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1281  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 02, 2014, 12:25:35 PM
Those time stamps are there for other reasons that may someday in the future be useful (like contract enforcements, or marking an anniversary, or something)  It does not have any affect on the algorithms that govern the block chain.

Are you stating that timestamps aren't used to calculate the difficulty? Are you stating there are no possible manipulations of the difficulty via timestamps that could be exploited? If yes, where I can read the analysis?

Correct.

I went down this path a good while back myself.  I even pestered a couple of the devs for a minute to confirm my assessment in the code.
If there is a record of that part, it would be in the IRC log, it was only a few lines.  I didn't want to waste much of their time with it as it is only a matter of perception and not a technical problem needing to be fixed.

I wrote a few words about it yesterday.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789978.msg9039996#msg9039996

If anything, that BCX pointed to it as meaningful, is less evidence of an attack, not more.
Quote from: Sun Tzu, The Art of War
“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.” 
1282  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 02, 2014, 12:18:26 PM
NewLiberty why are we talking past each other? It seems you are not listening to what I am saying. I don't like hubris when we are dealing with a proven coin killer. Asserting that something only happens once per hour, when in fact the calcuation is once every 3 months, is a form of hubris and premature confidence.

I like facts. I was calling BS on that factoid.

That it is irrelevant is further reason to not use as hubris as was done (not by you, but I didn't see you interjecting).

We agree on the math.  I've been asleep for the last couple hours so came in on the end of this (but after I'd already mentioned it was not a useful line of inquiry).

But the argument isn't meaningful.  Those time stamps are there for other reasons that may someday in the future be useful (like contract enforcements, or marking an anniversary, or something)  It does not have any affect on the algorithms that govern the block chain.
1283  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 02, 2014, 12:12:14 PM
You went above and beyond the call to debunk the Concern Trolling
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=concern+troll

I also tried to explain why this isn't important a few times myself, but seems they got carried away over the argument about the math to research the unnecessary concern.

Upthread an assertion that the 4 blocks in 1 minute event would occur ever hour was implied to mean "no evidence for" (and bring on the ridicule of BCX and premature celebrations of victory) and it was not admitted that it was "no evidence for nor against" (inconclusive).

I corrected the math to show there was indeed a rare event, but made no assertions of abnormality nor attack. My point in doing so was to point out that there is "no evidence for nor against" (inconclusive).

That is an extremely relevant concern. And I won the argument. Period. Until someone shows that they have a model that would signal an ongoing TW attack.

Edit: BCX pointed to that rare event implying it might indicate something is going on. But I don't think we can distinguish it from noise (i.e. BCX could be making vacuous points) due to the unreliability of the timestamps (and it is even alleged that network hashrate variance and propagation plays a role via orphan rate in the unreliability, although I'd want to quantify that before I made that assumption). One could try to write a script to do an exhaustive computation of all rarer events.

Edit#2: I know XMR people would like to see closure on this and want to say "if you haven't proven anything, then we don't have to prove anything either". Normally I would agree, but as I said BCX has met his word in the past and he did point me towards an anonymity issue and a dubious ring private key issue. That gives him some credibility. His use of vacuous points subtracts from his credibility, unless the full poker hand is considered.

You won the argument on the math.  I granted that in my initial post many hours ago.   But...
It isn't relevant, simply because it can't be relevant.   The time stamp of the miner's computer effects nothing because it isn't used for anything meaningful.  There isn't a security issue there.

Edit:  If anything BCX's commenting on it is evidence of "no attack" forthcoming.  Why bother with meaningless concern trolling if you have rocket launchers under your bed?   
1284  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 02, 2014, 12:08:16 PM
But I am not yet convinced that anyone has a model that can tell us there is no evidence of an attack.

"No evidence" (to me, at least) just means "no evidence". I also have no evidence that I have cancer, yet it is still possible that I have cancer, I just don't have evidence.

No evidence for nor against (no medical exam), is different than no evidence for (completed a medical exam). I am positing that we have the former in this case.

