Everyone and their mother (and probably their grandma too) knows XMR is going to at LEAST 500k in the near term. There is NO WAY this rise is comparable to last year's. There is NO WAY it will peak at the same level (for reasons others have pointed out such as volume and slope, but also fundamentals). 500k is just the near term stop, but it will happen. 8-10 days.
I am a Monero perma-bull, no doubt. Nevertheless when everyone and their mother knows something, I start to get worried. Way to set the top lol! A few hundred BTC pulled from the book, and its back to ho-hum for now. The lending stack is getting quite fat. Shorters have been far more aggressive in the past... |
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Everyone and their mother (and probably their grandma too) knows XMR is going to at LEAST 500k in the near term. There is NO WAY this rise is comparable to last year's. There is NO WAY it will peak at the same level (for reasons others have pointed out such as volume and slope). 500k is just the near term stop, but it will happen. 8-10 days.
All of this new volume since February hasn't pushed us this far just to quit in the vicinity of the last major high. I've been way bullish since the Hydrogen Helix release. So much good news, so much greater liquidity. Fair market value, ahead! |
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Ok, seriously... is he really trying to sell those orders at 400k and 409k? I'm truly curious.
Too many possible variables exist to give much credence to walls 30% away from the price in either direction. The only thing that matters are the actual buys/sells, and even those are circumspect because they can be colluded and faked. Closer to 10% than 30%. It's a jump, but we've all seen it happen in a blink. Fun buy, for someone with more discretionary funds than I  |
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What % you sell depends on your risk tolerance and initial investment. For example perhaps you sell 50% after the price doubles, then you'll have your money back and hold half of your current moneroj. I think a good way to go about it is to decide on the amount of XMR you want to own long term and then buy more, perhaps 2x what you want to own. Then you diversify as the price goes up until you have sold the exceeds, recovered your initial investment and still hold your preferred long term position.  That part is easy enough. Every time I try, the bar just raises with my buys though, and I never amass more than I want to hodl. Not sure where this ends. nioc's defective sell button seems to have infected my system. Perhaps I can free it up by buying more. I should just buy on margin, then I have to sell eventually  |
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So who's making the birthday cake this year? With big green candles on it  |
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Things I would like to see are 1) working cross platform GUI, 2) increased number of nodes and hashing power protecting the chain, 3) some increased use cases appearing (even some DNM usage wouldn't be a bad thing IMO).
Node count has made a significant increase YTD (primarily due to the database improvement?), while hashing power is relatively unchanged. I would expect that maintaining a higher price will be necessary to maintain hashing power, let alone increase it in the face of diminishing emission. Monero just seems severely undervalued yet. If that doesn't change, well, I don't know. Something's got to give, one way or another. I would infinitely prefer the price to go up, driving greater hashing and conspicuity for a nice positive feedback loop... |
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Could be, i hope i am wrong, but it tastes too much the same as last year...
Last year the facts were profoundly different. Facts beat pareidolia every time. What differentiates this years ascent in price vs. last years is the dramatically larger volume this year. In addition observe the difference in velocity of the price decline after reaching the peak last year vs. now.  It still looks and tastes like last years spike guys....  Last year turned quickly on 430 and eventually went south of 100. Conditions are different now. Last year had >50% higher emission, way lower trade volume, and fewer participants. I'm making no upside predictions, but barring some catastrophy, I don't think I'll be able to lower my average price by cost averaging. Playing the volatility is all that's left |
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Price should be pumped to 5$ and stabilize there this is nothing
I call 5$ a coin by end of april
Donīt trust Lokilop nor feed him. Why not? every monero i get will be stored safely out of poloniex Because you are trying to dump the price with the GUI FUD to get cheap coins, and because one week ago you were calling 5$ a coin by end of april and now saying it will stagnate for 300 days. Only a fool would listen to you and Im bewaring potential newbies reading this thread. 80% of newbies will dump when price increase 10-20% ill be there to pick up those coins Poloniex holds more then 50% XMR, mostley because there is no GUI, if they go mtgox XMR is doomed Not sure where you get those numbers but I would be SHOCKED it if was true. I think a lot of XMR is held in cold storage or with simplewallet. There are probably too many people keeping a lot on exchanges and mymonero.com (not sure how many) but I would guess far less than the number of coins stored more securely ~200k offered loans, ~300k offered for sale. Unknown # out on loan (small judging from current rates), unknown on the sidelines. These unknowns comprise a pool of over 5 million coins? Interesting guess, how'd you get to it? |
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#of high uptime nodes before 0.9 was ~100, so we've doubled nodes since january 1.
Well, we kind of ran out of excuses not to I think I've effectively proved that it can be done with general computer illiteracy, minimal hardware, and minimal connection. I run pretty much 24/7, because there's no reason not to. Now if I could swing one of those fancy monerodo units, and give my poor little lap top a rest... |
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The major news in XMR is the hard fork. It demonstrates that the core team's plan for managing the technical evolution of XMR is viable. That means XMR can adapt to changing realities. Unlike some other coins. I am quite sure that others can enumerate a large number of other new developments in XMR, but this is the one that has me psyched.
