Internal Devaluation is functionally the same thing as inflation. I.e. opposite of deflation.
I don't see how halving wages is functionaly the same thing as inflation Cut wages by half = you earn half as much, things cost twice your wage to buy. 2x inflation = you earn half as much, things cost same as your wage Crap, you're right, Internal Devaluation sucks way worse But if people need security I am sure there will be services that provide just that. (Not a Bank)
The original purpose of a bank was to provide security. I just meant that we will have "banks" go back to doing their original function, which is to provide security. People will only go to a Bank to collect Interest, no Interest no Savings Bank, but will Banks be able to provide that or will they have Negative interest rates as FED is planing to? No Fractional Reserve -> No loans -> No Interest
So in my mind Saving Bank is a Non Entity, and that will mean that a lot of people (and capital) will be out of investment options
in private stashes.
Since bitcoin is already deflationary, there is no need for a savings account that pays a little interest. Investment Banks will be the only reason to actually invest for an interest return. So, people themselves will be the private stashes, looking to invest money directly, or will have a large stash that they will give their investment bank authority to invest for them. We'll go from many people with small amounts of money funding "savings" accounts, to few people with large amounts. I haven't bothered to consider the implications yet. Now on Investment Banks, which will capture only a handfull of capital, it will be risky bussiness.
My guess is that there will be many high profile scandals that will discredit and scare people away from banks,
sepecially if it is so easy to just Hodl and gain value.
I would hope that would be the case. Only people who know what they are doing, and have a personal vested interest in what's going on, should be investing. Imagine what the 2008 derivative market would have been if everyone actually questioned their bank about what it was doing with their money. Chances are such a market would have never materialized, or would at least have been properly insured. Is there any recorded case of anyone lending out bitcoins? even as we speak, with bitcoin being currently inflating?
BTCJam has been doing it for over a year now. There were (and probably still are) tons of personal lending in this forum's lending section. Regarding the Time constrains, for example Olive trees take decades to grow and start produce, so JITing food is easier said than done.
Farmers have a hard time even now, there are many risks that cannot be factored in the upfront investment to ensure timely returns, Oil and weather screw farmers systematicaly and increasingly, water is about to kick in (as real cost) as well as seeds. One would thought that Farmers beeing closer to the self-production model,positive "trade balance" making them winners in a deflative economy, but that would mean reverting to non-industrial farming, which cannot feed us all.
You're right, this may be a problem, but I think that it will actually push farming into more industrial rather than less. A large corporation will be able to track sales and demands, and handle risks, much better than small individual farmers. I guess things with long-term investment, like olives, will become way more expensive. At least for those newly planted. However, since we already have many things planted, and are transitioning from inflationary to deflationary economy, those olives, farms, and other produce is already there, and already producing every year. A new olive tree added to sustain the orchard will just be a cost of continuing to do business. (entrenched old money?) going back to the stock problem, bussiness already keep the lowest stock possible (there are still costs to maintain a stock) Problem is that because of higher risk now, involved by a provider failing to provide on time, you need to stock *more* at higher cost.
That's one option. The other is to diversify the risk by having multiple contracts with multiple smaller producers. I think that will be a cheaper and better option than to stock more, especially in a deflationary economy. Makes me wonder if inflationary economy is what pushed for large stocking to begin with. Ok so a root argument lies on whether a loan driven deflationary economy can exist. I don't think the backward looking dynamics allow that to happen. In deflation you are not been driven by Prospect, rather than Need, so you are bound to rush into bad calls here.
A loan assisted deflationary economy can exist, but a loan driven can not, you are right. I think we are living in the results of loan driven economies, with countries and everyone else all straining under enormous debt. I don't know if that's a better alternative than a smaller economy not entirely propped up by debt. You can still be driven by prospect, though. You just have to be sure that your prospects will provide a higher return than the deflation rate. So yes, there will be less people taking extreme risks on new ideas. It will be an environvent with too much entropy, the players will start rely on increasingly fewer providers (insourcing production).
It well may end like Japan, with large Vertical "Corpotations" actually more like Feuds, btw is japan's economy in truth deflative? is Japan's Model stable in isolation?
I, unfortunatey, have not studied Japan's recent economic situation as much as I should have, so can't comment. With regards to entropy and insourcing, maybe. Maybe we will have a lot of diversification, too, with much more reliance on production being kept to higher standards. Then there's the whole 3D printing thing on the horizon that may change business dynamics entirely... Contracts for delivery? Basically internal barter exchange, I give you so much steel, you give me so much coal. Besides, there will still be lending in a deflationary economy. It will just be shorter term, and for products that produce good economic value. So there will still be a buffer, but it will just be smaller.
