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1661  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Why is the demand still so high for Miners with returns like these? on: August 14, 2013, 03:21:43 PM
2 BEs@5watt give roughly the same amount of hashpower as an overclocked 7970 @ 250 watt. It's all about how much power you consume vs how much you can hash. For me it's just an intermediate reinvestment moving from GPU,

This. 

I'm spending a few BTC replacing my GPUs with USB Erupters. 

4 USB sticks using 10W are doing 1.2GH/s - they're plugged in to a USB hub that sits on top of my workstation (an i3-3220T machine) - the PC AND the USB sticks are using less than 90W in total.  They're not deafeningly loud, and aren't adding a bucket load of heat to the house.  They're replacing 2x7950 and a 6970.  90W vs nearly 1kW. 

The BEs are cooled with a single 120mm fan (salvaged from a dead PSU) blowing past them, which is running off an old Netgear router PSU, all stuck to an old Moduvent from a Fractal Design case (plastic with foam backing).

I'll be selling the 7950 cards soon, and going by my previous GPU sales, I'm not going to lose any money on them as they were bought used off eBay.  The 6970 I just sold not only mined me about £300 worth of BTC in it's life, but it sold for £10 more than I paid for it.  The 7950 should break even, so again the BTC they produced have paid for the BEs, and anything the BEs make is pure profit from now on. 

Then there's the boxes of fans, the piles of big PC tower cases, the 1kW PSU....all that will be going on eBay, hopefully again making back what I paid.

Nice story, but what about guys without that story and just buying erupters or blades, etc? I really think the miners need to be sold with some resemblance of a profit in mind. (The larger ones are but outside of GB's are prohibitively expensive for your average Joe.) With a high BTC price, yes they will be very profitable for a short while as then you can be sure more miners will suddenly be made.

I'm still wondering about what networksgeek24 said above. Anyone with an understanding?

Thanks for the replies,
Its about sharing
1662  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 14, 2013, 03:16:52 PM
OK, no panic sale yet. I must confess I have a craving for panic sales.
But what are those suckers trying to do, push the price towards 114 again?
The correct price right now is 110 - 111, so they have no chance, just losing money.
Once the ask sum rises, the down trend will resume IMO.

You are the new Rampion, aren't you?
My god...
When i thought it couldn't get worse.
Actually you are like a combination of Rampion and Blitz.


eheheh, good one.

The one screen name that is the prescription you need. How ironic  Wink
But I recommend you do it supervised... And no wimpy dosages. 5g dried
1663  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gap Observer mtgox / bitstamp / btc-e / campbx on: August 14, 2013, 12:05:49 PM
Any explanation for the high EUR price at bitcoin.de? It's only a couple of euros below Gox's EUR price, while Gox's EUR price seems to reflect EUR/USD exchange rate and GoxUSD price. Isn't there an arbitrage opportunity between bitcoin.de and Bitstamp? Buy at Bitstamp, sell at btcde, rinse, repeat? Of course the depth at btcDE is not that great, but still?

They no longer allow americans on their exchange (if you have a US address, your trading is restricted).

They no longer allow non-german EU residents to trade over 2500 EUR per calendar year (because after 2500 EUR they have to fully verify you and they can only do this currently in germany).

As such there's alot less of the volume sellers who normally buy on different exchanges just to resell on bitcoin.de, but still lots of small volume buyers who are driving the price up (because they aren't effected by the inability to transact over 2500 EUR a year).

I would imagine the volume on bitcoin.de is significantly down as well since the Fidor bank announcement.

Yes, I emailed them about the American thing. I have had an account for a while now and once I updated things and said I was a US Citizen, things were suspended. I emailed them and asked about when they would allow me to trade again. They said maybe in 2 weeks. But I noticed the caps on trades. I don't get it. I have a residency permit in Germany, so I don't want bad treatment regarding this.

I would pay the premium price there (Gox like) as I trust the German banks more than the Slovanian (Bitstamp) banks.