Programmers have these sort of very precise logic skills and demarcation of boundaries of logic (compartmentalization and orthogonality), otherwise bugs appear.

There isn't going to be any evidence of an attack in where you are looking (time stamps of various miners' blocks compared to each other) simply because it is the wrong type of examination.

Using rpeitila's example you won't find skin cancer from a liver biopsy.  Whether the carefully chosen example from the block chain is anomalous or not, is not going to help you.  It would not show what you are thinking it would show.  Please waste no more of your time on this?

This entire dialog on this line of inquiry probably has BCX shooting Stoli through nostrils with hilarity for all the time and emotion wasted on it.

What's more silly?
Even if the chosen example is very rare, and only occurs once a week, there have been a couple weeks of data from which to pull such an example since the initial threat.
1285  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 02, 2014, 11:47:42 AM
4 times in 1.5 hours. 3 months ago. Prob lots more times, not really interested in staring at it longer.


111083   2014-07-02 12:34:33 (3 months ago)   23745   6   5a7b9f85576f7fa233bf26136f4bb04c6d2b7f2fe45369d7ee898a7c8a67e312
111082   2014-07-02 12:34:23 (3 months ago)   332   1   206bfef0b9c4879cb86a79c55976bf858b1dac5e5ced2f5951e6307291762596
111081   2014-07-02 12:34:00 (3 months ago)   1052   2   600d7d9f0ce11927608ee8ab015d68d19213a8abfad57838793467312671f06e
111080   2014-07-02 12:34:00 (3 months ago)   2307   2   19afd9e24ed461a5d3df71a3a0542bb291973a4a35e9870b297902bc6491d52c

30 minutes

111054   2014-07-02 12:06:15 (3 months ago)   332   1   58c9694ae3c8c219f88f15b560ef7f863d7caec14aba0a85a5979691be168eb5
111053   2014-07-02 12:06:26 (3 months ago)   4542   2   96a032abc59270c680f35767445850ac84576f28c12b745e11712269164d7f81
111052   2014-07-02 12:05:59 (3 months ago)   332   1   83eb435ed4851b463515b574b707d65fa9310c65e8df3485cf947b4fd89eb8b1
111051   2014-07-02 12:05:36 (3 months ago)   23993   2   d2c8d8f54a725093addbe824269eb288c7a7355e62f26a13cd1313629a75d994

40 minutes

111013   2014-07-02 11:20:08 (3 months ago)   3002   2   582d9455918fed0285b742b6cda1413b43944d1ae2577f6ddec5f616bf13dc6b
111012   2014-07-02 11:19:48 (3 months ago)   332   1   5e0d1c38a911fcf9f7d3bde985a13b8f9cdb0e27df4553da2ff43c317206fb25
111011   2014-07-02 11:19:43 (3 months ago)   332   1   63c481e4eedad60e3b2526cee67ad35c284c0dd80fd931af53274feb81b78bc1
111010   2014-07-02 11:19:36 (3 months ago)   331   1   86886a411e5ee4886b6979a704ca5866369da1d803a0d33699e09859a1b8a8ea

ten minutes

110999   2014-07-02 11:10:34 (3 months ago)   331   1   66ce7489994b30c1128609c99340b91b6002f49018f7f97d9fbc42c8fe9ebbfd
110998   2014-07-02 11:10:03 (3 months ago)   2223   2   e6f39c9954ca256cb44138102b22bf60d3b67874f116789a879ac0c2aa82bc75
110997   2014-07-02 11:09:31 (3 months ago)   331   1   efba3ba1b70fda6dd7677f872aa1fa83345e9d8668ac702670f5be467049bcd4
110996   2014-07-02 11:09:39 (3 months ago)   5584   2   300c1b2934e60040d256556dd580610fb50640339d46d077005d906ea0b7b016

...

...

