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1321  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: June 20, 2014, 06:49:05 AM
i guess you really cant tell things from just 24 hours....but







this is amazing. get it like this every 24 hours

The site total profit is approaching 19,000BTC; next goal for investors will be 20,000BTC; maybe it is a good time to divest in hope of a player winning big followed by investors divesting and then reinvest getting a bigger share of the bankroll and waiting for the whale to come play again Grin
1322  Other / Off-topic / Re: What exactly is the most important thing in our life? on: June 20, 2014, 06:45:16 AM
I'd say happyness... but lets face it.. we are all in it for mighty dollar... then retire.. and focus on happyness Smiley
sex is boring... 3some eeeh.. not sure what is left ? having  kids ? is that exciting ? lol i guess people like it, seems popular :p

I think we are in for the mighty bitcoin here or sometimes Gold Grin

many find it in helping others, supporting the weak,stopping inequality..

once your goal becomes to help others instead of yourself you will find the real meaning of life

To succeed in life you have to think about the emotions of others and care about them, they will care about you and you will achieve your goals
1323  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 20, 2014, 06:42:50 AM
The mathematics of Martingale are actually well understood. A typical brick and mortar casino will often have a $10 minimum and $500 maximum or a ratio of 50 to 1.
$10 first bet
$20 2nd bet
$40 3rd bet
$80 4th bet
$160 5th bet
$320 6th bet
$630 minimum required bankroll to play Martingale.

So if you are playing Martingale the minimum number of plays to double your $630 bankroll is 63 plays (at which point you will be kicking yourself for playing only $10 each time). The maximum number of plays required is  6*63=378 plays.

Now this is the important point that people forget to calculate. What is the average number of plays to give you a streak of six losses in a row? It is 126 plays for coin flipping, 120 plays for Just Dice, 110 plays for European roulette, and 97 plays for American roulette.

So choose your game, and ask how many units you will be ahead in the expected number of plays. How likely are you to double your bankroll?

You have better odds if you play 500$ to get 630$ in one bet Grin It may be less fun because you will play less but mathematically speaking your expected loss is lower
1324  Other / Off-topic / Re: FIFA World Cup 2014!!! on: June 20, 2014, 06:18:38 AM
Can be Italy, if italy loses to costa rica tomorrow, they will need to play another break or make match against suarez uruguay.

Group D is still unclear. If Italy wins both their matches, and England defeats Costa Rica (very much possible), then we'll be left with three teams at 3 points each (Uruguay, CR, and England). Only Italy is assured of a PQF spot right nowGrin

If they lose both games , they are out of the game.
Remember 2010 , there is no such thing as for sure in football.

So it looks pretty likely that Eng are toast
Eng, Spain...wonder which of the big nations is next

Can be Italy, if italy loses to costa rica tomorrow, they will need to play another break or make match against suarez uruguay.

There is no way Italy loses to Costa Rica. That was a fluke win for them.

Italy will contain them and get the win.

Italy has it's way of making a mess when they are favorites and winning when they are treated like underdogs.
It's one of the team that make me stay away from betting when they are involved



A bet has already been made on Italy  Wink They can surely win if they play the way they know how to play, I see them go very far in the competition
1325  Economy / Services / Re: [PrimeDice] [Highest Paid Signature] Earn up to 2.4 BTC/Month by Posting on: June 20, 2014, 06:16:04 AM
Thank you so much for the payment Stunna, PD's signature campaign is really trustworthy!
1326  Economy / Economics / Re: $50k to Invest - Convince Me! on: June 19, 2014, 09:18:06 PM
50k serious money ? hahaha
I'm 22 year toyboy with 300 btc , this is bitcoin and your nothing my man.
Go pump some alt coin , maybe your ego will get satisfied .

You look like you have something to prove, you are frustrated and you are not happy

Care to sign an address which has 300BTC to give some credibility to your claim? Wink
1327  Other / Off-topic / Re: FIFA World Cup 2014!!! on: June 19, 2014, 09:16:12 PM
Goal for Uruguay, what a Goal,

He scored twice; it was hard to watch England fail, they still have a chance technically even if they have 0points and the 3 other teams have 3points
1328  Economy / Economics / Re: $50k to Invest - Convince Me! on: June 19, 2014, 07:34:18 PM
Seem like everyone giving you advice think bitcoin still go up many folds over the foreseeable future.

Beside dotcom bubble which make a small number of early investors extremely wealthy, I can't think of any investment that will go up exponentially for late investors.

Bitcoin market cap is 7.7Billions it could reach hundreds of billions of market cap of today's dollar considering the potential

For exemple, Paypal valuation is 40Billions

Bitcoin has many other competitors out there more than Paypal. And governments around the world are doing everything they can to discourage its usage.