Well, it looks like bitcoin.de might have just cut off their nose to spite their face and they are going to have to adjust their policy as they won't generate enough money.  Wink
1664  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Why is the demand still so high for Miners with returns like these? on: August 13, 2013, 10:06:10 PM
This site is interesting for calculating profit with an increasing difficulty. http://www.coinish.com/calc/#

I just ran it for an erupter and at todays difficulty, increasing at 1.3% per day, with a cost of $50 (average from ebay and GB's) we are looking at around 4 months. So, not actually that bad.
A blade will pay for itself in roughly 3 months.

I'm surprised at the results. Curious if anyone else has run numbers.

IAS

I think you need to run these numbers again and read the "considering reduction" line items in the table.

Excuse my ignorance and I did look at the table, but I don't understand how to apply that value in the table. It does describe it when I hover above it.
Break even is at 156 days W/ (power cost at .3), 333Mh, investment 50. Difficulty at 50 mill, which I think is temporary - KNC Miner testing?
Thanks for mentioning it as I see the value for "considering reduction considering the reduction in mining results" is set to never. (It is set to days as you know. Setting recommendation?)

Trongersoll - Yes, there is a huge hobby factor, agreed. But the costs should be lower, we should be profiting, not just "hobbying" so to speak.

IAS
1665  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: Official ASICMINER Block Erupter Europe thread -->usb from 0.4 | blade 12,5 on: August 13, 2013, 09:16:49 PM
Ordered and paid for a couple erupters through your shop. Just a heads up.

Thx,
IAS
1666  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 13, 2013, 08:31:32 PM
IMO the market isn't following yet, and the whale buyer doesn't want it to follow.
He depletes seller resistance, without triggering a full rally, thus optimizing his purchase cost.
He'll only act when the market is about to buy his targeted coins. If the predicted price rises
quickly to 110, then we'll see another whale buy. And it seems we are going there.

Yep, whales are smart, they are taking their time absorbing all the sellers coins. Shorting BTC is a little dangerous right now for my taste, i'm long since $95  Smiley

Yes, things are kind of lagging. I'm in since $94 again, after selling at $96 before that. So, sitting on a $3 profit but we might pop upwards here. Is that worth a $3 per BTC profit now?
We are sitting right at resistance, and there is a triple top, indicators a bit oversold, so it might be a good time to sell. But as you guys are pointing out, I get the feeling we might go up as the big buyers are poking their head above water lately. You can't just use TA here.

Not a bad gamble barring a big sell of, which doesn't look real likely. (Like it did at $130 & $107).

Then again, if we slide down, the big buyer might just be collecting coins in this range. (And anyone see that large 5000 ask wall at Stamp. Can you say "Special on BTC here!" to those guys with bank? I don't get why it is just sitting there...
1667  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gap Observer mtgox / bitstamp / btc-e / campbx on: August 13, 2013, 08:25:40 PM
Any explanation for the high EUR price at bitcoin.de? It's only a couple of euros below Gox's EUR price, while Gox's EUR price seems to reflect EUR/USD exchange rate and GoxUSD price. Isn't there an arbitrage opportunity between bitcoin.de and Bitstamp? Buy at Bitstamp, sell at btcde, rinse, repeat? Of course the depth at btcDE is not that great, but still?

As long as their new bank is not tied into trading, it still takes 2-3 days for a bank transfer to clear (and for you to buy/sell coins).
(IF you didn't know, right now trades are account to account, so you have to wait for funds to clear.)

Also, the volume there is quite low, relatively. But, there is an opportunity, it is just that your money is tied up for 3 days or so at Bitcoin.de, then you need another 3 days or so to get it back to Stamp.
So, you are talking a week for 10%, which is doable, but you might miss a move.
Gox has the volume and seems like the best place to trade, if you are good.
1668  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [Group Buy] Avalon ASIC Chips (SebastianJu) Batch 6 ordered (Closed) on: August 13, 2013, 06:18:11 PM
I spoke to Yifu today and it sounds like a lot of people will be receiving their chips in the coming weeks. He told me that pretty much all of the 3rd batch had shipped.

And their third batch is which batch of ours?

