Analysis

[myself]

jesus so much posts that sound like " I want to be right ", everyone make that mistake just try to avoid it, here some super condensed concept for you

You
Play
To Win
The Game


* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zLlIdZikDk enjoy
 

[notme]

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower. hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

got it, thanks for the explanation. in these times of high volatility, i think its fair to call a 1 day to 1 week time-frame 'short term.'

yes, that is the general usage. i'm afraid i'm being a little optimistic here and referencing my bullishly notated charts (see my thread) if everything pans out, $775 will indeed hold for that time frame.

On average we will go up $10-$20 per day for the next 10 days or so (with ups and downs of course). Then quite a fair chance of some steeper climbing before consolidation in a few months.

The current line is going to develop into the over-riding trend for next year, meaning we arrive at between $4,000 and $5,000 by the end of 2014 (catastrophic news or bubble at that time notwithstanding).

Sounds facile but despite the noise (media as much as as TA) most things are pointing that way.

I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.

This is because your s-curve theory is pulled out of a bulls ass! It's only believed here because it supports the permabulls bias. There is no basis for such an assumption.
You believe this crap, and yet you discredit TA/EW?

Bitcoin is the linux of currencies. Even though it has some better qualities, the learning curve is just too steep for many people to ever fully adopt it, when it's easier to just use windows (Fiat). General public is lazy!

I hope you are right that Bitcoin is the Linux of currencies.  Linux may not be widely used on the desktop, but it has long dominated the server and embedded markets.  It is now taking over the mobile market.  Everyone who uses the internet uses Linux nearly every time they open a connection to a server.  Sure, they don't know and they don't care, but they don't have to know.  The professionals know it is the right tool for the job.

If Bitcoin fills a similar role, it could very well be the backbone behind thousands of "easy to use" value transfer and storage solutions.

Edit:: As to your "no recourse/insurance" discussion, for US citizens, there is Coinbase which has a very reasonable security model, proper licensing, and is fully insured.  They are able to do this and charge a 1% fee, so it can't be too expensive, and will only get cheaper as more competition comes to the Bitcoin insurance market.  There are a lot of insurance companies that would like a piece of the action once there's some more data to go on about how various security models hold up in reality.

[Voodah]

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower. hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

got it, thanks for the explanation. in these times of high volatility, i think its fair to call a 1 day to 1 week time-frame 'short term.'

yes, that is the general usage. i'm afraid i'm being a little optimistic here and referencing my bullishly notated charts (see my thread) if everything pans out, $775 will indeed hold for that time frame.

On average we will go up $10-$20 per day for the next 10 days or so (with ups and downs of course). Then quite a fair chance of some steeper climbing before consolidation in a few months.

The current line is going to develop into the over-riding trend for next year, meaning we arrive at between $4,000 and $5,000 by the end of 2014 (catastrophic news or bubble at that time notwithstanding).

Sounds facile but despite the noise (media as much as as TA) most things are pointing that way.

Not so sure about this.

We've are being forcibly held in the 775-830 channel and for third day in a row now, we've had some big guys dumping 400, 500, 600 coins.

If we are to still retest new lows, this 800~ sell point is a beautiful number to double your coins buying back at 380-450.

At the very least it indicates some big fish are pretty comfortable selling at these prices. Maybe it's because they know the 775 support is too strong, but just maybe it could also mean a strong move down is coming.

[T.Stuart]

If we are to still retest new lows, this 800~ sell point is a beautiful number to double your coins buying back at 380-450.

Try bartering with the whales over at the Whale Temple! 

[piramida]

At the very least it indicates some big fish are pretty comfortable sellingbuying at these prices. Maybe it's because they know the 775 support is too strong, but just maybe it could also mean a strong move downup is coming.

FTFY, makes even more sense now.

[lebing]

I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

[Voodah]

I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Who's the long term-bear? Me? Am not !

Just not too confident about our current movement up and the behavior behind it. Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..

[T.Stuart]

Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..

Ups and downs yes... but a leg down no in my opinion

[notme]

I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Who's the long term-bear? Me? Am not !

Just not too confident about our current movement up and the behavior behind it. Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..

I've always been a turbobull, but even I tend to agree here.  We have a clear 5 wave A down from the high, and we are somewhere in wave B.  C down still to come before this corrective sequence is completed.  Bitcoin's a honey badger though, so often the C waves are terribly weak.  If that's the case, buy buy buy when C comes in a few days/weeks.

[Voodah]

I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Who's the long term-bear? Me? Am not !

