Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

But there needs to be an error margin:  will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).
  

I disagree. It's pretty counterintelligent to allow forseeable mistakes. Still, "we" do this more often than not.

In general that's likely. But I would be very careful not to make absolute assertions. Again, making mistakes (even knowingly) can lead to very positive outcomes or very important learning motivations.

And when I say knowingly... sometimes we just think we "know" something is a foreseeable mistake, but we might just be wrong about it and in reality it's no mistake.

Just an example:
many years ago I was 100% sure that not selling my Bitcoin after making the first 5x or 10x was absolutely a mistake.  
Today I think it was one of the best decisions in my life.  Where would I be now without making that "mistake"...

I would say making mistakes (even knowingly) from time to time might be part of a kind of natural intelligence, or maybe you could call irrational or non linear intelligence of natural evolution. Like a mutation that brings novelty in the world of living beings.

Glad that i have read this before shutting the computer down.

If you think it was the best decision of your life, it's not a mistake.
Your only mistake was thinking it was a mistake (for some years).
A bigger mistake would have been to sell in doubt at a later time, imo.

gn

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

But there needs to be an error margin:  will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).
  

I disagree. It's pretty counterintelligent to allow forseeable mistakes. Still, "we" do this more often than not.

In general that's likely. But I would be very careful not to make absolute assertions. Again, making mistakes (even knowingly) can lead to very positive outcomes or very important learning motivations.

And when I say knowingly... sometimes we just think we "know" something is a foreseeable mistake, but we might just be wrong about it and in reality it's no mistake.

Just an example:
many years ago I was 100% sure that not selling my Bitcoin after making the first 5x or 10x was absolutely a mistake.  
Today I think it was one of the best decisions in my life.  Where would I be now without making that "mistake"...

I would say making mistakes (even knowingly) from time to time might be part of a kind of natural intelligence, or maybe you could call irrational or non-linear intelligence of natural evolution. Like a mutation that brings novelty in the world of living beings.

Nicely put, although some situations (not bitcoin) are so complex that you cannot really know which way the situation would develop, so any decision might just be randomly right or wrong.
We simply have a 'survivorship' bias.
There are many examples in evolution, markets, etc that look like, basically, a random walk.
George Soros made a famous $1 bil profit on a single trade by shorting British pound and almost everyone in the investment world knows about it.
However, if they wanted, British government could have ruined that trade, just as US stopped Hunt brothers from cornering silver (by just slightly changing some rules in the middle of the "game").
They (British) probably did not care about a single billion that much.
In another example, Nick Leeson piled up $1 bil in losses and ruined his parent company (Barings Bank). One of the reasons of those losses was an earthquake in Japan; he was an over-leveraged long...and there you go. If no earthquake, maybe we would be reading about the most famous trader Nick Leeson having foundations, etc. This story was depicted in "Rogue Trader"-I enjoyed it quite a bit.

[Tipeform$]

It do be like that....



Source

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OgNasty]

This has to be one of the most stable periods in Bitcoin’s existence. When FTX went down Bitcoin was at $16,850. It’s now sitting at $16,815 and has barely had any movement since then. This signals to me that something big is going on behind the scenes. There has to be some large entity scooping up massive amounts of BTC right now. Maybe this is the reason for the Silbert delay. Seems like a good trade to follow…

[Gachapin]

But there needs to be an error margin:  will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).
  

I disagree. It's pretty counterintelligent to allow forseeable mistakes. Still, "we" do this more often than not.

In general that's likely. But I would be very careful not to make absolute assertions. Again, making mistakes (even knowingly) can lead to very positive outcomes or very important learning motivations.

And when I say knowingly... sometimes we just think we "know" something is a foreseeable mistake, but we might just be wrong about it and in reality it's no mistake.

Just an example:
many years ago I was 100% sure that not selling my Bitcoin after making the first 5x or 10x was absolutely a mistake.  
Today I think it was one of the best decisions in my life.  Where would I be now without making that "mistake"...