Well contracts mean shit in bussiness, if a provider cant provide no contract can make him, you'll just swallow the delay and be wiser next time. And come on we just created freaking cryptocurrencies only to go back to barter economy? not arguing that it cannot work I can argue that it will be the way economy will respond. but that will reduce bitcoin to catch22. Heh, good point. Another option is to add discounting to the future purchase at the rate of deflation (somewhat being done now already). I have a contract where you will provide me a ton of steel 30 days from now for $1,000. If you take 45 days, I will only pay you $900. Pretty much the opposite of I sent you $1,000 worth of steel, and you have 30 days to repay me, or will repay $1,100 if you pay in 45 days. Though I guess this will delay production considerably in a JIT system, and would mainly work with established production flow. A lot of how our economy functions will have to change, though if the rate of deflation is only 1% to 3%, it may not have to be by much. Just watching the news: unemployment this month 27,9%,
Nevermind it's a spiral... deflation -> lower GPD -> Higher Debt/GPD ratio -> More austerity -> deflation
I see it as the steps by which a debt-based economy inevitably unwinds itself as it finds itself no longer able to borrow. Greece should be a warning to all the other countries who are rapidly getting to the point where they can't print and borrow any more to sustain themselves. It's seems that once you are in this hole you can't dig yourself up again, you need external help, you need a Marshal Plan...
Or you wait until you get to the actual economic rate of your country, not one propped up by debt, and start from there. Iceland had similar issues, and somewhat cut their suffering short by repudiating their debt, and starting over with much more strict limits on government borrowing and austerity. It has worked fairly well for them, even if a lot of people lost out on the debt. Countries with close knit communities and families will be able to survive this much better than countries with "rugged individualism" (looking at you, USA). On the other hand if we were a State in US, I bet FED would had done just that, and fuck the goverment directly afterwards.
That's somewhat what has actually been happeming. The FED is inflating like crazy, and the cities and counties that ended up with too much debt are getting fucked directly by having their governments replaced with state appointed unelected "emergency" leaders, who's job is typically to sell off everything the towns had and GTFO before the locals get too restless. If we had our own currency I don't think we would be in this mess, we would had a more sustainable and consolidated growth.
If Greece kept borrowing and paying out in austerity more than it received from taxes or generated economicaly, you would have a more sustainable growth right up to the point where your borrowing matched your interest payments, at which point no one would lend you any more, and you would either have to hyperinflate, or be in the same situation you are in now. You can't have economic growth without the actual underlying economy. If you are growing through inflation and debt, someone, somewhere, will have to pay for that everntually  Argentina and Venezuela were always under the shadow control of US, I tend to blame US policy (over the years) for that mess over there.
They are quite socialist, which is quite different from what US policy claims to promote. Maybe US meddling caused them to rebel and pushed them further into socialism? Deflation (price deflation) is economic growth being higher than the money supply. Less money to go around in a growing economy, more deflation. ...Deflation, or rather fixed money supply, at most pots a damper on economy, making it grow at a normal pace, instead of debt-inflated artificial pace.
I strongly disagree on growth, all dynamics lead to shrinking, If the economy has an any intend to grow it will hit the deflec(a)tory wall and bounce back, just as a recessing economy if inflated will bounce up. Yeah, that's kind of the point I was making. Growth in an economy, or more specifically investment growth, is limited by the highest interest return of the lowest risk asset. It doesn't really matter what it is. If bitcoin is not that asset, but, say, oil will give you the highest return for the lowest risk, then people would only invest in businesses that provide a higher return than oil does. Oil would end up being that deflectory wall that bounces the economy back. The problem with inflationary dollars is that they provide a very low wall, but at the expense of future debt. So the deflectory bounce back is basically being pushed further and further into the future, until it can't be sustained or paid for any more. Honestly, I'm too distracted to juggle all the economic variables in my head right now, with regards to the effects of this on inflationary and deflationary economies, so I'll leave that up to you. Healthy bussinesses have standing staff, producing products, before a customer even dreams he needs them.
in a deflation Bussinesses hire staff in time in order to produce what the customer asked them.
Not if the product has a chance of providing higher returns than the deflationary currency. Our tech sector operates under the threat of their investments becoming worthless due to competitors and obsolescence all the time. Also Staff is propably underqualified because who would invest in education?
The staff themselves, I hope. Not through loans, but by paying their way through education. I am being sarcastic, at the notion that the poor can ever get to survive much less save
If credit cards are not available to them, they won't have much of a choice. The poor will/need to raise their standard of living first, save second. Inflation/Deflation doesnot touch them, They don't give a fuck about bank accounts. All the poor care about is Jobs.
