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1121  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Increasing the block size is a good idea; 50%/year is probably too aggressive on: October 17, 2014, 05:20:54 PM
It would seem that there could be a simple mathematical progressive increase/decrease, which is based on the factual block chain needs and realities of the time that can work forever into the future.

Here is an example that can come close to Gavin's first proposal of 50% increase per year.

If average block size of last 2 weeks is 60-75% of the maximum, increase maximum 1%, if >75% increase 2%
If average block size of last 2 weeks is 25-40% of the maximum decrease maximum 1%, if <29% decrease 2%

Something like this, would have no external dependencies, would adjust based on what future events may come, and won't expire or need to be changed.

These percentage numbers are ones that I picked arbitrarily.  They are complete guesses and so I don't like them anymore than any other number.  This is just to create a model of the sort of thing that would be better than extrapolating.  To do even better, we can do a regression analysis of previous blocks to see where we would be now and tune it further from there.

This may be manipulable:  miners with good bandwidth can start filling the blocks to capacity, to increase the max and push miners with smaller bandwidth out of competition.

Agreed.  And thank you for contributing.

It is offered as an example of the sort of thing that can work, rather than a finished product.
It is merely "better" not best.  I don't think we know of something that will work yet.
By better, I mean that Gavin gets his +50%/year, iff it is needed, and not if it isn't.  And if circumstances change, so does the limit.

If it is 100% manipulated, it is only as bad as Gavin's first proposal. (+4% or so)
That of course could only happen if miners with good bandwidth win all block and also want to manipulate.

If we fear manipulation, we can add anomaly dropping  and exclude the 10% most extreme outside of standard variance (so that fully padded and empty blocks are dropped out of the calculations).

It would be good to avoid creating any perverse incentives entirely wherever possible.

And again, the percentages chosen here are samples only, arbitrarily chosen.  A regression analysis of the block chain ought be employed to determine where we would be with this sort of thing as well as how it would affect the path forward.


The point here is to allow market forces to dictate.  If some miners want to shrink block size to make transactions more precious and extract fees, others will want to get those fees and increase block size.  We want something that can work in perpetuity, not a temporary fix which may get adjusted centrally whenever the whim arises.

Our guide must be math and measurement, not central committees, no matter how smart they may be.
1122  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: October 17, 2014, 03:07:01 PM
Ah OK thanks, I missed that. "Virtual World" was misleading, I imagined fully immersive VR with Oculus Rift display interface, super high resolution, videorealism, hyper-realistic physics... ;-)

Well why not.
Plus consciousness transfer for complete immersion.


Who knows?  May go there is future versions.
SoCal is a gamemaker/movie/entertainment hub so I rub elbows with those guys often enough.

But at the moment the budget for such a game would be above the total market cap of XMR, give it a couple years.
1123  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Increasing the block size is a good idea; 50%/year is probably too aggressive on: October 17, 2014, 02:59:58 PM
It would seem that there could be a simple mathematical progressive increase/decrease, which is based on the factual block chain needs and realities of the time that can work forever into the future.

Here is an example that can come close to Gavin's first proposal of 50% increase per year.

If average block size of last 2 weeks is 60-75% of the maximum, increase maximum 1%, if >75% increase 2%
If average block size of last 2 weeks is 25-40% of the maximum decrease maximum 1%, if <29% decrease 2%

Something like this, would have no external dependencies, would adjust based on what future events may come, and won't expire or need to be changed.

These percentage numbers are ones that I picked arbitrarily.  They are complete guesses and so I don't like them anymore than any other number.  This is just to create a model of the sort of thing that would be better than extrapolating.  To do even better, we can do a regression analysis of previous blocks to see where we would be now and tune it further from there.
1124  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: How to get my BTC money refunded? on: October 17, 2014, 01:22:50 PM
Try to contact them, if no response for more than a week, it means you won't get your money back because that ptc site was scam. Then post your tx id on its forum to tell other members that the site going to scam.

