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...waiting for Roger to introduce MeritCash™
The merit system is being censored by all the small-blockers!
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I'm trying to figure out the exact moment bitcoin jumped the shark. It's either Tai Lopez or the tweet by John McAfee telling people to buy some coin named FINA that is run by a "Nigerian criminal organization". Instead of Nigerian princes coming to you to scam for money, you are now seeking out Nigerian princes to donate money to instead.
I think you need a hug. |
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This guy makes a good case for why the CME futures expiry tomorrow will be a nonevent: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7syd2c/expiring_futures_tomorrow_not_so_fast/The CME futures expire tomorrow, and everyone is panicking that Wall Street will manipulate the price downward to gain the most profit... But it's not that simple; CME has limits on what any given entity can hold, that make it almost unprofitable given the cost of manipulation.
Any entity is limited to owning 1k contracts containing 5btc each. Every $5 move in bitcoin is a $25 profit/loss on a contract. In the recent month, we saw the price move from $19k to $10k potentially tomorrow at expiration - accounting for a $9k price move, meaning $45M possible profit (per entity holding the maximum 1k contracts; every $1k move in btc price equals a $5M profit/loss). I am a realist, and do believe that multiple entities could collect and agree on a direction (for example 10 groups) meaning the profit would be $450M for the month of January. However, open interest today says this isn't happening (more on that below).
To manipulate the price today, it costs about $15M to buy all the btc within $1k of the current price (based on the depth chart in GDAX). The group of 10 entities (referenced above) could agree to spend $15M to move the price lower by $1k, thus gaining the group of 10 a total of $50M (or a $35M profit for the group by spending $15M). This will not hold the price down the $1k, however, and many traders would instantly gobble up the orders at the lower price, meaning the entities would need to do this multiple times to keep the price low. A realistic strategy for Wall Street is going to be to hold their "manipulation money" until right before the market closes, and push price down in the hours leading up to expiration (4pm London time, or 11am Eastern Time for CME futures).
As the market matures and becomes more balanced, these opportunities will be harder to accomplish, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable that this could happen tomorrow, but likely in the 9am-11am hours, and likely immediately rebound back.
Finally, the open interest on the futures expiring tomorrow is currently at 1,459 contracts, meaning the total bitcoin in play here is 7,295 btc or ~$80M, meaning the cost of manipulation will dramatically cut into profits. This also means there is not a group of 10 entities teaming up to manipulate the price.
Just food for thought as people prepare for the Wall Street futures dip tomorrow...
TLDR; I don't think it'll happen, the business case and open interest just isn't there.
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IMO certain altcoins have a place in this world unless and until bitcoin can fit every use case required. It's getting pretty close to being able to do with the inclusion of LN, rootstock and other 2nd layers/sidechains.
Really tho? Is it not ironic that Bitcoin's supposedly "slow dev cycle" is why altcoins exist, but 99.999999999999% of them have never actually participated in an e-Commerce transaction? You know, actually used to buy stuff online, which is what they all supposedly tout as their eventual purpose for existing? Years will pass and altcoins still won't have merchant adoption. Years will pass and ICO apps won't go anywhere. Perhaps a decade or more will pass, and all of the alts will be exactly where they are today in the merchant world: nowhere. The delusion runs insanely deep with shitcoins. Insanely deep. There is only so long that you can keep using the "yes but in the future my alt will..." argument. I'd clarify myself by saying most altcoins have a place in this world, or raison d'etre, in theory. I suspect we mostly agree. For instance ETH exists because we apparently need a decentralized (lol) DAPP platform. But by the time any useful DAPPs come, rootstock will be mature enough to handle them.
Can you please link the discussion(s) where Masterluc usually gives out his words of wisdom?
https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga |
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IMO certain altcoins have a place in this world unless and until bitcoin can fit every use case required. It's getting pretty close to being able to do with the inclusion of LN, rootstock and other 2nd layers/sidechains.
I foresee Monero thriving in any case. With it's opaque blockchain and fungibility, I see it as the only altcoin that Bitcoin can't completely displace.
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The lastest from Masterluc: Question:
In past posts, you wrote that the price can hit low, and you advised to buy bottoms down to 8k.
Is the scenario of dropping to 8k still in force?
Answer:
I do not exclude that possibility. But on the wave like a zigzag correction passed. I think he's saying that a drop to 8K would invalidate his Elliot Wave count. Given his history of correct Elliot wave counts to date, that's quite unlikely. |
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1. So first in 2015 income on mined ETH $1 is fully taxed as regular income (but can expense equipment costs and electric bills?)