I believe part of what keeps the poor poor is debt. Credit cards, dependence on social programs, etc. Inflation also makes their wages constantly depreciate. Under deflation, they would get an automatic slow growth in income. Plus, if they want anything like a TV, they would have to save for it, too. China has a lot of poor people, almost no social programs, and a huge culture of savings, even among the very poor, because they know there won't be anyone to come save them if they get in trouble. This also leads to more closely knit communities with interdependence. I think that is better than what we have now, with everyone being very individualistic, with little empathy for others. Also, FYI, favelas aren't the result of a free market or a deflationary economy. On the contrary, Brazil has both regulatory and corruption issues, AND money issues.
you know corruption takes 2 to tango, how many US firms have paid off officials in 3rd worlds countries? how many corrupt officials had CIA installed? Which, again, is why I'm an anarcho-capitalist. Remove the power of the state to give handouts, and there won't be a reasin for firms to bribe officials. EDIT: apologies of quoting mayhem
Likewise  BTW, very impressed that you know so much at such a high level of understanding. It's refreshing to be so challanged and be forced to think so hard in a debate (especially on this forum  ) |
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The idea of storing wallets in some sort of a distributed online fashion, where all you (or anyone else) need to remember is a password to access those coins, is really no different from just keeping your coins in a brainwallet with the private key derived from that password. The proble is that if anyone else guesses that password, they will have access to all your money as well.
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UPDATE Hello all, and thank you for your support again, for personal reasons ( a very high intolerance to children who think that they have the world all figure out and can never be wrong as demonstrated here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=406850.0 ) I have decided to leave Bitcointalk.org and stick to a forum that i use that is not so over run with trolls, and morons. I would not have even suspected anything if you had not posted a link to that thread. So... thanks? Regarding the case itself, if it happens, I suspect it will end up with Guy claiming to be screwed by PayPal V.S. PayPal claiming it was following government rules and regulations. In a government court, I suspect the court will side with the one following government rules and regulations. This is why I'm an AnCap; companies can ask government to pass whatever regulations they want, and then claim they were just following the laws when they were doing rather unethical things (oil and chemical companies are experts at this) |
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Another one o consider. Not sure about tis from a charity perspective but maybe good advertising? Meetup Message from: Winslow S., Member of Washington, DC Bitcoin Users Group Bitcoin100 charity proposal Dear Dmitry, It was nice to meet you last night at the DC bitcoin meetup. As I mentioned, I'd like to get the "Environmental Film Festival in the Nation's Capital" to accept bitcoin donations. They are a nonprofit 501(c)(3), and their information page is here: http://www.dcenvironmentalfilmfest.org/about I think it would be helpful if they could be coaxed with a contingent bitcoin100 donation. Would you be willing to submit them for eligibility assessment? Thank you for your consideration, and for all your benefactor work. Best, Winslow Note, "Over 31,000 people attended the Festival and 80 percent of the programs were offered free to the public." That would be a lot of extra eyes on Bitcoin. |
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And another one: Dmitry, A Hat for Harold ( www.ahatforharold.org) is a 501(c)(3) public charity based in Silver Spring, MD and has just begun accepting Bitcoin. Is Bitcoin100 still donating $1000 to nonprofits accepting Bitcoin? If so, I would like to submit A Hat for Harold. Thank you for the consideration. Sherri Sherri is a Seventh-day Adventist, but upon pursuing the site, I see no mention of, nor links to the religious org, which is good. I feel we can safely assume that Sherri will use all donations via any and all means to the utmost good. Now, I need to knit a hat. ~Bruno Kucinskas Yeah, it looks like it's mostly for small counseling and job help type support. So I have no issues with any of this either. $1,000 donation sent: https://blockchain.info/tx/d6a8a1fcadb90390065288786cb68e9af8a42abbbdd273a7cb311882f515c58dand a reply received sherri@ahatforharold.orgThat's terrific! Thank you for your support...This donation will provide micro grants for 3-4 peer council meetings. Thank you. |
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Frankie again: Frankie Abralind to Zosia, me Please meet my friend Dmitry. We met in business school and he now runs a foundation that is looking for worthy nonprofits to donate to. He just donated $1,000 each to my friend Jessie's IBME and my friend Amy's Primate Education Network. I think he will really appreciate the mission of Collective Action for Safe Spaces. Dmitry's foundation is called BitCoin100. They arose out of the generosity of a few early adopters of an amazing currency called BitCoins (if you haven't heard of them, this might help) to promote the value of the currency for nonprofits: when donors make their donations in BitCoins, the recipient nonprofit keeps 100% (hence the name). None of the funds are lost to credit card or processing fees. BitCoin100 donates $1,000 to selected nonprofits who agree to accept the