yes, I agree. bitstamp price is ridiculous. bitstamp rally following a mtgox rally is even more ridiculous. if the price is decoupled, what is the reason for this rally? I will tell you :
It can only be trading bot algorithms are still 'hooked up' to Gox price movements. That was a lot of buying pressure that got triggered upon Gox's rise, which was based upon some rumour of BTC withdrawals being reenabled, which is actually bearish as hell for Stamp. I wasn't shorting Bitcoin at $580, but if I could have I would have. Would have been a harsh lesson in operating upon the premise that markets are rational....that and never short in a dead low volume market. $580 was never a big resistance point, $616 was next logical retracement target IMO.  I can't see it past $707 level, but a break of $640 will still look like a short-term break from the down trend. |
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Also, say Person A owns 100 BTC and Person B owns $50,000. If the trustee liquidates everything into JPY, then how much is $1 worth, and more importantly, how much is 1 BTC worth? If you say Person A is credited with 100 x the BTC liquidation value (adjusted proportionately to cover any missing funds), then wouldn't it be easier just to give them the BTC directly, thereby avoiding the liquidation? If you say something else, I'd like to hear what it is.
EDIT: Here's what I think: the trustee will calculate the total shortfall (let's assume 15% of the cash and 30% of the BTC is missing). Bitcoin holders will have their accounts debited by 30% and a small fiat credit added. Fiat holders will have their accounts debited by about 22% (whatever is required so that fiat and BTC holders share equally in the % loss).
The purpose of liquidation is to preserve (fiat) value of assets. If I may reiterate, the courts are not in the business of financial speculation. And it's not a simple matter of debiting USD and BTC ledgers on user accounts, since these are not Gox's only liabilities. It doesn't matter what's "easier." There's that "convenience" argument again. I just don't see it -- that's not how courts operate. If there is no legal reason to exempt bitcoins from liquidation, then they won't be. The example of stocks, bonds, etc. in regards to Chapter 7 filings that I brought up earlier is relevant here. Actually, I suspect that forcing creditors to speculate on investment vehicles throughout the whole of bankruptcy proceedings is likely illegal in most jurisdictions -- but that's just a guess. And I don't think that the question of whether bitcoins are legal tender -- thus sufficient to repay creditors in bankruptcy proceedings -- would be a precedent that will be set by a bankruptcy court. Thanks for the response MAbtc. In a bankruptcy proceeding, assets are liquidated (like you said) and distributed to the creditors in an equitable manner. If Person A owns 100 BTC and Person B owns $50,000, the trustee would have to translate Person A's holdings into "dollars" in order to calculate his claim. Do you expect they would use the liquidation value in $ / BTC to calculate Person A's claim? I wonder if the creditors would be able to bid on these BTC using some sort of credit arrangement backed by the expected disbursement of recovered funds. EDIT: Upon reflection, I think you are right: all assets would be liquidated into USD or JPY. The trustee and courts would make the Gox BTC holders happy by allowing them to bid on the Gox BTC. Somehow reasonable credit arrangements would be made available to the Gox creditors for the purposes of this auction. This credit would be backed by the expected disbursement of recovered funds. Are you saying that this liquidation would only happen on paper, prior to this credit-based auction? If I'm not misunderstanding, wouldn't this necessitate the trustee to hold BTC? If so, my thinking is that the trustee must protect creditors (and the court) from a fall in the price of BTC. If, for example, the price of BTC fell over the period of the bankruptcy proceedings, creditors would not be legally required to accept BTC as repayment -- that's the mandate of fiat currency. Then the state is left holding the bag. I don't see the courts approving of such moves. |
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But the street price or any longer term price, I feel the bottom is not far from 400.
Important part bolded. All deposit based exchange prices are no longer objective IMO. "Will I even get the fiat/BTC out of the exchnage?" is now firmly a part of everyone's psychology. Withdrawal circumstances can change suddenly, irrelevant of what has happened in the past. Maybe there will be an exchange that can get a long term stable withdrawal stream, but I'm not convinced yet. LocalBitcoins high for the last 24 hours? $1117. The 30 day high is $3000. Don't count on the veracity of the price discovery taking place in these deposit based exchanges, we've seen more than enough bot action to prove that over the past few days. When only hairless apes are trading, at the same speed they can do a real life exchange, you get a very different outcome. Where are you seeing such crazy prices? Localbitcoins is probably a good TA indicator to consider. During last blow off this past run up the premiums charged over exchange prices was laughably large. Do they have an avg price feed/chart? Trades on Localbitcoins are not verifiable. You can trade with yourself using multiple accounts. As long as you use their escrow system, the trade "happened." Likewise, all the people who use Localbitcoins to trade P2P for cash with no escrow -- those trades "never happened." I have never used escrow and have sold a good deal there. Anyway, there's this: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/localbtcUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25 |
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Gox might have 100,000 BTC. Assuming this is true, do you think they would dump these coins on BitStamp? Do you think they would hold an auction? How would the trustee do his duty to return good value to the creditors?