Just not too confident about our current movement up and the behavior behind it. Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..

I've always been a turbobull, but even I tend to agree here.  We have a clear 5 wave A down from the high, and we are somewhere in wave B.  C down still to come before this corrective sequence is completed.  Bitcoin's a honey badger though, so often the C waves are terribly weak.  If that's the case, buy buy buy when C comes in a few days/weeks.

Yes, this is very possible. A weak C wave into the 600's leaving all 400-500 orders unfulfilled and burning.

Bears may be hiding during this uptrend we got going on, but I know a lot of people are still waiting for those 400 coins.

[lebing]

I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Who's the long term-bear? Me? Am not !

Just not too confident about our current movement up and the behavior behind it. Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..

Not you - previous page - "bitcoin bear"...  

[T.Stuart]

This is play money from any newbie that bought $4000 just 11 months back (me included).

Selling at $1200-$800 range 20-15 days ago at the first rebound was a pretty safe move for anyone willing to increase their Bitcoin stash, but now? I'm not so sure anymore.

At least im my case i will not risk more than 10-15%, just in case it drops sharp once more, you know... everyone is expecting to rebuy at 380-450, keep waiting....

Not quite sure where you are at, sorry for my misunderstanding. Do you mean you are waiting to buy in? What is your ratio of fiat to Bitcoin?

[Voodah]

Since when are considered the ones dumping 400-600 coins "big fishes"? This is play money from any newbie that bought $4000 just 11 months back (me included).

Selling at $1200-$800 range 20-15 days ago at the first rebound was a pretty safe move for anyone willing to increase their Bitcoin stash, but now? I'm not so sure anymore.

At least im my case i will not risk more than 10-15%, just in case it drops sharp once more, you know... everyone is expecting to rebuy at 380-450, keep waiting....

I doesn't matter how much you bought it for.

600 coins today are roughly half a million dollars.

So what you're telling me is that ~450K USD is noob play money, and that newbies like yourself trade that amount on a daily basis??

Are you serious?

Show me some logs of your orders with your 400K USD play money...

Don't be ridiculous. Of course 500 coins was nothing on Jan 1 2013; the same does not stand today.

Back then we had 5-8k walls as the normal, now it's a fraction of that. Times change.

[BlackHayate]

You
Play
To Win
The Game

Damn you. You made me lose The Game. More than year not losing.

[arepo]

You
Play
To Win
The Game

Damn you. You made me lose The Game. More than year not losing.

the only winning move is not to play

[Rampion]

I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.

I see a possible trend of weakened bubbles. In 2011 we went up 40x. In April 20x. Now it was 10x. The number is seemingly halving every time (not counting the micro-bubbles in-between), and so 5x for the next ride isn't entirely unreasonable.

I agree with this. The "boom" cycles have consistently been smaller since 2011, and so the corresponding deflation phases after the peaks. That makes sense: volatility is expected to diminish as adoption grows.

If the above trend holds, next "boom" cycle should take us to around 5x-7x.

Finally, I'd add that I expect the boom and bust cycles to be smaller and smaller but much closer in time. Just the market adjusting itself...

[T.Stuart]

We might have a double top (especially visible on Gox chart) but it is still too early to confirm.

To continue the positive uptrend we shouldn't be above $830 by Friday or we are too high. But this might look vaguely like a double top when it is actually more relevant as a continuation of the uptrend.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Wow, I stumped lebing, the fundamental commander?

I am not a perma-bear! I am the voice of reason. A realist, if you will.. I try to counter every claim of over-the-top bulls that "bitcoin can only rise, because Bitcoin". If I were a perma-bear, I would be a thread starter of doom and gloom topics, spreading FUD flavored frosting on the bitcointalk cake.

[Voodah]

I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.

I see a possible trend of weakened bubbles. In 2011 we went up 40x. In April 20x. Now it was 10x. The number is seemingly halving every time (not counting the micro-bubbles in-between), and so 5x for the next ride isn't entirely unreasonable.

I agree with this. The "boom" cycles have consistently been smaller since 2011, and so the corresponding deflation phases after the peaks. That makes sense: volatility is expected to diminish as adoption grows.

If the above trend holds, next "boom" cycle should take us to around 5x-7x.

Finally, I'd add that I expect the boom and bust cycles to be smaller and smaller but much closer in time. Just the market adjusting itself...

Yes, this is true and confirmed by the Mistery Chart post.

[JustAnotherSheep]

This fits the bulltrap scenario