90000   2014-06-18 00:28:57 (4 months ago)   331   1   e7b31b49633084bae03c9b6e0ea592e3a9e7a86625d094f21ef9268d2020f83c
89999   2014-06-18 00:28:53 (4 months ago)   331   1   4edc506643a50cd79fe3c7117a2054b2661e05cd9b4e2071c1f6d5ac4e04281d
89998   2014-06-18 00:28:49 (4 months ago)   692   2   1aa0404dc484ccb9f7df07918203e26c44442a5fd3708e20534fae1909095379
89997   2014-06-18 00:28:32 (4 months ago)   13996   2   22f56466512b866b4eabed7d1d2cabcb71e1fcabb6b15a808a54f4fdfd5b3af3
89996   2014-06-18 00:28:21 (4 months ago)   18119   3   bb8a5303e7d8b36cfbb8864b25ef88f454c09b0c45a5a9c5c74f0e2ba5a6499f

Cheesy

Thank you.
More evidence of miners with inaccurate system clocks...

You went above and beyond the call to debunk the Concern Trolling
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=concern+troll

I also tried to explain why this isn't important a few times myself, but seems they got carried away over the argument about the math to research the unnecessary concern.
1286  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 02, 2014, 04:54:23 AM
However, your analogy is inapplicable. Do you know why?
Your math is right, but it doesn't answer any questions that need answering.
1287  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 02, 2014, 04:43:59 AM
...

At some point I am sure the XMR team will realize they do indeed need my help and we may work something out.

But anyway the image below posted by nutildah is interesting. Check the blocks just prior to the circle.

Later guys.


~BCX~




another 4 blocks in the last minute.

By my math, with 1 block per minute mean rate, one should see 4 blocks in the same minute about once every hour or so.  Is this correct?

I see 12 blocks in 4 minutes.

We apply the Poisson distribution.

The probability that we will get 4 blocks in 4 minutes when the expected rate is 1 block per minute (4 blocks per 4 minutes) is:

p = 44 / 4!e4 ≈ 19.5%, i.e. an occurrence expected roughly every 5 minutes.

The probability that we will get 12 blocks in 4 minutes when the expected rate is 1 block per minute (4 blocks per 4 minutes) is:

p = 412 / 12!e4 ≈ 0.064%, i.e. an occurrence expected roughly every 1559 minutes which is every 26 hours.

And note that the probably we get 10 - 14 blocks in 4 minutes is going to several times higher because we sum the probabilities for each of 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14, thus an occurrence expected several times per day.

I believe the math above is incorrect, because each 1 minute trial is independent (which is one of the requirements for a Poisson distribution). Thus we have four consecutive events, two are 4 blocks in a minute and two are 2 blocks in a minute. Thus the probability is as follows.

p = (14 / 4!e1)2 × (12 / 2!e1)2  ≈ 0.000795%, i.e. an occurrence expected roughly every 125,794 minutes which is every 87 days!

If my correction is correct, we do have evidence of something rarely occurring.

Thank you for undertaking this.

What we have in that sample is evidence that there are inaccurate clocks in some miners.  (This much is clear from a time stamp preceding a block it has hashed as the previous in the chain.)
Those time stamps come from the computers of the miners, they are not the times that blocks are received.
NTP (network time protocol, used for clock syncing on computers) is a UDP protocol, it is not reliable, and miners may not even use it.  It also has exploitable holes, MITM vulnerabilities and other issues.  So yes, it could be malice (to generate unjustified fear), it could also be laziness, carelessness or even miner caution or tuning (avoiding an unprofitable process).  What it isn't is evidence of an attack vector.  There is no significant damage resulting from this sort of activity.