I would say making mistakes (even knowingly) from time to time might be part of a kind of natural intelligence, or maybe you could call irrational or non-linear intelligence of natural evolution. Like a mutation that brings novelty in the world of living beings.

Nicely put, although some situations (not bitcoin) are so complex that you cannot really know which way the situation would develop, so any decision might just be randomly right or wrong.
We simply have a 'survivorship' bias.
There are many examples in evolution, markets, etc that look like, basically, a random walk.
Geoge Soros made a famous $1 bil profit in a single trade by shorting british pound and almost everyone in the investment world knows about it.
However, if they wanted, British government could have ruined that trade, just as US stopped Hunt brothers from cornering silver (by just slightly changing some rules in the middle of the "game").
They (British) probably did not care about a single billion that much.
In another example, Nick Leeson piled up $1 bil in losses and ruined his parent company (Barings Bank). One of the reasons of those was that there was an earthquake in Japan, he was over-leveraged long...and there you go. If no earthquake, maybe we would be reading about the most famous trader Nick Leeson having foundations, etc. This story was depicted in "Rogue Trader"-I enjoyed it quite a bit.

I agree.  Most of the time processes are complex so that the randomness comes predominantly from the complexity.  A consciously right or wrong decision is not the important factor in these cases as the outcome has less to do with that decision.  
Or let's say in these cases the "ability" to make mistakes is not so important.

For the cases of more simpler or untangled circumstances the entropy which is introduced by making mistakes probably has a heavier impact on the development of an situation.

Interestingly, in these cases the actor also gets a stronger feedback of his decision (as it has more impact on the outcome), so the learning effect is stronger.  


...blabla.. don't even know if it's worth to write this post as it's probably almost the same what you wrote

[Gachapin]

This has to be one of the most stable periods in Bitcoin’s existence. When FTX went down Bitcoin was at $16,850. It’s now sitting at $16,815 and has barely had any movement since then. This signals to me that something big is going on behind the scenes. There has to be some large entity scooping up massive amounts of BTC right now. Maybe this is the reason for the Silbert delay. Seems like a good trade to follow…

Could be.  Problem is the volume charts are not very reliable as they only show a portion of the market.
So everyone could also well be waiting on the sidelines for a move down or up to buy the cycle low or a potential uptrend.

[d_eddie]

Said the machine that knows one number and one number only.

Add two to forty
You can make it if you try
The meaning of life





#haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

A green colored comet is coming in 2023 (last time it was here was 50thou years ago).
It portends well, I would think   
On Feb 1 it would be closest to earth....

https://www.foxnews.com/science/green-comet-pass-earth-neanderthals-roamed-earth

[JayJuanGee]

Ok.  I will bite.
Ruff
ruff
ruff.

You can’t bite.

However, your master can - and does.

You really are not very nice.  Abusive, too.  #justsaying

Those numbers are weird.

Oh?
Said the machine that knows one number and one number only.

I am a lot more nuanced than you are making me out to be turdbreath.  

If this ever happens, it will be the end of Bitcoin.

Agreed.
But I’m increasingly skeptical that Bitcoin needs to have resolved its privacy issues - way before then - if its to survive.

Bitcoin has "privacy issues"?

Maybe you should 'splain ur lil selfie?.... not that I should be asking if you might have any good ideas in regards to the balancing of privacy in bitcoinlandia.

Satoshi Nakamoto lives

Indeed, as in any fighter of freedom.

You are living in a fantasy land.  We do not know enough about Satoshi to conclude that he is still alive.

Another thing is that justice does not always prevail, and you should know enough about the world in order to know that - especially since you like to present ur lil selfie as a kind of "knower of all things" - which surely is not a very humble approach.. but hey, dog eat doggie world, right?

Where is our tourist? Out of pocket money?

I had a very difficult day yesterday, I wonder why, not.

Not easy to feel any sympathy for a wannabe hated character like you.

You are like the wannabe bad guy in WWF wrestling.

