conclusion: this time it is different. you cannot compare the bull run of 2017 one-to-one with the situation today.
reason: if you look into the chart of the pre 2017 ATH you will recognize that after the burst of a mini bubble the low after was never lower than the high of the former mini bubble. but this time the low is lower than the pre high. that leads to pure panic in the market. you can called it manipulation of the market.
Either it is manipulation OR it is that it has been much easier to speculate into shitcoins this time. People do not have to go via BTC this time to buy their favorite dog-moon coin. This also means comparisons between BTC 2017 and 2021 charts are not very meaningful. Comparing how the mcap of the entire crypto market behaved makes much more sense (unfortunately). If you look at total market cap you will see an extreme parabolic rise and consecutive higher highs with a clear blow off top (that many are arguing is missing in this bull run). In other words, the lower lows and rather slow decline could be caused by craze just shifting to other sites, i.e. shitcoins. Not something I personally like to see, but certainly something to consider. your arguments are worth to consider for me. but it would mean the ATH after the 2020 halving event is just $64,895? NEVER EVER  I did not get the concept of mini-bubbles, but yes, so far we almost never (or never?) went below the prior ATH. In later 2013 and 2014-15 never went below $32, in 2018 never went below $1163, hopefully now would not go below ~20K. That said, if we look at a progress in highs from 32 to 1163 to 19780 to now, then, logically, next stop (ATH) is projecting to be $157362. If you count from lows from 2 to 175 to 3160 to next, then it is projected to be just $15312 for the next low, which is kind of low, I admit. $15.3 low would suggest just $76.6K high (if $15.3K low corresponds to 80% decline), which is disturbingly close to $64.8K already achieved. I don't favor this, but there is a small probability that it might happen. If we count from the ATH projection of 157362, though, then the next low would be 31472 (at 80% decline) or 23604 (at 85% decline from the top), both numbers still HIGHER than prior ATH, which would fit the pattern, so I would rather go with this: ~157K high, $24-32K low in this cycle. Some might argue that with these numbers we can all lay dormant until the next low comes in 2022-2023, unless you want to chase the 157K peak and happily convert some btc to "projects" there. |
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the nice part of the rally is still ahead of us, and we still have a juicy 10x to go. 10x from here means around 380K.
Whoaza!!!! 10x from here. Is that guaranteed or confirmed or anything like that? Exactamundo. Bullishness confirmed 100%. This is more than twice the level of my bet with Proudhon. What's the catalyst? Months later-maybe, but for now we will be working off the bearishness., unless SEC suddenly approves an ETF. This one is one of the possibilities with prior trajectories side-by-side: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/yJclwbVf-BITCOIN-Convergence-Divergence-of-cycles-shows-we-are-on-track/ |
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I'll give it a try to hijack the thread like others do.  after shower I got aware that one of my testicle hangs lower than the other one. I'm not sure now which one I should sell for 35K to buy BTCitcoin? any help from you genius folks? EDIT: my male McDonald's coworkers also don't know it, the female ones like to play with both. I did just look up aspects of your dilemma on the DCA website, so yeah, it would take you about 7 years at $96 per week to invest $35k into bitcoin. Historically, that would have gotten you 40 BTC, but currently, you may well not even be able to reach 0.4BTC by the time that you invest $96 per week and that 7 years plays out.. but you will have put $35k into the system.. better than not putting anything in.. and each of us have to start where we need to start in terms of attempting to accumulate a BTC stash that we believe is reasonable.. and what we need to sacrifice to reach our goals. Fuck McDonald's but if that is the best that you can do, then you might have to get two or three jobs since they likely don't even allow you to work a full time week. If you are young you might be able to tolerate, but seems better to build skills, but if you are stuck working a variety of dead end jobs, then you may need to work 20 hours at each (60 per week) and then just UP your game in terms of investing $1k per week into bitcoin rather than $100.. but still you gotta get the rest of your shit together too. I give up. But of course, I was saying it for a while and a third to a half people here think the same and figured it out. The rest are happily up-voting a chat robot. Remember the "ratts" programming and the fact that "it" thought that you can shoot the virus with big enough gun? I put him/her/it on ignore and quite happy about it-WO is much more concise without it with all that blabbering, name calling and overall stupidity. As far as market is concerned, the 48-50K area would be the one to watch. That's where we most likely either switch back to a full bull mode or swing back to retest. The overall structure could take a month or two. |
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I definitely agree it will in time have an effect on the precious metals market..
I have never seen a gold coin in person, thinking of maybe getting one gold maple leaf (canadian), but the premium is crazy (like 8% with shipping). Is it heavy and shiny, lol? If I get one, it would be just for the sake of curiosity. |
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If someone proposes a cryptocurrency that runs only on dirty energy and baby's blood I'll buy some.
