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981  Economy / Economics / Re: Is it worth buying a crypto with a value of 0.23? on: June 06, 2022, 06:19:40 PM
It is a currency with a very high appreciation ratio, starting at 0.23. In your opinion, is it worth starting with this type of currency?


A 23% appreciation in value is a blanket condition covering every imaginable scenario from fickle pump and dump schemes to robust long term gains that will be made on solid fundamentals.

Everyone can see the price moving in a positive direction. Which indicates significantly greater purchasing volume in contrast to sell orders.

The key step is to identify the motive behind the sharp uptake in buying volume, driving prices upwards. This can be done by finding a rough estimate of the number of buy orders that were executed (the purchasing volume present). Through experience and looking at basic statistics and features, the true market value can be guessed at.

Being able to discern the difference between shoddy gimmicks and legitimate features which carry real demand is also important for appraising crypto valuation. Having legitimate utility and demand has high correlation with future appreciation in value. While shoddy gimmicks trend towards the opposite.
982  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Can You See Or Tell If A Fight Or Event Is Fix ? on: June 06, 2022, 05:13:20 PM
When I was more serious about gambling I studied history of past cases where leagues admitted games were rigged.

Quote
From the archives: How former ref Tim Donaghy conspired to fix NBA games

Editor's note: This two-year investigation, which revealed how disgraced referee Tim Donaghy conspired to fix NBA games, whom he did it with and the millions of dollars that flowed from the conspiracy, was originally published on Feb. 19, 2019. July 9 is the anniversary of Donaghy's resignation from the NBA.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25980368/how-former-ref-tim-donaghy-conspired-fix-nba-games

It also helps to study the process by which odds are set and how the industry approaches things.

I think its safe to say some core foundational knowledge is necessary before a person can have a good enough grasp of things to say whether games are rigged.
983  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Kenyan energy company entices Bitcoin miners with geothermal power on: June 03, 2022, 03:18:46 PM
Geothermal power is cheaper than hydroelectric on average. And should represent something like a silver bullet to give miners reduced electricity costs in the industry.

The average broadband speed in kenya is around 10 megabits per second. Which should mean they have the broadband infrastructure necessary for miners to operate there in addition to low cost industrial power.

The average wage in parts of africa is $40 a month. Which could mean associate labor costs are far lower than average. On the flipside, crypto mining in africa could also perhaps help to elevate the average wage and create jobs.
984  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Crypto moving into world. Algo sponsor FIFA on: June 03, 2022, 03:06:03 PM
I think this is a brilliant move on algorands part. Regulation could be coming down on crypto markets. The more entrenched and established crypto can become before that time, the more difficult it could be for it to be influenced. It also fosters mass adoption and helps the general public to become more crypto literate. We've seen similar moves with crypto.com entering the worlds of MMA, professional surfing and european football. Marshall Rogan Inu made a big hit in the UFC recently with some going to far as to say it was one of the biggest unifying factors they've ever seen in combat sports.

We've also seen many professional athletes embrace crypto. NFL players and MMA fighters whose salaries are paid in bitcoin. Former boxers like Mike Tyson owned bitcoin ATMs and Floyd Mayweather was invovled in ICOs.

Hollywood, entertainment and movies could be another area for crypto to explore given artists like 50 cent who have ventured into crypto investment.
985  Economy / Economics / Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane on: June 03, 2022, 02:59:48 PM
Quote
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says he is preparing the biggest U.S. bank for an economic hurricane on the horizon and advised investors to do the same.

“You know, I said there’s storm clouds but I’m going to change it … it’s a hurricane,” Dimon said Wednesday at a financial conference in New York. While conditions seem “fine” at the moment, nobody knows if the hurricane is “a minor one or Superstorm Sandy,” he added.

“You’d better brace yourself,” Dimon told the roomful of analysts and investors. “JPMorgan is bracing ourselves and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.”

Beginning late last year with high-flying tech names, stocks have been hammered as investors prepare for the end of the Federal Reserve’s cheap money era. Inflation at multidecade highs, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and the coronavirus pandemic, has sown fear that the Fed will inadvertently tip the economy into recession as it combats price increases.  