I looked at this earlier and wrote a bit more about it up-thread, here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789978.msg9039996#msg9039996

If your curiosity compels you, it may be interesting to analyze this sample against the data set from the rest of the chain to more accurately assess how much of an anomaly it is (though it may not be worth the bother considering the negligible consequences), and so your calculations here, while accurate, start with this mistaken premise.
1288  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 02, 2014, 03:36:35 AM
Have the developers been able to account for the increased hashrate to be sure the increase isn't controlled by BCX?
If there were a way to do this, it would be a proof that the privacy of XMR were broken

Afaics conceptually, the decentralized checkpoints would not prevent BCX from stealing wallets if he had an attack on the private keys of the genre I was exploring upthread. If he can take over the chain from a checkpoint forward, the he can see transactions before they are added to the chain, thus if the private key could be cracked, he could double spend the transaction, discarding the original transaction and putting one on the block which pays to himself.
True, checkpoints do nothing against a raw anonymity exploit.
Also true that if private keys could be cracked, transactions could conceivable be crafted in an alternative chain to spend those, ...however the novel distributed checkpoint system could prevent the double spend on the alternative chain, since the miners would not honor that chain, because checkpoint.

Upthread we never showed a way to crack the private keys. All I showed was an idea of how to potentially identify which public key in the ring is the sender in some cases. And from that, I noted it makes some more simultaneous equations available for the private key. Whether those simultaneous equations can be solved faster than factoring a public key is not known to me. If someone knows, afaics they haven't told us in this thread.
Also very true

If it is difficult to speculate about BCX's motivations. It seems he is either bluffing to save his reputation, or perhaps he is attempting to instill some humility in the altcoin space. I dunno.

Perhaps he is waiting for someone to make an insight into the sort of attack that might be possible and fix it, so he would then say his attack was thwarted.

P.S. If I don't reply, it doesn't mean I am ignoring. I may have not come back to read yet.

Also agree with most of your apt distinction between crypto and fiat.  The law enforcers may have their own opinions but likely will do nothing unless someone really pushes them to do something AND they see some asset seizure potentials.

This all leaves us about where we started.  As yet, we have no evidence of a credible threat.

We do have the beginnings of a theoretical threat, but no complete theory, nor a tested theory and certainly no credible evidence.  It is like calling in a bomb threat, but not being able to describe what kind of a bomb it is, or where it might be hidden.   There's just not much to be done other than the constant vigilance of standard operating procedure until the theories can be worked through.
If BCX has done that, then we should look forward to BCXcoin in the not too distant future as eager miners/buyers.  That would be a win too, just an unexpected one
1289  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 01, 2014, 09:52:49 PM
thats the idea of a bet..one wins the other one looses..if he would have lost the bet he would be down 800BTC (using your 300BTC funding for the attack)

Risto's 500BTC would only finance the atack if BCX would win Roll Eyes so using your theory Risto knew BCX could/would win?

You are somewhat missing the point.   If Risto's interests are in the security and stability of XMR (aside from personal wealth, his reputation is on the line), there is negative benefit from taking the bet and creating an external incentive for attacking.

And...  which of us make 500BTC wagers on a hunch and a hope and no analysis against someone who has surprised us with that opportunity and presumably has had the opportunity for their own analysis?

So...  BCX certainly couldn't have expected it to be accepted under the conditions offered, but making it served to add gravity and bravado to the threat.

Therefore, you ought ignore the offer of the bet in your analysis, it is immaterial.
1290  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 01, 2014, 09:46:00 PM
So whats the deal with BCX? What has he said recently after nothing happened?  Roll Eyes

Looks like he's turning his attention to attacking DigitalCoin (DGC) now.

An easy target. Useless coin with no hashrate to speak of. Vanilla 51% after DDoSing a few pools would be enough for it.
Depending on the goals of BCX beyond Stoli on tap, that might be rational.
Once all coins implement the innovations XMR put in to reduce the fear of an attack from its users, the efficacy of TW attacks (and even merely fear of attack) diminishes.
Further I suspect that the XMR devs have additional buttressing in store in many areas, not just this one.  The coin gets more secure with each commit.