Lots of people think that Bitcoin is great to do payments. I'm not sure if payment-protocol is the perfect use-case for Bitcoin.
But what I do know is, that Bitcoin is great in what it was intentionally ment to be. Good for hoarding. Good to put your savings away.

Costs you 0.- to hold it over years, compared to other commodities

The clue is that bitcoin needs to attract people, but it's only attracting people if the price is right.
And the price is only right if the chart is right.

The difference between the .com bubble and the Bitcoin bubble is that the .com companies burn money every day (because they have to pay bills, employees..... ).
The Bitcoin value doesn't get burned away by just sitting there. It only goes down if people sell and quit with Bitcoin. If more people leave than enter.

I'm here to stay


I can add to your argumentation that you can travel with your wealth stored in a brain wallet and it's great to wire money
1329  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Very Early Adopters on: June 19, 2014, 07:32:46 PM
I am bullish on Bitcoin but I fail to see wide mainstream adoption until people start to get their salaries in Bitcoins. It's something like all the geeks are already here, but for average Joe to join, things must be much much simpler. Given that + the fact there are many many considerable players in altcoin field, I'm not too confident another bubble is coming soon...

Maybe companies can use bitcoins without the clients to know for international transactions and it can become a more widely mean of storing wealth, I think Bitcoin can get to a valuation of a hundred billions without massive adoption or speculation on a massive adoption
1330  Other / Off-topic / Re: FIFA World Cup 2014!!! on: June 19, 2014, 07:29:47 PM
Looks like Spain won't even get one!

Crazy how bad they got destroyed this World Cup

Incredible...

How about Brazil? I have the feelings they can come back and win it all

Brazil have strong players but I don't think they will win it all

I think this is Germany's World Cup for the taking

Let's bet on Germany then Grin

Did you guys bet?
1331  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: June 19, 2014, 07:27:36 PM
maybe there is a simple explanation for the decreasing turnover at just-dice.
In the northern hemisphere it´s summer and that means people spend more time away from their computers
and are busy with other stuff.

I think the simplest explanation is that there are a limited number of people who:

a) have a lot of Bitcoins
b) are willing to risk them on a gambling site
c) know about Just-Dice

Most of those people already lost their coins.

In the early days we had a number of people who came to the site to bankroll it and who ended up gambling instead. It's a kind of natural selection that the people who held on to their coins are the people who are able to resist that temptation; the strongest survived and are less willing to take risks with their share of the bankroll.

We still get some who do it, but less than we used to.

It is a very interesting explanation. Don't you think some players buy bitcoins to gamble? And what is your take on advertising the website?
1332  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Argentina, the next Cyprus ? on: June 19, 2014, 07:00:39 PM
Europe will buy bitcoins aggressively when a few big banks will fail and they will print money to reimburse depositor or perform an haircut on savings

Quite a few big banks failed in Cyprus last year. But no one rushed to gather their Bitcoins. Most of the people remain ignorant about Bitcoins, and they will trust the banks no matter what they do.  Angry


 Bitcoin started raising in price after Cyprus
1333  Other / Off-topic / Re: What exactly is the most important thing in our life? on: June 19, 2014, 06:26:31 PM
I had a dream about this a few weeks ago where I was sitting at a table across from a mysterious man who asked me this.

Surprised, I thought for a moment or two, then said, "Love"

He smiled.

Love is actually a good answer, I am surprise of the straight forward answers like oxygen or food!
1334  Economy / Speculation / Re: Argentina heading for a repeat of 2001 collapse on: June 19, 2014, 06:24:38 PM
This entrepreneur, is from Argentina.  Lived through 2 liquidations of his family's wealth.

Edit: I'm too new to post links so just Google:

WSJ Bitcoin Price…to $1 Million

$1 million is a stretch, I recently calculated that if bitcoin was to replace all REAL money (ie hard cash and bank account deposits) commonly known as m0, that it would be worth about $450,000. Of course if it HAD replaced everything, then that sentance would be a nonsense, as we would need to compare it's value to something that still existed. See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=646186.msg7255495#msg7255495

That was a great thread (and nice calculations)

Using the M3 money supply would give a value of more than 1m$ since only M3 in USD is more than 10trillions and there is a bit shy of 13m bitcoins

If you want to speculate widely you can add the value of Gold as a reserve : a few trillions so a few hundred of thousands
If you read the above link you will see that opinion seems to favour narrow money, simply because money that is not doing anything (languishing on ledgers is not acting as a communicator of value). If Bernanke electronically prints up 100 trillion and sticks it on a govt ledger (or some other governments ledger as treasuries), it doesnt affect day to day scarcity of dollars so doesnt affect price. But you are right, if we used M3 the figure would be much bigger since M3 is actually running at about 100 trillion globally.