While stocks bounced from a precipitous decline in recent weeks on optimism that inflation may be easing, Dimon seemed to dash hopes that the bottom is in.

“Right now, it’s kind of sunny, things are doing fine, everyone thinks the Fed can handle this,” Dimon said. “That hurricane is right out there, down the road, coming our way.”

There are two main factors that has Dimon worried: First, the Federal Reserve has signaled it will reverse its emergency bond-buying programs and shrink its balance sheet. The so-called quantitative tightening, or QT, is scheduled to begin this month and will ramp up to $95 billion a month in reduced bond holdings.

“We’ve never had QT like this, so you’re looking at something you could be writing history books on for 50 years,” Dimon said. Several aspects of quantitative easing programs “backfired,” including negative rates, which he called a “huge mistake.”

Central banks “don’t have a choice because there’s too much liquidity in the system,” Dimon said, referring to the tightening actions. “They have to remove some of the liquidity to stop the speculation, reduce home prices and stuff like that.”

The other large factor worrying Dimon is the Ukraine war and its impact on commodities, including food and fuel. Oil “almost has to go up in price” because of disruptions caused by the worst European conflict since World War II, potentially hitting $150 or $175 a barrel, Dimon said.

“Wars go bad, [they] go south in unintended consequences,” Dimon said. “We’re not taking the proper actions to protect Europe from what’s going to happen to oil in the short run.”

‘Huge volatility’

Last week, during an investor conference for his bank, Dimon referred to his economic concerns as “storm clouds” that could dissipate. Presentations from Dimon and his deputies at the all-day meeting have bolstered JPMorgan shares by giving greater detail on investments and updated figures on interest revenue.

But his concerns seem to have deepened since then.

During the response to the 2008 financial crisis, central banks, commercial banks and foreign exchange trading firms were the three major buyers of U.S. Treasurys, Dimon said Wednesday. The players won’t have the capacity or desire to soak up as many U.S. bonds this time, he warned.

“That’s a huge change in the flow of funds around the world,” Dimon said. “I don’t know what the effect of that is, but I’m prepared for, at a minimum, huge volatility.”

One step the bank could take to gird itself for a coming hurricane is to push clients to move a type of lower-quality deposit called “non-operating deposits” into other places, such as money market funds, for example. That would help the bank manage its capital requirements under international rules, potentially helping it absorb a surge in bad loans.

“With all this capital uncertainty, we’re going to have to take actions,” Dimon said. “I kind of want to shed nonoperating deposits again, which we can do in size, to protect ourselves so we can serve clients in bad times. That’s the environment we’re dealing with.”

Banks having a “fortress balance sheet” and conservative accounting are the best protections for a downturn, Dimon said.

The bank has shied away from servicing a lot of federal FHA loans, he said, because delinquencies could hit 5% or 10% there, “which is guaranteed to happen in a downturn,” Dimon said.

‘Shame on you’

Dimon went on a tear during the hourlong session, barreling through topics like a “greatest hits” of his observations and gripes, often letting loose with profanity.

He lambasted investors for voting along with proxy advisors like Glass Lewis, which has disagreed with JPMorgan’s board on recent matters including executive compensation and whether the bank should separate the chairman and CEO roles in the future.

“Shame on you if that’s how you vote,” Dimon said. “Seriously, you should be embarrassed. Do your own homework.”

Companies are being driven out of public markets “because of litigation, regulation, press, cookie-cutter governance,” he added.  

Meanwhile, other critics often conflate stakeholder capitalism for being “woke,” Dimon said.  “I am a red-blooded, free market capitalist and I’m not woke,” he said.

“All we’re saying is when we wake up in the morning, we give a s--- about serving customers, earning their respect, earning their repeat business.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html


....


It seems the current era will be defined by the polar opposite to QE (quantitative easing) which they are calling QT (quantitative tightening). With a claimed $95 billion a month in reduced federal reserve bond holdings. With the fed officially being recognized as one of the largest holders of US bonds, that shift could have a significant affect on markets.

If big players like banks are being conservative and switching to bear strategies. Those trends could carry over to smaller players. Which raises interesting questions of which assets are expected to perform best under future circumstances. One place to start is by keyword searching: "best recession performing assets" and allowing things to progress from there. Although I think its fair to say that most investment wisdom dates back to a pre internet age and doesn't include many modern innovations.

