Here is something I was pondering recently:
Let's say that in 10 years bitcoin would be very valuable and the WO long term members would age and would be at or contemplating either retirement or inheritance problems.
In my opinion, we should start preparing our next of kin on how to deal with forms of wealth, like bitcoin, with which most financial advisors are unfamiliar with.
M. Saylor makes an analogy between bitcoin and Manhattan's real estate.
What I am getting to is this: it seems silly to 'allow' your inheritors to convert inherited bitcoin to cash knowing that bitcoin is likely to be more valuable in the future.
Once the family 'loses' bitcoin, it is unlikely that they ever get it back.
Therefore, family education on bitcoin properties and understanding it's value will be very important going forward.
Additionally, there are two very well funded companies employing brilliant scientists (best money can fund) tasked with working on the "problem" of aging.
Apart from the "simple" life extension, Hal Finney, btw, flash-froze his body (or maybe just head, it is a bit cheaper).
Who knows, he might be coming back in 100-200 years.
While doing inheritance, maybe some ought to consider making similar arrangements and then have the legal mechanism in place to resume ownership (of at least part of the funds) if some re-animation would be possible in the future.
I think if you really consider to get your ass frozen and revived in the future, you will be kindy born again, but without personality. There is biochemistry involved, and afaik the process is stopped when you get frozen. So, there's Hal, revived, with cottage cheese in his mind, to a yet unknown extent. I am not sure if i would want that to happen to me. For me, YOLO is not only the motto of a questionable generation of growing-ups, but it's something i consider as literally true. Apart from that, i do and will teach my children that BTC is not the kind of investment it is usually compared to in the world of normal people. A way to independence. I will ask them each if they would sell their independence for money at some point in the future. Good thoughts you started there in my mind with this posting. |
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I also keep working on trying to capture that Comet a.k.a. C/2022 E3 (ZTF), but since it moves in front of the stars, it will be hard to track, not even thinking about conditions (new moon, but clouds and fog everywhere over the place), having to capture this beast shortly before dawn.  Still hoping for better conditions... Wow!! Sounds like you are going to need to readjust your HODL sleepie sleep schedule.  It's like doing shift work perhaps? Every day, set your alarm for 1 hour before dawn in order to get up and to verify for ur lil selfie whether there are clouds in the relevant area (whatever that might mean?) of the sky or not.. maybe you could train a bot for pre-dawn cloud checking? Ultimately, it seems the question would be if clouds present, go back to HODL sleepie sleep, and if no clouds, then get the fuck up so you can generate some nice and original (never before captured) pics for dee wall observer peeps. Gee, Jay... We're in the 21st century already  See, dee app(s) on my smartyphoney thingy are going to tell me in advance how dense the clouds will be (low, med and high altitude separately). The setup i try to realize for this comet involves a raspberry Pi3 controlling the scope, the planetarium software on my computer will keep track of the comet and the capture software will control the camera. All i have to do is to set it alll up before i go to sleep, and take off the dew cover at 3am, which i will have to set an alarm clock for, and then i will go back to sleep. It's just a matter of testing the setup and tracking, since it involves three pieces of new, complicated software to master. The setup i'm using currently isn't capable of tracking comets. It's planetarium, control and shooting software all on a more powerful Raspberry Pi4, which i access via a remote desktop protocol. I could use this setup and track on the comet optically, without the planetarium delivering realtime positioning data, which would be my fallback method. The bad luck, in my case, is that there aren't any comets bright enough to test with the one suitable telescope i have. I could even shoot the comet earlier at night, but the image data would be suboptimal through light pollution, mainly. As an Astrophotographer, you want to get things right as much as possible. You don't want to set up things for an hour in the freezing cold and all you get is a lousy picture after hours of collecting and processing the data. When i grew up in an age of low light pollution, in a place far from cities, i could not resist the charming magic of the starry skies until today. Combine this with a special interest affine personality and astrophotography is the ideal hobby, after you got too old for hacking computers and playing games like Counter Strike through (at least) the first half of every night  The price was $2000 lower 24 hours ago... Can’t