Check out this prediction (From Bob Loukas) video: https://youtu.be/8ZM1WyHDiIs?t=875TL;DR: He shows two main possibilities: either a sharp up to above 150K in 8-10 mo (he calls it a "left-translated" cycle) OR a "classical", but VERY strong cycle terminating at 400-700K or even higher by the end of 2025 (~18 mo more to run). We would know if it is a scenario #1 vs #2 based on whether we get to a proximity of ATH in 4-6 wk. If we do, then it is likely to be a shortened cycle and if not (stay where we are or even slightly decline in a chopping fashion), then it is likely to be a longer and stronger cycle (which is commonly referred to as a "supercycle"). Personally, I think that scenario #1 is more likely than scenario #2. On the other hand, the majority of participants call for around 150K and almost no one talks about the "supercycle" as being likely. The market rarely does what the majority expects. |
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A provocative article: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/feb/17/humanitys-remaining-timeline-it-looks-more-like-five-years-than-50-meet-the-neo-luddites-warning-of-an-ai-apocalypse5 years only? Wow. Not sure how he arrived at that number. I read about the $7 tril proposed "raise" by Sam Altman...this is not a company size, it is almost civilizational. Remember Zero One city in Animatrix? Maybe we would simply become "hybrid" creatures with various add-ons to the biological core? Some sci-fi novels describe perfect (or almost perfect) intermingling between humans and AI. One example is "The Player of Games" by Ian M Banks.
As for me, I'm VERY conservative when it comes to price interpretation. Spot price means very little to me -- it's the overall trend that matters, and the 200 WMA indicator reflects that quite nicely.
When I buy or sell bitcoin, I do it at the spot price...I don't know how you guys do it at the 200 week average  Kidding aside, 200 wma could be useful when you look at a VERY long term, otherwise, it's no better than 50/200 da. BTW, we broke down that "precious" 200 wma graph last time..and what? Nothing, really...so far, unless we never reach the new ATH in the foreseeable future, which currently seems unlikely.
Maybe I'm being overly cautious here, but as I said above, it's how I do things. Even in my designs at work, I tend to over-engineer my projects. They cost a bit more, but they don't break and were are future-proof beforehand.
ftfy...as Yogi Berra states: "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." |
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Some bitcoiners bristle at ETFs...not me.
Bought into a couple a few days ago (in Roth)...not taxable, haha.
A path: from some strange swedish bitcoin ETP (Bitcoin XBT tracker One or something like that) and straight into US-based.
An expensive tx (they REALLY fleece you), but it was up about 10X since 2020, so, no biggie.
I grabbed some too. I went with FBTC for the custody diversification. Also tossed it in a Roth IRA. Bitcoin is cool and holding your own is respectable, but long term Bitcoin gains without having to self custody or pay taxes on gains… That’s just too good to avoid for any reason. I’m up 25% already. I use a roth as part of my emergency fund sources, I restacked the ratio's when the etf's came out, and have some allocated to ibit. Its not well publicised but you can withdraw your roth contribtions without any penalty/tax so long as its only the contribution amount and not any profit. Sounds a bit reckless to be using retirement funds as your "emergency funds." Nah it’s not reckless definitely depends tho on your unique situation, if in maintenance mode it’s not reckless to consider taking out some cash contributions. The profit has compounded so much that it’s inconsequential almost to pull out a a few years worth of contribution. I can definitely see self directed roths getting killed off there is way too many benefits in the current tax system to be tax efficient. People day trade in them, it’s ridiculous that there is no cap gains! We shall see. P. Thiel does not help with his Roth that was 5bil in 2021. Now? Who knows. They would probably (if not already) try to cap it at some large number, like 10mil. |
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6 digits = fuck you status for many WOers who aren't there yet, and there is a big difference between a $2M fuck you and a $10M fuck you. $100k/coin and even $1M/coin are unpredictable certainties. Got coin?  You probably meant 7 digits for 2mil, for example...sorry  . I can't think of any 6 digit number to be a fu situation...a nice chunk of "change", but hardly a fu, even in the heartland and forget about it on the coasts.