I wonder how much good that will do.  Are there any PTC sites that are not scams?
I remember goofing off with some of these PTC faucets for a while.  They all seem so very dodgy.
1125  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Monero Economy Workgroup - The MEW Thread on: October 17, 2014, 01:18:48 PM
A D V E R T I S E M E N T  -  O P P O R T U N I T Y

The early adopter phase of the Monero virtual world - Crypto Kingdom is starting NOW.

If you are interested in the game, want to fund its development, and enjoy a bit of speculation, now it is possible to buy ingame gold. Minimum at this point is for 100 XMR (about BTC2.5) but it will be listed soon and then smaller lots become possible.

MEW members get a 20% discount, up to the maximum purchase that is equal to their MEW votepower. Purchases higher than this go at normal price. MEW discount will be removed some time before ingome gold becomes freely tradable.

In my eagerness for this I even wasted some time on that weird psychodelic 2d world building website you linked the other day.
So yeah, I'm in.  As the saying goes "Shut up and take my Monero!"

If after a look through it seems suitable for a fairly worldly 14yr old, I may be getting my son an account too.
1126  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Buying on Silk Road on: October 17, 2014, 01:05:51 PM
I want to buy USD on the Silk Road with BTC, genuine bills not counterfeit. Would this be illegal in the USA?

Obviously the Silk Road has a bad reputation and 95% of the website is illegal things for sale. I do not see how any laws would be broken by simply exchanging Bitcoin for American dollars, regardless of the website the exchange is conducted on.

For what its worth, buying counterfeit bills is also not illegal.
Doing so with the intent to pass them into circulation is.
Collectors buy counterfeits all the time, there's nothing illegal about that.

PRO TIP:  Don't even put them in the same pocket or container as legit money.  Keep them packaged and separate.  This is to avoid even the appearance of any impropriety.
1127  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: How to get my BTC money refunded? on: October 17, 2014, 07:36:17 AM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paid_To_Click

My best guess on "PTC site".
1128  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 17, 2014, 04:53:50 AM
The last two are related.
Naked shorts would only be possible by leaving coins on exchange.
1129  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Increasing the block size is a good idea; 50%/year is probably too aggressive on: October 17, 2014, 02:16:06 AM
Sure, we were also able to get x.25 and x.75 telecom to run over barbed wire, in the lab.  (There are places in the world that still use these protocols, some of which would deeply benefit from bitcoin in their area.)
The logistical challenges of implementation is not what you find in the lab.  
This stuff has to go out in environments where someone backs up their truck into a cross country line so they can cut it and drive off with a few miles of copper to sell as scrap.  We live in the world, not in the lab.

We're in luck then, because one advantage of fiber lines over copper is they're not good used for anything other than telecom Smiley

I'm no telecommunications specialist, but do have an electronics engineering background. Raise some issue with fundamental wave transmission and maybe I can weigh in. My understanding is it's easier to install fiber lines, for example, because there is no concern over electromagnetic interference. Indeed, the fiber lines I witnessed being installed a week ago were being strung right from power poles.

However, is such theoretical discussion even necessary? We have people being offered 2Gbps bandwidth over fiber not in theory but in practice in Japan, today.

That's already orders of magnitude over our starting bandwidth numbers. I agree with Gavin that demand for more bandwidth is inevitable. It's obvious all networks are converging - telephone, television, radio, internet. We'll eventually send all our data over the internet, as we largely do now, but in ever increasing bandwidth usage. To imagine progress in technology will somehow stop for no apparent reason, when history is chock full of people underestimating what technological capacity we actually experience is not only shortsighted, it borders unbelievable.

Perhaps few disagree that Bitcoin can be improved by a plan for block size maximum adjustment.  My issues with the proposals are less what it achieves (a good thing) but what it doesn't (preventing this from happening in the future).

There are myriad external realities that we can not know about.  The development of the telecom technology is perhaps less the issue than what the world has in store for us in the coming decades.  I don't know, and no one else does either, but that shouldn't stop us from striving to achieve what has not been done before.

