So today is the official end of bubble day. And this is being declared on the basis of one posting on the internet. Quel dommage. Let's reevaluate at the end of the season.
If human psychology and herd instinct is such an important factor in market behaviour, it's quite possible that this pattern is now hard baked into the BTC cycle.
That willy report is ridiculous. I agree that the November runup could be attributed to some extent to the Willy bot and these fake buy orders, but the Feb-April runup in 2013?
He basically delivers no real evidence for that. The author of this report basically wishes that BTC will just stop bubbling.
Unfortunately, he will be disappointed to see that bubbles are most often caused by mass psychology, e.g sheep panic buying. We haven't seen that last bubbles!
Oh, and what a convenient timing to release that report, after BTC gained like 30% value in a matter of a few days. Nice.
 Also, lmao @ "some extent" more like 90%+ of the rise was fake bot money. |
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Am i the only one who finds the accent on this kinda fishy? The whole blog tries to come out as just collection of objective facts, and here he just draws a conclusion about future of the btc price. Kinda weird. that price manipulation in the screen shot was when mtgox was going out of business so they wanted to hold the market up, right? this sounds like fear mongering to me... Huh??? RTFA. The bot has spent $110 MILLION US DOLLARS buying >280,000 BITCOINS in the November bubble ALONE. There is evidence it was involved in every bitcoin bubble to date. If this is confirmed, its chilling. This is big news. |
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Am i the only one who finds the accent on this kinda fishy? The whole blog tries to come out as just collection of objective facts, and here he just draws a conclusion about future of the btc price. Kinda weird. If his facts are facts, then his conclusions are obviously also logical. Another explanation for the Willy robot is that it was doing arbitrage with China. Namely, buying cheap coins at MtGOX and sending them to a partner in China, who sold them there (presumably at BTC-China) for a higher price.
Indeed, the report argues that Markus must have been the cause of the August rally because the price at MtGOX jumped up whenever Markus bought, and remained flat between his buys. But the price at BTC-China increased steadily through August. This suggestst that BTC-China was leading, and MtGOX was following, by discrete jumps, through Markus's arbitrage.
I have not looked carefully at Sep-Nov, but it seems that there too China (ultimately including Huobi and OKCoin, besides BTC-China) was leading, and Markus/Willy were following.
All that one-sided arbitrage would have required an awful amount (hundreds of millions?) of USD in the arbitrager's MtGOX account. Since Markus/Willy paid no fees, it may have been an insider, and it may have paid with non-existent money, as the report argues. In that case, perhaps Markus/Willy expected to get the money later from the Chinese partner; but the latter defaulted, or could not transfer the money due to the PBoC restrictions.
If you checked the totals, here is what the arbitrager had to have:
Total BTC bought: 268132.73433409
Total USD spent: $111,770,744.48
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I guess whoever is trying to suppress the price at the moment doesn't care about being obvious. These walls on Stamp and Finex are the most obvious fake walls I have ever seen.
Is someone hoping their deposit lands in an account before the next leg up?
I think they are just trying to get a more healthy slower uptrend out of this rally (instead of going straight vertical). Which is better. Since we just left the downtrend, some folks are prone to press the sell button. A slower healthier rise attracts more people, leaves more bears trapped, makes everyone think twice about selling to rebuy cheaper. Someone sacrificing their profits for the greater good? C'mon. Wall just doubled in size to 3k Looks like bitcoinity glitch (surprise surprise) |
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Amazing how people instantly panic and sell because someone puts up a wall.
They sell because they think others will sell, it's the meta Also funny how quickly people panic buy when walls go down  |
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I think that sit for today... then again, all the action seems to happen in the last hour (11PMCST -> 5CST) so its possible it pauses and resumes between the next 5hrs... This has to retrace tho...   |
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BFX is the leader here -- this is abnormal, right???
This has got to retrace to $550, MAXIMUM (minimum)
Nuts.-- ok this is ridiculous... is there news? or just... incredible panic buying on us markets? China doesnt know what its following and appears to be hesitating at this point LMAO
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551 at bitfinex. Hodl till the moon!
fi' fitty fi' point fi'. LOL China fallin behind here. |
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Money is finally hitting the exchanges. This could get nuts..
Money hitting exchanges on weekend? And on 5k volume? Yes, I dont think money would be hitting exchanges on Saturday/Sunday, and it is not huge volume either. Seems like people on the sidelines getting ancy.... could still see a rally but I think this is pretty big resistance right here.... Yep, sorry, didnt mean to assert that as fact or insider info I was just going by my observations and clearly I forgot Sat/Sun should not have new money (unless stamp is delaying it somewhere) |
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Money is finally hitting the exchanges. This could get nuts..
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Price was much lower then, so raw coin value will maybe never be this high again. Still, we're seeing 10k coin volume on a good day right now, but in early '14 we saw 70k on the highest volume day. I'd like to see that kind of volume again eventually. I know, but its still some amazing volume.... 90k @ ~$110 ~= $10mUSD in 4 hours 30 day average bstamp value is BTC10,000 *~475 = 4.75m in a day |
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To me that dump appeared 100% manipulative. Huobi was still pushing up and had no sign of reversing (wave pattern on Huobi)
Bitstamp was also moving up, slowly, towards the $550 wall.
If they wanted to make use of the momentum they would place a wall ~$540. Instead they market sold it all. Makes no sense at all. They probably bought back lower after the sheep panicked.
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Doesn't NEED to be Bitfinex but that is the market i am watching...
To each their own i guess..
If the price on Bitfinex goes below $507.90 usd be very careful...
Might be a good idea to watch both sides...
I would short at $507.90 USD @200 bitcoins.
I would buy at $548.00 USD @200 bitcoins.
Until one of these hit i am playing the day trading game with 50 bitcoins only.
These numbers fit with my thoughts as well. Even nearing $500 spells the end to this rally IMO. |
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Exchanges have suddenly gone dead quiet..
minidump on Bitstamp reminded everyone just how shallow the depth is.. |
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Now the sell wall at 550 is 2551BTC, that's 1.4 million dollars, come on...
Its BTC1,616 exactly on Bitstamp |
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Someone is trying really hard to stop the price from climbing, I mean a 1400BTC sell wall, why would you sell at $550 when there's a rally going on?
It's a good exit strategy. Not sure how long this rally will last. He's not trying to catch the peak He doesn't want to sell at $550, he wants to buy all the coins other people put below his wall. I'm not even watching the chart. Did he actually sell his 1400 coins? Or he just put the wall up, let me check He sold ~250, the remaining ~1400 was pulled. I do agree its a good exit strategy, but if his intent was to exit safely I dont see why they would have pulled the wall at $530. |
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Too much optimism. This is a bad sign
No retracement?
Oh --- off. You were crying down yesterday; now its up and back down to where it was and you're saying "BAD SIGN  " as if you arent totally biased. This is it. I'm shorting. The peak follows a logarithmic trend with the other peaks
GET REK'T He shorted May 20 <$500 |
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