So in this particular factual example the guys who bought in 2015 and had a base of $250 per BTC and who did not sell any of their BTC, they would have had experienced 8 doublings that would have brought their holdings up to 256x for a short period of time during the period that BTC was priced at more than $64k, and so then their amount of value would have come back down to 6 doublings when the BTC price dropped back down to around $16k (which would have been around 64x) and then now they are currently in the supra 7 doublings that would have been 128x when the BTC prices were at $32k, and they will be back to 256x once (or if) the BTC price gets back to supra $64k, and then if the BTC price goes above $128k, then they will get into the supra 512x territory..
So each doubling now has much much greater magnifying effects as compared to the kind of smaller magnifying effects that would have had been felt in the first few of doublings.. so the power of the doublings tend to come later down the line, so long as the asset continues to go up in value and to have a kind of persistent effect.. .. something like a Lindy effect that suggest that the longer that something non-perishable (like an idea or a technology) is in existence and maintaining itself the more likely it is going to continue to be in existence.
Of course, the bitcoin maximalist argument would assert that the Lindy effect applies to bitcoin more than it does to various shitcoins, but the theoretical idea of the Lindy effect is not completely absent from various shitcoins, even if some of the ideas and/or innovations of shitcoins (if they come up with any that involve anything worthwhile besides scamming people) may well have decently good chances to get absorbed into bitcoin.
Yea, the thought occurred that if you had been through several doublings (since, for example, 2015), then you don't really need much of those to make bank, so to speak. Each new doubling becomes very sweet. It's one thing to double from $500 to $1000 (or even $5000 to $10000) and a completely different story to double from, say, $50 mil to $100mil in an extreme case (a 750 btc theoretical guy/gal with about $50 mil at ATH in 2021 will be at $100 mil when btc would be at 133K, a very doable price point). 750 btc was a bit less than $10K in early 2013, affordable to many, but only a few people got that then. I am sure, only few hundreds to few thousands individuals, worldwide, not more than that. |
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[edited out
I agree with almost everything, including the vibe, but Microstrategy in SP500? This is not going to happen for at least 10 years, maybe never. Why? For the same reason as why GLD is not in SP500. Basically, very small earnings (in MSTR case). MSTR is almost like a no fee leveraged bitcoin ETF. Do I wish that I bought it in my retirement account? Sure...but it ain't a SP500 destined entity, imho. Count on Biodom to be a party poop. Better than being at the poop party...haha. That said, we are steadying for the next burst up, imho, with nary a dip. |
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Some bitcoiners bristle at ETFs...not me.
Bought into a couple a few days ago (in Roth)...not taxable, haha.
A path: from some strange swedish bitcoin ETP (Bitcoin XBT tracker One or something like that) and straight into US-based.
An expensive tx (they REALLY fleece you), but it was up about 10X since 2020, so, no biggie.
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Gensler pooh-poohed bitcoin in his latest CNBC interview while being essentially made fun of in front of an audience.
Now, some Fed board governor says that he "doesn't want" banks to hold large amounts of bitcoin ETF.
I think that they realize that a relatively small trickle of funds into those ETFs (so far) could become a deluge.
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Sorry for the long c&p, but thought others might enjoy this. Gotta love his bullishness and I find myself mostly in (hopeful) agreement. This wouldn't just be Gentlemen, this would be Gentlemen on crack..... You really aren't bullish enough on #Bitcoin. All of your existing models for Bitcoin are based on data that is now completely obsolete. Where it goes from here is anyone's guess. Your favorite chart squigglers and quad four enthusiasts are relying on data from a period of time where a TINY fraction of global capital had access to Bitcoin.
Few people realize that everything has now changed. Historically, Bitcoin has never broken through the 0.618 fibonacci retracement level before the halving. Well, it just blew the doors right off that level.
Market timing geniuses are left sobbing into their rapidly devaluing sacks of fiat, desperately hoping for a pull-back. Let this be a warning. It's the first of many models to be destroyed now that BlackRock, Fidelity, etc. are laying on the bid 24/7. Rumor has it OTC desks have setup makeshift boiler rooms to speed dial whales and beg them for sub-$100K BTC. Meanwhile TRILLIONS in investment capital sits frozen on the sidelines, unable to move for the next 60 days.
Why, you ask?
