rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[chessnut]

I personally think Bitcoin is dead as a speculative investment, and is moving towards being used as a currency for super geeks. We will never see $2000+ btc

Big finance corporations like visa and mastercard or Goldman whatever  will create new crypto protocols and upgrade their banking system for super fast transfers, the mainstream will never adopt an open source like bitcoin, never.

This is my opinion and hope u respect it.

We have seen drug dealers/users adapt bitcoin, and I dare say the mainstream could do it too - The full force of humanity can be captured by stupid meme's.
Paypal does not need to adapt bitcoin for it to succeed, BTCe, Bitstamp etc will grow to replace them.
the longest and greatest wave will be driven by the third world and financially butt hurt that actually need bitcoin, because they have no banking system, or because worse, they have a corrupt banking system.
smart individuals will make profits using bitcoin among poor peers, and the word will spread like wild fire.
when the stock crash comes and you know it will, there are many investors who would be glad to have 1% bitcoin in their portfolio. In the USA alone this represents 1% of around $90 trillion. do the maths.

[mmitech]

Looking at the TA (I am not an expert, maybe I am wrong) the bottom is sitting somewhere between 400-460, but with Gox BS and all the negativity around I wont be surprised if we hit 300-350 (maybe flash crash?)... I am more and more reconsidering my position, now I got some Fiat on Bitstamp and I have open orders till 430, so lets see how that plays out.

Before I was so sure about not breaking the 600's, but after going back and reading all predictions again, I feel so ignorant about my past statements...

[seleme]

Looking at the TA (I am not an expert, maybe I am wrong) the bottom is sitting somewhere between 400-460, but with Gox BS and all the negativity around I wont be surprised if we hit 300-350 (maybe flash crash?)... I am more and more reconsidering my position, now I got some Fiat on Bitstamp and I have open orders till 430, so lets see how that plays out.

Before I was so sure about not breaking the 600's, but after going back and reading all predictions again, I feel so ignorant about my past statements...

Only fools and losers don't change their stance if circumstances change 

[Carlton Banks]

But the street price or any longer term price, I feel the bottom is not far from 400.

Important part bolded.


All deposit based exchange prices are no longer objective IMO. "Will I even get the fiat/BTC out of the exchnage?" is now firmly a part of everyone's psychology. Withdrawal circumstances can change suddenly, irrelevant of what has happened in the past. Maybe there will be an exchange that can get a long term stable withdrawal stream, but I'm not convinced yet.

LocalBitcoins high for the last 24 hours? $1117. The 30 day high is $3000. Don't count on the veracity of the price discovery taking place in these deposit based exchanges, we've seen more than enough bot action to prove that over the past few days. When only hairless apes are trading, at the same speed they can do a real life exchange, you get a very different outcome.

[merkin51]

Can anyone suggest a good staggered buy order plan for $3000 on btc-e, for a noob like myself?

[rpietila]

Looking at the TA (I am not an expert, maybe I am wrong) the bottom is sitting somewhere between 400-460, but with Gox BS and all the negativity around I wont be surprised if we hit 300-350 (maybe flash crash?)... I am more and more reconsidering my position, now I got some Fiat on Bitstamp and I have open orders till 430, so lets see how that plays out.

Before I was so sure about not breaking the 600's, but after going back and reading all predictions again, I feel so ignorant about my past statements...

Welcome back from ignore. Yes, bottom is somewhere between 300-460, but the exact guessing can make you up to 50% richer...

[keithers]

Looking at the TA (I am not an expert, maybe I am wrong) the bottom is sitting somewhere between 400-460, but with Gox BS and all the negativity around I wont be surprised if we hit 300-350 (maybe flash crash?)... I am more and more reconsidering my position, now I got some Fiat on Bitstamp and I have open orders till 430, so lets see how that plays out.

Before I was so sure about not breaking the 600's, but after going back and reading all predictions again, I feel so ignorant about my past statements...

Welcome back from ignore. Yes, bottom is somewhere between 300-460, but the exact guessing can make you up to 50% richer...

I was planning on adding a few additional coins to my portfolio if we reach around $500, (anywhere above brings up my dollar cost average), so would you suggest staying put and seeing if we reach the 300-460 range?   Obviously I would like to get them as cheaply as possible, but I am long on all of the coins that I hold, so I guess the exact cost right now is less significant...

[Torque]

Looking at the TA (I am not an expert, maybe I am wrong) the bottom is sitting somewhere between 400-460, but with Gox BS and all the negativity around I wont be surprised if we hit 300-350 (maybe flash crash?)... I am more and more reconsidering my position, now I got some Fiat on Bitstamp and I have open orders till 430, so lets see how that plays out.

Before I was so sure about not breaking the 600's, but after going back and reading all predictions again, I feel so ignorant about my past statements...

Welcome back from ignore. Yes, bottom is somewhere between 300-460, but the exact guessing can make you up to 50% richer...

Risto, just curious: Do you think any positive news regarding Mt. Gox could raise the absolute bottom floor price range, or do you think it will hit that bottom range regardless?

I'd like to believe that Gox news (positive or negative) is already factored in, and capitulation to the bottom range you describe will happen regardless.  But Gox is still a bit of a wildcard IMO.  I'm not sure how much public sentiment is attached to it at this point.  For example, they could resume withdrawals and then shortly after a recovery could ensue, only to have them announce a "closing up shop" a few months later... which might affect another sharp drop in price...