Undersea cables are cut accidentally, and by hostile actions, economic meltdowns and military conflicts halt or destroy deployments, plagues, natural disasters etc, OR new developments can accelerate everything, robots might do this all for us.  We can't know by guessing today what the right numbers will be.  We could be high or low.  I am just hoping that some more serious thought goes into avoiding the need to guess or extrapolate (an educated guess but still a guess).  We do not have a crisis today other than some pending narrow business concerns (some of which are on the board of TBF and possibly suggested that Gavin "do something").  I am also thankful that he is doing so.  This is an effort that deserves attention (even with the other mitigating efforts already in development).  Gavin is a forward thinking man, and is serving his role well.  We should be all glad that he is not alone in this, and that no one person has the power to make such decisions arbitrarily for others.

The difficulty adjustment algorithm works without knowing the future.  We should similarly look for a way that can also work for many generations, come what may, and save Bitcoin from as many future hard forks as we can. 

This is our duty, to our future, by virtue of us being here at this time.
1130  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN] Physical Litecoins by the Litecoin Foundation on: October 17, 2014, 12:59:42 AM
Over a year has passed since this announcement and still Goat has failed to deliver on his supposed "not-for-profit" physical litecoins.

At least it can be known that Goat has shown no proof that his efforts in this supposed project were genuine as there is no design, holograms, certificates, and most importantly no coins.

This thread was created the day after Goat and I had a supposed disagreement in PMs on this forum which confirms my suspicions that this thread was an attempt to troll me and in essence gave false hope to other prospective coin buyers that they would have an alternative in the near future from the time the thread was started.

Promise after promise was made and none were ever kept. Now Goat has been banned from the forums for going off the deep end and has been accused by multiple parties that he owes them a substantial amount of BTC that he refuses to pay (which was debt from his previously failed businesses/stocks/etc.).

Now he has gone rogue and his trust has plummeted since he has been gone.

This should not come as a surprise as Goat has always been a shady character on these forums.

 Roll Eyes

This isn't goat's fault, its mine.  I'm too much a perfectionist with these things.
I have prototypes, and much of the work toward this done, but am way behind on most everything I've committed to and this is no exception.
1131  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: October 16, 2014, 10:15:51 PM
Anyone - anyone - looking for counsel and direction from a polticized agency such as the CDC is banking up the wrong tree.

If you are banking in a tree you are doing it wrong.


Or VERY right!
1132  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: October 16, 2014, 10:08:30 PM
Given the healthcare worker's recent exposure to Duncan, she was "self-monitoring" for any symptoms of Ebola and—according to the CDC—should not have traveled on a commercial airline until the incubation period for the disease had ended.

She should be charged with attempted murder, IMO.   Undecided

She called the CDC before her flight and they cleared her for the flight. Yes, she shouldn't have flown but the CDC is at fault for not being more vigilant here.

Nope.  She should have recorded the call, explicitedly called them dumb asses, asked them if they had any other stupid advice, and then put the call on youtube.

Anyone - anyone - looking for counsel and direction from a polticized agency such as the CDC is banking up the wrong tree.

Yes, personal responsibility should trump. 
This, I think is the core element of this thread.  If you rely on someone else to protect you, you are at their mercy.

In her case, she was selfish, wanted to be close to the CDC and get the best treatment experimental science could offer.  Others are likely to do the same. 

Still others will feel hopeless and depressed, angry at the world, and viciously try to infect others as a means of unjust retribution.  So few are noble or heroic.
1133  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Increasing the block size is a good idea; 50%/year is probably too aggressive on: October 16, 2014, 09:59:59 PM
Then... who knows? Every prediction of "this will surely be enough technology" has turned out to be wrong so far.
We agree.
1134  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Increasing the block size is a good idea; 50%/year is probably too aggressive on: October 16, 2014, 09:29:38 PM
While (I think we'd all agree  that) predicting technology decades ahead is hard,
 it is not impossible that a group of specialists,  after a thorough discussion, could
get the prediction about right.

I linked you to the report of Bell Labs achieving 10Gbps over copper wire. Here is the link to them achieving 100 petabits per second over fiber in 2009:

http://www.alcatel-lucent.com/press/2009/001797

Quote
This transmission experiment involved sending the equivalent of 400 DVDs per second over 7,000 kilometers, roughly the distance between Paris and Chicago.