believe we were at $16,xxx last month. I bought a handful in that range but sat on a pile of fiat waiting for lower. Feel like a bit of a moron now but it is what it is. I have enough bitcoin, was being greedy but greed is good sometimes  IIRC, didn't you unload at about $65k and got it all in at $16-$20k again? You can still buy little by little on the early up. You know the game My not so great understanding is that he sold around 25% of his stash at around $50k-ish, and then he bought the vast majority plus a little back between $16k and $24k-ish... and he held out a decent amount of his cash to be prepared to buy lower.. maybe 25% held back, which still could be a lot of dry powder to be holding? I might be bastardizing this a bit, and so what? we are largely talking in hypotheticals about "friends" that we know anyhow, no? My friend does not believe in selling large portions of his/her BTC, but hey different strokes for different folks, and there surely are decently valid reasons to shave off some BTC when the price goes up sufficiently, especially when any of us is significantly in profits and we are also prepared to be wrong in case the BTC price does not end up correcting sufficiently below the point that we sold in order that we can buy back. Triple-yep, Jay. I almost knew my memories were blurred out already, but LFC shed a light on it earlier, too. I don't think i'm always universally right in my thinkenings and believings. Again, i won't mention eXPHorizon as (counter) example here |
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The last "final capitulation" move was really obvious and easy to observe. Several OG WO's did mark the bottom after that. You can be fooled the most by your own eyes and mind. I won't name eXPHorizon as an extreme example for proof of this thesis  Not that it has much relevance to current price above >$20K, but to be honest that "final capitulation" wasn't obvious to me what so ever. Once price had broken down to new lows I had very low confidence that the final low had been made until price got back above previous support around $19K. I'm not complaining I wasn't a buyer around $16K though, as buying +20% higher seems reasonable to me, especially now that price is up 20% from then and it still beats a DCA price from last June of $19.5K, or from May when price initially broke down from $30K which would be $20.9K, etc. Obviously it's easy to look back and realise it was FTX-based panic selling style capitulation, but from a price-action perspective the chart looked bearish at the time and $10K to $14K looked increasingly likely once $17.5K had broken. For example if there wasn't that final capitulation, and price moved sideways between $19K and $21K until current break-out, I'm sure many would say that the low being in was obvious as well, because price had consolidated at the lows for 6+ months. My point is hindsight is great, but without hedge fund liquidations price could have even held $30K last year by the looks of it, as it had done so for 18 months already, and instead moved sideways for 6 months from there (to complete two years of consolidation) before returning to the upside. Maybe i was looking too simple at things, but i don't do well in processing a lot of information. Nevertheless, in a 4-year cycle manner, last ATH(s) were too early, last capitulation was in the mid of may 2018, so it felt about time that any major capitulation move, followed by strong "bitcoin is dead" sentiments, Saylor and Bukele no more buying... All of this (and more) fit together in my point of view. Thus, "unbreakable" support over $15k seemed reasonable enough for me to mark the bottom. I don't want to sound overly critical, regarding your way of looking at the market, but $10k, for example would have been way too big of a retrace then the globally expected 80% down, which also supported my feelings about bottom regards. As you said, buying at $20k wasn't too bad either. I was out of free money for a while, which set back my buying plans a little, but i'm still satisfied. At next ATH we will have forgotten our debate about this, anyway ChatGPT struggling to predict BTC next ATH.
Yesterday, i read that ChatGPT is from Microsoft, so i don't wonder too much that it can't predict this. It can, however, gather, connect and combine a lot of information and also express it quite well. Kudos for that. EDIT: Just checked back on OpenAI history, and in fact it's not "from Microsoft" at all, besides that $1bn investment back in 2019. |
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If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K". I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.
My guess is $29,900 will become the new $9,900. It'll go sideways for what seems like forever, teasing > $30k only to get squashed down over again and again. But it'll still be a good thing, because On Like Donkey Kong. Hmm, we're already at $23k. I'm really curious if, when and at which price-range "the battle" will play out, it might give a good hint ot two about where we will be heading in 2024/25. ...
