much less than it.

I'm now collecting the tech details for announcement.

While investors are eager to learn about the progress, announcements of this kind have no positive effect on the progress of this endeavor. On the other hand, the announcements may offer important targets for competitors' engineering and marketing efforts.

Of course, this is just a short-and-random reply. It's not an announcement.

The forehand progress report has been sent to the board already. It will also be announced when there is no slight deviation about the date and materials.

[friedcat]

While investors are eager to learn about the progress, announcements of this kind have no positive effect on the progress of this endeavor. On the other hand, the announcements may offer important targets for competitors' engineering and marketing efforts.

As long as the RTL design and optimization techs are kept as secret, the spec as a row of data couldn't really help the competitors much. What technology node could do how much is easy to know for all people who get into working on the ASIC design. Plus, this is what I have already promised:

Update

IPO: There are still three pending orders. Two of them amount at 1,000 BTC each. All other orders are either cancelled or traded.
If they are not canceled but done, we could collect at a total of >14k of BTC, which would be enough for our expenses, as long as no extreme condition with the BTC price happens. So we still hold the original plan.

Chip: With our recent (from starting of IPO and now) effort, we successfully further reduced the ratio of power consumption to hashrate. It finally makes inexpensive packaging of our chips practical. Before taping out, a detailed spec (size, power, performance, pins, I/O interface, etc) of our chips will be made public.

[arklan]

looking forward to more info Friedcat.

[data]

Even though only a very, very small investor, I would still love to hear at what stage you currently are and what the timeline for the next 2 months looks like. BFL still say that they will be shipping late october to early november, so if you manage to do go live at about the same time, that would be great news.

[matauc12]

Even though only a very, very small investor, I would still love to hear at what stage you currently are and what the timeline for the next 2 months looks like. BFL still say that they will be shipping late october to early november, so if you manage to do go live at about the same time, that would be great news.

what bfl say and what they sh1t are mostly the same thing.

[Jutarul]

Even though only a very, very small investor, I would still love to hear at what stage you currently are and what the timeline for the next 2 months looks like. BFL still say that they will be shipping late october to early november, so if you manage to do go live at about the same time, that would be great news.

The real question is not who's first to the market, but who has the most sustained volume within e.g. a three month period december-februrary. The miners are competing for 25*(6*24*90) BTC = 324000 BTC which is about $3M at current exchange rates. So if ASICminer can sustain a 20% level, that's $600k profit. That's the big short term  prize where part of it get handed over as dividends and other parts are used to expand the production and bootstrap the hardware selling.
I doubt that BFL can pump out huge volumes. (e.g. 50 TH per month), so 20% is still a reasonable goal.

[data]

Jutarul: Wow, I am not sure if it was that statement, but that brought me already about an 8% increase in current worth of investment. Btw. is there anyone discussing the  fee by GLBSE for buying and selling in terms of traditional tobin tax?

[data]

Also: While I am absolutely aware of the premiere performance of BFL, I am also aware of the following delivery times. There, they were much closer. But as long as we can get our (see what I did here) farm running before december, we will still be so far in the green, that I hope that I can get some sidebusiness going by then.

[Jutarul]

Jutarul: Wow, I am not sure if it was that statement, but that brought me already about an 8% increase in current worth of investment. Btw. is there anyone discussing the  fee by GLBSE for buying and selling in terms of traditional tobin tax?

lol. just spelling out the obvious. It's interesting that the share price is stuck at IPO levels. Apparently the pirate incident did more collateral damage to the whole stock market than I anticipated... Lots of investment capital got flushed down the toilet and isn't available anymore for reallocation into serious business opportunities like this one. It's a shame.

[intel-core-i7]

capital that trusts obviously scammy interest rates - does not deserve to be called "investment capital"

[matauc12]

Even though only a very, very small investor, I would still love to hear at what stage you currently are and what the timeline for the next 2 months looks like. BFL still say that they will be shipping late october to early november, so if you manage to do go live at about the same time, that would be great news.