Registered Investment Advisors have a 90+ day waiting period before they can allocate to new investment products. RIAs are watching Bitcoin run, twitching like greyhounds in the race traps, waiting to secure a position for their clients. We are likely going to see RIA inflows hit at the same time as the halving.
Meanwhile, MicroStrategy is rocketing even more than Bitcoin. It's up 63% in the past 3 months compared to 46% for BTC. But a MSTR pump is just a delayed Bitcoin pump. Saylor will soon be selling more MSTR shares and buying Bitcoin with the proceeds. But that's not all...
With this performance, there's a chance that MicroStrategy could end up in the S&P500. If that happens, MSTR will receive 10's of billions in passive flows from index investors. Much of which will ultimately flow into spot Bitcoin as Saylor continues his genius strategy.
Bottom line: Even the hardcore Vanguard Bogleheads will soon be stacking #Bitcoin by way of MicroStrategy.
Just one more thing that isn't priced in.
As all of this unfolds, it's important to keep in mind how the Bitcoin price is actually set. It isn't tethered to earnings, new product developments, etc. Its price is only limited by the understanding of the people buying and selling. Some of us understand how scarce it is, and have already priced it at $1 million+ per coin. If the market suddenly shifted their views towards ours, there's nothing holding BTC back from going to $500K+ virtually overnight. What could make that happen?
For now, most people still view BTC as a trade. Not the ultimate asset to accumulate. But as a thought experiment, imagine if a major nation state like Saudi Arabia made it clear that they were stacking Bitcoin with their profits. That they aren't looking to trade in and out, but rather create a multi-generational Bitcoin endowment. Perception would shift drastically overnight. Who would sell their BTC for a mere $100K when they know Saudi Arabia is going to pour in decades worth of oil profits?
The same shift could happen if corporations, major billionaires, etc. started publicly denominating their success in Bitcoin. Jeff Bezos just unloaded $4 Billion in Amazon stock a few months after he was seen partying with Michael Saylor in St. Tropez. Did Saylor orange pill another whale? Who knows. But one thing's for sure: We're on a knife's edge. Only a few headlines away from a shift in perception that would bring drastically higher price levels.
Plan accordingly
https://x.com/stackhodler/status/1758096264426586118I agree with almost everything, including the vibe, but Microstrategy in SP500? This is not going to happen for at least 10 years, maybe never. Why? For the same reason as why GLD is not in SP500. Basically, very small earnings (in MSTR case). MSTR is almost like a no fee leveraged bitcoin ETF. Do I wish that I bought it in my retirement account? Sure...but it ain't a SP500 destined entity, imho. |
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I think that it depends on your mindset.
Are you in bitcoin to get more dollars (or euros)?
OR
Are you in bitcoin to increase your bitcoin (for the foreseeble future)?
If #1, then you would be prone to premature distributions.
Sell/buy: It looks easy on the paper, but very difficult to time both a sell and a re-buy even though @OgNasty thought that it is easy to sell/buy by just following the cycles.
Once you start to 100% believe in that scheme, it might bite you, not that I am against the existence of cycles-they were undeniable so far.
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We are in BULL market.
Surely, you can try to buy a dip, but mechanical sell ladders?
A firm NO from me unless you have to sell to cover some expenses.
In a bull market, you buy, buddy, it is as simple as this.
Don't overthink it.
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Sometimes I wonder: why I am in bitcoin?
The answer kept changing during the last decade, but right now it is more or less to have an optionality to do or not do certain things.
To work or not to work; to upgrade car/house, etc or not; having some "money" for medical emergencies, etc.
EDIT: I am totally fine with a middle class living plus a couple of interesting vacations per year (outside of US).
Or, maybe, those are even included in the current middle class modus operandi?
EDIT2: Forgot to add: freedom is a great feature, of course...kind of taking it for granted, unconsciously.
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1. "A 16 year old bought bitcoin with his/her lunch money in 2013 and now he/she is a millionaire".
BTW, for the first time Turbotax (for US) has a separate rubric (folder) for cryptocurrency taxes (due for 2023).
