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521  Economy / Economics / Re: The reason that crude oil price crashed on: December 28, 2014, 07:26:22 PM
A significant increase in the use of nuclear power in Japan (and more importantly elsewhere) will likely lead to long term lower oil prices. It remains that nuclear energy is much safer and much cleaner then other types of energy (including 'green' energy like solar and wind)
Because windmills also sometimes create superfund radioactive sites where human life is impossible for generations?
Nuclear is safer and cleaner, except when it isn't.  Fusion reactors please.  These fission fails are for the lose.
It is very rare that nuclear reactors meltdown. The last time this happened was in Japan in 2011 and the time before that was in the mid 1980's.

It was also estimated that there would have been few deaths of people who were living in the evacuated areas in the 2011 incident, although people who would have stayed and continued to live would have had a higher risks of certain cancers, although still overall low risk.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_and_radiation_accidents_and_incidents#Nuclear_meltdown

Yes I am aware that there are more nuclear reactors that haven't had catastrophic failures that have resulted in massive and unresolvable pollution effects that have damaged those that were completely unrelated to the reactor and derived none of its benefits while running.
So how rare are these windmill meltdowns?

You brought up the comparison, claiming the fission reactors are cleaner and safer.  Maybe you are right, but just how did you come to this assessment?
522  Economy / Economics / Re: The reason that crude oil price crashed on: December 28, 2014, 03:31:14 PM
It will over-correct, and then come up from that, irrespective of central banking influences (which effect everything priced, and also oil).
Usage will increase due to the lower price.  Some of that will be price dependent uses (some things are economical at a lower price but not at a higher price).  Those will trail off when price climbs again.
523  Economy / Economics / Re: The reason that crude oil price crashed on: December 28, 2014, 01:01:57 PM
simultaneously with the Japanese bringing nuclear back online

Reasonable explanation especially since Abe, who is conspicuously pro nuclear reopening, won a decisive election victory a few weeks ago. While only one (or possibly zero, I'm not sure) Japanese nuclear plant has literally reopened so far, the market may be responding to expectations they will reopen.

There was a large run up in oil prices from about 80 USD to 120 USD in 2011 after Fukushima.



Decreasing demand and increasing supply is the reason oil crashed.

You should understand that "demand" and "usage" are not the same thing here.  USAGE increased, DEMAND (at a given price) decreased because of expectations of increasing SUPPLY.

The suppliers then rush to get the oil sold asap so they can get ahead of a price drop, which drives it lower still.  So it over-corrects.  It happens on the rises too.

Usage is also a measure of economic activity.  Globally usage is increasing, it will likely increase more swiftly with the lower prices.
524  Economy / Economics / Re: The reason that crude oil price crashed on: December 28, 2014, 12:56:48 PM
A significant increase in the use of nuclear power in Japan (and more importantly elsewhere) will likely lead to long term lower oil prices. It remains that nuclear energy is much safer and much cleaner then other types of energy (including 'green' energy like solar and wind)
Because windmills also sometimes create superfund radioactive sites where human life is impossible for generations?
Nuclear is safer and cleaner, except when it isn't.  Fusion reactors please.  These fission fails are for the lose.
525  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 28, 2014, 03:47:56 AM
526  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: December 28, 2014, 02:30:51 AM
Is it possible to change quarry inputs yet?


I'd like to discuss about the modified rules for the game first. The next quarry-year will only change after at least some discussion has taken place first Smiley
If we wanted to repeat the game with the secrets revealed, there could be the addition, "The Exploration Game", which could add provably fair random quarry numbers that result from hiring geologists to survey some lands.  It would be a bit of a gamble, because you would have to pay before you knew the result, but once you have the result, you could then auction or sell the quarry on a market, or run a quarry.  It's value would fluctuate based on stone price, quarry location excellence, and other factors. 
527  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 27, 2014, 09:37:00 PM
Store of value function is a consequence of future economic relevance.

People store their wealth in stocks because they assume companies will have an economic relevance in the future. In gold because they assume that gold will have an economic relevance in the future. In BTC because they assume the network will have a future economic relevance.

Gold isn't the only SOV, it's just happens to be the one with the lower risk over long period, hence its popularity.

BTC will eat a good chunk of the SOV market, but it will not become the only means to transfer value in the future.
It's funny that gold is perceived as low risk. I think that perception inverts at some point. Given that gold no longer has any direct connection whatsoever to our monetary system or day-to-day economy, it sounds incredibly risky to me. There's no functional demand underpinning its value beyond the $300/oz (or whatever) of industrial-use demand, and it's a huge pain to actually manage ownership of it.

The risk of gold has a lot to do with its physical properties.  In the Egyptian pyramids, the gold (that hadn't been plundered) was just as it was when it was put there.  Most everything else was ravaged by time.  The small silver chains had become silver oxide dust, even most of the language was lost to antiquity and great effort has gone into decyphering its meanings with moderate success.