currency on their donation page. You will be immediately able to convert the donation into USD. It doesn't take much work to get it set up, but I know the money would make a valuable difference at Collective Action. @Dmitry, I met Zosia at a class at the Foundation Center. She works for a great small nonprofit that fights public sexual harassment and assault. They had a recent successful campaign to push DC Metro to be more supportive in preventing harassment, and I know they could do a lot of good with a $1,000 donation. Good luck! and their reply Zosia Sztykowski < zosia@collectiveactiondc.org> Jan 8 (1 day ago) to Frankie, me Thanks so much, Frankie! It's nice to "meet" you, Dmitry. To give you a little more background on Collective Action for Safe Spaces (CASS), we've been working in the DC metro area since 2009 to empower people in the community to end public sexual harassment and assault. Here’s a sampling of what we’ve accomplished in the past year: Worked with WMATA to launch a PSA campaign against harassment and assault on the Metro, and to develop its next phases, as Frankie mentioned! This year, WMATA will be training all 3,000 of its frontline employees as a direct result of our advocacy. These efforts make it one of the most progressive -- if not the most progressive -- transit agencies in the world on sexual assault prevention. Educated hundreds of people, including members of the public, local community groups, American University students and youth, about the problem of public sexual harassment and assault and how to end it. Spearheaded a [urlhttp://www.collectiveactiondc.org/2013/12/13/8-number-of-amazing-emotional-hours-we-spent-at-yesterdays-dc-council-hearing/]policy advocacy effort[/url] to change the way sexual assault cases are handled by DC police. We did all of this with a staff composed entirely of volunteers. We didn't hire our first paid staff member (me, incidentally!) until November 2013. Given what you've funded in the past, I think we'd be a good match. I do know about bitcoins and I love the mission of your foundation! For small nonprofits like us, the 3% donation processing fee charged by most third-party platforms is pretty significant. Do you require a full proposal from the organizations you fund? Just let me know what information you need from me! Feel free to reach out via email or phone if you have any questions or would like to discuss CASS's work. I'll look forward to hearing from you. Best, Zosia I didn't know DC Was so rapey. |
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I remember this, and there is no problem with this org whatsoever. Rassah, please take care of this one ASAP. Thanks, bud. Awww, damnit! That would be the way I would love to travel, getting to see the life and culture of a country from within, but I am certain I will forget about this group when I go on my next trip  Oh well. $1,000 sent https://blockchain.info/tx/c5b5550ba3dca83081ef0b1ac13a044b9fea0a61ad6911b204aeeac34418b779Rassah, it would be awesome if you could split the amount into two transactions for two days.
... oops I typically scan through the messages one by one and take care of business as I go through them. Hopefully this won't cause problems. |
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Mmm today I learned that if you take a microwave, disable all of the safety features, make a crucible and stucco it in graphite, while you can melt metal in it, it spews radiation everywhere.
It's just microwave radiation. It's not actually "radioactive" Says the guy who said, "It's art! It's not actually a "coffee table"." So, are you coming tothe Miami conference? I need to smack you. |
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Around 4.1 million people work in fast food right now just in the US.
What sort of "unforeseen job opportunities" will be awaiting them?
And how will most of them increase their IQ enough to obtain such jobs?
They will work part time while taking college and university classes in the evenings or weekends, and then have middle to upper class level employment opportunities in whatever they studdied and got degrees in. That's what I did when I worked in fast food. |
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if we eliminate the power vacuum of democracy.
Considering that (at least according to you) I have been stalking your every post, I haven't seen you propose how to eliminate or counter it yet (yes, I'm aware of this power vacuum, too, and have my own ideas) There were no dumb mistakes written by me, only your inability to comprehend what is written.
The inability to comprehend, or more specifically the pointing out of what were dumb mistakes, weren't just by me. It was also by quite a few of the long-time bitcoin users, miners, and even a few developers. So, when you making proclamations alone in a crowd, and the crowd says "that doesn't make sense," yes, it could be because you are just "too smart" for us, but it is more likely that you are either wrong, or are just really awful at explaining things. See you in a day or two, when you inevitably come to post here again. P.S. I hope you're hurrying up on that altcoin of yours, because this thing http://ethereum.org is coming, and it will likely kick the ass of whatever you have planned. |
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So your government tried to do excessive lending in a deflationary economy, and got burned. Why is anyone surprised?
Goverment tried to deflate the economy, the technical term they used was "Internal devaluation", and got burned. Internal Devaluation is functionally the same thing as inflation. I.e. opposite of deflation. I recall the advice that if you dont have your bitcoins in your wallet, they are not your own. Why would anyone want to keep his bitcoins in a Bank?
