Bitcoin Forum
May 04, 2024, 03:01:46 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 ... 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 [60] 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 ... 183 »
1181  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: January 29, 2022, 05:05:22 PM
Today, a copy of a survey from a consitutional law judge was published on the web. It contains many critical questions regarding the vaccine mandate, in preparation of a trial at the constitutional court. The authenticity of the letter was not confirmed by the consitutional court yet, but the digital signature was successfully validated.
The mandate seems to get revoked in the making, as i already expected when it was discussed in parliament.
On the same day, the head of the "bioethics commission" issued a statement that the current mandate could and should be extended to include measles, pertussis and influenza vaccination for all adults.

I decided to start looking for other countries that serve as a better home for me and my family.
1182  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2022, 04:50:26 PM
That CME Bitcoin January Futures contracts got closed today, right?
Wouldn't be too surprised if BTC volume will magically grow by about the amount that was needed to keep the price lower in the last two days via selling.
I'm tempted to start trading every end-of-futures-contract, which should be one of the most successful ways to end this obvious shitfuckery  Cheesy

With such playing around, you might end up ending ur lil selfie first.

Seems better to just have a system.. and yeah..  if you want to attempt to counter-balance some seeming patterns that you see, you might be successful - until you are not, so hopefully you would not be playing with too much value in such gambling endeavors.
 

Of course no high values, a third of the "play money" at best. I could set up some limits, like only proceeding until i lost a certain part of the satoshi i have gained using that system.


... is it just a coincidence the late October '21 arrival of bitcoin futures ETF coincided with most recent ATH??

.... same thing happened in dec 2017 when first btc futures contract opened on CME, although admittedly btc was dramatically overbought at the time

Yes, these coincidences have also caught my attention.
1183  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2022, 10:07:01 PM
That CME Bitcoin January Futures contracts got closed today, right?
Wouldn't be too surprised if BTC volume will magically grow by about the amount that was needed to keep the price lower in the last two days via selling.
I'm tempted to start trading every end-of-futures-contract, which should be one of the most successful ways to end this obvious shitfuckery  Cheesy
1184  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: January 28, 2022, 09:59:51 PM

1185  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2022, 05:52:45 PM
Speaking of TA, did Gyrsur abandon the WO?

EDIT: ImThour, i don't hate your TA, but Ellioth-ish $800? C'mon! This must have been satire!
1186  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 27, 2022, 06:22:44 PM
But at the same time in the current macro environment I could see us springing up from 25k pretty handily.

I think we値l see $25,000 too, it might not be until early 2023 though. We値l bottom above $20,000 & then we値l start the low climb up as we get close to the halving in 2024 & then transition into the next bull run. We値l hit over $150,000 in 2025.

I could be totally wrong & we moon sooner which would be great. I think we池e in a bear market now though & we値l have to wait through a crypto winter before we all get girlfriends in 2025.

You池e my brother, but you gonna be wrong in this one  Kiss Kiss Kiss

so... you mean boyfriends?   Wink Cheesy Cheesy
1187  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 08:41:32 PM
Very rarely have I ever heard so many words used to say nothing at all.
TL;DR
We're doing nothing today but might do something soon.

Side Note:
In light of so many words used in saying nothing...
OpSec - I noticed J1G has been completely absent through this press conference and it's run-up.
Should we start using the abbr. J1P???
Just asking...

Dude, bots may have a real life too!  Cheesy
Change my mind  Cool
1188  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 08:11:59 PM
Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy  Shocked

EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?

Grow some balls! Going down after so many bullish news? We're going nowhere but up!  Cool

I am quite risk averse.
That's why i almost only hodl.  
Also, this is the shortest answer to JJG's question about why i am mostly trading small ranges with my micro "play money" stash, he asked about one to two weeks ago. Good that i can put a checkmark to that on my todo list as well.

I'm generally bullish, in case you didn't notice  Cool
1189  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 07:34:16 PM
Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy  Shocked

EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?
1190  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 06:01:26 PM
Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days

Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days

Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days


Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run?


There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis.
So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet.

Framing the top for this cycle as a certainty is likely to lead to problematic conclusions.... especially when at best maybe you could argue greater than 50% odds that the top is in, and I personally do not believe that it is greater than 50% odds that the top is in, even though I do understand that others could come to such a conclusion.. and perhaps even somewhat reasonable persons... hahahahahaha

On about December 16, the last time that I really went through an attempt at measuring whether the top was in, I got around 45% odds (and sure there is a bit of SOMA in that), and maybe I would be willing to tweak my numbers a wee bit since then.. but from my ongoing attempt to understand what is going on, there does not seem to be enough information to tip us over a 50% reading that the top is in... ..and maybe the most persuasive part would be that we are spending so much time in a kind of 45%-50% correction zone.. which causes it to become harder to believe that BTC prices are going to just double to get us back to our November 9 ATH.. It just feels like fantasy thinking, even though many of us know that BTC is quite capable of such - especially once the UPpity momentum gets going, it becomes harder to keep honey badger down in those kinds of circumstances of previous seemingly outrageous suppression....