BIS still lists gold as an Tier 1 asset for central banks that use the option to do so.  The other tier 1 assets are mostly other central bank currencies and form the SDRs for inter-central bank settlements.  We aren't handing it back and forth to buy and sell stuff, but the central banks sometimes still do so.
528  Economy / Economics / Re: The reason that crude oil price crashed on: December 27, 2014, 01:30:43 AM
Post-Fukushima, oil went on a tear, as the Japanese (and, by self-infliction, the Germans) needed gas and oil to replace off-lined nuclear.  The single largest consumer of petroleum on the planet is the U.S. military.  When they were fully stocked and reduced operations, simultaneously with the expansion of tight oil production, simultaneously with the Japanese bringing nuclear back online, a crash became inevitable.  It won't last long, but it can go very deep:  Qatar and the Saudis can operate existing wells on a $20 marginal barrel price, or less.
 

It will also over-correct (and may be doing so now) because with the expectation of lower prices in the future, there will be a rush to fill the market at the current price ahead of competition which will drive prices lower than the market-clearing rate.
529  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 26, 2014, 04:44:18 PM
...
No, it's called a negative feedback loop and should probably respond like any other damped oscillation.
...

Not all negative feedback loops result in damped oscillation.  Oscillators, for instance, are simply a negative feedback loop with a time delay.
This is sorta important to remember, and the reason not everything should be modeled on pendulum of a run-down clock.

The expert on negative feedback tells all.
530  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: December 26, 2014, 02:02:49 PM
Thank you for the correction but I don't understand these numbers. How does 1,000,000 gold per day turn into 5K per year?

1,000,000 are mined by the the king.
Mining is done each day.

Yes, the way it was written it could have been ambiguous without seeing the example of how it is done in the game, it is fairly plain once you see how it has worked in operation.

English is a sometimes tricky language.
531  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: December 26, 2014, 08:53:19 AM
What is the current & total gold supply? How fast is it growing, what formula is being used?

Fascinating  thread!

The total gold supply is cell F1 on the CHAR sheet, which currently shows 685,000. I could be wrong but I don't think it is growing at all, just being traded between players (including the king, who started with all of it). My understanding is that it will start to grow in the online version by being issued to active players at a very slow rate.

The total grows 5K per year as HM previously elucidated.  This has been constant (though years to days has halved).  We are still in the Ancient phase.

Quote from: HM The King
In the Ancient phase of the game, which lasts 140 real-days, a total of 1,000,000 gold are mined each day by the King. He seeks to sells half of them to the investors or players to fund the development. Gold is an income-generating resource, granting building resources in the Ancient era and XMR in the Economy era. In the Economy era, King no longer mines gold but rather new gold is generated to all players of the game in proportion to time spent online (captcha will be asked, to ensure only human playing generates gold). At the current exchange rates, 1 real-month of rather active play generates 7 gold (from Version 5: Economy onwards). Owners of gold select the town council. It also has various ingame prestige uses as a luxury resource. Gold's value is measured in a free market.
532  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 26, 2014, 05:23:54 AM
There's lots of talk about cheap Bitcoins

So what USD Value do you think a Bitcoin would be cheap ?

Below average mining price, whatever price that may be.
We soon may find out however.

The value of something is not how much it costs to produce.

The value of something is exactly what someone is willing to pay.

The world was willing to pay 80$ a barrel of oil because that was the lowest price offered. Now the Saudis are offering it cheaper (because they produce it cheaper) and the world is willing to pay 60$. Obviously value is some combination of both.

So the question becomes: who will be able to produce the cheapest coins, and if the world will be willing to pay that price when it hits?

The production rate is pretty well determined from the outset.  So it may not be the production that matters so much.... Say if Karpales may find another 600K bitcoin somewhere in an "old format wallet" after all the BK issues are resolved.
533  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 26, 2014, 03:38:12 AM
...
Quote from: Wei Dai
...violence is impossible because its participants cannot be linked to their true names or physical locations.

Not quite...



LOL, you know Wei Dai wrote that like a decade before Bitcoin right?
Justus is merely pointing out that the anti-theft elements of cryptographic solutions were contemplated long before it occurred to oakpacific this week.
The potential to do what governing that needs to be done with less of a central authority is one of the values crypto has the potential to add.

And Charlie pled out to a Money Transmission violation, not theft anyway.  The MTLs are arbitrary barriers to entry set up by banking to wall off their industry from competition.  I don't know who Charlie's victim is there... Citibank? for not being able to collect their customary fees?

The MTLs are part of banking's war on cash.  So that they can control the ledgers.  The Bank Secrecy Act laws preventing un-monitored transfers of US$10K were written when? in 1970? They haven't been adjusted for inflation since?

In today's dollars that would be over US$60K
http://www.dollartimes.com/inflation/inflation.php?amount=10000&year=1970

So what may have been thought of as a reasonable law then, is insane today.   The frog is well and truly boiled.
534  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 25, 2014, 01:13:58 PM
What happened with LTC/CNY on OKCoin, currently at 1985 CNY  Shocked

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/okcoin/ltccny


someone panic bought and closed his shorts.

