BTCchina is so dead. I just checked and the last transaction was more than 30 minutes ago...
Everything's quite peaceful all round. Lovely. |
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...mad rush to sell off by middle-to-late 2014.
Are you waiting to buy Bitcoins? |
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China in pink, mtgox white. 7 day EMA:  BTCChina is not even showing the slightest rise since 27th Great news. If we keep breaking away that really will be something - a paradigm shift in recent market psychology! Because high price differences between exchanges are something entirely new when it comes to Bitcoin. No I wasn't being sarcastic although you've got a point! What I mean is that at some point it would be good to see China following western exchanges as opposed to what seems to have been happening recently where China drops, we drop; China goes up, we go up. Considering the situation in China it would be much more desirable for this mentality to shift and for China to follow us, which is what it looks like might be happening on this graph (we go up and no move in China means we are gaining some degree of independence). |
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China in pink, mtgox white. 7 day EMA: BTCChina is not even showing the slightest rise since 27th Great news. If we keep breaking away that really will be something - a paradigm shift in recent market psychology! |
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It looks like we are in a gentle upward climb from the low point. Frankly, I prefer this to the wildly climbing prices we've had in the past that were unsustainable. According to my projection chart below we should hit $1000 on Mt. Gox on January 13th. This of course is barring any unforeseen news.  This is pretty much what I meant when I said "January; February latest" - you put it into mathematics. Keep the unexpected news in mind though, true! We will see how it plays out and if we are right. Might get wobbly from next week on as more people buy in, and then as we approach 1,000 I guess some more might sell off, although it seems like most are content to sit tight. I do predict one thing with absolute certainty. If this line continues to the weekend you will see an increase in posts screaming "Low volume!", "Manipulation!", "Mac-Ds on the EM 74 calling bear market, Roger!", etc. as those who have waited for the last drop to the $300s try hard to justify why they should be able to buy in at lower prices. The FUD will increase this weekend as it is the last chance for a no-reason panic sell; afterwards we are properly into January 2014 and the small shoot of a line that has developed over the past couple of weeks will steadily gain support as it grows into a good strong tree in the early months of the year! |
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Robots trading on the general uptrend of bitcoin
Is that so? Robots that buy at the lowest ask and sell to the highest bid would lose 10 USD at each cycle. If the rbots are posting offers/bids the other way around, for regular traders, the pattern should be more irregular and in larger lumps, no? It would make sense to me if a single client was buying and selling to himself, say to pretend that the market is active or to push the price up. My apologies - I didn't read your post properly and should have been more clear. IMO in a low volume market like Bitcoin Gox have set up their trade engine to produce at least minimum information per minute to keep the line going if there is no trading. Mostly this never happens at 100%, but is mingled with small trades. The engine essentially indicates the spread between buy and sell in this case. The adjustment of asks and bids (in combination with trades) creates the uptrend you are seeing, but this is normal and is caused by a combination of perpetual robotic and regular human adjustments of bids. This is market sentiment - the sum feeling of all investors! Does that make sense? Please let me know if you think I've got something wrong because I've never actually talked to anyone from Gox about this!  |
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There is apeculiar pattern at Mt Gox / USD that does not occur at Bitstamp ot Btc-China. The price oscillates by 5-10 USD between the lowest ask and the highest bid, with one cycle or more per minute. Volume is very low, less than 10 BTC per minute, or less than 5 BTC per transaction. At each cycle the price at both ends usually increases by a few USD.
This pattern has been going on at least since 2013-12-30, except for a few hours in the early morning of 2013-12-31. Otherwise MtGox/USD seems to have few transacctions; on some days, less than one per hour.
Curiously Mt Gox seems to have been offline for about 1.5h around 2014-01-01 02:00 UTC, yet the price kept inching up during that time.
Presumably that slow creep upwards of the charted price convinces many traders to revise their bids/offers upwards, so as to remain within a preset distance from the current price.
Does this make sense, or am I allucinating?
Robots trading on the general uptrend of bitcoin |
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Greetings.