[Icygreen]

@Bob,
For anything it may still be worth, I want to publicly apologize for being incredibly insensitive towards you years ago. I was emotional and reacted with some comments I deeply regret.  I'd like you to know that I'm sorry to have judged and labeled you. I used sensitive information you confided in us and weaponized it in my haste.  I see how hurtful this was. It still hangs on me and I think about it more often than I'd like to admit.  Rather than continue to personally carry this into the future I'd much prefer owning it and working towards a sense of peace.
You are valuable and have mattered to all of us here. Wishing you and Rick all the best into the future!

Sincerely,
Icy    

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

But there needs to be an error margin:  will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).

I disagree. It's pretty counterintelligent to allow forseeable mistakes. Still, "we" do this more often than not.

In general that's likely. But I would be very careful not to make absolute assertions. Again, making mistakes (even knowingly) can lead to very positive outcomes or very important learning motivations.

And when I say knowingly... sometimes we just think we "know" something is a foreseeable mistake, but we might just be wrong about it and in reality it's no mistake.

Just an example:
many years ago I was 100% sure that not selling my Bitcoin after making the first 5x or 10x was absolutely a mistake.  
Today I think it was one of the best decisions in my life.  Where would I be now without making that "mistake"...

I would say making mistakes (even knowingly) from time to time might be part of a kind of natural intelligence, or maybe you could call irrational or non-linear intelligence of natural evolution. Like a mutation that brings novelty in the world of living beings.

Yep.  You seem to be getting to the essence of the issue that anyone is going to face when making decisions that may or may not be mistakes.  We do not necessarily know the outcome with certainty, and sometimes we will suffer from a bad result and other times we might end up having a windfall in terms of having the outcome that we expected but we had not realized at the time that we had made the choice that the outcome was really a low probability event. 

Sometimes we might reinforce our gambling behaviors and continue to get good results, and sometimes it will come to bite us in the butt.  Not everyone learns from mistakes, and there surely is going to be a lot of individual variance in regards to how many times they might need to get burned before learning - and there also might not even be a right answer - because maybe even a life full of mistakes might have a variety of positive outcomes weaved within, and surely there are consequences to actions and some of the available choices are going to be very limited for some folks as compared to others.

We might not even really be able to blame people for their own circumstances sometimes because we might not even know the various options that had been available or even if the loser might describe circumstances, we still might not be able to understand very well - including sometimes not always realizing various mistakes that each of us might make.. and whether we might have made the right choices, even after we had supposedly learned variations of those lessons earlier in life (or maybe just yesterday, I learned a lesson but I ended up repeating my mistake again.. maybe even hoping for a different result this time around?  hahahahaha).

In another example, Nick Leeson piled up $1 bil in losses and ruined his parent company (Barings Bank). One of the reasons of those losses was an earthquake in Japan; he was an over-leveraged long...and there you go. If no earthquake, maybe we would be reading about the most famous trader Nick Leeson having foundations, etc. This story was depicted in "Rogue Trader"-I enjoyed it quite a bit.

Goldkingcoiner did the same thing.. accidentally bet 80x.. whoops..

This has to be one of the most stable periods in Bitcoin’s existence. When FTX went down Bitcoin was at $16,850. It’s now sitting at $16,815 and has barely had any movement since then. This signals to me that something big is going on behind the scenes. There has to be some large entity scooping up massive amounts of BTC right now. Maybe this is the reason for the Silbert delay. Seems like a good trade to follow…

I don't tend to like simple explanations or "feelings" that something is going to happen.. blah blah blah.  There's no there there.

A green colored comet is coming in 2023 (last time it was here was 50thou years ago).
It portends well, I would think   
On Feb 1 it would be closest to earth....
https://www.foxnews.com/science/green-comet-pass-earth-neanderthals-roamed-earth

Jupiter7?  Is that you?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cygan]

TWITTER

old - you can also see this from the number in the upper right corner of the picture. we have already reached well over 100...