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3341  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: bubble #2 might be forming on: December 31, 2011, 01:30:13 PM
Call me when bitcoin reach 30 again  Cheesy

As others have pointed out, getting to those numbers is going to be much, much more difficult than before.  There's going to be more selling pressure on the way up in addition to there being more standing orders on the order book this time around.  It'd take ~$2,000,000 to move the price that high right now.  In reality it's going to take several times that amount as people actively sell.
I think it’ll be easier as Bitcoin now has a wider reach and proven that it will stay. The peak volume we had at the top was ridiculous, so it won’t be too hard to surpass that. I’m expecting people to get euphoric and withdraw/put their asks much higher at some point.
3342  Economy / Speculation / Re: So, what will happen … on: December 31, 2011, 01:27:15 PM
And to answer my own question: I think we might be seeing a REAL bubble if this happens, not just with geek lunch money.
3343  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: bubble #2 might be forming on: December 31, 2011, 01:23:48 PM
Call me when bitcoin reach 30 again  Cheesy
Yeah, I might start to think about diversifying then as well.
3344  Economy / Speculation / Re: So, what will happen … on: December 31, 2011, 01:23:06 PM
… once people begin to realize that not the rise, but the fall was manipulated?

very, very good point.

short selling at Bitcoinica implemented in September was also a big factor leading everyone to believe that the death knell was near.  while it hurt alot of longs the last few months, i can't help but think alot of the shorts have been decimated. in fact, i'm sure of it.


I think I agree with you on shorting at this early stage of BTC, although it surely would have been a help in May/June.
3345  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: bubble #2 might be forming on: December 31, 2011, 01:18:04 PM
Bubble #2 in progress.
3346  Economy / Speculation / Re: UP UP UP on: December 31, 2011, 01:16:10 PM
gonna be big when we break 5!

thats a huge psychological barrier.
SELL SELL SELL at resistance!
3347  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nagle on: December 31, 2011, 01:12:15 PM
The recent spike of course. Tongue

I want to hear what he makes of this. Is this his "endgame" or what?
3348  Economy / Speculation / So, what will happen … on: December 31, 2011, 01:07:44 PM
… once people begin to realize that not the rise, but the fall was manipulated?
3349  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nagle on: December 31, 2011, 01:03:06 PM
Still waiting for Nagle to turn up and explain this stuff.
3350  Economy / Speculation / Re: Major correction to rally coming... on: December 28, 2011, 09:41:40 PM
The chart below is why I think any rallies in the short term are going to be abruptly corrected:



The red line shows the total bitcoin supply - a linear increase.
I have adjusted it to fit on the scale of the blue line, which represents the total supply on mtgox.

Notice the divergence of the two lines on the right, compared with left when I began recording the datapoints.
A large volume of btc is sitting out there somewhere just waiting to be sold.
Aren’t the numbers on the y axis wrong? There are currently just below 8 million BTC.
3351  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nagle on: December 23, 2011, 09:59:48 PM
Seriously, how come he’s been so quiet now?
3352  Economy / Speculation / Re: My last Warning to the Bears on: December 20, 2011, 05:46:42 AM
This was the dip. Look back at the charts in April/May and learn. The market is parabolic now, so I would not be surprised to see even a move to double digit very quickly.
3353  Economy / Speculation / Re: My last Warning to the Bears on: December 20, 2011, 05:37:29 AM
To $10 it is 45k BTC on MtGox now.

I'm sure that'll fill in.
Are you back in?

Final really good chance if this is THE next wave up. Buy the dips/brief consolidations, as we are already parabolic …

are YOU back in?  you got pretty skeptical there.
Always been and always will be. I watched it go down to 1.99 without selling. I am always skeptical, but overall long-term bullish. Smiley Fundamentals trump technicals. Can’t win without being willing to risk it all.

I have a single bet, and that bet is that Bitcoin’s forced scarcity combined with decentralization will attract huge money. The move to 32 was not caused by this type of money. Before I see most of its potential reached, I’ll be in, whether I lose the bet or not.

Also, I wanted to stock up on more sub dollar Bitcoins like in April. Too bad it diidn’t happen. Grin
3354  Economy / Speculation / Re: My last Warning to the Bears on: December 20, 2011, 05:26:29 AM
To $10 it is 45k BTC on MtGox now.

I'm sure that'll fill in.
Are you back in?

Final really good chance if this is THE next wave up. Buy the dips/brief consolidations, as we are already parabolic …
3355  Economy / Speculation / My last Warning to the Bears on: December 20, 2011, 05:16:40 AM
To $10 it is 45k BTC on MtGox now.
3356  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nagle on: December 20, 2011, 04:49:36 AM
Poor Nagle! Sad
3357  Economy / Speculation / Nagle on: December 19, 2011, 01:47:48 PM
Are you long yet? You are suspiciously quiet.

How do you guys not see the history and the cycle? It happens every single effing month. The price crashes by ~20 to 50%, people panic and say Btcoin is dead, It stays down for about a week then the price rises, and people all say that this is the turning point. Eventually the price falls in line with the same straight (log) line of slow decline that it has been on since the middle of the summer and everyone declares that Bitcoin has stabilized. Then it happens again. It happened first in June, it happened in July, it happened in August, it happened in September, it happened in October, and now it's happening in November yet everyone is surprised every month.
Right.

BTC/USD, last 5 months, with 30 day trailing moving average.

I've been saying "long, slow slide" for months.

It's still not clear what the endgame is. It hardly matters at this point, though. As I point out occasionally, if one business the size of a typical single supermarket used Bitcoins, liquidating their daily receipts would crash the market.  Bitcoin is now too dinky to be used as a currency.
3358  Economy / Speculation / Re: Soon on: December 19, 2011, 01:46:33 PM
Crash to below 1 USD incoming. Nagle was right. This is a huge bubble.

The irrational bulls are declaring victory.
3359  Other / Off-topic / Re: Why I am glad I have clowned around on this forum... on: December 16, 2011, 11:14:13 AM
Thanks guys, the Reddit posts were hilarious.

NO GODS. NO MASTERS.

FUCK YOU, GOT MINE! Cheesy

It is possible that he will be unbanned in the future (months from now, at least) if he regains his sanity.
Really, I’m not sure if he has ever had any to begin with.
3360  Economy / Speculation / Re: over $3! almost 50% gain in 72 hours! on: December 12, 2011, 05:59:20 AM
Quote
proudhon, if you have abandoned Bitcoin, how come you show more activity than before?

Just hanging around for the thrilling conclusion.

Quote
Also, what will you do if it does break 3$?

I'll have been wrong.

Well, you were wrong.

3$ new support level now?

Wrong again, proudhon. Sad
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