I now think that bitcoin market was "pricing in" future stock declines (due to inflation and IR rises) and maybe even a possibility of a war, hence much LOWER rise than expected.

Who knows how market sniff it out, but they do it, always.

the feelings are currently worse than the actual decline %.
It is "only" 74% for the current low vs 84% in 2018.
I guess it is because of a larger $ numbers in play.

Off topic, but it (cough-eth-cough) also declines faster. Prior decline was 94% (bitcoin also did this in the first cycle).
Maybe it is one halving away in cycles, than this decline would be 87%, giving a possible target of $626.
I am not sure re eth future, but I am sure about bitcoin, so I focus on it, instead.

BTW, eth has a gigantic problem even as POS; it does not have delegated staking (as others do) and because of this you either have to stake yourself using quite sophisticated hardware and a non zero skill set (and a minimal of $30K in value) OR you have to deal with derivatives that are currently crashing/deviating from the peg. Not a good pair of choices, imho.

BAD design...VB and his "group" finally screwed the pooch, imho.

I saw AMZN at $6 in 2001 (down from about $100)...and did not buy.
lesson: don't be so bitter...live and learn.
Do I think NOW is the time? It's possible, but not determined.
It would (most likely) take time to hammer out the bottom.
However, bitcoin is the best thing that happened to money since gold was put in use.
This is my conviction, and if it eventually would be proven wrong, so be it.

Interesting, but it would be more meaningful if measured in current GDP levels (or adjusted by inflation).
I would be also very interested in seeing fin losses plotted over decades that include the 30ies and the 70ies.
For stocks only this is informative:
https://www.investopedia.com/a-history-of-bear-markets-4582652

However, i get the point that this time it is BOTH (stocks+bonds).
I am not sure how the fin system can handle it.
2008 was 'only' 56% (1929-1932 was 89%). Stocks only.

It's all dynamic and proprietary.
I have seen one post that says that a large Celsius loan collateralized by WBTC (wrapped btc) has $13.6K liq value.
However, taken by itself it is meaningless because they might have many other sources AND additional loans.

PTB wants bitcoin to look horrible during the weekend so people would think that stonks are "better' and support them on Monday.
It does not matter...i am not selling here. I am already in profit for this cycle.
If bitcoin goes low, I am going with it. I just want to be in it for the ride and see where it ends.
After all, experiences is all what we have.

I don't get his "whimpy" criteria with respect to myself (I guess because I don't DCA in principle).
I told him/her many times that I also mined before (had to stop a few mo ago) to no avail.
I am fine to be a strawman, though, sometimes it is even fun.

having said that @jjg is much better that the "other" one, especially lately.
Not sure what it is all about in the latter case, lol.
Maybe a social experiment like "poisoning the well"?

If bitcoin is destined to become worlds money (or digital gold at first), then this bear is where you have to buy the heck of it (not an advice).
I don't know where the bottom would be, but here are some numbers (from the daily closing top of 67566, not going to use 68-69K as it was intraday):

Currently: -70% at $20.4K (to me, it is enough considering that we did not spike, but bad markets could cause it not to be the ultimate bottom)
-80% at $13.5K (numerically, a typical bitcoin bear, but from the blow-off tops beforehand)
-90% at $6.8K
-95% at $3.4K
-90 and -95% are, of course, ridiculous and can only happen if the whole market would be in an absolute despair (like SP500 at 2000).

However, in an unfortunate situation of a deep dive it would clear the slate for a 20 year super-cycle, just like AMZN started it's supercycle after 95% decline in 2000-2001 (from $6 to $3700-a 620X in 20 years). Both bitcoin and AMZN are networks with progressively increasing numbers of customers, dominating their fields, so the dynamic could be comparable.

Several people propose that SP500 would bottom at the peak of inflation. Bitcoin should bottom slightly earlier because it is more forward looking (could be there already or in vicinity).
I will try to catch that bottom and if not, then something close to it.
I like this game better than DCAing blindly. To each their own.

ftfy

Even this is more entertaining:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbjzEkNM_YM

Gawd...AI training facility, formerly known as WO.
Get to the f-n point (if you have one) in a few phrases, please.
Chop-chop.

buying btc now is preferential to buying miners-I looked at the numbers.
Even at 5c/kwh you can get back miner's cost only in about 3 years (without even counting the tariff tax).
Miners need to basically lose 50% of the price to be investable.
Of course, mined bitcoin can appreciate and 'bail you out" in $$ terms, but, then, why not just buy btc?

I think that miners would start selling their accumulated bitcoin soon and some would switch off their equipment.
Taken together, it would mark the true bottom (does not have to be much lower because someone could be buying what they would be selling).

Either both approved (10% chance) or both rejected (90%).
The only reason for 10% is that many people in Congress are starting to get pissed off by Mr. G (or so it seems), so he might throw us/them a bone, so to speak.

Well, but something would be stabilizing...imagine how much interest Apple, Google, Berkshire would get on their cash?
Highly leveraged players might go bankrupt.
Nobody thinks that RE goes to be affected, but i don't see how it won't with 6.3% mortgages.
I see that defi and all "financial apps" on non-bitcoin would get crushed.
I see that bitcoin would act as savings...then as spending source..and that's it.
There would be no financialization as the financial house of cards just can't survive all those ups and downs (at some point).
Whether it is this cycle (of up and down interest rates) or not, it's hard to say.
Maybe penultimate.

I am not expecting this, but is it possible that they truly lost it?
We shall see.
Will 3.5-3.75 interest rate be enough by the EOY?

There is a nice video from Ben Cowen about inflation and stock market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0fM5nlujp4

One thing that was informative is that seventies had three inflation spikes, followed by valleys, but the first one was smaller than our current spike, but it is entirely possible that it would work out like this (my speculation):

1. A current spike extending to EOY (inflation peaking maybe at 9, and probably below 10).
2. Markets at the lowest with inflation at the highest.
3. Decline in inflation (2023-2024) to 3.5-4% with stocks (and bitcoin) recovering and peaking in 2025 with bitcoin at 100K or slightly (20-40%) above and stocks within 5-10% of the prior peak (could be small ATH).
4. Second spike in inflation to 9-12% (maybe by 2026-2027). Fed rate at something currently unimaginable (maybe 5-7% or even higher), markets crushed again, but making higher lows (including btc). The bear cycle ends around 2028-2032 with prices still significantly higher than in 2026-2027.
5. Inflation finally going down, FED is easing profusely, a new secular bull market in everything (could last 20 years). Bitcoin cycles diminished, much smoother ride (for those who are still around).

would be nice if true going forward.

Casualties of this bear so far:

1. Terra/Luna
2. Celsius
3. 3AC
4. ?

no Lehman size yet and might not be.
See more about 3AC:
https://twitter.com/hodlKRYPTONITE/status/1536902115540742144
I also don't care for the actual entities, but this DID affect bitcoin, you are right about that.

within wide ranges and anonymously, sure, but I don't see the enthusiasm for it, so you (and nullius) are safe  

 yea, but then there is nothing to compare to.
you need two different units of measurement for a comparison (cars, food baskets, $, planets...)