The real question is not who's first to the market, but who has the most sustained volume within e.g. a three month period december-februrary. The miners are competing for 25*(6*24*90) BTC = 324000 BTC which is about $3M at current exchange rates. So if ASICminer can sustain a 20% level, that's $600k profit. That's the big short term  prize where part of it get handed over as dividends and other parts are used to expand the production and bootstrap the hardware selling.
I doubt that BFL can pump out huge volumes. (e.g. 50 TH per month), so 20% is still a reasonable goal.

so much speculation, bad math and elements left out.. your post is just... bad, wrong and also, you dont comprehend economy as a whole. (Sorry, this comes from reasing most of your posts in this thread....)

[flynn]

how rude

[niko]

Even though only a very, very small investor, I would still love to hear at what stage you currently are and what the timeline for the next 2 months looks like. BFL still say that they will be shipping late october to early november, so if you manage to do go live at about the same time, that would be great news.

The real question is not who's first to the market, but who has the most sustained volume within e.g. a three month period december-februrary. The miners are competing for 25*(6*24*90) BTC = 324000 BTC which is about $3M at current exchange rates. So if ASICminer can sustain a 20% level, that's $600k profit. That's the big short term  prize where part of it get handed over as dividends and other parts are used to expand the production and bootstrap the hardware selling.
I doubt that BFL can pump out huge volumes. (e.g. 50 TH per month), so 20% is still a reasonable goal.

so much speculation, bad math and elements left out.. your post is just... bad, wrong and also, you dont comprehend economy as a whole. (Sorry, this comes from reasing most of your posts in this thread....)

matauc12, I suggest you help us by providing a better analysis.  I would definitely appreciate it.  Thanks.

[Jutarul]

so much speculation, bad math and elements left out.. your post is just... bad, wrong and also, you dont comprehend economy as a whole. (Sorry, this comes from reasing most of your posts in this thread....)

Sorry. But I don't feed trolls. If you have something to say please point out the why's in your sentiment. Thank you.

[matauc12]

Even though only a very, very small investor, I would still love to hear at what stage you currently are and what the timeline for the next 2 months looks like. BFL still say that they will be shipping late october to early november, so if you manage to do go live at about the same time, that would be great news.

The real question is not who's first to the market, but who has the most sustained volume within e.g. a three month period december-februrary. The miners are competing for 25*(6*24*90) BTC = 324000 BTC which is about $3M at current exchange rates. So if ASICminer can sustain a 20% level, that's $600k profit. That's the big short term  prize where part of it get handed over as dividends and other parts are used to expand the production and bootstrap the hardware selling.
I doubt that BFL can pump out huge volumes. (e.g. 50 TH per month), so 20% is still a reasonable goal.

so much speculation, bad math and elements left out.. your post is just... bad, wrong and also, you dont comprehend economy as a whole. (Sorry, this comes from reasing most of your posts in this thread....)

matauc12, I suggest you help us by providing a better analysis.  I would definitely appreciate it.  Thanks.

well you know an analysys is totally worthless when you know it was not thought about for longer than the actual post... and also making an analysys based on 100% arbrotrary numbers. And things like "I doubt bfl can pump out huge volume", without having any knowledge of the process, developpement and progress of that said company... why even say that?

And also refuting the "first to get there is important"... thats somewhat lame considering the first can most likely turn from day to day 60% of current hashrate. Everyday at owning that much is huge. And your counter point being its about sustained volume... You do realize the first actually has a HUGE impact on sustained right? Being multiple days at 100% gives you a pretty damn huge advantage that you (how suprisingly) forgot to include in your magical arbritrary formula backed up by pure logic thinking about important factors instead of speculations.

And to actually answer to your request, unfortunatly, with the very small amount of information we have right now, its not even enough to think about doing some sort of market analyst. But as soon as there is relevant market information, I'll definitely give you guys some numbers that will give you a good idea.

Meanwhile, we are predicting a 600k profit.

Sorry, I just get annoyed by pseudo-intellectual, a few posts from the same guy, ok, just hopefully people dont take those as facts... But when the most active poster in a thread turns everything "i wish" as facts, its quite misleading.