986  Economy / Economics / Re: COVID had widened the gap between world's richest and poorest on: June 02, 2022, 11:58:05 PM
I think trends of wealth and wage inequality have persisted for some time before COVID.



https://i.imgur.com/IrBKk5o.jpg

CEOs are extremely overpaid with some earning $10,000 an hour.

The logical step would be for CEOs and business executives to take pay cuts to give workers pay raises to balance out the economy.
987  Economy / Economics / Re: Crypto exit strategies on: June 02, 2022, 11:53:09 PM
Basic exit strategy is selling on a peak rather than a valley. Reducing the number of fees, taxes and middlemen involved in the exit. Having a safe and inflation protected asset class to deposit funds in afterward.

An example of this could be selling a crypto exchange trading account on ebay, rather than selling assets and withdrawing funds to avoid fees and taxes. Or offering to trade an account for gold and precious metals. They might have to sell for 10% less than what their crypto holdings are worth. But a 10% loss would still be better than what they would end up paying in fees and taxes which works out to a gain.

While some are selling and exiting the market. There are others who are HODLing until the next rewards halving who might be willing to acquire holdings at 10% lower of market value. That could be a win/win scenario for both buyer and seller which is a good business practice to pursue imo.
988  Economy / Economics / Re: Covid omicron version 2.0 monkeypox coming and markets on: June 02, 2022, 11:44:03 PM
If I have my facts straight, monkey pox is transmitted mainly by skin to skin contact. It can't propagate by riding exhaled air the way that COVID can. Which means its transmission rate will be far lower.

The mortality rate of monkey pox is in question with media sources claiming between "3% to 6% of cases result in death":

Quote
How dangerous is monkeypox?

Monkeypox is usually mild and most people who contract it recover within two to four weeks.

However, in some cases it can result in severe illness. Historically it has a fatality rate of between 0 to 11 per cent among the general population, with fatalities higher among young children, according to the World Health Organisation.

In recent times, the case fatality ratio has been around 3 to 6 per cent.

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/monkeypox-deadly-how-dangerous-virus-uk-outbreak-explained-cases-infection-1645431

Cases can probably be contained as symptoms are easy to identify and the transmission method isn't likely to result in global pandemic levels.
989  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: European football now belongs to the highest bidder on: June 02, 2022, 11:33:05 PM
Yesterday I saw a sports celebrity claiming NASCAR (racing) is scripted with predetermined winners and losers:

NASCAR is scripted...
30,220 viewsJun 1, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJwFR_UDAmk

Last year former chicago bears running back claimed the NFL (american football) is scripted:

Quote
Former Chicago Bears Running Back Calls NFL "Scripted"

It seems like Benny Cunningham wanted people to think so when he tweeted, "The NFL is scripted but they make us sign something so we can't go into detail... Tired of holding back.. Who want the full story .."

He sure made it sound like he had a saucy little scoop he was willing to sell to newspapers.

Predictably, tons of folks began flooding the former Chicago Bears running back for details.

In addition to the Bears, Benny also played for the Rams and Jaguars and was released by the Jacksonville franchise on August 11th, 2019. He's currently a free agent.

https://www.distractify.com/p/nfl-scripted

There could be something to the concept of professional sports being bought and owned by the highest bidder who decides the outcome of games.

But I think this remains a controversial topic for the moment.
990  Economy / Economics / Re: What is the golden rule of investment? on: June 01, 2022, 11:50:22 PM
1 golden rule in investing is: never give financial advice to anyone.





https://i.ibb.co/K7D24fy/fish.jpg

The main advantage humans have over animals is greater cognitive capacity.

Which is interesting considering our trend towards many believing they're better off not developing it.

Everyone has within themselves the power to learn to become a good investor and trader.

But most will never succeed at it due to the belief that they're better off not developing their minds and simply accepting financial advice from others.
991  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Education:Can You Volunteer in El Salvador or Central African Republic? on: June 01, 2022, 11:38:42 PM
If you have the opportunity, would you volunteer to teach Bitcoin education in El Salvador or Central African Republic?



