Re Celsius...The only remaining question is whether it is an "honest" bankruptcy or not.
I hope for the former, but we would out that they hypotheticated the same bitcoin to multiple parties, then it would be something more serious.
For now, I would just assume that all of their equity, but not all deposits got wiped out by losses of 3AC, etc.
They 'supposed" to have 12 bil in deposits. the hope would be that some recovery would be possible, but it is a major bad event, no doubt about it.
For once, I am glad that now everyone would be simply hodling and/or trading and not trying to "generate yield". The side effect would be that exchange liquidity would probably drop quite a bit.

I wouldn't mind that all loan-liquidated bitcoins would be proportionally distributed between hodlers, but, apart from that, bitcoin is already great.
Another proposal (also probably a bit wild): allow lending via smart contracts ONLY...no situation where you effectively give up control of your keys.
Not sure how to do this one though, as some people want to rent out their last shirt, it seems.

today's outrage...
...what the F is that 'heated seat subscription" from BMW?
pinching pennies on a supposedly premium car?

Bitcoin variant: you would have deposited bitcoin in a bank, but need a "subscription" to "unlock" it.
jeez...some companies just run out of ideas and are peddling this gimmick.
I will NOT purchase any hardware with "subscription"...in principle.

it's like 1/150 (or less) of today's volume.
Not nothing, of course, but also not something big.

In a couple of years of JWST observation..."You get a galaxy and you get a galaxy and you..." (Oprah style).

There are only about 8 bil of us, but at least 200 bil galaxies.

Tuur Demeester says what?

https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1545571826838867969/photo/1

Pretty nice...is this guy something? I wonder if he invested accordingly.

EDIT: having said that he is into flippening (or not, lol)...oh, well, people can be right on something and completely wrong on something else.
EDIT2: or, maybe, he was joking...whatever. Some people make it too cute.

re your point...some people tend to ignore intraday's highs/lows and go with an official "close" (whatever this means for bitcoin).
The highest close afaik was $67566 or thereabout. If we calculate based on this, then the decline was 73.96%.
I agree that it was not below 70%, that's for sure.

Sri Lanka shows that fiat money is not working, but, surprisingly, the push for bitcoin is still relatively weak.
What they are planning to do over there? Adopt dollars?

Price speculation is great, few points, however:

1. Every new cycle is different.
2. We are due for a large bounce, perhaps, but it could be a long "flat" instead (maybe at a small upward angle to stay close to 200WMA).
3. BIS says to banks that 1% in bitcoin (and other stuff) is OK. I believe that they have up to 5% for gold. Gold is at 10-12 tril. 1/5 of gold is 2-2.4 tril or 100-120K for btc (or 50-60K if bitcoin is 50% of the complex). Novogratz also mentioned something along the lines that current bitcoin and etc infrastructure can support 2tril valuation.
4. It is likely that we would have a front-running situation, like in 2019, but maybe even more amplified.
5. Some hodlers might take money off the table at 50-60K just because by then they would be exhausted and fear yet another top at those prices.

Conclusion: there are no most likely paths, but $100K-180K top appears most likely with a distinct possibility of something worse (like 60K).
however, the latter would probably mean much milder bottoming process.

Only those with 100% efficiency would be undetectable in infrared, but 95% efficient would still be visible, apparently.
Dyson himself thought that it would radiate, but there is a lot of discussion back and forth.
See discussion of params here:
https://canmom.art/physics/dyson-spheres
and/or
https://www.tillett.info/2016/08/03/carnot-efficient-dyson-spheres-are-undetectable-by-infrared-surveys/
and
https://www.quora.com/If-a-star-were-fully-enclosed-in-a-Dyson-sphere-would-the-ambient-temperature-inside-increase-significantly-over-time
https://www.quora.com/Why-wouldnt-a-Dyson-sphere-eventually-just-melt-from-the-trapped-heat-of-the-star

Re ringworld-awesome sci-fi, not sure it could be detected with JWST, though...if it exists.
Generally, no systems are 100% efficient and heat radiation occurs.

markets were already declining before there was a whiff of a recession.
similarly, market starts to rise at least 6mo before the end of each recession.
look at the Nasdaq...risk stonks are rising the fastest rn.

sure, a $1 mil question.
People would keep in "regular" banks (unless we would be in worse than 2008 situation), but not in "crypto" banks, imho.
That ship has sailed for many years, unless they get bank charter with FDIC insurance, but even then, it would be difficult to retain depositors.
Minus 5%-8% due to 'no interest' surely beats minus 100%.

One thought about why we suddenly swing up: because the very idea of lending and borrowing cannot be expunged (put in any doubt) from the wall street perspective.
No, no  .
Otherwise, much more than small bitcoin and "crypto" markets would be affected.

Yes, I am also not sure, but if Dyson's spheres exist, then they should glow in infrared and infrared is JWST "specialty".

Nice btc bounce...just starting.

What are the chances that JWST would detect at least high oxygen at any of it's planetary targets or even evidence of Dyson spheres, perhaps (much less likely)?
If nothing indicating life's presence would be detected, the chances would grow even stronger that there are no tech civilizations in the vicinity (at least).
IMHO, JWST would compensate for the paucity of discoveries (after Higgs) on LHC and give us something really interesting.
It should be fun to follow.

I still think that bitcoin is about to bounce hard, but not going to risk buying options, just hodling.

weird stuff, man....it's been been there since 1980.
Some of those ideas are goofy, but certainly not threatening by themselves.
why now?

20% in btc immediately aka over 2-4wk (or even at once)
50% buy a decent house or apartment/condo for cash or w/minimal mortgage.
30% short term treasury fund (would earn 3% by the EOY)

OR
20% btc,
80% short term treasury, then move this money to tech stocks (and maybe more btc) once FED pivots to easing.

I am 65% in cash/treasuries in my non-btc (with some other alts) funds. 35% in stocks, mostly tech.
My timing in stocks is usually bad, though, so I almost always have to wait months to years for the breakeven in some individual stocks, but overall the portfolio is growing.
I don't buy indices.

However, lately, I start thinking that ALL this asset accumulation is meaningless (above and beyond comfortable living).
Just look at the world around us. Maybe the right idea is to decumulate and enjoy life while it is still mostly decent.

EDIT btw, some leading edge biotechs started a bull run from the bottom formed about 3-4 wk ago. Some are already 50% up. Biotechs usually lead the market as they started declining in July-September of 2021, few months before big techs. Take this with a grain of salt, but it could be a market "tell".

aka Bob's buying in one of his "shrimp" accounts?

'cause you have to go with the flow, not preset numbers, but picking up the top is fools errand anyway.
Next time VAST numbers would sell at 60-69K, so breaking these numbers would be very difficult, but not impossible, imho. Most likely it would take a few tries.

An 'alternative' bullish view that suggests that 69 was a "3", not a "5".
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YborCh2M-Is-Bitcoin-about-to-rally-to-110-120k/

I give this scenario a low chance (make it 20-30%), but it ALSO suggests a 47-48K point in a few mo, then 110-120K thereafter (this is a part of lengthening cycle model that suggest that the current bear is intermittent, like in the summer of 2013)