For those of us who fiat cost value invest at regular time intervals, and hold, this whole ordeal has been an unexpected gift.
A small one from BCX (bringing price down for buyers), and a big one from the XMR devs (further insuring the long term viability of XMR).
1291  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: October 01, 2014, 04:20:06 PM
Fever can kill? Learn something new everyday.
You forgot the operative word. HEMORRHAGIC fever. The incubation time for this disease can be around 20 days. It has already spread to different African countries by plane. It could easily already be all over the world and no one would even know it yet.
I predicted it would appear in other countries via plane travel, now it has reached the US under this vector.
This scientist also predicted that. A year and a half ago he was been making animated maps using airline routes as predictive models.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oY6fnOoRHHs

http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/

Here's his probabalistic map of city pair considering origin and destination,
http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/D3/ebola/

Using his algorithms, Texas has a <1% chance (0.002%) of being the hop off point for an infected ebola patient.
Texas would have better disease identification capabilities than most destinations, so if you agree with his premises, it may be reasonable to assume that ebola is also already elsewhere undetected.
1292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 01, 2014, 04:08:48 PM
WTF?  these guys are simply out of hand:

U.S. Law Enforcement Seeks to Halt Apple-Google Encryption of Mobile Data

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-30/u-s-seeks-to-reverse-apple-android-data-locking-decision.html

Quote
“What concerns me about this is companies marketing something expressly to allow people to place themselves beyond the law,” Comey said.

Roll Eyes

They are marketing it as a privacy feature.  If seeking privacy means you are going "beyond the law", maybe decades of law enforcement overreaching and seeking extensions of the laws into our personal lives is the problem.

Besides, if they take it away from the default install they will only remove if from the average consumer who isn't breaking laws.  The criminals will root their phones and use encryption anyway.  They can't stop this unless they make rooting illegal, and even that will only slow it down slightly.  If it comes to that, I'm fucking out of here.  I won't live in a country where it is illegal to own a general purpose computer that can run software that doesn't have the approval of government and corporate overlords.

This is less paternalism, and more, I don't know, 14yr old insecure girl syndrome.  "What are they saying?  Are they talking about me?"
This government has gone nuts.  Next they will outlaw envelopes.
1293  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 01, 2014, 12:20:40 PM
I would love to see XMR added to BTC-e.

Looks like it may get on Cryptsy first
https://www.cryptsy.com/coinvotes

It's been up for vote for almost a day and it is up to 4th with 8561 as of this moment.

I don't care about cryptsy, we need XMR/USD and XMR/EUR pair at BTC-e Wink
That will be HUGE

A XMR/BTC pair so start with would already be huge. I think BTC-e is very interested in the anonymity Monero provides. Don't we have some russian speaking members? Tongue

Are we ready for HUGE?
1294  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Cryptocurrency with the best distribution? on: October 01, 2014, 11:48:05 AM
"Give me control of a nation's money, and I care not who makes its laws."
We work to reverse this.
Hence the contrapositive:

"So that we may be careful in making laws, decentralize control of the world's money, to all its people."
1295  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 01, 2014, 10:23:49 AM
math

Hopefully you're feeling better if you're back on here. Smiley
Any thoughts on BCX's claim that an attack is in progress and might take up to 22 days to materialize?

So far, I have not seen, nor am I aware that anyone else has seen, any evidence of an attack in progress, and also no specific unaddressed vulnerability to an attack beyond DDoS (which as we all know is mitigated through decentralization).

The image a couple posts above has been analyzed for probabilistic distribution of timestamps... but remember, the in-chain timestamps of that nature wouldn't offer a definitive display of attack capability in this form anyway.  These times are set by the miner that mines the block, and may not be accurate.  They are not required by the protocol to be accurate for good reasons.  

It is even normal to have blocks times stamped out of order in which they are hashed or received (as is the case in the snapshot sample shown where 235645 is stamped a second after 235656).1  This can happen for many reasons.  NTP failures are common.  It can also be intentionally set incorrectly, but there is no ill effect from this other than that it can confuse some people.  Those times are indicative only.