El salvador has beautiful beaches, a tropical climate and well developed tourist areas. There are many who would pay real money to vacation there much less travel and stay there as a volunteer. That could be a good opportunity for those who enjoy travelling, meeting new people and making connections.

Regions of africa as well are beautiful and have wildlife preserves and good areas for tourists.

I think most of bitcoin and blockchain is easy to understand using block diagrams and basic principles. The content is easier and has a lower learning curve than becoming fluent in a foreign language.

The only thing that could make things dicey is COVID, travel restrictions, inflation and economic crisis. Crime is on the rise in many areas and tourists are usually a prime target considering they carry a lot of funds on them for emergencies.

992  Other / Archival / Re: Bitcoin's historical correlation with traditional markets begins to weaken on: June 01, 2022, 11:33:00 PM
if bitcoin's price movement can accurately be defined in relative 4 year boom and bust cycles correlating with miner rewards halving. Over the long term we may see that the latest BTC bust cycle is merely correlating with the recent bust cycle of the DOW.

On a day trading perspective the claimed correlation between equities and crypto becomes apparent. It is possible that both trading in lockstep cannot be maintained. It takes a sufficient quantity of liquidity to maintain the correlation and liquidity could decline over time as it is eroded by inflation on the stock market side of things.

Another aspect to consider is earnings reports. The outlook of which is not looking great for US retailers. There could be significantly greater downforce on stocks and equities in contrast to crypto. Which will make the claimed correlation between the two asset classes difficult or impossible to maintain over the long term.
993  Economy / Economics / Bitcoin Is Legal Tender in El Salvador, Here’s How It’s Going on: June 01, 2022, 10:31:58 PM
Quote
Bitcoin has been legal tender in El Salvador since September 2021. It’s a bold financial experiment—so how’s that going? Data based on a survey by the National Bureau of Economic Research can help us understand how the process of Bitcoin adoption is going for everyday people.

The results show that after the initial big push from the government of El Salvador to encourage its citizens to begin using this new financial system, enthusiasm and adoption are lackluster. Adoption in most key metrics has atrophied, and there’s little momentum.

Background on Bitcoin in El Salvador

El Salvador’s currency since 2001 has been the US dollar, which makes them completely dependent on the United States to formulate their monetary policy. In September 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to make Bitcoin legal tender by passing the Bitcoin Law which required all economic agents to accept Bitcoin for all payments.

To facilitate this new system, the Salvadoran government also launched an app called the “Chivo Wallet,” which allows users to digitally trade both Bitcoin and dollars over the Lightning Network, a layer 2 solution for quick and cheap peer-to-peer payments using the Bitcoin blockchain network as the foundation. To backstop this new system, the El Salvadoran government has been buying Bitcoin on the market and holding it in reserve to create a liquidity pool for exchanging US dollars to Bitcoin and vice versa.

The government created a $30 incentive available to anyone who downloads the app and enrolls. Keep in mind that $30 is a decent amount of money for many citizens, and is equal to approximately 0.7% of per capita annual income in El Salvador.

Data Shows Adoption Is Low and Stalled



https://i.imgur.com/f9Hjxrh.jpg

Bitcoin’s use as legal tender and its associated rollout in El Salvador isn’t going as well as they hoped it would go. Although many El Salvadorans have a smartphone with internet access, less than 60% of them downloaded the Chivo Wallet required to participate. Less than 40% of citizens who downloaded the app continued to use it after claiming their $30 bonus incentive.



https://i.imgur.com/HyAZS2e.jpg

All businesses were required to begin accepting payments in Bitcoin but that has not happened. Only 20% of companies reported accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment and most of them were large organizations. Out of all sales, only 5% were conducted in Bitcoin and most transactions were converted to dollars within the Chivo Wallet upon receipt of payment.

Chivo App



https://i.imgur.com/EjEVvGp.jpg

The Chivo Wallet application was created by the El Salvadoran government to facilitate the adoption of their new monetary policies. The Chivo Wallet has been plagued with issues and has therefore had a mixture of effects on the roll-out.

When it first launched, there were problems with registration and the identity verification process. Because of the $30 government incentive, there were many instances of fraud, identity theft, and phishing attacks with people attempting to claim the $30 incentive for others.