The issue is due the massive fractionalization the FED enables, the ratio of "base money" M0 to circulated money M3 is much higher today than under a sound money system.

It is only the FEDs printing press that enables the banks to run at the 10x or 30x leverage ratio's today. This is possible because if any run starts the FED can provide liquidity on demand.

When the US was on a gold standard bank leverage never went above 2x and the ratio of base money to circulated money was much closer. Since bitcoin is a sound money system it makes a lot more sense to consider M3 as the target because significantly lower leverage in the system  is closer to what we'd see.

People use to care if their bank was taking too much risk because there was no state guarantee of deposits

I think the potential for Bitcoin is in the hundreds of billions of dollars of valuation within a few years
1335  Economy / Speculation / Re: Argentina heading for a repeat of 2001 collapse on: June 18, 2014, 10:14:29 PM
This entrepreneur, is from Argentina.  Lived through 2 liquidations of his family's wealth.

Edit: I'm too new to post links so just Google:

WSJ Bitcoin Price…to $1 Million

$1 million is a stretch, I recently calculated that if bitcoin was to replace all REAL money (ie hard cash and bank account deposits) commonly known as m0, that it would be worth about $450,000. Of course if it HAD replaced everything, then that sentance would be a nonsense, as we would need to compare it's value to something that still existed. See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=646186.msg7255495#msg7255495

That was a great thread (and nice calculations)

Using the M3 money supply would give a value of more than 1m$ since only M3 in USD is more than 10trillions and there is a bit shy of 13m bitcoins

If you want to speculate widely you can add the value of Gold as a reserve : a few trillions so a few hundred of thousands
1336  Local / Altcoins (Français) / Re: Regrets, pertes, racontez vos déboires on: June 18, 2014, 10:09:33 PM
Je ne vais pas sortir le sempiternel j'aurais dû acheter dès que j'ai entendu parler de bitcoins mais mes regrets par rapport aux bitcoins sont d'avoir perdus des bitcoins en faisant confiance à des opérateurs non dignes de confiance mais c'est à peu près tout
1337  Economy / Digital goods / Re: 18000 used bitcoin private keys (brainwallet) on: June 18, 2014, 10:07:53 PM
can't you generate them yourself for new addresses?

Yes you can, it will take you a program and some time to do so

0.05 saves you the time
1338  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another positive Bitcoin story on Yahoo's main portal on: June 18, 2014, 10:06:43 PM
Interesting article, I learned that CheapAir.com is accepting bitcoins

Pointshound make you win bitcoins when you book an hotel
1339  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 18, 2014, 10:05:33 PM
I think I have said repeatedly that betting strategies don't change the underlying probability of the game. People remember series of wins and losses, but dice, RNG, and steel balls have no memory. Each trial is independent.

At the same time, I said that it doesn't hurt. While that is true, there is a tendency to work in smaller units with betting strategies.

For instance consider the case of 13BTC and you would like to double before losing your investment. If you flat bet 1BTC at a time, you have a 43.5% chance of doubling before you lose all 13 BTC.

Now a Martingale player may want to play in units of 0.1 BTC so that he has 130 units to play with. At least initially he can go to 6 losses in a row. Now he had only a 7% chance of doubling before going bust.

In this way Martingale could be said not to work, because it encourages the player to use too small of a unit.



You get better odds doing only one bet, I was discussing it here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=651692.20

Quote
"I think I have said repeatedly that betting strategies don't change the underlying probability of the game. People remember series of wins and losses, but dice, RNG, and steel balls have no memory. Each trial is independent."

In a brick and mortar casino you are better off playing the number and color that came out because maybe there is a little flaw that makes them come out more often Grin
1340  Economy / Gambling / Re: Freeze out calculations on: June 18, 2014, 10:03:31 PM
You are correct :

If you want xBTC and you either get it with a martingale starting at x : x; 2x ;4x; 8x or a big bet of 15x at 1.067 you are better off playing the martingale

BUT

When you play a martingale you are usually looking for a bigger win than a single unit win, for exemple it is commun for martingales to wait to get 30% 50% or 100% before stopping

Right.  The best way to play is to risk as little as possible.  Running a single martingale sequence is a good way to do that.  If you run it over and over again, you're increasing the amount you expect to lose.

If you want to win more than a single unit, you need to redesign your martingale sequence such that you achieve your target in a single run...

The thing is martingale are fun and playing casino should be about having fun
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