2. 2016 $9 ($10spot - $1base) is taxed at short term capital gains
3. 2018 $190 ($200gross - $10base) is taxed at long term capital gains
1. Yes, and yes - you can deduct electricity and probably part of the equipment 2. Yes, if you've been holding it for 364 days or less. That's where it gets tricky though, since you might've been mining something like .02 ETH per day. Anyway, if you were holding it 365 days or more you'd pay long term capital gains on the $9. 3. Yes |
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How do you guys compute your taxes when...
You mined 1 ETH with your GPU ....
You sold 1 ETH and bought BTC ....
You held that BTC for a long time and then sold for USD ...
The 1 ETH is business income?
The BTC is considered capital gains?
In the US: The 1 Eth mined is taxed as income. When you trade the ETH for BTC, assuming you held the ETH for <1 year, you'd pay short term capital gains tax on the amount the ETH appreciated since it was mined. After you sold the BTC, you'd pay long term capital gains tax on the entire amount. |
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Yeah I'll probably sit down and figure out certain percentages to sell at certain price levels to achieve certain goals. That seems to be the reasonable way to do it.
Bob's discipline in doing so has been inspiring.
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I've probably mentioned this here before, but back in the day I mined a triple digit amount of BTC and sold them at a price in the double digits.
Later on, after deciding not to jump off the nearest tall structure, I decided to start grinding away and hodling.
The smart move going forward is probably to sell certain amounts at predetermined levels, similar to what jbreher does. However, I have a major aversion to the thought of selling any BTC, having been traumatized by earlier experiences.
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Where to begin? I'd like to start with BitConnect. It was clearly made to be nothing more than a Ponzi scheme from the beginning.
That's not unusual in the altcoin space. What was unusual was the magnitude. It was like the Bernie Madoff of shitcoins, with a ~$2 billion market cap.
Also, this thread needs some Spoetnik.
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That was a fun break from the bull market. Now let's get back to getting rich[er].  |
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I’m not here to shill so I will only say it once - but this is coming from someone who correctly called Dentacoin and Mediblocks.
Telcoin on Kucoin is shaping up as a nice shitcoin. Cheap, is rising nicely and still deep in the ranks at 137 on CMC. Lots of headroom just don’t be greedy.
Please let me know if this sort of commentary is unwanted and I won’t mention other things I find.
I'm good with it, as long as it doesn't turn into shilling. A lot of us here trade pump 'n dump shitcoins anyway. There's no better method for increasing one's BTC stash. |
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It seems we are not safe yet... 400 bi total marketcap is a support... hope we hold
Never a worry with XMR. Just fill yer boots with as many as you can. We have been here many times before, and those long term hodlers are so used to these cycles we just ride them, i used to get so stressed and depressed when xmr tanked, now i almost find it amusing that its become so predictable. made me laugh as well that so many put the btc tank down to the Asian exchange news....seems to work everytime still. Bitcoin is a technical beast, fundamentals seem to be orchestrated perfectly to fit its technical trading. Honeybadger dont give a monkeys. One must experience death and rebirth in order to become an ascended crypto-master. What happens when you have done this 7 times, master? You become a hodler.  |
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Am I a bad person for finding mirth in the self inflicted misfortune of others?
I thought it was hilarious too, but I kind of feel bad.  |
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It seems we are not safe yet... 400 bi total marketcap is a support... hope we hold
Never a worry with XMR. Just fill yer boots with as many as you can. We have been here many times before, and those long term hodlers are so used to these cycles we just ride them, i used to get so stressed and depressed when xmr tanked, now i almost find it amusing that its become so predictable. made me laugh as well that so many put the btc tank down to the Asian exchange news....seems to work everytime still. Bitcoin is a technical beast, fundamentals seem to be orchestrated perfectly to fit its technical trading. Honeybadger dont give a monkeys. One must experience death and rebirth in order to become an ascended crypto-master. |
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Fck banksters, Fck goverments, Fck this rotten financial fiat debt slave pyramid ponzi slave system, Fck Roger Ver and his shills.
♫♩♩♩♩♫♫ One of these things is not like the others ♫♩♩♩♫♫ One of these things ain't really the same Like most things, that depends on your perspective. |
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FWIW, I'm HODLing until at least next week. Still on track for end of Q1 retirement. Resolving some banking and exchange issues with making sure wire transfers are cleanly hitting the target account (... have I mentioned how silly the entire banking system is ?)
Still in the process of moving off the first large chunk of fiatcoin off the exchange, and don't want to load up any more until the USD balance reads $0. Over half-way there at this point.
Mentally "OK" will selling the next chunk @ $12.5k USD/BTC, but my gut tells me we're going to head above that by the time I'm ready to cash out again, sometime mid next week.
What's your retirement strategy in regards to balancing fiat and bitcoin? |
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