The survey reveals that 68% of people know about the existence of the app and of those 78% of those who had heard of it downloaded or attempted to download it with the help of family or friends. The most common way they learned about the app was through social media, then by television and radio, followed by the news, and lastly friends and family. Only 40% continued to use the app after claiming their $30 incentive.

Over 21% of respondents knew about Chivo Wallet but did not attempt to download it. The most important reason reported was that users prefer to use cash. This was followed by trust issues—respondents did not trust the system or Bitcoin itself. The fourth most frequent reason mentioned was not owning a phone with the internet, followed by the technology being complicated.

When El Salvadorans do use the Chivo Wallet, they tend to transact in US dollars because the volatility of Bitcoin is seen as a liability to them. A fluctuation of several dollars might mean they cannot afford to eat the next day or afford transportation to work.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the app is used by a subset of the population like street vendors as a cash replacement because it’s convenient for small peer-to-peer payments. This functionality is actually what is most used within the Chivo Wallet because you can use the app like Venmo and quickly send US dollars from person to person without any exposure to Bitcoin.

Lack of Trust & Privacy Are Deterrents



https://i.imgur.com/v3YlBQC.jpg

Going from the mindset of a cash economy where all transactions are essentially anonymous to an environment in which every financial transaction is now under the guise of the federal government is a big switch that many citizens were not ready to make.

When you download the Chivo Wallet, you have to complete an identity verification process commonly referred to in the industry as Know Your Customer or KYC. This is a common practice when onboarding into many cryptocurrency exchanges. Because of this process, the government can track and trace every transaction that happens using the Chivo Wallet. Opportunities for surveillance are another critique that people reported in the survey when deciding not to participate citing they didn’t trust the system or the technology.

Failure to Capture Remittance Market



https://i.imgur.com/1TsCks3.jpg

A major use case lauded by supporters is the amount of money that would stay in the hands of El Salvadorans rather than money gram companies. Remittances account for 20% of El Salvador’s GDP.

However, the study shows that only 3% of people reported receiving remittances in Bitcoin and only 8% in US dollars using the Chivo Wallet. This is in line with the El Salvadoran Central Bank’s data which stated that in 2022 only 1.6% of remittances were sent through a digital wallet.

Silver Linings

About 70% of the population of El Salvador is unbanked, meaning they don’t maintain a regular bank account or have access to typical banking services. Allowing everyone with a smartphone to access the Chivo Wallet opens up new avenues of access and services for a large swath of the population that has never had these options before.

Sometimes it could take an hour or more on a bus to visit a bank on their day off to cash their checks. Workers can now receive their paychecks daily or weekly without having to visit a bank. The Chivo Wallet has two accounts, one for Bitcoin and the other for US dollars. They can transact in Bitcoin or dollars and anyone else with the Chivo wallet app can receive Bitcoin or dollars.

For many El Salvadorans, this is the first time they have encountered the ability to have banking services like a savings account. Many report using the Bitcoin account as their savings account and their US dollar account as their checking account. Increasing access to banking services and financial inclusion is one major positive outcome of this policy shift.

Lessons Learned



https://i.imgur.com/4mfAJiv.jpg

The adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador hasn’t reached critical mass for a variety of cultural and administrative reasons. These results are despite one of the benefits lauded of the Chivo Wallet was enabling contactless payments during COVID-19. A major hiccup was that the government’s top down decision surprised and confused the population with little warning which only exacerbated issues with their roll out.

El Salvadorans are accustomed to an anonymous cash economy expressed in US dollars and many don’t trust the new technology, especially after a botched launch with many technical issues with the Chivo Wallet. Many people were enticed to participate only to claim the free money reward and then abandoned the program. The lack of privacy or trust in the system and the price volatility of Bitcoin are two other deterrents to participating.

In a country that is highly unbanked, the ability to include more people into the financial system and reduce friction for workers getting paid is a major benefit that should be acknowledged despite the clunkiness of the approach. The Bitcoin experiment in El Salvador is a financial exploration that we can all learn from. We’ll be watching closely.


https://www.howtogeek.com/801982/bitcoin-is-legal-tender-in-el-salvador-heres-how-its-going/


....