[Jutarul]

well you know an analysys is totally worthless when you know it was not thought about for longer than the actual post... and also making an analysys based on 100% arbrotrary numbers. And things like "I doubt bfl can pump out huge volume", without having any knowledge of the process, developpement and progress of that said company... why even say that?

For crying out loud. Are you the kinda guy who assumes a SINGLE paragraph can capture a complete market analysis based on a complete set of input data? That takes pages. The post was meant to point out the fact that the first in the market is pretty worthless if you can't compete on volume. I just used some numbers to indicate the magnitudes (*/10). It's a valid approach for napkin science.

Anyway to provide you with more constructive data I've created an excel sheet and put it online http://ubuntuone.com/7BapyGzeikNy4SVvGKDOax
Feed it with your own set of arbitrary data to get a feeling for how mining rewards work.

And also refuting the "first to get there is important"... thats somewhat lame considering the first can most likely turn from day to day 60% of current hashrate. Everyday at owning that much is huge. And your counter point being its about sustained volume... You do realize the first actually has a HUGE impact on sustained right? Being multiple days at 100% gives you a pretty damn huge advantage that you (how suprisingly) forgot to include in your magical arbritrary formula backed up by pure logic thinking about important factors instead of speculations.

First, I didn't refute anything - just questioned the priority of being first. Second, you do realize that you're falling for the same kind of argumentative traps you're accusing me of here...

The above scripts provides a simple linear growth based yield analysis over 90 days with some arbitrary data (DISCLAIMER). It assumes the base TH to be 20 and two competitors A and B. A is first to the market and can add 1TH a day. A has 28 days head start before B starts putting out 2 TH a day. At day 28, A owns 60% hashrate. Hashrate of A and B is equal at day 55.
In this case total yield for A and B is 133K BTC and 91K BTC, respectively. To break even, B would have to add about 3TH a day instead of 2TH, leading to a yield of 118K BTC and 112K BTC for A and B, respectively.

Thus being second to the market by a month means you'd need to have a 3 fold volume output to break even with the profits of the leader on a 3 months schedule. It's less severe if you calculate on a 6 months schedule (only 2 fold volume required).

So yes first to the market is important, but if you can pump out a 10 fold volume, 1 month doesn't really matter in the long run.

And to actually answer to your request, unfortunatly, with the very small amount of information we have right now, its not even enough to think about doing some sort of market analyst. But as soon as there is relevant market information, I'll definitely give you guys some numbers that will give you a good idea.

With that attitude you never get a business started. You need ballpark figures to play with and get a feel for the market.

Meanwhile, we are predicting a 600k profit.

No, actually the prediction is 0<x<324K BTC for the 90 days beginning december. 20% is a conservative estimate for success. It's likely to be higher. Or 0% if it's a failure.

Calculating on a 3 month schedule with the 1THvs2TH scenario mentioned above the total split will be: 41% A, 28% B, 30% Base

Sorry, I just get annoyed by pseudo-intellectual, a few posts from the same guy, ok, just hopefully people dont take those as facts... But when the most active poster in a thread turns everything "i wish" as facts, its quite misleading.

Never claimed it and every individual who has a brain on its own is likely to get the picture. I am just sorry if I offended you in any way by providing some unsupported ballpark figures.

[matauc12]

well you know an analysys is totally worthless when you know it was not thought about for longer than the actual post... and also making an analysys based on 100% arbrotrary numbers. And things like "I doubt bfl can pump out huge volume", without having any knowledge of the process, developpement and progress of that said company... why even say that?

For crying out loud. Are you the kinda guy who assumes a SINGLE paragraph can capture a complete market analysis based on a complete set of input data? That takes pages. The post was meant to point out the fact that the first in the market is pretty worthless if you can't compete on volume. I just used some numbers to indicate the magnitudes (*/10). It's a valid approach for napkin science.

Anyway to provide you with more constructive data I've created an excel sheet and put it online http://ubuntuone.com/7BapyGzeikNy4SVvGKDOax
Feed it with your own set of arbitrary data to get a feeling for how mining rewards work.

