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2761  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: September 06, 2023, 12:26:53 PM
I really would like to see Pep managing a team with financial limits, though. Say, like Spurs?

given his outstanding managerial record, I doubt that he is going to sacrifice his career on managing a budget limited team. Well I believe that there is a limit to what a coach can do but its Pep though and Spurs is a pretty decent team so probably he could pull it off somehow but all the other teams like Liverpool and Arsenal might stand in his way to win with Spurs

Guardiola was lucky to start from the top team and never even try the average level. I don't think we will ever see him in a regular team, rather he will retire. And I don't see anything outstanding in his track record. He only gave results that corresponded to the level of the team (by the way, not always, like with Bayern, for example), but in order to become a legend (and not just a statistical record on Wikipedia), you need to jump above your head.
2762  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [banned mixer] 🦁 Fantasy Premier League Pool ⚽ Discussion Thread on: September 06, 2023, 12:21:03 PM
Well, really depends on what Haaland will do. I agree that the safe choice was to have him - I dropped like 30 places in 1 round in which he did great.

Still - the idea of playing is to have some fun as well - and I just feel leaving him out gives you more options to tinker with your team.
I'm more angry that I still have Rashfort than that I don't have Haaland Grin

This matters if you take sepatrate tours, but on average, owning Haaland is too big a plus to look for other options. I am sure that if you constantly guess who will be good in a separate round and choose exactly him, then you can score more points for Haaland's position, but the probability of such a successful (and constant) guessing is very small.
2763  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2023/2024 on: September 06, 2023, 12:12:49 PM
Don't organize pools is working best for me Grin I am at the rock bottom of both my La Liga and Serie A pools. At the same time I am doing great in other pools:
- Fantasy Premier League - 2nd
- Premier League - 5th
- Bundesliga - 1st

Can't really explain it. Only league I am watching is Premier League and I definitively know most about it but I am watching much more of La Liga then Bundesliga for sure.

Excellent results. And as far as I remember, a good position at the beginning (even if ahead of 90% of the way) allows you to stay at the top. Maybe due to confidence or due to the fact that when I try to come up from below, I make risky predictions and they do not work well. This season didn't get off to a great start for me, but I mostly blame the problems with the VPN for making it hard for me to read the analytics.
2764  Local / Разное / Re: Как в рф вольготно крутить фиат? on: September 06, 2023, 08:01:20 AM
Щас,  смотрю, обмен на Бестчендж по направлению с  тезер ТРК-20 на Киви - рубли идёт с плюсом по курсу. При курсе Мосбиржи 97 рублей за доллар за тезер дают аж 100 Киви-рублей рублей - на 3 рубля больше. А совсем недавно и 104 рубля видел. При том пишут, что Киви функционально ограничена. Я последние месяца 2 картой Киви уже не пользовался... Подскажите, какой функционал у карты остался и почему обмен тезера на Киви идёт с плюсом?

Насчёт плюса не скажу, но скорее всего он есть из-за того что криптобакс = баксу, а с киви деньги налить всегда было дорого (плата и за перевод на банковские карты и за снятие наличных была), поэтому логично что "неудобные" деньги на киви стоят дешевле удобных на блокчейне.
Функционал полный (кроме тех ограничений которые были введены изначально при возникновении этой истории) - я как везде платил киви картой (магазины, алик и т.д.) так и продолжаю.
Мне не критично, но жду что ограничения отменят - Киви требования ЦБ выполнил, плюс недавно они вошли в пул кампаний которые заплатят "добровольный" налог (windfall), так что это большая системная корова которую никто резать не будет.
2765  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: September 05, 2023, 10:52:26 PM
There was a luck factor for Arsenal in their late victory against Manchester United. Arsenal didn't have many good chances to score although at the end of 3 out of 5 attempts their goal was enough to get them a full 3 points at home. Of course it's great, but I don't think I can beat Manchester City and Liverpool in the same way.

Before talking about luck, I would check the statistics first:

Shots - 17:10
Shots on target - 5:2
Corners - 12:3
Ball possession - 55% : 45%

I see that Arsenal dominated literally everything and I'm not surprised that this was reflected in the score. As for other opponents, there will be a different situation, and so far no one knows who will be stronger. If I were the manager of United, I would at least take care to confidently beat outsiders and average teams, this team is hardly capable of more.
2766  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sometimes the win is right in front of us-little tip to sport bettors on: September 05, 2023, 10:44:47 PM
The lineup or the squad of any team is very much necessary to put into consideration before betting a game. Though most people use that to bet but not all bettors understand those minor secrets. Before You bet a game the first thing to look is the squad of the teams if they can deliver your mind and if the team that is in your mind before to bet on does not have good lineup then and the opposite team has a good standard outstanding players which you know very well that can deliver you bet then you to change the bet to the opposite direction.