LOL
Crossed the streams with the BTC/CNY  LTC/CNY
535  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Illinois Just Made it a Felony for Its Citizens to Record the Police on: December 24, 2014, 10:08:31 PM
Is it a good thing this didn't happen in Illinois?

http://thefreethoughtproject.com/cops-beat-man-7-month-pregnant-wife-deleted-video-survived-cloud/

icloud apparently saved the video before the officer deleted it from the device so the "shooter" managed to retrieve it.

Yep, inadmissible in court doesn't mean it isn't admissible in the court of public opinion. Live casting services are your best protection against abusive thieving cops trying to destroy your property to hide their crimes.

I was asking the question because if this was in Illinois, he could be charged with a felony?  The police could then go to his home and take him into custody.  What happens after that, who could say?

The police can (and will) charge you with anything. I would like to think that the DA has better sense than to try to pursue felony wire tapping charges against a guy who recorded a cop beating his pregnant wife to death. The optimist in me wants to believe that would bring a nightmare of public outrage.

Sometimes people just die in jail and never make it to a trial.  Some are unexplained, others are "suicides" or "natural causes".  I hear it is not a fun place and can be depressing or stressful.
536  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 24, 2014, 09:09:16 PM
Xmas rally ... derp  Tongue



Good call on the 6hr PSAR  Tzupy  Smiley

This is the live cat bounce?
537  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 24, 2014, 07:56:02 PM
I'm not certain dark wallet can provide the same level of anonymity as Monero does.
I looked at both and agree.
It isn't the same at all, but it is similar.  
So it's probably "good enough" for some folks, up until when it isn't good enough.
The wallet is great for all who are married for life to XBC, and I'm happy it is there, but also like the availability of privacy built in to the XMR protocol.
That it is built in, makes best practice into common practice.  Choices make both better.
538  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: December 24, 2014, 03:51:02 PM
Free Stone this Christmas!



The RAQ quarry wants to wish Merry Christmas to all its shareholders, and has decided to gift each and every one of them with 5,000 free stone!
This stone is now on the accounts of each of the 10 shareholders.

In the spirit of Christmas it is decided that this free gift is also delivered to anyone, existing or new shareholder, who buys minimum of 10 RAQ shares from Roopatra/NL, out of those on offer at the market in Corp tab. This free gift will be delivered until midnight GMT on the 26th December (or as long as there are shares available for purchase).

Merry Christmas everyone!

Best Regards,
RAQ Quarry Corporation


Thats a sweet Christmas dividend! Another reason to choose Dame Roopatra as my Architect of choice on the everyday basis. Feliz Navidad to you and all my fellow (and more wealthy now! shareholders of RAQ Corp!)

Lord Paulson, Esq.

EDIT: I just want to let all my fellow players and HM of course, that the Crypto Kingdom thread has made into the Third Page of the Most Viewed Altcoin Discussion Threads of All Time ! We are competing directly in engagement with full altcoin developments and important discussion topics. The best is yet to come, Thanks All!

In a way, the moneritos and CKG are side chains of Monero, even the stone, clothes and houses.  Functionally they are similar, but without the mining.
They are another type of currency.  Instead of proof of work, they are proof of fun.
539  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 24, 2014, 02:29:48 PM
out of curiosity to the security experts here.

which do you consider more secure, Armory or Trezor?

I'm not a security expert, but I would say trezor (with passphrase).

It's also easier to use securely.


Trezor seems safe. A simple paper wallet generated offline on a new computer running linux is safe too  Wink

Did you miss Rocks post above discussing the vulnerability of using new computers, or just saying it is safe enough for you because you disagree with the risk?
540  Economy / Economics / Re: The reason that crude oil price crashed on: December 24, 2014, 10:15:18 AM
Recent discussion of value in another forum proved again: supply and demand analysis only works when currency supply does not change. Now when currency supply suddenly changes (QE stopped), the total effect on the market is dominant, outweighs small change in supply and demand

The liquidity crisis will be first felt in oil, then cost of everything will go down, creating a race to the bottom price war, then mass firing of labor force...

The QE has barely made it out of the banks and into industry in the USA, and pretty much all the other central banks are just cranking it up.  Those currency supply effects are a bit further downstream, money supply is still growing just slower in the USA and faster elsewhere.

QE did not flow into US economy, since the return is bad there. But after banks get rid of bad assets, their extra liquidity went into middle east and those shale companies

I wish you were right and that the bubble would pop and get a little bit of fiscal and monetary sanity back, but look at the numbers.  The Fed created over 4 Trillion of new money on its balance sheet in the last QE.  (The UCB, China, BOE and others are still pumping strong yet so we won't even start adding those.)
Globally 550 Billion of new bond debt issues in oil and gas total globally since 2010 were issued.
Most estimates are that this can get up to maybe 10% default rate.  The magnitude of the issue is dwarfed by new money creation which is still ongoing.

The point here is that it doesn't pop the bubble, its just froth.  Its still getting worse and will likely continue to do so with the QE being considered a "success" until it is much worse than this.
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