These are demonstrated capacities for these two mediums. The only limiting factors for achieving such rates for individual consumers are physical and economic considerations for building out the infrastructure. Nonetheless the technologies for achieving exponential increase in bandwidth over current offerings is proven. Achieving these rates in practice on a scale coinciding with historical exponential growth of 50% annually, which does take into consideration economic and physical realities, seems well within reason. I'm sure telecommunications specialists would agree.

As a telecommunication specialist, No. I do not agree.

Sure, we were also able to get x.25 and x.75 telecom to run over barbed wire, in the lab.  (There are places in the world that still use these protocols, some of which would deeply benefit from bitcoin in their area.)
The logistical challenges of implementation is not what you find in the lab. 
This stuff has to go out in environments where someone backs up their truck into a cross country line so they can cut it and drive off with a few miles of copper to sell as scrap.  We live in the world, not in the lab.

Designing something to work and designing to not fail are entirely different endeavors and someone qualified for one is not necessarily qualified to even evaluate the other.
1135  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 16, 2014, 09:05:00 PM
I feel like I must be in a parallel universe or there is something I'm not reading correctly.

It is strange to me that the work on the game would cause people to somehow feel worse about XMR.  It's not like rpietila is the main dev working on any of the other dev team projects.  This is just a cherry on top of the sundae.  I mean, if they came out and said, "hey, we're going to drop the GUI wallet because we've got this new game coming out," that would be one thing.  But that isn't the case.



I think it's because rpietila is seen by some as a major figure in Monero to the extent that what he says or does has a big impact on the direction of XMR. Whether or not that is technically true is irrelevant, providing that people look to rpietila for a sense of what the future holds. If I'm honest, the first time I heard about the game my initial reaction was to sell and to abandon ship, simply because it just sounds like a joke - if nothing else but for the simple reason that it's not going to have any effect on the price, nor is it useful in expanding XMR's userbase. I got into XMR because it was marketted as a serious enterprise that would deliver a credible anonymous coin with the ability to shift 6 or 7 figure USD volumes. I still believe this will ultimately be the case. But when everyone's talking about the 'game' being a major thing for XMR - I'm like, okay well that's fine, but at the same time not the type of ball park I was expecting. Perhaps if just as much energy was put into winning BTC-e I'd be more optimistic.
unfortunately, i have to agree here. Moneros main reason to exist is to transfer money anonymously. How this game could help grow serious userbase that wants to use xmr as a way to transfer money, because they need or want the anonymity for what they do, is beyond me. it feels like a waste of energy in times where support seems to be so low and userbase is shrinking. I am sorry to say, but we do not need the people that hold 5 xmr somewhere as an in-game currency. we need serious people that want to transfer money anon, for whatever reasons there might be. Maybe its just me that got i wrong. I thought our main targted usecases would be hiding money, useing anon currency to buy illegal stuff and kick the contoll freaks in the ass.

Maybe that is your goal, mine is different.
I'd like it to be used for just about everything that money is used for.

If you get your way, then everyone using it gets charged with racketeering under the RICO act and as soon as someone learns you have any, you're busted.

The game is not all that big of a deal, its just one of the next things coming, but you should recognize that you need this game far more than you think you do.  You are thinking too small.
1136  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: October 16, 2014, 08:58:23 PM
Given the healthcare worker's recent exposure to Duncan, she was "self-monitoring" for any symptoms of Ebola and—according to the CDC—should not have traveled on a commercial airline until the incubation period for the disease had ended.

She should be charged with attempted murder, IMO.   Undecided
Good thing you aren't a DA.
She could get charged with a lessor, reckless endangerment, but would easily get off on an "advice of counsel" defense.
You'd do better with a civil suit vs the CDC, but if things go sour, you might not get the best medical care.
The medical profession gets to choose who dies, its been federalized under Affordable Care Act.
Most governments on the planet now have been empowered to decide when their citizens die.
This makes old age and social welfare problems more manageable, since they get to handle both when you die, and only have to pay you up until you do.
1137  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: October 16, 2014, 05:58:11 PM
Nurse Amber Vinson traveled with a commercial jet after caring for Ebola patient Thomas Eric Duncan,
on Frontier Airlines flight 1143 Cleveland to Dallas/Fort Worth. She is ill and was confirmed to have Ebola.
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/15/health/texas-ebola-outbreak/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
And she apparently did so with the CDC's explicit permission.