So, yeah, maybe at best a reasonable person might come up with reasons to assign slightly higher than 50% odds to the top already being in.. but nothing close to treating it as a certainty seems reasonable.. at least not based on current data and logic in front of those of us who can see it.

Sane reasoning there, J.
I am a poker player, so i always try to expect the unexpected, even if against the odds. Since Bitcoin didn't do this (tumbling because of bans and politics) before, this cycle, could as well be longer than those in the past. The odds that Bitcoin will persist are above 99,9% though, just because it's great and fits that narrow gap which fiat can't close, as it is.
1191  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 05:35:56 PM
Found something really interesting. Everytime BTC goes below 1 Week 50 MA, it retested 1 Week 200 MA.
Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.  Wink



Good observation there...
But have you also noticed that it tested the 200WMA in the past only when it crossed the 50WMA before it was peaking?
This is not the case with the last dip, but the mid-2021 dip almost was such a breach.
We'll sure find out.

EDIT: Waiting for that Fed statement, thought it was announced to happen yesterday.  Roll Eyes

EDIT2: One and a half hour to go... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90AwHT7h1So
1192  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 04:07:57 PM
Dont take our scoffing too hard. Lol.  I mean, that looks like the 5 up 3 down bullmarket plus correction EW graph all right.  I just think it would take something catastrophic to make it go like that.

The scary bit is we seem to be experiencing a good deal of catastrophe... ;/ 
It's all good man, I was just pointing out that I realized my execution of EW was bad.
Deserved haha.

I was even taking it as a good joke, ala proudhon and the likes  Cheesy
1193  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 01:19:11 PM
Elliot Wave Theory on BTC at Weekly Time Frame


Dude there痴 more chance of me bedding Margot Robbie than bitcoin going anywhere near below $10,000 in our lifetime.

Sub $1,000?
You must be high on crack.

I am not sure (Idiocracy meme here) if the EW Theory is appliciable to Bitcoin anyway, because of the halvenings and adoption rate.
As for conventional assets, well, would suit a lot better, imo.
1194  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 12:56:07 PM
Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days

Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days

Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days


Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run?


There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis.
So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet.
1195  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: January 26, 2022, 08:15:11 AM
^I wish I could unsee that.


I can  Cool
I don't even have to do anything to unsee things.
That's the big plus of my little memory condition  Tongue Grin
 
1196  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 25, 2022, 06:57:52 PM
Well, it finally happened. I am Corona positive.

This is almost as much of a bummer as BTC not reaching 100k last year. Angry



Search for some advice from the Covid Thread.
Get yourself some nasal spray containing more than 1,2% of carrageenan extract. Use it also for the throat.
It reduces viral load quite efficiently, saves your immune system a lot of (hard) work.
Stay hydrated. I mean 4 liters per day, like half a glass in about 15 minutes throughout the day.
Wish you the best!
1197  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 25, 2022, 06:02:38 PM
Well, if you sell old corn, it's not really "the bottom" Wink

That makes no sense OOM.

Think again:
If you'd have mined BTC at a price of $300 (for example), how can $35k be the bottom?  Huh
Sure, it's not the best profit for a miner, not as much as selling to exchanges at $69k, but it's quite far from "selling at the bottom".

You are not helping to cause any reassurance that the mining costs directs BTC spot price.. There is a lot more going on with the BTC price regardless of that one factor, and you should know that by now... price following hashrate is not reflected in the empirical evidence, but hey, you can believe whatever you like and draw whatever correlations you like including cause and effect directions, too..

And for sure it is even more problematic when you pick such a minority factor in terms of attempting to figure out BTC price dynamics when there are other factors... as I already mentioned .. including stock to flow, 4 year fractal, exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects (yes mining is one of the 7 network effects.. so it is part of something to consider but surely no leader)....

I think that you are going to have a tough time if you are too overly dependent on your miner costs controls the price narrative, and also likely to miss out on some other important ways of attempting to understand BTCs price... .. but hey.. do what you like... you are not going to get me to go along with such shadows on the wall theories in regards to the miners role in BTC price dynamics.