In case of investment, banks can manage inestments, including looking for good places to invest, and making sure what is owed is paid back to them, much better than individuals. Regarding security, having all your welath at home. if you have a lot of it, is not very safe, since it opens you up to robbery and torture to try to get you to reveal your password. Banks in the future may use a multi-signature system, where they only keep one of the signatures required to spend your bitcoin, and block any transactions that are over the daily limit or that they deem suspicious, without your consent. It's a lot harder to steal money from you when it requires taking you into a secured building with armed guards, just to get the second half of your password. So what we are only left is Investment Brokers : Investment Banks, Hedge Funds : The reason we are in this mess.
The specific reason we are in this mess is because investment manbs and savings banks were one and the same. People were putting money into savings, thinking their money was safe and will not be used for extremely risky investments, but banks used it for that, anyway. This meant that people essentially gambled their money on high risk investments without being told about it, and had to be bailed out, otherwise they would have lost all their savings. With bitcoin we can decouple savings and investments, where investment banks and hedge funds will be specifically that, and anyone putting money into those will know that there are risks. Food is even more of a JIT thing that IT. IT takes years to develop (build new manufacturing plants), and takes months to become obsolete, while food takes months to grow, and spoils within weeks.
Ok you are obviously detached from the food industry... Possibly. I admit I don't have much experience in those businesses... Trees, Vines, Livestock. you know waiting things to grow... Unless your plan is to only eat bread and noodles...
What about them? They are goods that have a very strong demand, so you can ask for higher price when they have actually finished growing. (remember, if deflation is fairly constant, everyone can plan for it and adjust prices accordingly) Not to talk about efficiency even, JIT means that you constanly flush the pipelines, I guess you know what that means...
It means you keep as little inventory as possible, and thus as less debt as possible. You only spend (or borrow) for the couple of items you were asked to produce, and pay back the loan in full almost right away, since you don't have anything sitting around. If not ask a fabric manufacturer this question "Do you shut down machines for repairs if your product has faults?" take a wild guess at the answer.
Yes they do? What's your point? You don't take out loans on products that don't exist because you are not producing them. What Incentive is there to JIT produce now rather than wait a day and screw the customers over?
A few. If you borrowed money to produce, your loan is getting more expensive to pay back. If you already produced the components that go into the final product, you don't want them sitting around losing value. And finally, if you don't produce now, your competitors will. a lot of unbased Ifs in this statement, You cant borrow money Why not? You can borrow, you just have to make sure whatever you are adding to the economy has greater value than the money deflation. You will not have already produced/stocked/procured/preordered/repayed the said components
Why not? You have a contract/advance they cant go to competitors
Your competitors don't have to go to you, they can use other producers. If you produce for WalMart, they have a contract with you, and they decide to sit and do nothing, Target and Amazon won't care about your contract, and will get products from their own producers, screwing both WalMart and you. It would be stupid to sign a contract that lets your business customer sit around and do nothing while preventing you from selling to someone else. The economy is not a planar graph to distribute the risk evenly accross the chain, It contains cycles, in that model all those cycles will be negative loops and phased out one by one until everyone is disconnected and becoming a single node of Producer-Consumer or a Planar graph with one way flow of capital : Mercantilism, expect peace to ensue
Your assumption is that goods flow from A -> B accross a chain right? so you can hedge amortize or whatever the risk, deflation etc the problem with chains is you know "the strength of the chain ...." What happens if nodes accross that chain start to fail on deliveries, how can that happen? Lets just say that a Coal provider needs a constant supply of steel machinery, A Steel Provider needs a constant supply of coal, without stocking up resources, not mentioning workforce here, they will quickly be deadlocked waiting for some external energy (money) to kickstart them. So In order to get a just a single steel pin, you have everytime to pay upfront the cost of kickstarting the whole coal-steel industry. In simple words economies of scale rely on full Buffers, which you have just made uneconomic to maintain. Contracts for delivery? Basically internal barter exchange, I give you so much steel, you give me so much coal. Besides, there will still be lending in a deflationary economy. It will just be shorter term, and for products that produce good economic value. So there will still be a buffer, but it will just be smaller. Debt related, Deflation inducing.
To sum up we agree that Greece is in Deflation ok?
Sure. The big difference in the disagreement is that you seem to be saying that deflation is causing the economic woes, and I am saying that economic woes, which were due to government failures and debt, caused deflation. If there was no deflation, if Greece was free to print their own money as much as they wanted to stave off their economic problems, you wouldn't have a better economy. You would, in fact, have the exact same issues that Argentina and Venezuela are having now, with severe inflation, wages becoming nearly worthless, and a more authoritarian government implementing severe capital controls that prevent you from taking out too much money, moving money across borders, and likely 25% import taxes on anything you buy online. With deflation everyone gets lazy and postpones to the future, ventures, investments, cunsumption. Do you find that healthy for the labour market?