Op as you said, many gamblers over look the formation of the team and all what they bet on is the team and not players and when the team loss they blame the players mean while he refused to check the standing order of the players before starting his bet.

The problem is that everyone (especially bookmakers) evaluates the squad, so when we place a bet, we bet on odds that take into account these nuances. If you do not have an insider (to be the first to know the changes in the squad of the team), then you cannot profit from such an analysis. If someone thinks otherwise, then I would be happy to look at the bets based on such an analysis.
2767  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: September 05, 2023, 05:16:03 PM
Maybe last season, or rather last season's success happened earlier than they had planned? And despite the fact that the club qualified for the Champions League, the management is not ready to change long-term plans because of this. And it's too early to judge whether it's reasonable or not - we have an example of Chelsea which spends a lot of money but achieves absolutely nothing.

Yes and I am not saying that Newcastle is making a big mistake here, but I think they could have been a bit more bold in the transfer market. The means are there and maybe they are throwing away some momentum now if they fail hard this season and so far it isn't looking good. It's still not catastrophic, but we know how quickly this can develop into a whole that they can't dig their way easily out of.

I don't know how profitable Newcastle is at the moment and how much financial margin they had, maybe you are right and they should have built on their success. But we don't know what's in the head of management, so it's hard to judge. Maybe they just want to be profitable first and see everything else as a bonus (the Arsenal model that seemed to never really start fighting for titles again and would just keep making money on transfers).
2768  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: September 05, 2023, 05:08:41 PM
Did you mean for the first place after Bayern?  Grin Several teams have shown a good start, but I do not think that this situation will last long. And it seems to me too early to say that Leipzig took the place of Dortmund - rather, the Union returned to its "fair" level.
By the way, in the next round we will have an interesting game Bayern - Bayer and someone can become the sole leader. Taking into account the fact that this game will take place after the games of the national teams and the randomness of the result will be increased, maybe Bayer has a chance.
Lol. Yes indeed when we talk about the chances of one club to become a champion in the Bundesliga we cannot exclude not talking about Bayern Munich who are the top, after that there is one name, Borussia Dortmund in second place.
We have all known it for a long time, that the Bundesliga seems to belong to Bayern Munich, and that cannot be separated from their success in always becoming champions in more than a decade and the champions they get are also with consecutive records.
Talking about the chances for Leipzig, I would say they have a chance just to make it happen they have to work even harder.

It's not just about Leipzig (or Dortmund or Bayer, etc.) working harder. Their efforts should coincide with Bayern's recession which we see happening in a period of ten years - last year Bayern were in a severe crisis and they scored a lot less points than they score on average, so Dortmund had a real chance to take the title, but they did not take advantage them. This year, Bayern look much stronger (even despite the defeat in the Super Cup), so the efforts of competitors alone will most likely not be enough.
2769  Local / Майнеры / Re: Глобальные новости крипто-майнинга on: September 05, 2023, 04:59:48 PM
Вот это меня полностью устраивает. Тут и снизить потребление всегда можно успеть и оборудование спрятать. А там пусть позорятся и пытаются доказать что им там померещилось.
какое потребление для вас большое и вы используйте квартиру или частный дом? еще такая деталь, это число прописанных людей в квартире. до 1000 киловатт в месяц даже в квартире можно работать, но это очень мало для майнинга.
ко мне контроллеры начали ходить когда было больше 2500 киловатт, а их пускать я не обязан.

Квартира, раньше больше 1000 киловатт не было, но что-то в районе от 600 стабильно (летом сплит, зимой масляный обогреватель). Мне чисто на майнинг 1000 хватит думаю (итого 1,5-1,6к будет), а если решу дальше расширятся, то просто буду в удаленных локациях ставить.
А вы как контролеров отвадили от хождения к себе?

по идее они должны доказать, что ты коммерческий потребитель и они поэтому доначислили. а по факту ты доказываешь бытовое потребление. это даже до уголовки.

Нее, в гражданских процессах каждая сторона доказывает свою точку зрения, никаких презумпций тут нет, обе стороны равны.