The last "final capitulation" move was really obvious and easy to observe. Several OG WO's did mark the bottom after that. You can be fooled the most by your own eyes and mind. I won't name eXPHorizon as an extreme example for proof of this thesis EDIT: Well, you also know King Daddy could make me look like a clown by sending us to $10k tomorrow...  |
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If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K". I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.
It might be totally different this time, though. I occasionally try to think about what we haven't seen (yet) and which one of those possible scenarios will be playing out. Last bottom was $4k-ish, this one $16k-ish, so interpolating the $10k battle based on these numbers, $40k seems valid as rough estimate. BUT we don't go up in a linear way, the 3rd bottom, seen in reverse timeline from now, was more or less ar $300. x12, x4, x would translate roughly into about x1.5 for the next "multiplier", which projects a "battle for $25k" IF things continue as they turned in the past. S-curve would be the no1 exception, bringing us to at least $250k next cylcle ATH areas, no or very short "battle for (roughly) $70k" (you know that number), followed by a yet unseen, consistent run up. And that would be only the beginning, since we would have just passed the flattest part of the S-curve in the last few years. #NFA #NFE #iactuallysuckatmathstoo The price was $2000 lower 24 hours ago... Can’t believe we were at $16,xxx last month. I bought a handful in that range but sat on a pile of fiat waiting for lower. Feel like a bit of a moron now but it is what it is. I have enough bitcoin, was being greedy but greed is good sometimes IIRC, didn't you unload at about $65k and got it all in at $16-$20k again? You can still buy little by little on the early up. You know the game |
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Phew, Buddy got brave, finally. Or... hopefully, so he won't return to the dark side of the charts again The first time in a while the price went up after i added some sats for useless cash. thumbs up, buddy. OT: As some of you might remember, i bought a cooled astro camera a while back, to replace my bugged, noisy DSLR. Without a clear, moonless night ever since, i put equipment and data editing to the test with an image of a rather bright nebula. The beloved and also hated NGC 2244, mostly hated for complicated mix of wavelenghts. You can also see the green cast of the smaller stars in the center area, which proves how much i still suck at editing. However, getting this object captured in a very clear sky (for longer times) would have helped a lot.  click for larger (still downsized) version. I also keep working on trying to capture that Comet a.k.a. C/2022 E3 (ZTF), but since it moves in front of the stars, it will be hard to track, not even thinking about conditions (new moon, but clouds and fog everywhere over the place), having to capture this beast shortly before dawn. Still hoping for better conditions... EDIT: Biggest advantage of the cooled CCD vs. DSLR camera is much lower (read) noise, revealing much more detail in the darker areas, which would drown in noise and/or get truncated via "black point clipping". The total exposure time for this image was (only) 140 minutes, of which 95 minutes were kept for stacking, the other ones have been sorted out because of thin clouds, occasional vibrations of the scope, both blurring the stars too much. One was also removed because of an aeroplane crossing. On the positive side, there are close to zero satellites visible in winter, because they don't reflect sunlight, as the sunlight doesn't hit them at the higher angled "path" at night (while it's angle is much lower at daytime). In Summer i often had to sort out half of the pics because of satellite streaks, mostly Starlink's (Fuck you, Elon btw!). So, where was i? Alright, i am pretty surprised in a positive way by the final image quality in terms of detail and noise, especially at these low 95 minutes of medium gain exposure at suboptimal conditions. Expect some more, even better pics in the future. EDIT 2: in the meantime i learned more about colormetry and spectral layers and applied some new edits, so i uploaded and updated the picture. |
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EVERYTHING IS TEMPORARY AND EVERYTHING WILL SLIDE BUUUUUTT LOVE, LOVE IS FOREVER. Love never dies