Deflation (price deflation) is economic growth being higher than the money supply. Less money to go around in a growing economy, more deflation. So if everyone was beng lazy and postponing the future, there would be no deflation, because there would be no growing economy to cause it. Deflation, or rather fixed money supply, at most pots a damper on economy, making it grow at a normal pace, instead of debt-inflated artificial pace. Why hire personel NOW, when you can hire personel when you get an order even a preorder/advance, why consume now but when you get a job?
That's no different from how things are now. You don't hire people to sit around and do nothing, regardless of whethere there's inflation or deflation. So you hire someone now, if someone else needs your product now. The poor... Ah the poor will start to mine bitcoins! oh wait they dont have asics bummer. They cant even afford power as power is now *based* on bitcoin's value, there is not enough anyway... BTC miners eat it all up....
Why would the poor mine bitcoin? The poor don't own cash printing presses, either. I think you misunderstood. I only implied that the poor will be able to save for the future, and actually have their savings add up to something. Inflation means the poor net worth will be continuously going negative, as they are incentivised to continue borrowing to live (especially if inflationary wages keep loosing value and they don't get raises), while deflation means the poor net worth will be continuously going positive, since they'll be incentivized to save before spending. Did you know that if your net worth is $1, you are richer than most people in 1st world? Also, FYI, favelas aren't the result of a free market or a deflationary economy. On the contrary, Brazil has both regulatory and corruption issues, AND money issues. |
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I have however devised a plan that may or may not work. If it does, cool. If not, oh well.
Because of how much of an ass I am, if anyone wants to keep me off a topic, donate to the addy in my siggy and I'll back off.
Your business plan is not taking into account that you can just be banned for being annoying. Ask Matthew. |
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A gryphon is not a dinosaur  |
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I want Atlas back, not you.
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Mmm today I learned that if you take a microwave, disable all of the safety features, make a crucible and stucco it in graphite, while you can melt metal in it, it spews radiation everywhere.
It's just microwave radiation. It's not actually "radioactive" |
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Intead we tried to deflate the economy and the result is that while assets lost value (and in the cypriot case even the savings), while the debts are not only stable but mounting as goverment increased taxation. So if we now magicaly switch to bitcoin even at a constant rate, situation will not revert only accelarate.
So your government tried to do excessive lending in a deflationary economy, and got burned. Why is anyone surprised? BTW Banks dont have reason/opportunity to exist in an deflationary economy anyway.
Banks can provide extra security, or can provide investment services. People will just have to specifically state their intent to invest money in a possibly risky venture, as opposed to being told that they are putting money into safe savings accounts, while banks gamble with them without telling anyone. 1) There can still be banks. Loans will just have to be short-term, and for things that are actually worth something...
2) Just In Time production is already almost a gospel in our economy...
3) Once deflation is stable, preorders, or sale prices, can be set to account for that deflation...
Nope forget about it can<>will, Banks are non entities in the Bitcoin economy. Christ you cant fucking JIT FOOD, OIL, get out of IT Industry mindset, there are TIME contrains that work against you in that model, that will get populations freezing, starving waiting for philanthropy by the OT devs. Food is even more of a JIT thing that IT. IT takes years to develop (build new manufacturing plants), and takes months to become obsolete, while food takes months to grow, and spoils within weeks. With food, you also constantly have to adjust between growing too much, and letting it go to waste, or growing too little, and not having enough. Luckily, we've mostly had problems with the former. What time constraints are you talking about exactly? What Incentive is there to JIT produce now rather than wait a day and screw the customers over?
A few. If you borrowed money to produce, your loan is getting more expensive to pay back. If you already produced the components that go into the final product, you don't want them sitting around losing value. And finally, if you don't produce now, your competitors will. The economy is not a planar graph to distribute the risk evenly accross the chain, It contains cycles, in that model all those cycles will be negative loops and phased out one by one until everyone is disconnected and becoming a single node of Producer-Consumer or a Planar graph with one way flow of capital : Mercantilism, expect peace to ensue
Sorry, no idea what you are walking about. What cycles? (annual, buy/sell, borrow/repay?) What negative loops? Caused by what? Disconnected from what? Right now within greece the functional problem is deflation. Borrowing is the kludge.
Deflation is a shrinking amount of currency, or the economy expanding faster than the money supply (depending on whom you ask). Euro is not shrinking in supply, and Greece's economy is not expanding at all, from what I know. So your problem is that Greece took on too many loans, became way too risky, and now no one wants to lend anyone any more. we have shrinking amount of Euros within greece as we have 1. Savings flights (especialy after what happend in Cyprus) Why are people taking their savings out of the country? Are they expecting that Greece will try to pay off government debt by seizing savings? If that's the case, I think bitcoin would be a HUGE benefit, since even though it's deflationary, it will keep the money in Greece 2. Investment flight (none is willing to invest with a negative outlook)
Isn't this also from excessive risk, both from concern that investments will be taken or nationalized, and from concern that too much was borrowed and it's risky to lend any more? 3. Increasing Taxation to cover external loans.