I want my money to actually have an impact on the world, not just be some silent do nothing transactions that don't affect anyone.
If my cryptocurrency isn't burning full planets at a time I have no use for it. Leave the low carbon coins like Bitcoin to the plebes.
I guess, the pattern speaking in hyperbolas was a bit extended there, right? lol Proposing the "Sun in 1000002021 AD" cryptocurrency, aka SUID would be appropriate (fitting). |
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Wifey dropped a huge renovation project on my head (not unexpectedly)...she says..."you can afford it".
The bounce to the rescue..sold a bit of some alt on a 100% bounce, lol, and the work is covered with excess.
No way I would be selling btc, that's what alts are for (aka selling).
The best part does not bring the subject of selling btc anymore after it recovered above the 2017 high, which is just fine with me.
A small story: many genes have minor alleles (gene variants) with a rather high prevalence of 1-10%. This is humanity's (or any species) "insurance" card in case something truly horrible like HIV comes. Case in point: 1% of the population is fully immune to HIV because a particular gene, CCR5, is mutated/inactivated (both copies) and 10% are not fully immune, but protected to a degree (one copy of CCR5 is intact, one mutated). Therefore, even if we had NO medicines against HIV, we (human race) would have survived it, like chimps did their virus (SIV).
IMHo, alts are those 1% 'weird' alleles, not really needed, but a hedge in case something would happens to bitcoin. Therefore, it is my philosophy to invest small sums using fiat and then sell the rips, fully or partially.
TLDR; Bitcoin is for holding and measuring your wealth in (like @Capslock had eloquently explained). Therefore, fiat and, possibly, alts are for spending. Why I even included alts..because they oscillate and sometimes go up 100X in a few mo, so if you are nimble enough, you can play and get 'play money' as a result.
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BTW, alts did not get the memo and up too much today.
Barring that bitcoin will fly up like a rocket shortly (some, like "popular" bitboy, are expecting just that), crazy alt price action indicates to me that more smashing alts down is needed, but PTB can do this only when btc is declining (historically speaking).
I expect alt 'rocket" to stop, then reverse abruptly with bitcoin basing. Otherwise, this would be the craziest sharpest, but shortest bear we ever seen.
2013 midterm bear lasted for months after the first smashdown, but we just don't have time for this (4 month long basing) IF we are in a regular 4-year cycle.
However, if the cycle would be somewhat extended until the very end of 2021, early 2022, then such prolonged basing is still possible.
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Buy the dip  Thanks, two years ago i had my vasectomy which cost me $600. Now you basically told me i could have bought the 2019 Dip with $70k instead... EDIT: I just wanted to tell you guys, i had to sell (less than 1% of my stash) to be able to pay my new doors for the house extension, almost exactly at trend reversal. I knew this. I just had no choice. NOT a Mindrust event. I wish they could have delivered the doors with one or two weeks of delay  Those must have been some MIGHTY doors  |
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Man, aren't the prices insane?!? I'm so glad I snagged a 3080 on launch night at RRP. In my country they're going for nearly triple what I paid for my card
Kinda sucks. I bought Cyberpunk and the GPU I was trying to use just wasn't quite up to the job. I've been looking out for a capable GPU but Cyberpunk has already dropped in price a couple of times. Cyberpunk is quite decent to good on MSI 1080 Ti gaming, but even those now go for $600plus (closer to 700) on Ebay (still, $630-690 is much less than crazy prices for 3080, which is nowhere to be seen at the regular price). |
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<snipped a bunch of nonsense>
Could you stop clinging and following me around? Put me on ignore or something, otherwise it feels like stalking. You see zero value in my posts, I see negative value in yours, both in style and substance. Let's agree on this and and stop cross posting. I expect an answer and then I will not directly respond to anything you utter as long as you do the same. Deal? No in such case, you are going to be IGNORED from now on. keep posting bullshit (or is it horseshit?) though, it seems to be entertaining to others. |
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<snipped a bunch of nonsense>
Could you stop clinging and following me around? Put me on ignore or something, otherwise it feels like stalking. You see zero value in my posts, I see negative value in yours, both in style and substance. Let's agree on this and and stop cross posting. I expect an answer and then I will not directly respond to anything you utter as long as you do the same. Deal? |
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I hope that Bitch Elon is learning something from these recent dips and got already his lesson…
I doubt it, his ego is way bigger than his enormous head. |
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... Basel III unleashes gold price after 30 years controlled by paper derivatives with 100-1 leverage
thanks for this info, it looks interesting (I was unaware of this somehow). |
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he is late, this has been discussed on WO for months  . EDIT: no way btc is worth just 0.2-0.6% of all financial assets (a broad range calculated from either 100 or 300tril, since opinions vary on which is a number that better describe those). |
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what clearly comes into my mind is with that absolute figures of price swings the average Joe is not able to handle it anymore because it's above the monthly wage of the most. the result is pure panic of small investors if the price is going down instead of going up.
