Thanks to networkgeek24 for his reply to my PM, regarding this Mining Calculator http://www.coinish.com/calc/#. Here is a great description regarding the depreciation field I asked about above.


So, when you look at what people are saying regarding difficulty increasing, getting into mining (outside of maybe large group buys delivered ON TIME), will rarely return the initial value.
Next level here (60 million) http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate or here (67 million) http://dot-bit.org/tools/difficulty_bitcoin.txt

Some nice links on calculated difficulty predictions, and it seems like most predictions are between 200 & 500 million for December:

Google Spreadsheet (200-300 million difficulty). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dG9fRkpXdFJtT1dNX0VCU1F0VFFUX3c#gid=8
Google Spreadsheet thread (400-500 million difficulty) - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236050.0
BFL Forum https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bitcoin-discussion/3964-tracking-bitcoin-difficulty-changes.html

IAS

Holy Crap! Nice work there but I do hope your numbers are a bit off. If all these companies ship and your conservative exponential growth is right on, I guess it is possible.

Thanks a lot for posting this. I guess we'll watch what happens in September, as that is when some units begin shipping. October is where the shit might hit the fan...

Any update guys on what December may look like? I don't see 250 million, even with all the new players. I get the feeling they will be late to deliver. Look at the recent Avalon debacle/scam...

I'm guessing 120-150 million in December. Ideas? Links?

Thx,
IAS

With due respect, none of us should give a shit what is going out now. We should be asking if our chips were sold to the highest bidder.

Yifu's silence is telling.

That is what I am afraid of. His cutting off of communications (yet being seen logging on) is a possible confirmation. I really think we need to consider a class action lawsuit so we can have access to their records AND see if they indeed sold to someone after us (but delivered before us). I'm sure they will try to fudge the books, but it won't matter as the delivery times we were told would then, not make sense (if a large order - ours - went out to another customer before us.) Also would like to see the deposits into their account from this other customer. My bet, if they didn't hide it, is it would be larger than expected (highest bidder). Unless they are totally operating a corrupt business, they slipped up the records along the way.

If Yifo sold the chips to the highest bidder, we should not be content with refunds. Legal action is in order.

So Yifu can log in, but can't interact, answer questions, etc. Yeah, that reinforces his story. 

Basically, everyone who has had to deal with Yifu is thinking this:

Yifuuuuuu, come out and plaaaaayyaaaaaaayyyy....

Wow that was fast!
That means some in Germany should have received orders today and quite a few more tomorrow. (Unless you mean shipped to you?)

From everything I've read, it seems like a December figure of 100-120 or so million is more realistic. We just had a huge jump, but that is because a lot of miners just produced (by KNC?) were turned on. That won't continue. Avalon is behind, BFL is behind. We'll see what Bitfury and KNC do, I have a feeling they will be closer to delivering, but we'll see. But much of that is slated for Oct/Nov.

What people need to understand is that the advances going forward are not akin to CPU advances. The ASICs will get smaller and more efficient, but from everything I've heard, they won't really get much faster. It is just a hashing algorithm of sorts and there is only so much you can do with that. But chips will be made en mass - It will happen and the delays will probably be a thing of the past once we get past the newness (and greed - companies holding or selling to highest bidder, maybe like Avalon did ). These first generation miners are not going to be in operation deep into next year imo. Still be a novelty device to have your erupter stick or Jalapeno. Sort of like an Atari 2600 now. Who knows, maybe that alone will raise the resale value ;-)

Wait up OP, the BTC difficulty in your spreadsheet in November will be 20 BILLION???
I think that isn't possible...

Thanks for the advice.

There is a provision on double taxation and not having to pay taxes twice. Germany's tax rate is much higher than in America, so there is little chance of having to owe taxes in America, but point is taken. But after 10 years here, I'm not sure I want to raise eyebrows there. Even if wrong, I have yet to meet a person who has been living here filing taxes in the States.

There is a good discussion on it here and a lawyer (user "anwalt") chimes in.
http://www.toytowngermany.com/lofi/index.php/t29771-15.html

First, I think 100 is a clear psychological resistance (on both exchanges).