I imagine, similar to the SR situation, coins would not be dumped on an exchange. Perhaps an auction or series of off-exchange sales approved by the court. I have no idea. Also, say Person A owns 100 BTC and Person B owns $50,000. If the trustee liquidates everything into JPY, then how much is $1 worth, and more importantly, how much is 1 BTC worth? If you say Person A is credited with 100 x the BTC liquidation value (adjusted proportionately to cover any missing funds), then wouldn't it be easier just to give them the BTC directly, thereby avoiding the liquidation? If you say something else, I'd like to hear what it is.
EDIT: Here's what I think: the trustee will calculate the total shortfall (let's assume 15% of the cash and 30% of the BTC is missing). Bitcoin holders will have their accounts debited by 30% and a small fiat credit added. Fiat holders will have their accounts debited by about 22% (whatever is required so that fiat and BTC holders share equally in the % loss).
The purpose of liquidation is to preserve (fiat) value of assets. If I may reiterate, the courts are not in the business of financial speculation. And it's not a simple matter of debiting USD and BTC ledgers on user accounts, since these are not Gox's only liabilities. It doesn't matter what's "easier." There's that "convenience" argument again. I just don't see it -- that's not how courts operate. If there is no legal reason to exempt bitcoins from liquidation, then they won't be. The example of stocks, bonds, etc. in regards to Chapter 7 filings that I brought up earlier is relevant here. Actually, I suspect that forcing creditors to speculate on investment vehicles throughout the whole of bankruptcy proceedings is likely illegal in most jurisdictions -- but that's just a guess. And I don't think that the question of whether bitcoins are legal tender -- thus sufficient to repay creditors in bankruptcy proceedings -- would be a precedent that will be set by a bankruptcy court. |
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But goxcoin holders could just as well argue Bitcoin is cash.
I could also see trustees doing what is easiest and most efficient in terms of returning the monies involved. Remember gox is an international exchange; I don't see them liquidating into each and every account holders form of fiat.
Goxcoin holders can argue whatever they want. Doesn't change anything. You keep ignoring my points. This isn't about what Goxcoin holders want.If the world worked the way Goxcoin holders wanted, I have a feeling we'd be living in a very different reality. The currency issue is trivial. If anything, assets would probably be liquidated to JPY. I am assuming that the creditors in a MtGox bankruptcy proceeding would primarily be the Gox BTC and Gox USD holders. Do you disagree? The bankruptcy trustee will try to do what is in the best interest of the creditors. Do you disagree? No, I don't. I responded to this point earlier. What you believe are the best interests of the creditors, and what the trustee in bankruptcy believes they are (and what the courts will allow) are likely two very different things. But goxcoin holders could just as well argue Bitcoin is cash.
I could also see trustees doing what is easiest and most efficient in terms of returning the monies involved. Remember gox is an international exchange; I don't see them liquidating into each and every account holders form of fiat.
Goxcoin holders can argue whatever they want. Doesn't change anything. You keep ignoring my points. This isn't about what Goxcoin holders want. If the world worked the way Goxcoin holders wanted, I have a feeling we'd be living in a very different reality. The currency issue is trivial. If anything, assets would probably be liquidated to JPY. That's ridiculous. It would not be trivial not to mention totally unnecessary. Gox has thousands of customers. And moving it all to yen? Cmon. It would be much more efficient and expedient for trustees to return whatever currency an account holder had at the time of bk. It is a currency exchange after all. It's extremely trivial. Banks and currency exchanges do it on massive scales everyday. You're trying to come up with this bizarre "convenience" argument to route around any and all legal precedent. Tell it to the bankruptcy courts. Good luck. Efficiency and expedience are not characteristic of court systems. An emphasis on legal compliance is. The entire purpose of bankruptcy is to repay value pro rata to creditors -- not to "return whatever currency an account holder had at the time of bk." That is insane. Can you find me any historical examples, precedents where this would indicate payment in anything other than legal tender? These are state court proceedings, not the bitcoin wild west. |
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But goxcoin holders could just as well argue Bitcoin is cash.