FUCKING IDIOT THE NOW IS ETERNAL, YES LOVE IS NOT, SORRY #infinityhaiku What an Imbecile... what is required that Humanity reaches new hights ? 😉 i bet you will say Beetkojn.. but its not its something else . Nope. It's experiencing the NOW through meditation and thus abandoning the self-identification with the EGO. I omit who's the real Imbecile here End of lecture. Like it or leave it. |
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EVERYTHING IS TEMPORARY AND EVERYTHING WILL SLIDE BUUUUUTT LOVE, LOVE IS FOREVER. Love never dies
FUCKING IDIOT THE NOW IS ETERNAL, YES LOVE IS NOT, SORRY #infinityhaiku |
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While doing a tiny bit of wallet maintenance today I discovered something strange I did a little digging and some searching and I found that disgraced user naim027 had a short stint running a lending service; the repayment address was: 18HfvLNNsZdMZeXmyKg59AfG7n4d1ibKRU (as posted here) which on 9/14/2022 @ 12:24:14 transferred a small amount of bitcoin to this address: bc1qw0qsvzuxgmyqvc6mcaqw77v3sd9jt0lppcxkn6 which on 9/23/2022 @ 24:14:25 transferred most of that amount to this adress: bc1qy4ta9wtwufm3d56tqrys3wh50q7fmd7p0g0z6n which on 9/23/2022 @ 24:28:50 dispersed ~0.00005 BTC to each of the following users at their publicly posted addresses - fillippone: bc1qd7rqlrw5h4q3g2x45xacd72zshcm2dht2ztclh
Chartbuddy: 1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
Gachapin: 1L1KknC9sGqr6CUuZzEME3V8YPSfLqLRoM
Ivonm: 38s6Ku7BMThahWcSQQLwnM9K1U5GWF5Rkk
JayJuanGee: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA
OutOfMemory: bc1qhy8gjn9klgmtlx08a2cpruq9dkv0tvqhv5x5lk
OgNasty: 168WXhArv7Fasqvi2xm5MQMfLhG18jifMe
Richy_T: 1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
El duderino_: 19X5vZE8KGZ6YgtSkJmZEryDgX24tg6amR
xhomerx10: 1RoMaNiAjSGeGsYJzPjsLUGogbDEsK4TZ I'm not sure what naim027 is up to nor would I trust any answer from him but I did not request his dust. This dust can be used to track future transactions and potentially deanonymize you. It's probably a good idea to freeze the UTXO associated with this tx to make sure it never gets spent. Hopefully the rest of you either caught it already or have not yet transacted using that UTXO. +10 WOsMerit  You'll get PM in a minute.
Second: why do people on this forum now apparently only want to damage other fellow users? I though we were fam.
Some are like fam. When you throw a big party, you always have to consider crashers and shady characters to show up later. |
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Your fee is too low for current mempool state
The situation with mempool doesn't look that bad, there are currently only about 9000 unconfirmed transactions and with a few quick blocks that will clear up. 2.4 sat/byte is currently somewhere in the zone between No priority and Low priority but not so far that it won't be confirmed in the next few hours. https://mempool.space/Finally it got confirmed. I looked up the purchase history and the 2nd most recent transaction had a tad over 22 sat/bytes. Maybe a temporary flaw at the broker. In the block explorer 2.4sat/byte is tagged as "optimal". It was just unusual for me to wait that long for a confirmation of a transaction by this particular source of BTC. Thanks for information |
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Hm, my transaction from broker to wallet (2.4 sat/byte) is still unconfirmed after one hour  Not that i worry, but this is the first time i didn't receive at least one confirmation within at least 30 minutes... Mining WO's, is there something up that i missed? |
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RSI starting to looking more like 2019, so yep Looks like this was the bottom, ladies and gentlemen. Nocoiners prolly will refuse to buy at next ATH -80%, too. Why not? YOLO, instead of throwing money at an internet money scam  hodl, hold, hodl! time to get me some nice sleep. sorry, nocoiners. #prematureHaiku |
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Lump-Sum-bought the local top Feels Badass |
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If Bitcoin does not see a recovery to at least $25,000 this year I will eat my fucking hat. The new year looks promising at least but proudhon has got rather excited that his nit picked chart shows bitcoin back in decline...