More debt-related issues... 4. No new internal loans by the banks as they are now zombies: no fractional reserve induced inflation (No savings, To many loans)
And again... All those bailout money simply went to debt restructuring, nothing ended up inside Greek economy. Do the math
Math says your problem is 100% governmentdebt related, not deflation or inflation related. From what you describe, deflation is just a symptom of fear of future government policy. Get the government and the gov debt out, and outside investment will have no reason to stay out, and neither will savers have a reason to get their money out. That's what thoughtfan was saying. Taking money from savings to pay for government's debt mistakes doesn't help anyone, especially not the savers.
No he was saying that inflating the economy alleviates the Debtors at the expense of the Savers, which is not what happened in Cyprus as they got deflated and both were screwed Inflating the economy (printing more money and making it worth less) DOES alleviate debtors (who's nominal loans are now worth less than before) at the expense of savers (who's nominal cash savings are nor worth less than before). That did not happen in Cyprus, as they didn't inflate. They simply took money from savers, and used it to pay their government debt's, not everyone's. I am sure if Greek government took money from savers, and used it to pay your debt instead of it's own, you are a debtor would feel alleviated, at the expense of the savers they took it from. You were asking for anyone to say it, so I will: Deflation is good, inflation is bad:
In an inflationary economy, it is cheaper to borrow than to save....
On the other hand, in a deflationary economy, people are incentivised to save and become self-sufficient, instead of relying on government...
Sure if you can withstand 80% UNEMPLOYMENT, Total collapse of the Middle class, Urban centers, Industry, and Return of the Feudal Landlords. Why would there be 80% unemployment? If you can hire people at any wage you want, you will hire them. Everyone always needs something done. As for middle class, the opposite will happen. Right now poor class stays poor, because they can't save or do anything to get out. All they can do is work 8+ hours a day and buy everything on credit, and that's it. With deflation, their savings will start to actually add up to something, and they will be able to move to middle class much easier. When has economy collapsed from just deflation alone? (Great Depression was a debt spiral spurned on by deflation, just as your situation is a debt spiral spurned on by somewhat of a deflation). |
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Holy fuck! How many hours over how many days does AnonyMiint waste typing up all this stuff? And does he have a list of his own posts he thinks are important? I've never seen anyone quote themselves over and over to refute points or emphasize about how they are right about something, as much as he does. Hell, I'm sure he may be intelligent about some things, but I totally lost all respect for him when he started posting rather dumb mistakes about his ideas on how to attack bitcoin, and started attacking with ad hominems anyone who pointed out the rather blatant errors in his understanding of how bitcoin works. As for this political and economic diatribe, I used to read it, but at this point it's a waste of time, because he can't seem to figure out how to say something without taking up two pages to say it, and whenever you point out something that seems off or that you disagree with, he either attacks you as being an idiot, or replies with too many things to bother with. Seriously, it would take me a week to go through, digest, and refute his crap, but as soon as I did that, he'd come back with a moonth's worth of more bullshit, including moving goalposts, claims he didn't say what he did, etc. It's actually a fairly common tactic of creating such huge posts with so many points and issues that it becomes impossible to sit down, review, debate, and try to refute ("shotgun journalism?") Seriously, big fancy words that take up pages to not really say much of anything don't change a big-headed self-important loony idiot into a brilliant person (that only works for university professors...). Please don't fall for his brand of self-advertising bullshit. So hopefully this is goodbye and best wishes from AnonyMint.
Yeah, hopefully, but somehow I seriously fucking doubt it. P.S. I almost never attack or deride anyone (I may point out a dumb statement sometimes, though). I don't even have anyone on my ignore list. AnonyMint is a very special exception. |
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If I don't spend all the money, will change go back to the paper wallet?? Just want to double-check. |
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USA and EU would propably rather shutdown Internet than lose control over Euro or Dollar.
That would be pretty fun to watch, as every single citizen in the country protests to the point where the politicians who did that are literally dragged out of their government buildings and shot. Well do you expect their citizens watch their hard earned assets vaporized so bitcoin whales come to scoop them up, and not demand their Gs to fence-double-firewall their net and if that fails to shutit down? In our current system, citizens don't have hard earned assets. They have tons of debt. So they won't care. And those who do have hard earned assets in the form of cash will likely keep converting them to dollars. The only ones who will be SEVERELY hurt by this are the lenders holding the debts of the citizens, since fiat losing value against bitcoins and eventually inflating like crazy means citizen's debt is shrinking into nothing. Citizens will support this, wealthy asset holders who know what they are doing will support it, and banks who lend money to citizens will get screwed, if not wiped out. The only way for a merchant to stay in bussiness is to offload the risk to ... B) producer to delay payment until sold.