Sounds like the kids from Bees Brothers right here on this forum. I guess they aren’t kids anymore, but they were back in 2013. I’m not sure what that means about TurboTax, but it would be nice if you could just link your exchange account and then fill in any missing information that may be needed. I don't think they can do it like they do for stocks because how would they know the cost basis, especially if you withdrew, then deposited back, partially? That said, I think that they allow uploads from cryptocurrency tax services and a raw CSV file of txns. BTW, beware of those uploads from brokerages/investment firms, etc. Most of the time they are good, but sometimes the form goes kablooey and inputs wrong info into the required boxes. I always check a few times. |
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I'm not living a flamboyant luxurious life style but...
....it feels good to be a (silent/secret) millionair.
At some point they will attempt to make some silly documentaries about these made up "facts": 1. "A 16 year old bought bitcoin with his/her lunch money in 2013 and now he/she is a millionaire". 2. "Grandma is a secret millionaire: she bought bitcoin at $10" 3. " A guy found his old wallet where he earned bitcoin by joking about farting in 2011...and now he is a millionaire". 5. " A gal got 5 bitcoins from Gavin Andresen's faucet using four different email addresses and now she is a millionaire" I have to say that it is prudent to try and document your purchases when, I expect, it would be large enough (maybe it is already now), financiers would start asking about the source of funds. One women in Israel, I believe, said that she was not able to convince authorities that her $150K in btc is legit and they did not allow her to take profit easily (directly to the bank account). BTW, for the first time Turbotax (for US) has a separate rubric (folder) for cryptocurrency taxes (due for 2023). |
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All that...and the fact that Bitcoin is above $1 tril... is groovy.
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2025?
I think we should be at ATH before the EOY.
ETFs going into halving...what a sight!
To paraphrase the terminator:
"It (ETF) can't be bargained with, it can't be reasoned with.
It doesn't feel pity! Or remorse or fear and it absolutely will not stop!
... ever... until all bitcoins that need to be allocated based on a particular ETF stock purchases are bought!"
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Typically, I wince at Friday's rallies thinking that sometimes crooked WS pumps things on Fri to dump them hard on Monday, but, hopefully, this one is not the case.
Cheers!
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48K in one hour BTCBTCBTCBTCBTC
Someone is trying real hard to dump... but tooooooooooo many buyers 🤡 In fact it's a good idea to buy into large sellwalls, because you don't drive up your own buying price Some here remember the infamous bearwhale (who dumped 30K btc at $330 in 2014). Who knows why? maybe needed 10 mil back then , but it is $1.4 bil now, haha. Here is a reference, but I remember it as it was yesterday (crazy action): https://news.bitcoin.com/8-years-ago-today-bitcoin-traders-slayed-the-infamous-bear-whale-who-dumped-30000-btc-in-a-single-trade/EDIT: that guy crawled back to the market at $1000, lol. EDIT2: Another point to make is that although the community rightfully celebrated, the price dipped to around $170-175 in about three months and then revisited around $200, many months later in Aug 2015 or thereabout, but the bearwhale did NOT buy that dip. |
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Bitcoin ETF approval, halving coming, interest rates probably going down in 2024 are good but the fact is miners are selling, ETFs inflows are good but not great, companies are being prudent and lay off workers.
The effects of higher interests are increasing everyday since loans are coming due for renewal everyday.
I see a new test under 40K$ before halving.