Dude, you're wearing a hat while making love? #scnr EDIT: How do i get that Burt Reynolds / Dolly Parton scene out of my head now? |
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holy crap my short isnt looking so good  There is no chance this holds. so i should double down then. good plan A little less cocky about the guaranteed "down before up," no? We've heard that "down before up" one a million-ish times in these parts, and it is guaranteed, until it is not... which can be an issue... and sometimes contributes towards everlasting psychological damage to those who continue to tell us that it is going back down.. Jonoiv is not the only cocky-ass disappeared member with that issue. I think that he is still waiting for sub-$2k because he was too greedy and too smart to buy back in when the price went to sub $4k in March 2020. that will never happen to me. i did double down btw Mindset like yours cannot be helped! Good luck with your shorting/daytrading... The price will go down once you get liquidated and it will make you feel like you were so almost there! it's like a drug, you will try again and again until you are left with nothing! This is like you learn to play poker. First stage, you lose all your chips in the many ways of this game. Then you either quit, or you actually keep learning the few ways how to build and hodl your stack. Some even get caught in the slot machine alley before they can even see the tables, though |
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Wow. Absolutely no respect for the dead. I bet they did not even research this man. They needed to make a list for their shit article so they decided to pad the story with some home-made BS. If they made a real list the only name on it would be Craig Wright. Yeah, and that indian guy from the UK who gave an "interview" a few years ago (just to promote his upcoming "better bitcoin" in the end). this guy$BTC going up a bit, OOM happy because his monthly DCA plan started in early January |
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Interesting...I can think of other uses... (oh jeezus... I'm watching too much porn...)
Hah, I wanted one to use as a bed like in a movie I saw as a kid when I was young, think is was a Rutger Hauer flick Bounty hunter or some such thing. I did bang a chick on her dads pool table when I was a kid and still have the scars on my knees, I don't recommend it. *Left with her frantically trying to scrubbing off the smoogeI have a buddy that broke his dads pool table banging a one night stand. Wait... Which weight class are we speaking about here? EDIT: 5 CB Posts in a row. Bullrun can start, hoooray! or not, like last time... |
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Thanks, noted for my watchlist. I will start researching and maybe have a chance to capture this little spacefrog. @Bob,
For anything it may still be worth, I want to publicly apologize for being incredibly insensitive towards you years ago. I was emotional and reacted with some comments I deeply regret. I'd like you to know that I'm sorry to have judged and labeled you. I used sensitive information you confided in us and weaponized it in my haste. I see how hurtful this was. It still hangs on me and I think about it more often than I'd like to admit. Rather than continue to personally carry this into the future I'd much prefer owning it and working towards a sense of peace.
You are valuable and have mattered to all of us here. Wishing you and Rick all the best into the future!
Sincerely,
Icy
That's the spirit. Right there. Dude, you really need to go get laid or something.
There's the spirit, again Guys for the love of Bitcoin, stop meriting the merit farmers and stop replying to the trolls. If we keep fueling their toxic posting motivation, they will come back in larger numbers.
Trolls become scrolls. Ignore button is a convenient scrollwheel-saver, isn't it? |
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But there needs to be an error margin: will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).
I disagree. It's pretty counterintelligent to allow forseeable mistakes. Still, "we" do this more often than not. In general that's likely. But I would be very careful not to make absolute assertions. Again, making mistakes (even knowingly) can lead to very positive outcomes or very important learning motivations. And when I say knowingly... sometimes we just think we "know" something is a foreseeable mistake, but we might just be wrong about it and in reality it's no mistake. Just an example: many years ago I was 100% sure that not selling my Bitcoin after making the first 5x or 10x was absolutely a mistake. Today I think it was one of the best decisions in my life. Where would I be now without making that "mistake"... I would say making mistakes (even knowingly) from time to time might be part of a kind of natural intelligence, or maybe you could call irrational or non linear intelligence of natural evolution. Like a mutation that brings novelty in the world of living beings. Glad that i have read this before shutting the computer down. If you think it was the best decision of your life, it's not a mistake. Your only mistake was thinking it was a mistake (for some years). A bigger mistake would have been to sell in doubt at a later time, imo. gn |
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But there needs to be an error margin: will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).
I disagree. It's pretty counterintelligent to allow forseeable mistakes. Still, "we" do this more often than not. EDIT: off for today, a shitty day. There goes some of the Gin i have saved for emergencies. DCA'd some sats today, though. #HODL |
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