[chessnut]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/mt--gox-slammed--why-bitcoin-s-troubles-aren-t-over-160229892.html
some really negative bitch slap news up there ^^
The poll on the side goes like this;

"Buying the dips" - 7769 people voted. 57%
"Staying in cash" - 3605 people voted. 36%
"Im out! sell sell sell!" - 2278 people voted. 17%

I think at a place like "yahoo finance" we can find the sentiment we are looking for. This is clearly a bullish bias sentiment.
We can expect further declines.

ps. vote 'buying the dips' and help to fudge the facts!

[User705]

But the street price or any longer term price, I feel the bottom is not far from 400.

Important part bolded.


All deposit based exchange prices are no longer objective IMO. "Will I even get the fiat/BTC out of the exchnage?" is now firmly a part of everyone's psychology. Withdrawal circumstances can change suddenly, irrelevant of what has happened in the past. Maybe there will be an exchange that can get a long term stable withdrawal stream, but I'm not convinced yet.

LocalBitcoins high for the last 24 hours? $1117. The 30 day high is $3000. Don't count on the veracity of the price discovery taking place in these deposit based exchanges, we've seen more than enough bot action to prove that over the past few days. When only hairless apes are trading, at the same speed they can do a real life exchange, you get a very different outcome.

Where are you seeing such crazy prices?  Localbitcoins is probably a good TA indicator to consider.  During last blow off this past run up the premiums charged over exchange prices was laughably large.  Do they have an avg price feed/chart?

[MAbtc]

But the street price or any longer term price, I feel the bottom is not far from 400.

Important part bolded.


All deposit based exchange prices are no longer objective IMO. "Will I even get the fiat/BTC out of the exchnage?" is now firmly a part of everyone's psychology. Withdrawal circumstances can change suddenly, irrelevant of what has happened in the past. Maybe there will be an exchange that can get a long term stable withdrawal stream, but I'm not convinced yet.

LocalBitcoins high for the last 24 hours? $1117. The 30 day high is $3000. Don't count on the veracity of the price discovery taking place in these deposit based exchanges, we've seen more than enough bot action to prove that over the past few days. When only hairless apes are trading, at the same speed they can do a real life exchange, you get a very different outcome.

Where are you seeing such crazy prices?  Localbitcoins is probably a good TA indicator to consider.  During last blow off this past run up the premiums charged over exchange prices was laughably large.  Do they have an avg price feed/chart?

Trades on Localbitcoins are not verifiable. You can trade with yourself using multiple accounts. As long as you use their escrow system, the trade "happened." Likewise, all the people who use Localbitcoins to trade P2P for cash with no escrow -- those trades "never happened." I have never used escrow and have sold a good deal there.

Anyway, there's this: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/localbtcUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

[rpietila]

I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.



Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.

[2017orso]

http://www.macabenefits.net/malla/

I don't recall the name of the poet who remarked something along the lines of "there are many good people in the world, they just don't have each others phone numbers".

Yours is a terrific effort, looks great, congratulations.

[skibe]

I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.

https://i.imgur.com/PBCbZKd.png

Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.

That looks incredible.  Are you planning to use it as a residence as well or will it function as a gathering point for elite BTC-ers?

[Carlton Banks]

Trades on Localbitcoins are not verifiable. You can trade with yourself using multiple accounts. As long as you use their escrow system, the trade "happened." Likewise, all the people who use Localbitcoins to trade P2P for cash with no escrow -- those trades "never happened."

It's interesting though that when you look at long term LocalBitcoins charts, the bias is always towards over-expensive rates. Why hasn't there been corresponding attempts to depress the price, selling to yourself too low? Not sure how to account for that.

The SSL logs for trade verifications project looks promising as a way of proving the fiat quantity paid (LocalBitcoins will accept a webpage screenshot  ), but I expect a commercial/centralised service will never implement it. Fortunately, p2p exchanges are more developed than the last time I checked, and some are intending to use it, and could do so without system-wide issues. If they were to broadcast a feed of trades too, then we might well have the best platform for price discovery yet. I wonder what would happen to the charts if the majority of trade was done with the minimum friction that those exchanges would bring. Disincluding p2p cash trades from any trading API would be a must, of course.

I no longer accept that Stamp or BTC-e & Kraken etc really represent an undistorted price discovery mechanism, the Gox issues have brought the redeeming/withdrawal issues to the front of everyone's minds when making trading judgements. This may improve. Or get worse. Currently, the indications are that free market price discovery with commercial exchanges is going to be made exclusive at some future point. I'm not impressed with such a prospect, personally.

I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.



Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.

Haha, that's amazing. Hope the deal goes through ok, bitcoin country mansion retreats FTW. Wearing monocles should be mandatory.

[tablemanic]

I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.

https://i.imgur.com/PBCbZKd.png

Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.

Very impressive! I've been watching your thread for a long time although I haven't been active on this forum. I'm sad to hear that your thinking about leaving the forum, so I just want to thank you for the quality of the posts that you have provided and wish you the best.

[ArticMine]

I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.



Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.

Congratulations on your purchase.

[seleme]

127 acres, jeez, that's what you call privacy.

It's pretty cheap for million euro to be honest. Building(s), land, history..

http://www.arcovara.ee/en/malla

[windjc]

Congratulations! I will definitely come by if I ever come nearby.

How long will the renovation take? How much has already been done? Does it still like this, or has renovation already been underway?

http://register.muinas.ee/?menuID=monument&action=view&id=16010

[ArticMine]

127 acres, jeez, that's what you call privacy.

It's pretty cheap for million euro to be honest. Building(s), land, history..

http://www.arcovara.ee/en/malla

It is a very good purchase. I am not familiar at all with the Estonian real estate market, but it is apparent to anyone with experience in real estate that the value is there. Having said this I suspect the real hard part here was not the purchase of this property, but rather getting the million euro out of MTGox.