# of nodes before the fork = ~200 # of nodes after the fork = ~200 no change https://monerohash.com/nodes-distribution.html hash rate took a slightly deeper and longer dip than 'normal', but recovered quite quickly. All in all, pretty damn Smooth |
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Let me tell u the real problem with XMR.
its the devs, they dont work hard enough to make this wonderful coin succeed im waiting for 2 years for an GUI wallet not that i cant run a simplewallet !!!
its about adoption we need a GUI to go mainstream but the devs are taking it easy lets wait another year or maybe 3 years fk it im out for now
You should donate 1/2 of your holdings to the dev fund, that might speed things up. |
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Those who saved their money in Bitcoin from $1 to $8 and then stopped because they didn't want to be 'overweight in Bitcoin' surely regretted it. The smart ones bought Bitcoin all the way up to $30 and then all the way down to $2, and then back up.
I could own more XMR than I do. But I think that if I own too much, then it is bad for the economy and the culture. Most people don't want to get very wealthy. Most who do want to get very wealthy probably shouldn't. Personally, I am trying to maximize wealth because I have a purpose for it, which I consider very important, superceding my personal interests. But even for that purpose, there is an optimal proportion of the XMR distribution which I seek to own. If I own more, I prefer to sell. I currently own too much of the current distribution, but not enough of the long-term distribution, so I feel free to accumulate, in a small way, until I own an optimal proportion of the 18mm XMR distributed before maintenance rewards kick in. As the economy grows, that notional optimum will decrease over time: When there are goods and services being transacted in XMR routinely, the velocity of the float needs to be reasonable in order for the economy to grow. If the velocity appears to be a limiting factor, I will definitely distribute, regardless of the price. Focusing exclusively on maximizing personal wealth is not a good plan, in my opinion. If you are just going to waste it on hedonic excess, I think you will soon find yourself on a meaningless hedonic treadmill. The end thereof is death. Personally, I seek to maximize meaningfulness. That is a diverse, complex and moving target, but philanthropy certainly helps, as do healthy interpersonal relationships, and a project agenda. This begs the obvious question of how much XMR one should hold? I am adding a few btc a week at the moment. While there are fewer holders, a greater chunk is harmless in benevolent hands. If you hold 18K, (currently ~11k XMR) there can't be 1000 others like you. That is a lot for one entity to control, and yet at times that has been as little as 18 BTC, or $5K. Accessible to most anyone in the western world with a job or a credit card. Even now 30k USD for 1/1000 of the pie is kind of ridiculously cheap. IMO to hold that or more should be part of a plan to redistribute as user base increases. Since there are most certainly entities with 10X that amount and more, we just have to hope that greed is enough to get them to redistribute as time goes on, and in a responsible manner. Extreme wealth sounds like more headaches than it is worth, unless you have a plan for it like aminorex. I will be content to just nibble around the edges of extreme wealth, from time to time :p Low profile works for me. If I can provide security for my family, perhaps contribute in some way to my community, I will be well pleased. Not everyone wants to rule the world with a target on their back. I'm happy to leave that to the young and ambitious. |
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now that i'm looking at the other coin with potential, it's much easy to think that the next big one will be decred, since it has a unique pos mechanics and it is very strong at the momet, price is very solid
POS has always meant piece of shit, it is hard to break that instant connotation. |
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Since 10 February it has maintained near or above the 2% per day gain line. Running close for a day or so after the recent correction, and just broke to the upside again. Run little rabbit run! |
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This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine.
In your view, who are these wrong hands and why do they own the coin? Actually the more interesting question is how does slapper know who owns what amount of XMR? With so many lost in boating accidents, there are likely many discrepancies, despite his sly magic. |
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bing! .00321!  Didn't know that when i wrote the prediction ( bit.ly/Prediction-XMR-dump-00321bit.ly/Prediction-XMR-dump-0032 ) I would bet that the bet had an influence on the target number today  |
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I guess, but potential manipulators if any are likely also watching forums.
So you kept buying more on margin trading only during this run up? average price?
Those of us accumulating long term don't buy on margin, and often don't trade at all. Speaking for myself, I don't buy much, if any above my average, which is way way lower than current price. I dabble in trading for entertainment when the price seems momentarily stable or range bound, and I made a little on these dumps, but very little, as most of my coins are in paper wallets, and most of the small portion I keep on polo is in lending markets. Speaking of which, I see no wholesale piling on the bandwagon to short this market. |
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Seems like a great moment to short ETH, BTC is going up and could have legs. The bollingers are loaded.
However this monero selloff is excessive and will correct, I guess at .00377. Whatever, lets see
So far so good |
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Yes - high Monero interest rates express demand for short deals - or that it is risky to hold it now.
More strikingly Bitcoin's interest rates on Poloniex was 3 times higher than Monero's during the last days, and Bitcoin's interest rate on Poloniex often jumped way too high in the last 1-2 month. (Which is for another reason than if it was an Altcoin, since Bitcoin's interest rate is lower elsewhere.) Combined with the crazy volumes on Poloniex and another coin being pumped every week, this indicates pumper's presence...
I hadn't seen that, I don't lend BTC so never thought to look. The XMR lending pool has been largely unaffected by the recent dumps, so it makes sense that it was borrowed longs closing out, rather than new shorts. Also the other top gainers on Polo have taken a hit, adding some more confirmation to this. High volume XMR dumping starting within minutes of the high volume (bitfinex) XBT pumping. Thanks regexlove for pointing this out, it has widened the view for me. TC is just undercutting his own loans, not sure to what end  |
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