Thx,
IAS
1669  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Why is the demand still so high for Miners with returns like these? on: August 13, 2013, 02:42:02 PM
This site is interesting for calculating profit with an increasing difficulty. http://www.coinish.com/calc/#

I just ran it for an erupter and at todays difficulty, increasing at 1.3% per day, with a cost of $50 (average from ebay and GB's) we are looking at around 4 months. So, not actually that bad.
A blade will pay for itself in roughly 3 months.

I'm surprised at the results. Curious if anyone else has run numbers.

IAS
1670  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Why is the demand still so high for Miners with returns like these? on: August 12, 2013, 07:33:17 PM
I was just wondering with the increasing difficulty why the demand is still there for some seemingly high priced (though somewhat readily available) miners that don't seem like they can break even.

Because emotion and greed appear to overpower rational thought and impair basic math skills.

I was sort of leaning towards the combination of greed and excitement. (Can't discount the latter). And throw some hope in there.

But guys, regarding the Erupter's being profitable, how can you say that? (And then that would apply moreso to the blades as they are a better deal.)
After the difficulty goes high enough, they will be just like CPU's were a few months ago?
Let's see some numbers please.

Thx,
IAS
1671  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Why is the demand still so high for Miners with returns like these? on: August 12, 2013, 06:35:45 PM
I was just wondering with the increasing difficulty why the demand is still there for some seemingly high priced (though somewhat readily available) miners that don't seem like they can break even.

Quote
After tomorrow's difficulty jump, USB BE units will make ~0.1BTC/month assuming 0% difficulty increases thereafter.
After tomorrow's difficulty jump, blades will make ~3.25BTC/month assuming 0% difficulty increases thereafter.
(AnonBitcoinBuyer posted this on a group buy thread and it seems reasonable.) Can anyone with a better understanding of the difficulty, calculate something more detailed and farther out?

So, an erupter USB stick at .5 BTC (333Mh) or so is probably not going to pay for itself with the difficulty going up as it is. And, a blade costing 10.5 BTC (10-13Gh) or so might not as well.

The reasons why people are so game to get in, might be:
Support the network (me)
It is a hobby, if you break even all the merrier. (me)
A more anonymous way of getting your hands on BTC's.
Expecting a much higher BTC price (but even then, buy them now).
Want to take part in the largest social experiment (outside of money itself) of all time. (me)
Huh

Personally, I got into a group buy for a 400Gh machine with an October delivery. That probably will be profitable if it arrives in October.
My Jalapeno that was ordered at the beginning of June probably won't break even if it comes later than late September.
My chips ordered through a GB and placed though Yifu, might never come.
A wash?

Lots of chances...
IAS
1672  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 12, 2013, 06:02:35 PM
If $ could be withdrawn from Fort Gox, then the price would go down sharply, maybe to the 50s.
But it seems that the cash out of Gox is still buying BTC and selling to other exchanges, which adds some
weirdness to the price formation. When funds leave Gox, the price - in Gox dollars - rises, instead of dropping.
The current supply / demand ratio points towards a price of 106, and there are almost 3k BTC to buy till 106.

It certainly is looking like what you describe. Many people are trapped on Gox, so to speak. That smaller percentage who may need cash have no choice but to sell elsewhere.
It is hard to believe how long this has been going on now. Further, the volume on Stamp has been rising and I have yet to hear problems getting money in or out. (Though there was a report from a few people about getting money in from Ing banking I think.)
It is further hard to believe that this problem could not have been corrected by now. As far as I've heard and seen, this should be an automated process.
1673  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [OPEN] batch #20/21 .31 - .35 btc for USB miners & 10.25 blades - USA only on: August 12, 2013, 12:06:18 PM
I look forward to see whats going to happen with International orders Smiley

Or are they still possible?
friedcat has designated re-sellers to different regions/countries.  so if a buyer is from a place that has a designated re-seller, they should go to that re-seller.
I will honor and finish up any outstanding orders and requests, but in the future, buyers should go to their respective designated re-sellers.

This is a sad day for Europe, our reseller doesn't price them too competitively Sad

YXT is selling the blades for 12.5 BTC + Shipping(.13 Germany, .25 EU) = 12.63-12.75, compared to 10.5 + Shipping (1.25) + Customs (20% I think, so around 2.35BTC) = 14BTC.
Isn't it a better deal?