I could also see trustees doing what is easiest and most efficient in terms of returning the monies involved. Remember gox is an international exchange; I don't see them liquidating into each and every account holders form of fiat.
Goxcoin holders can argue whatever they want. Doesn't change anything. You keep ignoring my points. This isn't about what Goxcoin holders want. If the world worked the way Goxcoin holders wanted, I have a feeling we'd be living in a very different reality. The currency issue is trivial. If anything, assets would probably be liquidated to JPY. |
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we don't know they'd liquidate the BTC since it's digital. all physical property sure.
even if they did liquidate BTC held into BK to USD to pay you back, it still would be better assuming the USD price continues to go up from here.
What we do know is that a) there is no legal basis or precedent to indicate that BTC would be exempt from liquidation, and b) there is no legal requirement to repay debts in any form other than fiat currency. On the second point, I don't understand. I'm saying: -Liquidate at current prices (whenever BK proceeds) -Case moves through the system over a period of years -Goxcoin holders are repaid based on the liquidation price --> What is the price of BTC against USD after years have gone by? Its your sequence of events I disagree with. I see liquidation of those coins late in the bk process if at all. Look how long the DOJ is taking with silk roads coins. If I had goxusd right now, I'd be buying goxBTC at these 90% discounted prices and just waiting it out. You either get appreciated BTC at the end of the long bk process or more usd if they liquidate late in the process. Furthermore, if they open up withdrawals soon you can get your coins out immediately before everyone else. That's not bankruptcy you are talking about. But of course, it wouldn't happen immediately. My point earlier was that from a long term bull's perspective, selling BTC at Point A and getting fiat down the line at Point B is a bad decision. Like I said, if it happens, I highly doubt Goxcoin holders will be paid in BTC. Nothing you've said really challenges that, certainly not from a legal perspective. In regards to the liquidation of BTC in a MtGox bankruptcy event, I suppose it's possible, but I doubt it would happen.
The important thing to remember is that the people making these decisions would be required to proceed in a manner that maximizes the assets returned to Gox creditors (i.e., the account holders owed Gox USD and Gox BTC). Bitcoins would only be liquidated if this seemed like the prudent course of action from the point of view of the Gox creditors. If liquidation is expected to return $0.25 on the dollar, then obviously the creditors would not be in favour of this.
That's all well and good. The fact is that the best interest of creditors is decided by the trustee. So while Goxcoin holders obviously prefer payment in BTC, the rest of the world (up to and including trustees in bankruptcy) is highly unlikely to view liquidating everything but the bitcoins as prudent. I'm a long term bull -- most of the world isn't. If you expect bankruptcy courts to magically change the rules for bitcoin such that trustees in bankruptcy are now entering the role of financial speculators -- I don't think so. For example, in a Chapter 7, stocks, bonds and other investments are generally considered non-exempt. Do you think trustees in bankruptcy decide which investments are good and which are bad? Do you think they liquidate the "bad investments" and distribute the rest -- perhaps a mish-mash of stocks, bonds and commodities --pro rata among creditors? No, they don't. If you think otherwise, I'd appreciate it if you could provide some examples. A trustee's role is to gather non-exempt property of the debtor, liquidate it and distribute the proceeds. Like I said, I am not an expert on bankruptcy proceedings. But what you are both suggesting appears to have absolutely no basis in any legal system. Having said that, this is all hypothetical and unlikely. |
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It's always just FUD.   |
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Whatever happened with the Coinlab lawsuit? Is this ongoing? I forgot all about it some time after the news originally surfaced.
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Posting that image, in the belief that it is remotely funny, proves you are rather brain dead. I am afraid.
and no, I am not an 'Animal Lib' type, I just dont like bland stupid people with the IQ of a monkey.
 Actually, I agree. That shit is uncalled for and unfunny. I'm not interested in seeing slaughtered bulls, either. |
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Even on the 9th, only daily volume of 70k.
You mean on stamp. 42mm USD. That's about 4 times the volume turning over on Gox now, and 0.5% of the total bitcoin marketcap. Gox is irrelevant. How does this compare to 136k on 12-17? |
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I love these threads. I remember when OP posted this, and thought to myself, shit, I better start selling.