And also refuting the "first to get there is important"... thats somewhat lame considering the first can most likely turn from day to day 60% of current hashrate. Everyday at owning that much is huge. And your counter point being its about sustained volume... You do realize the first actually has a HUGE impact on sustained right? Being multiple days at 100% gives you a pretty damn huge advantage that you (how suprisingly) forgot to include in your magical arbritrary formula backed up by pure logic thinking about important factors instead of speculations.

First, I didn't refute anything - just questioned the priority of being first. Second, you do realize that you're falling for the same kind of argumentative traps you're accusing me of here...

The above scripts provides a simple linear growth based yield analysis over 90 days with some arbitrary data (DISCLAIMER). It assumes the base TH to be 20 and two competitors A and B. A is first to the market and can add 1TH a day. A has 28 days head start before B starts putting out 2 TH a day. At day 28, A owns 60% hashrate. Hashrate of A and B is equal at day 55.
In this case total yield for A and B is 133K BTC and 91K BTC, respectively. To break even, B would have to add about 3TH a day instead of 2TH, leading to a yield of 118K BTC and 112K BTC for A and B, respectively.

Thus being second to the market by a month means you'd need to have a 3 fold volume output to break even with the profits of the leader on a 3 months schedule. It's less severe if you calculate on a 6 months schedule (only 2 fold volume required).

So yes first to the market is important, but if you can pump out a 10 fold volume, 1 month doesn't really matter in the long run.

And to actually answer to your request, unfortunatly, with the very small amount of information we have right now, its not even enough to think about doing some sort of market analyst. But as soon as there is relevant market information, I'll definitely give you guys some numbers that will give you a good idea.

With that attitude you never get a business started. You need ballpark figures to play with and get a feel for the market.

Meanwhile, we are predicting a 600k profit.

No, actually the prediction is 0<x<324K BTC for the 90 days beginning december. 20% is a conservative estimate for success. It's likely to be higher. Or 0% if it's a failure.

Calculating on a 3 month schedule with the 1THvs2TH scenario mentioned above the total split will be: 41% A, 28% B, 30% Base

Sorry, I just get annoyed by pseudo-intellectual, a few posts from the same guy, ok, just hopefully people dont take those as facts... But when the most active poster in a thread turns everything "i wish" as facts, its quite misleading.

Never claimed it and every individual who has a brain on its own is likely to get the picture. I am just sorry if I offended you in any way by providing some unsupported ballpark figures.

if you wanna resume what I say... : saying random stuff you believe forumulated as facts is just.... wrong

[matauc12]

If I'm not making any math errors this would be insanely profitable (for a while), and I'm just going to assume it's too good to be true

The asics are a quantum leap for mining. So insanely profitable is not unlikely - at least for a few weeks. However, it's a race. The one who has the first working chips will be able to profit the most. Others will just get a fraction of those profits. The real question is the timelag between chip product and mining operation and the rate at which new chips can be added.

At least with ASICMINER the community has an opportunity to participate in the enterprise. AFAIK BFL doesn't offer this - but my guess is they will be doing the same behind the scences and keep all the profits for themselves.

just to support my pseudo-intellectual claim... basically answerig just to disagree

[Jutarul]

If I'm not making any math errors this would be insanely profitable (for a while), and I'm just going to assume it's too good to be true

The asics are a quantum leap for mining. So insanely profitable is not unlikely - at least for a few weeks. However, it's a race. The one who has the first working chips will be able to profit the most. Others will just get a fraction of those profits. The real question is the timelag between chip product and mining operation and the rate at which new chips can be added.

At least with ASICMINER the community has an opportunity to participate in the enterprise. AFAIK BFL doesn't offer this - but my guess is they will be doing the same behind the scences and keep all the profits for themselves.

just to support my pseudo-intellectual claim... basically answerig just to disagree

You do it again - devaluing what I posted without pointing out why. I don't even know what you mean with pseudo-intellectual.
I will not answer to any of your posts unless you drop that attitude.