Hmm, i don't even believe in any "miner costs control price" dynamics. It can only have a tiny fraction of influence on the price, i'm not that dumb Smiley
Seems like the good ol' misunderstanding, but i am not too surprised, because i picked out a wee aspect of a complex system, where one output parameter results in the property "price".
But the initial thought was quite simple and might have mislead you in believing that i look at the market in a simple way. Well, sometimes i do, when i try to explain bitcoin to noobs (rarely) but that's a whole different story. To be honest, my understanding of market details and their dependencies is very limited, but every now and then some new understandings click into place, and your detailed posts about the matter also contribute to this more often than not.
1198  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 25, 2022, 10:53:09 AM
Long time I have been hearing from Roger actually and much longer from that Jihan character

Both forked themselves into irrelevancy

Roger pretty much disappeared from everywhere...
Bitcoin talk: Not Active
Twitter: Dead
Reddit: disappeared
But it is very active non.. Drumroll..

Instagram!


Not a nice view, tbh.


A coke withdrawal and its consequences just aren't nice to view  Wink

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.

...

... respect. Welcome to the All-In Club.

... relax,  leave the old world behind as much as you can.

FTFY:
... relax,  accept the old world as much as you can.

for no being a part of it any longer

Poor fiat-evangelists deserve some empathy, don't they?

Well, if you sell old corn, it's not really "the bottom" Wink

That makes no sense OOM.

Think again:
If you'd have mined BTC at a price of $300 (for example), how can $35k be the bottom?  Huh
Sure, it's not the best profit for a miner, not as much as selling to exchanges at $69k, but it's quite far from "selling at the bottom".
1199  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: January 25, 2022, 10:49:13 AM

With Omicron, the need for Ivermectin has practically gone to zero. Carrageen nasal spray is the best thing you can do at the time, reducing viral load in the parts of the body where the virus primarily replicates, which are nose and throat. Additionally NAC, Quercetine and Vitamin C, possibly Vitamin D to downregulate inflammatory markers. With Alpha, Beta, Delta and the so called "wild type", Ivermectin still makes sense, maybe even with future variants, but the dosage is key. Too little and it has no effect, too much and it can cause some serious trouble.

An immune system needs to take a breath between infections (immunizations), too, i guess?
Would make sense, not backed by scientific data, though.

The whole idea of keeping antibodies at an elevated state in one's body, all the time, is completely insane and contrary to good health. Having ongoing elevated antibodies is called chronic inflammation, and it's bad for the body's systems. Like really bad. It can lead to a whole host of health problems and auto immune diseases.

Infection is supposed to be a very acute, short term thing your body has to deal with. A healthy, functioning immune system learns how to make antibodies to attack a perceived threat, generates them until the threat is gone, and then stores that learning of antibody production into long term T-cell memory. That's the whole point. Antibodies are supposed to go away once that threat is gone. And yes, this IS backed by Biology 101 and evolutionary science.

So if the point of the vaccines was to help your body's immune system learn how to make antibodies and store that into memory, then why the need for endless, ongoing jabs and boosters to "keep your antibodies elevated"? You're basically walking around in a chronically inflamed state, all the time. Insanity for the ignorant.


As science and research really got boosted Cheesy through Covid, a condition called T-Cell Anergie ("Unergy", opposed to "Energy") was looked more close at, which takes place when T-Cells are confronted with antigens too often, like regularly in HIV and Cancer. This is why it makes sense to suppress the immune response in these patients. Anergy describes a condition of T-Cells which no more react to specific antigens, because of "exhaustion". This is probably what periodically vaccinated people are going to experience, the WHO is already aware of and doesn't reccommend a fourth shot (hello, Israel?).
It was also what i was suffering from in my health condition. I had flus all the time in winter, the blood test was showing too many T-Cells but many of them "didn't react" against the flu antigens. So i got exhausted, never got a fever to clear out the bugs from my blood and constantly suffered symptoms from a cold.
Also, in Long Covid patients, parts of virus DNA are still detectable in the stool and various tissues, long time after having tested negative.
The immune system is confronted with a heavy load and in turn, T-cells are practically burning out. So it's not a big surprise that an mRNA vaccine shot after long covid reactivates the immune response via mRNA mechanism, instead of presenting antigens like it would be the case with a natural infection, which in turn clears out the remains of the virus.

This vaxxing mania will likely bring up many subsequent challenges to keep us busy. As so often, politics and "big pharma" fucked us up, again.
That's why i never get vaccinated, with the exclusion of well tested, conventional vaccines which are still about to get approved and rolled out in Q2/2022.
Until then, i continue to routinely protect myself, my loved ones and the people surrounding us.

Thanks to Bitcoin, i can pay the fines for not getting vaxxed, and if the mandate law fails the consitutional court, i'll even get my worthless fiat money back.
1200  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 24, 2022, 07:19:47 PM
stonk refugees would also see a beautyful island in BTC if the FED blows up the market tomorrow.
Too good to be true?
No?

EDIT: On the downside, the flip-back would be painful as well.

EDIT2: Maybe inflation will be fixing this, too  Tongue
Pages: « 1 ... 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 [60] 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 ... 183 »
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!