Oh gawd..  Good luck with that. Sure it is possible, but hoping for down (or waiting and failing to buy) when we already had a correction down to $38,500 seems to be not very reasonable to expect. Actually if we ever go under 40k again it would be far more likely to happen after the 1/2 ing. I think we have a shot to finally do an early ATH say 70k in late March with a lot of sideways action Until a better ATH in the late fall. But we all know these guesses are for entertainment more than anything else. I am having trouble with all of these various predictions too.. because surely once we get above $55k then that is no man's land between $55k and $82k.. so there still could be some resistance to actually get into $55k, but it is hard to say. By the time the halvening comes the 200-week moving average will likely be right around $33k, so I am having trouble imagining that BTC spot prices is going to come that close to the 200-week moving average absent just a quick dip. So, for sure, any BTC price theory that I have right now is jumbled and full of contradictions.. including that usually we do not test the previous ATH until around half a year after the halvening, but for a lot of reasons these are not normal times. ... so even if we might say that we get stuck in the $80k to $100k range, but that makes no sense either because the BTC price does not tend to get stuck at the top.. we will go to tops and then come back down a bit, so it could be the case that BTC prices go to almost $100k and then get stuck in the upper $70ks to lower $80ks for some time... and no matter what I consider, it seems difficult to really put it into a reasonable framework, and maybe it makes more sense to go to $120k and then come back and get stuck between $80k to $100k... all within this calendar year.. and that seems overly wishful thinking but it does not make sense to me to get stuck in no man's land and it also does not make a lot of sense to stay in this $40k to $55k range, either.. especially given how many BTC the ETF providers are continuing to have to buy in order to cover demand.. so it kind of makes sense that the BTC price goes up to accommodate that level of demand on liquidity. I am not going to be surprised by anything, yet like you I am trying to consider more likely and less likely scenarios, and I just have troubles considering what I consider to be less likely scenarios whihc is BTC prices getting stuck in noman's land - even if that might be what ends up happening. Imho, it is simple: we are left-translating either because the prior cycle was somewhat diminutive (because of COVID, China, etc) OR we are left-translating because people with money decided that this time the game has to play out (at least initially) BEFORE the election. It could also be that both factors are in place simultaneously PLUS the expectation of QT-->QE transition that is getting close. Anyway, this is my rationalization, but bitcoin has proven to be unpredictable in a short term. |
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Also, some people (like the character played by Seth Rogan in "Knocked up") claim that weed does magic to some diseases, but apart from glaucoma, the evidence is either thin, contradictory or patchy, imho.
There's lots of evidence that cannabinoids are effective in treating numerous conditions, e.g. epilepsy and COPD. Cannabis extracts play a big role in keeping my COPD under control, under the watchful eye of my respirologist and in addition to the bronchodilators he prescribes me. He was impressed with the improvement that came with my starting fairly large daily doses of cannabis extract (equal parts THC and CBD) buffered with cacao butter and administered rectally. Rectal consumption bypasses the liver so I don't get high.. If I consumed 200mg of that extract orally, I'd be a vegetable. Of course you can treat my experience as anecdotal as I don't know if there have been any double-blind, controlled studies made of this use of cannabis. The treatment of epilepsy with CBD on the other hand has been well documented. https://nyulangone.org/news/study-reveals-how-cannabidiol-counters-epileptic-seizuresUnfortunately the entire subject of cannabis treatment of diseases has been clouded by the fact that it gets people high. Some people who are principally motivated by a desire to get high will want to attribute wonder-drug cure-all powers to cannabis while also touting all the wonderful uses of hemp fibers and seeds. Other will react to this zeal with skepticism and discount any real value as mere fanboyism.
It's important to keep an open mind.Agreed. https://reeserichardson.blog/2024/01/30/the-king-of-curcumin-a-case-study-in-the-consequences-of-large-scale-research-fraud/" Curcumin doesn’t work well as a therapeutic agent for any disease....hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars, countless hours spent toiling by junior scientists, thousands of laboratory animals sacrificed, thousands of cancer patients enrolled in clinical trials for ineffective treatments, and countless people who have eschewed expensive and invasive but effective cancer treatment in favor of a store-bought spice, encouraged by research steeped in lies." Well I suppose it still makes chickpeas palatable. And what is the point that journo is making? That they should not have investigated this compound at all? Without those investigations how would they know if it is useful or not? In addition, personally, I would rather see them waste 100mil on a bunch of negative results studies than on one 'smart' bomb. That said, the effort investigating this compound probably should have been much more subdued, like a few mil at most. Negative results is what gives food for better understanding of anything as they are as important as positive results sometimes, but in this case they clearly overspent by a large margin. I think the purpose is simply to inform the world of a scam being perpetrated on them essentially led by one