I have some savings in btc, and I'm waiting for a good moment for selling. I've seen that fabulous rise during past autumn, and I've seen that drop of December. Do you think the price will continue to grow in January? It is vital for me to sell as early as it can be done while minimizing the the losses (in fact, I bought most of my btc when it was about 900$), because now I plan to buy decent equipment to mine scrypt coins. With difficulty increasing each day, I think my reason is clear. So, what's your opinion on this?
hold your coin and buy scrypt coins....buying has always been more profitable than mining A bit cynical in some ways but definately a +1 from me |
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We might have a double top (especially visible on Gox chart) but it is still too early to confirm.
To continue the positive uptrend we shouldn't be above $830 by Friday or we are too high. But this might look vaguely like a double top when it is actually more relevant as a continuation of the uptrend. |
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I have been observing the market only for the last 1-2 months and I have started to understand the psychology of the price movements. There was a bubble caused by the Chinese where the price hit 1200. It went up too fast so at the first hint of negative news it came down hard. Since the low of 450 a new floor of 600 has been established and we have not seen the price below 700 in a week despite occasional negative news items from China and India. This shows that the market is more resilient and has established a more permanent value.
As far as predictions, a slow steady improvement in price is expected, however, I wouldn't be surprised if there were some bubbles and bursts along the way. I think a 10% per month appreciation is reasonable given the continued influx of capitol worldwide, the continued business investment and innovation, and the new-found attention of wall street. Of course, any improvement in price can be temporarily derailed by negative news items from the major regulatory players.
I may be wrong but this is how I see it.
I think you are more or less right in your predictions, although I believe growth will be a bit steeper. |
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Nothing short term. As in previous years April will bring major profits Hello Wilhelm happy New year to you from Gemany! Happy new year segeln from your neighbouring country the Netherlands!!! Happy new year to everyone on this forum by the way !!! Hope 2014 makes us all BTC millionairs but I doubt it  Happy New Year! |
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What are your thoughts on the price of BTC short-term? Maybe 30 days?
In bitcoinland, where prices can double or half in a few days, I don't think 30 days is particularly short-term, but if you want to guess where we will be in 30 days, I am guessing on "nicely above $1000" +1 I second that unless there is a panic sell for some reason, but it looks like people on the Bitcoin train are fast getting wise to panic selling. This leaves the door open for a different kind of panic - panic buying! Buy now and be prepared to hold fast. The price may very well dip immediately a little lower than your purchase price. Do not fall into the trap of panic selling at that point. |
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Gox Laggy no ?
Do you think it's a short up currently, will going down again I assume.
The current dump will probably wobble and stabilize around 800-805. Then there will be more recoveries, breakouts, and dumps. If it's like May then this fight can go on for weeks. In corner 1, you have a 1 day crossover and positive news like Fortress In corner 2, you have backlogged capitulation, China going down, and people dumping now that tax hodling is over Capitulation is over. No more jumping down the stairs. In reality China will not "go down" in the sense of complete exit, although the media might scare people again at some point. Not sure about the tax thing but dubious there will be hoards cashing out for this reason. I would add that in corner 1 you also have bears getting itchy paws!  |
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Now, on the verge of a massive adoption phase, even a %1000 increase seems meager in 2014...
See you on the moon, gentlemen.
Hmmm... I'll go for a measly +/- 500% increase next year. Sorry to be so bearish folks! |
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get your fiats ready!!
 Lined up and ready to go!  |
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But if you start to think about the role it will play in society in 5-10-15 years , then I would argue bitcoin is actually undervalued.
Today for Internet-based companies 5 years is a long time. In 5 years Bitcoin will be massively adopted (alongside fiat currency, not in place of), or it will have fallen long before. |
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TERA did you make an offering at the Whale Temple? I'll just check the donations box...
that's strange... there's nothing in there. |
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TERA did you make an offering at the Whale Temple? I'll just check the donations box...
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...another major dump can occur at anytime.
It's possible but a lot of people are in synch now and have been for what is just starting to shape up as a significant period of time. That's what's making us bulls excited! |
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I love the way we've been getting some dumps like this and no panic! I think it shows that every Tom, Dick and Harry (and Julie) left on board knows how to ride the train. It's exhilerating being part of it! Each of these dumps over the past couple of weeks has led in to a necessary consolidation back to the steady uptrend. Look at the charts. |
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