My question is, how long for the blades to pay for themselves at these prices?

IAS
1674  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 12, 2013, 08:54:13 AM
The volume on bitstamp is a joke.

I find it easier to fulfill an order on btc-e tbh.



The spread makes it even worse at times. You often need a $2 plus move to hope for a $1 profit, depending on your orders size of course.
1675  Economy / Service Discussion / Paper Wallets - Services, suggestions, warnings, etc. on: August 12, 2013, 08:49:27 AM
Hey All,

Just curious what paper wallet "services" you guys use to store coins offline. Suggestions to use, etc.
Perhaps some to avoid as well.

Curious, if you print yours from the browser while offline (or from an Ubuntu live CD, then go offline), is there an easy way to send to them at a later date? (I'm on Mac and find no easy way to input the public address from the paper to computer, even via the QR code. Even using my Ipad to bring it to the Mac was a bit of work but the only solution I found. None of the free MAC QR readers seemed to work well.)

Suggestion/? - I've laminated a paper wallet before and wonder would that increase the life? It appears to slow down fading but I wonder if the laminate will separate at a later date and take some ink with it.

Here are some that I know of:
https://www.bitaddress.org/ (Simple and free online site we are all hopefully aware of)
https://bitcoinpaperwallet.com/
https://safepaperwallet.com/

Thanks,
Its about sharing
1676  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 12, 2013, 06:14:52 AM
Does anyone know when this gox/bitstamp et al. arb started?

How many sites do you guys know of regarding paper wallets?
I know https://www.bitaddress.org/
https://bitcoinpaperwallet.com/

Any other favorites?
1677  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [OPEN] - GROUP BUY of BITFURY Chips + DRILLBIT SYSTEM mining assembly on: August 10, 2013, 08:29:57 AM
Thanks for the quick reply Barntech.

Last question, what size chip order are you looking to place and when is the closing date?
(Any plans to keep count in the thread like other GB's?)

Thanks,
Its about sharing
1678  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [OPEN] - GROUP BUY of BITFURY Chips + DRILLBIT SYSTEM mining assembly on: August 10, 2013, 07:34:13 AM
What happened to the Paypal option on your webpage?

Hey. It's working fine on my end. What is the trouble you're having? Maybe try a different browser?

Working here as well. Did you raise the price from $300 to $310 for the complete system though? When you click on $300 the next pay pal page says $310.

Any estimates on shipping to Europe yet?

Oh, and great news on the compatibility and potential overclocking through a GUI.

Thx,
IAS
1679  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [Group Buy] Avalon ASIC Chips (SebastianJu) Batch 6 ordered (Closed) on: August 09, 2013, 09:25:13 PM
If Yifu defrauded people, we shouldn't be as worried about refunds. If you collect money for a purchase and then sell that purchase to a higher bidder AND defraud the original investors, that is jail. Getting a refund is not the issue here. We need to find out what happened.
1680  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Incoming Avalon News 8/9/2013 on: August 09, 2013, 09:23:22 PM

I thought about sueing avalon but it would be pointless. The time the judge made his decision the chips are worth zero. So we are at some point at the mercy of Yifu. Of course if all is lost and he not even wants to pay a refund we have to sue him.


Admit it that you are afraid, community would provide you all needed funds to hire best lawyers and stuff.
Who cares about the chips, there is many more mirrions to be won at court
https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU
Remember it? the "I don't control that" address.
There are some serious money to be taken, and if this thing would go public we would possibly achieve a deal breaker for Ex-banker (Phoenix) and chinese liar (Yifu).
The investor wouldn't trust such a scumbag if it goes public and he would be aware who he is going to take care of his investment.
Yifu deserves it, so the whole bitcoin community to stop this preorder madness.

Putting and thinking revenge in business isn't a good path, and being stubborn as a child is even worse.
I won't be suing as it is pointless, waste of time and waste of money.

It is not a question of money. It is a question of Yifu spending time in jail for defrauding people, IF that is the case.
That should be found out. This isn't about "suing" per say, it is just about doing what is right. And we have more of an obligation to doing what is right than "suing". If they happen to cross paths then so be it.
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