Regarding the Bid Sum / Ask sum, I'm not very familiar with understanding it, but from what I gather with this most recent rally (using my TA and others), it looks like something bigger is brewing. I'm not saying we don't revisit the $60's or so later, but I think this rally can take us from 120 or 160...

Any info on better understanding the Bid/Ask Sum, would be appreciated (e.g., links, etc.)

IAS

Thanks for the info guys. I wasn't aware of FATCA. I have an unlimited German residency permit and live in Germany now but am still a US citizen. I do not report/file taxes in America and have heard that is fine.
I don't want to give up my citizenship, that has never entered my mind. I love the country, but the government (or is it corporations?) are just destroying what it once stood for.

I understand the US Government is ostracizing it's own citizens both in and out of the country with it's near totalitarian laws. Man, what has happened to this country?

I'm going through the Gox procedure as a backup account. Any recommendations for others, especially considering I'm in Europe? I know of Stamp. If too off topic, just a link please.

Nah, it is apparent from Prism that few people are buying the government line anymore. They know it and they are sweating.

They are going all out to stay in control, but it looks like they are losing their grip.
The whole Syrian thing is not going well for them. They wanted to be in there with their latest false flag attack (Assad using chemical weapons when it looks like the Rebels did) but that didn't work and Russia
has stepped things up. Luckily, we the people have friends. And Obama's charade is falling apart as well.

Apparently we have friends in the US military who are not buying into things...

Hopefully the criminals clinging to power don't get their war or whatever means they will try for to stay, or regain control.

It is important for people to speak their minds and not let the panopticon direct their actions. We are our own "public relations"...

Enjoy the show, and we got the Universe on our side.  

Great news Barntech, I noticed the post up there. This will attract more people. Benefits everyone.

Good luck!

Considering the size of the sells it is a bit alarming. I guess it is money that has been sitting there?
I mean it takes a while to get money in.

I don't see the volume on Stamp, which makes no sense. Transfer your $500,000 there in 2 days via SEPA and save 10%+ including slippage.

It is certainly cause for some alarm.

Any word from Gox on the "current" waiting period to get money in/out (mostly the latter)? I don't understand how things are so silent.

Wasn't watching but you know, it really looks like cryptocurrencies are here to stay. It is a matter of time before we see default browser integration and Facebook picking up on it. It is a GAME CHANGING technology, currency, payment system, store of value, commodity, asset, etc.

With a float of around 12 million or so, and it being really the only game in town (no offense to the other CC's), the "valuation" at these levels is silly low. People with lots of money can probably see that quite easily and it is a risk worth taking.

In 5-10 years it will be worth ZERO or thousands of dollars, maybe more, a lot more. We may be talking Satoshi's not that far from now.

As others have said, this is to money (which has ruled the world) what the internet is to communication, transparency, sharing, etc.

Its about sharing

I was talking about normal strength. You know of Terrence McKenna I'm sure, that is where my "advice" came from. But also the note about supervised. ShroomsKit seems like the kind of personality that would have a very very "challenging" trip. Lots to process (and I'm not being judgmental), just kind of obvious from an observational point of view. It would be a religious and life changing experience, not for the faint of heart.

Perhaps the grams aren't so important as is the effect. But 5g should get you talking to the Shroom intelligence and make this reality slide...
It is a very very very very very very heavy experience. Not for everyone and everyone can in no way handle that. Again, have guidance is almost mandatory for most.

You got me with the Peyote! Damn...  (Everyone has a different tolerance.)

Regarding the thread, 5000 to 115...

I was just going to suggest something like that. After all the scams and such, it helps both parties involved:
- The fabs are seen as legit and get more business.
- The buyers (us) feel more comfy and order.

The verification of ID here by a member is a great first step, but it is just ID and we are talking tens, hundreds and sometimes millions of dollars.

I mean, think about it, if a person has a business and advertises, often there is an address, picture of the owner, diplomas/certs., etc. The more information the more trust.

I'm not saying this against or for anyone, just mentioning it here as I'm thinking about this GB. Again, it benefits everyone involved.

Thx,
IAS

Man, Avalon has some nerve. They need to open up the order books so we can see where those chips that were meant for many here went to.

Any word on what the evidence is pointing to?

Thx,
IAS