This results in a regression of risk down the chain of producers, but the risk is ultimately taken on by the bank. ... Chances are, the merchant and the bank will be the same, or rather the merchant will be operating on savings instead of on debt. In bitcoin there is no Bank hence merchant opperates on savings which translate to goods that depreciate both against bitcoin as well as against "errosion" so why a merchant to even bother stock up? So the risk is eventually offloaded to either consumer or producer. The producer will have to invest savings to equipment, assets, and general means of productions that depreciate, have to deal with merchands that promise to pay when and if they sell, takes all the risk of faults cause none will insure him, so why bother? He will wait for preorders and possible advance payments and only them begin producing. So the consumer will have to preorder/prepay goods at execive prices in his view and wait unknown time until delivery, so he will buy only what he absolutely needs: byebye to consumerism? Hell Im in, if only I wasn't that brainwashed to need all the shit that are on TV 1) There can still be banks. Loans will just have to be short-term, and for things that are actually worth something, as opposed to for anything at all just to beat inflation. Less garbage for sale, more durable high-quality products, and less impact on environment from resource use and garbage. 2) Just In Time production is already almost a gospel in our economy. Inventory depreciates way faster than money inflates already, so it won't be that much of a difference if that inflation changes to deflation. 3) Once deflation is stable, preorders, or sale prices, can be set to account for that deflation. Also, if you preorder, aka invest, in someone doing something for you now with inflationary money, the money they receive will keep losing value, and they will be working for less and less as time goes on. If you invest in someone using a deflationary currency, such as giving 20BTC to OpenTransaction developers, as time goes on, that 20BTC ($2,000 at the time) will keep going up in value, giving them more and more to work with if they only use small amounts of it at a time. I am talking on experience here. I live in F*** Greece, we are deflating for 4 years now.
The euro is not deflationary, so that's bullshit. Greece problem is not deflation, it's excessive borrowing. Right now within greece the functional problem is deflation. Borrowing is the kludge. Deflation is a shrinking amount of currency, or the economy expanding faster than the money supply (depending on whom you ask). Euro is not shrinking in supply, and Greece's economy is not expanding at all, from what I know. So your problem is that Greece took on too many loans, became way too risky, and now no one wants to lend anyone any more. The problem is entirely from debt and it's risk, not from any money supply issues (deflation). Savers? tell that to the Cypriots....
Did the confiscation of wealth in Cyprus from the savers make Cypriots better off? Cause op was saying at the expense of, and you seem to be disagreeing with something... Yes because the cypriots were *NOT* alleviated and *yet* the savers were fukced That's what thoughtfan was saying. Taking money from savings to pay for government's debt mistakes doesn't help anyone, especially not the savers. It was the euro that enabled the mercantilistic? attack on the south, just as bitcoin will create opportunities for new mercantilistic policies globaly, and that *never* ended in War.
Actually, it was inflationary currency and easy credit that enabled those things. You were asking for anyone to say it, so I will: Deflation is good, inflation is bad: In an inflationary economy, it is cheaper to borrow than to save. It's better to buy something now with a loan, and pay the loan off over time, since even though you are maying more in numbers, you are paying less in actual value. A $600 a month mortgage on a new house now will feel like a $250 a month mortgage 30 years from now. As a result, we now have an economy where 3/4th of people who reach age of 65 have less than $100,000 in their savings and retirement (making them dependent on government), average credit card debt is around $15,000 per person, almost no one has a positive net worth (they owe more than they have), and governments are to the point where most of their tax income is going to pay off debt instead of to pay for infrastructure and actual government services. I would even propose that much of the enormous economic growth over the last 50 years is fake, sustained by borrowiing that will have to be repaid later, and if it can't be, will result in the economies of the governments with massive borrowing dropping right back down to where they would be if no one ever borrowed (i.e. to the level of the country's net worth). On the other hand, in a deflationary economy, people are incentivised to save and become self-sufficient, instead of relying on government. People would likely be more picky in what they spend their money on, and won't be buying as much. Yes, that will slow our economy considerably compared to what it is in our inflationary system, but as I mentioned above, our current booming inflationary economy many not be "real" to begin with, and may be a giant cycle of global-sized boom and bust. We're just now getting to the bust. In a deflationary economy, there will be booms and busts as well, but more frequent, and much more shallow. Plus less coonsumerism will be much better for the environment. Oh, and don't forget that poor people don't have access to the stock market. Cash is their only means of saving and "investing" for the future. Right now, our inflationary system is robbing their wealth, and giving it to the banks that "print" the new money. A deflationary system will actually allow many poor people to save, invest, and get themselves out of poverty. |
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