that's what i was saying the other day and got trashed for it, of course who trashed you? a plebs? trash him back. I deal with this as pure numbers. This way, it is less emotional. I got my job, a house, a relatively new beemer, did not buy anything on top (my mining "buys" at around 14-16K now, give or take). I can retrench even more and stack sats for quite a while. |
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Looking for a double bottom there?  from March 2020 low at $3850 to April 2021 high at $64895 retracement of 61.8% is $27169 and retracement of 38.2% is $41576. we still have space to area of $27169 and area of $41576 is a strong resistance. maybe we'll stay some time somewhere between for a while. EDIT: page count is just 28850. looking for someone to blame on. EDIT2: as you can see the absolute figures of changes of one bitcoin in USD are not in the region of the usual working class anymore. therefore the usual plebs can't handle that price jumps in absolute figures. sad. yes, if you plot retracement for a move, but then, why not starting from 3.1K instead? If we count retracement from the top number, then it is more like $24790 for 61.8% fib. Albeit, maybe you are more "right" and if counting from 3.1K, I am getting 26706, however, it is all a small argument (26.7 vs 27.2). Clearly, 61.8% Fib (whichever you count), is somewhere between ~25K and 27K. I will be watching those numbers, it it ever comes to that. |
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Did it ever went down midcycle (similar position) below the prior ATH?
Nope. Therefore, unless we are witnessing something entirely new, somewhere around 25K could be a "natural" attractor because it corresponds to roughly 61.8% decline (Fib number) IF we will go below the prior one (50%, where we are right now, give or take).
Because of this, it either bounce here or at 25K (plus minus a thou or half a thou), IMHO.
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The good thing about the latest crash: The n00bs that thought there is a faster way to get richer with shitcoins now learned the lesson the hard way: Bitcoin will recover soon, while shitcoins will tank further. May be after 3-5 years some shitcoin will recover, but 99% chances are that your shitcoin won't. This is the newest harvest of shitbagholders. The same applies for the BTC/fiat trend followers. Let me tell your problem, morons. You value fiat way too much, so you prefer to sell screaming like little girls just to "save" 5% of your fiat. And then you are going to lose even that by trading shitcoins. The true BTC hodlers value BTC way more than fiat, so they will never sell everything. This is the biggest mistake one can do. The right question is what exactly you will achieve by selling the last 10% of your stash? If you plan to buy back lower will it matter so much? This is insanity! Some cunt here (I forgot his nick) boasted he sold everything at 50K. That means he bited his nails for 4 months while the price was at 60K+. Now he is gloating that the price is lower, but he is not buying back because he believes the price will fall to a certain number. This number will get lower and lower with the time in his greedy mind, until the price shoots up beyond 50K and that guy remains with the rusty pipe. And while we will celebrate 100K, 500K, 1mil, etc., he will slowly turn into the next mindurst, r0ach and proudhon. Nobody can bear such pain in the soul and remain sane.
While true in general, a small clarification is in order: this thesis will hold better if we transition to a cyclical bear market (not just the dip). As it stands now, I am favoring bull resumption. In such case some alts can still outperform (until the next bear). With my position being vastly outweight in btc (a bit less than 90%, but much much more than 45% current bitcoin weighting), I can handle both btc outperformance and undeperformance. My philosophy was always to never sell bitcoin for alts (never sell btc effectively in the last 4 years and ongoing), but buy/sell alts as I please (for fiat or for each other). If alts zero out, so be it, but in alts I routinely take heavy profits (at least to the amount of fiat invested), so it should work out. TLDR; btc and alts require different investment tactics. one-never sell (hopefully), another-a trading vehicle(s)-no hard feelings re a small buy or sell. |
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<snip>...I hardly ever have an opinion beyond 50/50 - but I do frequently criticize others who are seeming to make claims that attribute way more certainty than they deserve... <snip>
It's funny that you don't see that what you are saying is the very definition of a nincompoop: a boorish and foolhardy person, not willing to put his/her prediction on the line, but lashing out and criticizing others who do. I picture seeing @JJG in a classroom and berating fellow students who happen to know the answer to a given problem. If you don't have a technical opinion, fine, then listen to others and comment AFTERWARDS, not BEFOREHAND. |
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