Вот это меня полностью устраивает. Тут и снизить потребление всегда можно успеть и оборудование спрятать. А там пусть позорятся и пытаются доказать что им там померещилось.
в вашем случае - да. у классического майнера - надо спрятать минимум половину потребления, а скорее процентов 70-80. и вот тут возникает нюанс. надо прятать оборудование и как-то наращивать потребление до майнерского, чтобы можно было показать, что это бытовое, хотя бы в моменте. это уже непросто. а если они еще несколько раз замеряли потребление до этого и могут показать, что в условные разные сезоны и время суток было условно одинаковое потребление с погрешностью - становится еще грустнее.

Тут нюансов много, первый это: могу ли я играть в игру с N-ного количества компьютеров? Это посложнее будет чем "увидели асик - вяжи его". С наращиванием потребления проблем нет. Летом - пальцем показать на стационарный сплит + вот такой брал у друга погонять, а зимой показать обогреватель.
Все эти замеры и прочие выдумки энергетиков в суде это не более чем туалетная бумага, чтобы это что-то значило должны назначаться по решению суда отдельные экспертизы.
Я с гос конторами судился и не раз, так что загрустить не боюсь  Grin
2770  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: September 05, 2023, 04:41:48 PM
I was wondering how all these players that sign lately in Saudi professional league especially those coming from Premier League where they are the most supportive league for the LGBTQ+ community, these players and let’s take for example Henderson Jordan who was a big supporter of that community when he was playing for Liverpool before signing to Al-Ettifaq the Saudi Arabia team this country that consider LGBTQ+ illegal and against them totally, which means that players are not allowed to show any support or signs regarding it or even to talk about it.
So how these players agree for such different cultures and ideas or it’s all about money? Wherever they get good money they support their case?
I don’t really understand how rules of supporting such communities work in Saudi Arabia but I’m sure it’s paid in the other leagues where they support and wear those signs and flags.

I'm 100% sure that no one is paying for this, it's just the political paradigm and the players are under pressure to participate in all of this (although everyone has heard of those who refused to participate in these actions).
As for the players who support those movements that are banned in Saudi Arabia, but still moved there, everything is simple - it's a matter of money and they chose money. No doubt they are aware of these restrictions but they have adopted the local rules of the game.
2771  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Saudi Professional League 2023/2024 on: September 05, 2023, 11:15:20 AM
Firstly, these are utopian plans, and secondly, they are too long-term - for the academies to give some kind of result, it will probably take about 10 years. The population of Saudi Arabia is 34 million people, the third of which are labor migrants, it is obvious that if the Saudis want to strive for the level of the top leagues, they must focus on external sources of players.
But indeed if Saudi Arabia wants to have a better generation of football at this time the right moment, where on their land there are many star players who compete every week, this will be an attraction for the younger generation who begin to develop, of course the making of the academy will accommodate The interest of today's generation football is echoing in Arab land, even though the population is not so much.

The problem of time will definitely take quite a long time in the development of this academy, so for now it is still very much needed by outside players to increase their league popularity.

It might work this way. For example, the young generation of Indian chess players that we are seeing now is the result of Anand's success fifteen years ago. But there are nuances: India is a very poor country with a huge population, and Saudi Arabia, in addition to having a small population, also has a high standard of living, so the success of football players (which, for example, in Brazil are equal to getting out of poverty) will not mean much to the Saudis.
2772  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: (dont) ignore the man behind the curtain on: September 05, 2023, 10:58:29 AM
~snip~
It can be assumed that the next revolutionary leap in the development of AI will occur when AI begins to extract data itself and not be based on arrays of information prepared by a person. I'd like to see this, and I'm sure I will, since the field of AI is developing very quickly. I think it will look something like this: now bookmakers use 300 (I don’t know the exact number, just an example) different parameters to assess the probability of game outcomes, and AI will use 300 classic parameters + invent new ones that a person simply has not seen, let’s say another 200 parameters. And apparently the new model will be many times more effective.

Well, that would need that the AI is able to generate completely new information, which right now might or might not be able to do.

Yes, AI can create new things, but I think it's basically a combination of previously known things, not uniquely new.

It might be because of the training mechanism, we give positive feedback for things that look human made let's say, and negative to weird things.

We might be an obstacle to AI expressing a truly new creation.