It would be a different matter entirely if a great number of freshly hashed blocks in a chain were received in rapid succession.  This is no where evidenced in the XMR block chain to date, and nothing else has been offered by way of evidence of a credible threat.


1 This may be what BCX was pointing to with the sentence: "Check the blocks just prior to the circle."  Do not be confused into fear, by lack of knowledge.  There is no evidence of wrongdoing in this chain sample.
1296  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 01, 2014, 09:20:18 AM
I would love to see XMR added to BTC-e.

Looks like it may get on Cryptsy first
https://www.cryptsy.com/coinvotes

It's been up for vote for almost a day and it is up to 4th with 8561 as of this moment.
1297  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency (mandatory upgrade) on: October 01, 2014, 04:20:13 AM

I believe BCX wanted some sort of "orced evolution.



Zoidberg and windjc tried to force BBR into an orced evolution, with a massively unpopular name change to "Rune."

It was a huge fail, thank God.

Hahaha! Indeed, thank you fine sir, this made my night after not looking at the tail of this thread for a day or two! Bravo!!

Well, at least it wasn't a troll

1298  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 01, 2014, 04:09:35 AM
WTF?  these guys are simply out of hand:

U.S. Law Enforcement Seeks to Halt Apple-Google Encryption of Mobile Data

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-30/u-s-seeks-to-reverse-apple-android-data-locking-decision.html

Quote from: article
“This is a very bad idea,” said Cathy Lanier, chief of the Washington Metropolitan Police Department, in an interview. Smartphone communication is “going to be the preferred method of the pedophile and the criminal. We are going to lose a lot of investigative opportunities.”

Every single one of you is a pedophile or terrorist until proven innocent. Don't you care about the children.


i'm sure Apple, Google and many other tech companies are noticing purchasers are avoiding US products these days and instead doing their buying overseas.  all b/c of gvt intrusive policies.

https://www.blackphone.ch/
1299  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Monero Economy Workgroup - Now open for registration on: October 01, 2014, 03:57:43 AM
(Speaking as an MEW member.)

Agree with NewLiberty's post. I'm not sure about this whole multinational use case (not saying it isn't valid, just that it all seems a bit speculative) but his analysis on the other items is spot on.

Note that #1 in particular is more about defining an "industry standard" and much less about coding. The MEW or a working group appointed by MEW can handle this item completely as long as the developers have some input on the final proposal to be adopted to ensure no feasibility problems. Also somewhat true of #3.

It is less speculative than you might think.  I was asked by a service provider for multinationals to investigate the potential for solving that use case.  Monero is the current front runner.  It is a significant factor as to why I am involved in Monero at all.  The need is real.  The current workaround is buying an in-country bank, which is expensive and comes with its own set of problems.

Intrest may not be speculative at all. Whether it catches on and remains the front runner is highly speculative IMO. That shouldn't be meant as discouragement or even skepticism, it isn't meant that way. Personally I hope we do find even one credible and scalable use beyond speculation better than Bitcoin has.

This would do it.  But XMR is way to immature yet.  It has to prove itself with smaller fishes first.  Bitcoin can't do it, XMR could, if it survives, and grows up.  There are a lot of steps between here and there.

Anyhow, I don't have enough input yet on my proposal to bring it to a vote, much less the 10% votepower needed for that anyway, so I'm hoping to keep that discussion going further.

What does the current total votepower stand at now?
1300  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 01, 2014, 03:18:07 AM
i don't care so much who posts what here as WHAT itself is posted.

This may be an imperfect strategy. 
In communications, considering also the source and context may provide information beyond just the text posted.

rpietila has admitted to being and altcoin noob, (even though you don't believe that) so we might expect that he is likely not accustomed to the Alt section of the forum, in the same way that you are.
So it is understandable for me, your reaction to his posts.  Also understandable to me, is his perspective.
Text, and also the source and context may matter.

In every disagreement there is an opportunity to learn, both about the world, and about ourselves.
This is what makes the fight worth the bruises.
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