individual with a PhD who is publishing fraudulent research. It's not my NIH pouring your tax dollars on into it so fill your boots. It's not just about money though, this story had a profound impact on me - I was downright angry after reading it. I don't like to give this much personal information but in this case, I think it's necessary. My parents are not young. I'm happy that they're still able to live on their own with limited support from the rest of the family but about 2 years ago, my dad was suddenly having trouble getting up from his chair or out of bed and barely able to walk. He was diagnosed with severe rheumatoid arthritis by our family doctor who immediately started him on a high dose of prednisone. The transformation was amazing and immediate and he got his mobility back almost instantly. Since the markers for arthritis in his blood were off the charts, the family doctor wanted my dad to have a consult with a specialist (here you have to be referred to one) but it takes forever to see them and covid protocols made things worse some doctors, this one in particular, was only doing phone consults. Meanwhile, our family doctor began the process of slowly ramping the dose of prednisone down to a tiny 2mg per day and everything was good. Then after an over-the-phone consult, the specialist wanted him off prednisone, first taking him to 1mg per day. At 1mg per day, he began having some pain again and when he was totally off it, more pain and less mobility. He was no longer walking around the block each morning so I made him call the specialist - I was fucking livid when she called and told him to begin taking 500mg of curcumin daily because I had already tagged it as a fad and fuck her replacing a drug that works with some unproven spice especially at my dad's age. It did nothing for him - NOTHING - now fast forward about two weeks when I took his morning coffee over he was sitting at the kitchen table telling me he didn't know if he could drink a coffee because his hands hurt so much he couldn't move his fingers. I immediately had him call the specialist who, without a consult or any tests, said, "Well it's not related to what I was treating you for so call your GP." I'm not a violent man but if it were possible to punch someone over the phone... Now he's back on 5mg predisone as prescribed by our family doctor and doing his daily walk once again. He was doing well on 2mg so this is a setback. The specialist wanted to see him again so I took him in expecting she would apologize for brushing him off but no... she wants to take him off prednisone... again. Why would a licensed rheumatologist recommend curcumin to treat a known condition? What would make her think it's a viable treatment for any condition? Why would she think long term high dose of spice would be better than long term low dose of prednisone for that condition? If not prednisone, why not a proven, effective, NSAID instead? Why Biodom??? WHY? I don't even care how much they spent researching this fraud it's the far-reaching implications of the fraudulent research that's at issue. When a specialist swaps a known remedy for a fraudulent fuckin' fad, we're all in trouble. I have the unfortunate advantage of first hand experience. I have to get moving. I'm on my way to my parents' place with coffee and a printout of the article. They can read over it while I vacuum the floors. Your dad just had a bad doctor, but it is somewhat understandable why they wanted him off prednisone, even if they were mistaken (in this case). Side effects of prednisone (quoting from the article below): 1. Fluid/sodium retention (could mess up the sodium/potassium balance) 2. Muscle weakness 3. osteoporosis (brittle bones) 4. Stomach ulcers 5. delayed wound healing 6. increased risk of diabetes. https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/long-you-prednisone-safely-3561220/However, it is totally unclear why they started him on curcumin (with all that knowledge that it is bogus) instead of ADT (alternate date therapy) with prednisone that is described in the quoted article. Perhaps, it is simply an ignorant doctor? The article rages about one Dr, who does not come up as a good researcher, and I was just saying that BEFORE testing it is impossible to know what works and what doesn't. Many many people (including on WO) take various vitamins (myself included), but very often studies come up that this or that vitamin, all by itself, does essentially nothing if taken for long periods of time. Also, some people (like the character played by Seth Rogan in "Knocked up") claim that weed does magic to some diseases, but apart from glaucoma, the evidence is either thin, contradictory or patchy, imho. Okay, without getting too specific, he's well into his 80s and he has a long list of medical issues but diabetes is not a concern. My dad is always reading me the side effects of every medication he takes. I'll same the same to you - what about the positive effects? Without the prednisone, he doesn't walk. If he can't breathe due to asthma, he needs a puff on his inhaler. The side effects of lack of oxygen, are much worse that any of the negative side effects of the puffer (osteoporosis). He's on blood thinners too and the side effects make a nasty-looking list but a stroke could be devastating. He's s a tough old bird and still wants his independence so mobility is key. While I don't like to think about it, how many years has he got left? Side-effects be damned. Those are for young people to think about. Of course, it's all in balance. When the person is in their 80-ies or 90ies, comfort, mobility and being in a good mood/enjoying life are the most important considerations. Sometimes a person in his eighties could suddenly turn worse...I have seen it happen...without going into too many details. Btw, women, on average, live 7 years longer. Nobody knows why, exactly, apart from possible testosterone effects. |
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