I do not think that this will be a big problem, because even now when AI processes (trains) on various images, it creates new information for itself (which we cannot understand). For example, AI analyzes well, and subsequently imitates the styles of different artists, but it is probably impossible to write down exactly what these styles are. Similarly, it can happen, for example, with a football match - the AI will watch it and will make live quotes regarding the outcome of this match (and they will be extremely accurate), but a person will not be able to see the rationale for these quotes.
2773  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: September 05, 2023, 10:43:04 AM
As always, great possession of the ball (71%) with only 4 shots on target. I continue to believe that all this comes from the coach and Xavi is trying to implement a scheme that has not been working for a long time. They got lucky yesterday, but that won't always happen, plus when we say that Barcelona got lucky against Osasuna, things are bad.
Judging by the way Lewandowski started the season modestly (and how often Bellingham scores), he does not shine to become a top scorer this season.
There's nothing wrong with their possession as their tiki taka is very troublesome but on the other hand we seem to be on the same page in this regard as Barcelona still have a lot of problems especially in attack at the moment.
Indeed, their attacking line and the chances they create are still fairly good but the final finishing is still bad if we compare their current condition with the record of goals in each match.
Even looking at the match against Osauna yesterday we can see in terms of opportunities Osasuna was a little better.

Lewandowski still hasn't rediscovered the form of his first season on the other hand, it seems Xavi still wants to make some experiments by continuing to try to exploit Gavi on the winger and wants to give Lamine Yamal a chance but I think it would be better to try to put Gavi in an ideal position and give Ansu time.

Tiki taka is outdated garbage because no one is going to fight for the ball anymore if the team focuses on ball control. It is enough to stand on the defensive and keep the zones closed. In essence, tiki taka is a bus + possession of the ball. If a team does not risk going on the attack for fear of losing the ball, then in modern conditions it will suffer from draws with outsiders and even defeats (due to counterattacks).
2774  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: September 05, 2023, 10:31:45 AM
Roma will fight seriously to be among the top four teams, but how successful they will be in this regard is the biggest question of interest. I think Rome falls short of standards. One of the few iconic teams in Italy is Roma. However, despite having very good coaches, they still could not achieve complete success.

Roma took the Conference League title and last year they reached the final of the Europa League - a very big achievement for a club that is not top in Italy. It's hard for them to fight for the top 4 as someone "outsider" gets there only when the big four (Napoli, Milan, Inter, Juventus) have unexpected problems. Under normal circumstances, the big four dominate (their financial capabilities are incomparably greater than those of other clubs).
2775  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Possible measures to stop online gambling addiction. on: September 05, 2023, 10:13:16 AM
This is the main problem with addicts - if they have the desire and will, they can quit on their own without anyone's advice and help. If they have no desire, then no lectures, advice and other help will help. The only alternative is violence (when a person is placed in a clinic and physically deprived of access to alcohol/gambling) but this happens quite rarely and mostly by court order (as far as I know).

Yes, I agree with you, the various advice that comes to them (gamblers) will most likely not have any effect and if it does happen it is very unlikely, as you said they do it with enthusiasm for things they find fun and yes that's how it is exists. it's too much for them, but I agree that if their passion disappears or they get bored of doing it then their interest will also disappear, and maybe they will stop themselves. My example, usually a few months ago to be honest I gambled almost every day even every hour, I was very happy to be there and I couldn't afford to spend a single day not gambling, even though in the end losing dominated. But what is surprising is that now somehow the feeling of wanting to gamble has slowly disappeared within me, in fact I very rarely imagine my winnings at that time, to be honest, boredom appears in my mind to come back again. playing there, and at the moment I have almost never gambled for the last two months, this is really lucky in my opinion because indirectly I can finally stop a little slowly and hopefully this continues.

Yes, that is a good alternative and we can choose if someone's level of addiction is out of control, requires special treatment for the problem, and by undergoing rehabilitation it is very possible to recover a little because the rules are clear. there is very strict and there is no access whatsoever for them to do gambling or anything like alcoholic beverages.

I'm wondering if your addiction went away for no reason or because you got a new interest/girlfriend/job? I know that this happens both for certain reasons and by itself - for example, when we first play some kind of online game around the clock (or watch a series), but then saturation sets in and we either look for something new or just do pause. In any case, you are very lucky that the passion has passed, free of charge and without external interference.
2776  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: (dont) ignore the man behind the curtain on: September 04, 2023, 12:49:44 PM
~   
  The other big point about AI that Ive heard a few times is you must remember the giant amount of data required for it to work.   Dont forget the computer isnt really super intelligent its mostly about resourcefulness to reference the data on tap it has; a giant reserve of data accumulated and formatted ready to use with the AI is the secret behind its magic.
~