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Please explain what you find 'strong' about this 'support' at $530?
well 1) we have tested it 3 times now and not broken it ( maybe sellers realize they are getting ripped off if they sell a bitcoin for less than that, no matter what FUD is going around) 2) may star daily candles, indicating disagreement on price... ( no shit FUD is scaring poeple into selling, while anyone with half a brain knows bitcoin is going places. ) 3) volume speaks volumes 4) because i say so. I was actually thinking that volume at every test of $530 was quite low. Even on the 9th, only daily volume of 70k. To me, looks like a local bottom only. |
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smoothie was wrong about predicting what happened last week so doubtful he'll has an ability to predit the future like he claims, infact since he was wrong he has more of a tendency to be wrong
lol what did I predict and please define a source within my posts last week where I was wrong in this so called "prediction"? Thanks thing is you didn't predict it which implicitly means you were wrong. this is noteworthy because you are pretending to predict the future now. is this hard for u to understand, fortuneteller? You're saying he was wrong because he didn't make a prediction? |
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agreed, two months is too wide a range, we're in a major period of price discovery at the moment, and I expect we'll find capitulation within the next week. Two months is pretty much guaranteed.
A week? That's pretty optimistic even for a bear.  I think we still may see some bounce from oversold conditions. This still on target for now: But TA takes a back seat to repeated Goxxing. We'll see what happens upon another update re: withdrawals and how closely Stamp follows... |
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But if I predicted a full two month window for capitulation (which in my mind, it'll happen within the next 2 weeks) and posted that on this board I would have absolutely been laughed at.
Many do not believe a capitulation event is coming from this point forward, so to assert that one is coming is substantive, I think. |
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we don't know they'd liquidate the BTC since it's digital. all physical property sure.
even if they did liquidate BTC held into BK to USD to pay you back, it still would be better assuming the USD price continues to go up from here.
What we do know is that a) there is no legal basis or precedent to indicate that BTC would be exempt from liquidation, and b) there is no legal requirement to repay debts in any form other than fiat currency. On the second point, I don't understand. I'm saying: -Liquidate at current prices (whenever BK proceeds) -Case moves through the system over a period of years -Goxcoin holders are repaid based on the liquidation price --> What is the price of BTC against USD after years have gone by? |
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Gox is trading at about 0.2x other exchanges, meaning you only need to recover 20% of your bitcoins(plus legal fees, ect.) to break even in the event of bankruptcy.
The conundrum for a long term bull: In the event of bankruptcy, Goxcoin holders risk receiving repayment of a % of their holdings years later based on a liquidation price far closer to the present. This means selling near the bottom and getting your fiat back when the price of BTC has risen by .... |
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Let's say gox goes belly up.
Does it really make sense that when the adjudicators are dividing up what little, and I mean little, spoils are left over after the years of litigation, that they'll say that these guys over here will get their dollars back but those guys over there with BTC won't?
No, they'll be legally bound to return whatever form of property you had on gox. It would be way better to come out of that with 90% discounted coins.
 Assets would be liquidated. Why do you assume BTC would not be? I highly doubt that BTC could be exempted from liquidation for any reason, but I am not well versed in bankruptcy law (in Japan, no less). After liquidation, creditors are repaid, ordered by priority, then pro rata based on what is left. What is this idea that "they'll be legally bound to return whatever form of property you had" based on? I suspect that the law deems fiat adequate for repayment of such debts..... isn't BTC money? every gov't on the planet seems to recognize it as such. why do you think they want their taxes from it and calls close to everyone who does business with it money transmitters? if i owned BTC on gox and needed it to be repaid after BK, i'd take the BTC, not cash. No precedent for that. No reason to think that choice exists, IMO. The only money that you must legally accept as repayment is fiat money. And I think BTC would be liquidated to fiat years before you could take repayment. I don't know about "every government on the planet" recognizing it as such -- but that is not relevant here, nor is money transmission. And governments want their taxes on commodity trading as well, don't they? And how about Japan? Regardless of anything, you have to admit that assuming that bankruptcy trustees will liquidate everything except bitcoin is a giant leap of faith. Do you have a legal basis for that? Regulators, bankruptcy courts and trustees do not necessarily cater to the logic of bitcoiners. But who knows? I don't. But I wouldn't touch Gox -- I simply think there are better bets to be had. |
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