Quote from: cbs
according to Flighttracker, the plane was used for five additional flights on Tuesday before it was removed from service. Those flights include a return flight to Cleveland, Cleveland to Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood International Airport (FLL), FLL to Cleveland, Cleveland to Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL), and ATL to Cleveland.
While in Ohio, Vinson visited relatives, who are employees at Kent State University.  The university is now asking Vinson’s three relatives stay off campus and self-monitor per CDC protocol for the next 21 days out of an “abundance of caution.”
http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2014/10/15/ebola-patient-traveled-day-before-diagnosis

Quoting from Arstechnica article:

Update: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now say that the second infected healthcare worker flew to Cleveland and back on a commercial jet after caring for Duncan—and her return flight to Dallas took place the day before her Ebola symptoms appeared. The CDC now wants to interview everyone on that return flight (Frontier Airlines flight 1143, flying from Cleveland to Dallas/Fort Worth on October 13).

Given the healthcare worker's recent exposure to Duncan, she was "self-monitoring" for any symptoms of Ebola and—according to the CDC—should not have traveled on a commercial airline until the incubation period for the disease had ended.

Update 2: Reuters reports that the healthcare worker did in fact have a slight fever while traveling on the airplane back to Dallas. The CDC still believes the risk of viral transmission is low because the woman was neither vomiting nor bleeding on the flight. The healthcare worker is being transported to Emory Hospital in Atlanta for treatment.

http://nypost.com/2014/10/15/cdc-says-2nd-nurse-with-ebola-was-cleared-to-fly/

There may be more than one person at the CDC with different opinions.
Quote from: NYPost
"CDC spokesman David Daigle says Amber Joy Vinson spoke with the CDC official responsible for monitoring her health before she boarded the flight Monday.
Daigle says the 29-year-old Vinson reported her temperature was below 100.4 degrees and she had no symptoms. Ebola sufferers aren’t contagious until they show symptoms.
The official said she could board Frontier Airlines Flight 1143."

Interestingly both can be true.  She may have received permission, having no severe symptoms.
She may also have developed symptoms during transit, and CDC would then say that she should not have flown (even though they told her that she could.)

We also know that one can be contagious without symptoms.  If the virus is replicating in your blood vessels, and you are cut or menstruating or whatever, there is potential for transmission.
1138  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: October 16, 2014, 05:56:35 PM
A strong argument against a conspiracy is that this outbreak helps no one except the virus.
Not precisely true.
There has been a significant shift of government budgets.

When people are afraid, they often run to government for help.  Few are willing to attempt to protect themselves and want someone else to "do something".
Those from whom you seek help, you also empower.

It doesn't take a conspiracy for this effect, it can simply be the confluence of interests at play.
1139  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Buying on Silk Road on: October 16, 2014, 01:26:46 PM
I bet you'd find good opportunities to do that in localbitcoins as well. Why do you need to go to SR?

It doesn't matter to me what website, I'm just trying to exchange a large quantity (so far I've only found buy offers for small amounts on localbitcoins)

If you are following all the local laws regarding taxes and money laundering, then the exchange is not illegal.
The other concern you may consider, is that if you know that the folks with whom you are dealing are committing crimes, you could be charged with criminal conspiracy.  The more likely charge would be one of money laundering.  The particulars matter, and are different in different states.

This can happen no matter which website you are using.  Famously it happened with LocalBitcoins.com in Florida early this year.  Cases are still pending as of this writing.
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-foundation-urges-court-dismiss-charge-florida-localbitcoins-case/
1140  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(Town) on: October 16, 2014, 01:12:14 PM
Well lets wait and watch what the game will be like but I kind of don't like the idea that you won't be able to withdraw whatever you make within the game even if its in the form of Cryptocurrencies. Does seem to be a very good idea though.

If there's a will, there's a way.

"Pssst...  I need some CKgold to get my caviar, can you spot me some?"
"No, but if some XMR shows up at this address in the next 5 minutes, I might have what you want."
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