It can be assumed that the next revolutionary leap in the development of AI will occur when AI begins to extract data itself and not be based on arrays of information prepared by a person. I'd like to see this, and I'm sure I will, since the field of AI is developing very quickly. I think it will look something like this: now bookmakers use 300 (I don’t know the exact number, just an example) different parameters to assess the probability of game outcomes, and AI will use 300 classic parameters + invent new ones that a person simply has not seen, let’s say another 200 parameters. And apparently the new model will be many times more effective.
2777  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: September 04, 2023, 12:39:34 PM
Barcelona again lucky in this match. They still experienced the same problems in their goal productivity even though previously they were quite good, but in this match they had actually the same problems because their finishing problem was really bad. Luckily the violation which led to the penalty put Barcelona ahead and got 3 points which put Barcelona back on track quite well. Now, even though Barcelona is still quite good in the last few matches, of course their problems are still the same now and Xavi still needs to improve his mentality in scoring goals.

As always, great possession of the ball (71%) with only 4 shots on target. I continue to believe that all this comes from the coach and Xavi is trying to implement a scheme that has not been working for a long time. They got lucky yesterday, but that won't always happen, plus when we say that Barcelona got lucky against Osasuna, things are bad.
Judging by the way Lewandowski started the season modestly (and how often Bellingham scores), he does not shine to become a top scorer this season.
2778  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: September 04, 2023, 12:33:21 PM
~

Paul Pogba is injured again!

The intensity of his injury is unknown and will need some days with medical tests to assess his injury. Career of Pogba has been affected by many injuries in last three years and he already 30 years old. According to transfermarkt.com, his transfer value is about €15.00M which is very cheap with his talent but the value makes sense because he was unable to play for Juventus too many matches since a transfer from Manchester United.

Sad to hear. Pogba has been plagued by misfortune/failure for many years now - if at United he simply could not fulfill himself (since the whole club was in decline), then at Juventus he simply cannot start playing.



Meanwhile, after the defeat from Lazio, Napoli's quotes (for the title) fell sharply:

Inter 3.00

Ac Milan 3.75

Napoli 4.33

Juventus 5.00

However, even the strongest favorite has a 33% chance of taking the title - this is a nonsense probability and speaks of great randomness. It's funny that Roma, Lazio and Atalanta have equal odds of 29.
2779  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Possible measures to stop online gambling addiction. on: September 04, 2023, 12:08:00 PM
That is easier said than done unfortunately.I had a colleague in my office a couple of years ago which was heavily addicted not only to gambling but even to other bad things like alcohol,we kept talking to him a lot to change direction,not only us also his family as they were also working with the same company so he got daily a lot of moral lectures yet he continued to gamble and drink alcohol until one day his heart ceded and he has passed away at the age of 52,a young age I would say.This said story I posted here to show that it is with the same difficulty that is to convince a drug addict to persuade a gambling addict too,when the level of addiction is really high. 

This is the main problem with addicts - if they have the desire and will, they can quit on their own without anyone's advice and help. If they have no desire, then no lectures, advice and other help will help. The only alternative is violence (when a person is placed in a clinic and physically deprived of access to alcohol/gambling) but this happens quite rarely and mostly by court order (as far as I know).
2780  Local / Майнеры / Re: Глобальные новости крипто-майнинга on: September 04, 2023, 12:02:07 PM
Дело не в системниках, а в подходе - с таким же успехом контролер может увидеть пару тазов с бураками на электроплите. Дальше что? Это коммерческое потребление или семья любит бураки?
Или опять же вспомним кейс с бассеином который тут обсуждался - а что если бы тогда ЭЭ реально уходила на подогрев бассейна, а не на майнинг - это коммерческое потребление или бытовая прихоть?
А раньше вы не майнили? В чатах такое обсуждали и коллективным решением было принято что контроллер ничего не должен видеть лишнего и у него о вас подозрительных мыслей не будет. У майнера потребление постоянное и никто не поверит что он месяцами варит тазы с овощами на электроплите.

Нет, практически не майнил (три слабых системника на дистанции полгода не считается), но у меня потребление ЭЭ всегда большое так что пока кратного увеличения не произошло.
Контролер вообще ничего не должен видеть. Проблемка в том что он видит потребление. Соответсвенно вопросы могут возникнуть когда-то.

~ Энергетики сами должны в суд идти.

Вот это меня полностью устраивает. Тут и снизить потребление всегда можно успеть и оборудование спрятать. А там пусть позорятся и пытаются доказать что им там померещилось.
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