The most statistically comprehensive breakdown I've seen on el salvador's campaign of bitcoin adoption.

All of the data is collected from economic surveys, which are not so different from political polls. Recently it was revealed that the sample size for twitters bot statistics was based on polling/surveys of 100 users which goes to show how modern day surveys and polls may not always be the most reliable sources of information.

The survey in question polled 846 men and 954 women for a total sample size of 1800.



https://i.ibb.co/JBrxCt6/sample.jpg

The strangest thing about the collected data is the el salvadoran public's claimed distrust of the government and state technology roll outs like chivo wallet. Shouldn't they be happy the government is taking steps to save them?
994  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: NFT slot Machine !! on: June 01, 2022, 09:56:19 PM
Whether slot NFTs are successful or the opposite, will depend on the ease and convenience of their sale process. If its too much of a hassle to sell slot NFTs people won't bother with them. Also if the sale price is too low or there is too much volatility involved.

The artwork would also probably need to be a limited edition of some type that the average person can appreciate. Who is a hot actress or model at the moment? A limited edition photoshoot with one of them could make for a decent NFT that people would collect and HODL. Limited edition and rare sports memorabilia could be another angle worth pursuing. Commissioned artwork from famous artists is another typical approach for collectibles.

Co host of mythbusters Adam Savage recently got a tattoo on his arm to measure inches and centimeters. I wonder if a NFT with conversion rates for watts, ounces, liters and other units of measurement could be a hit.
995  Economy / Economics / U.S. trucking downturn foreshadows possible economic gloom on: May 31, 2022, 07:15:08 PM
Quote
April 25 (Reuters) - Craig Fuller monitors millions of transactions between U.S. truckers and their customers as chief executive of transportation data company FreightWaves - and he does not like what he is seeing.

There has been an unexpectedly sharp downturn in demand to truck everything from food to furniture since the beginning of March and rates in the overheated segment that deals in on-demand trucking jobs - known as the spot market - are skidding.

"It basically just dropped off a cliff," said Fuller, who is concerned that the United States is at the start of a trucking recession that could decimate truckers' ability to dictate prices and push some small trucking firms into bankruptcy.

Meanwhile, investors and financial analysts worry what will happen if the trucking slump deepens and spreads.

History has proven trucking to be a possible indicator for the U.S. economy. That is because when people buy less, companies ship less - and business activity slows. Economic recessions followed six of the 12 trucking recessions since 1972, according to an analysis by trucking data company Convoy.

Experts predicted trucking would soften a bit as pandemic-weary consumers shifted some spending from goods to services in response to the United States lifting COVID prevention measures. But they did not foresee Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which sent fuel prices to record highs, jolted already volatile stock markets, and forced shoppers to hit pause.

And now, trucking's most demand-sensitive sector - the spot market - is in correction territory.

"It is the proverbial 'canary in the mineshaft'," said Joseph Rajkovacz, director of governmental affairs for the Western States Trucking Association. The group represents small trucking companies that dominate the spot market, which handled as much as 30% of freight during the height of the pandemic.

The spot rate deterioration hit when diesel prices were roughly doubling, battering the take-home pay of truckers like Marco Padilla, 63.

A few years ago, California-based Padilla spent 25-30 cents per mile to run his truck. "So for every dollar (of pay), I was pocketing 70 cents. Now it costs $1 a mile," said Padilla.

Average first-quarter spot rates, excluding fuel, dove 55 cents from $2.78 per mile in mid-January to $2.23 on April 14. Spot rates normally drop about 22 cents per mile during that period, said Dean Croke, freight market analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics.

While spot rates remained 37 cents per mile above what they were during the last bull market for trucking in April 2018, they fell 6 cents year-over-year earlier this month - marking the first such reversal of the current cycle.

"That's where the fear is. Is that the floor? Does this keep going?" Croke said of the demand-led decline.

BOOM TO BUST?

The share of freight handled by the U.S. spot trucking market roughly doubled after consumer spending on durable goods surged some 20% during the pandemic. In their rush to keep up, retailers and other shippers focused on speed over efficiency - using more trucks and exacerbating demand for them.

At one point, the truckload spot market was handling more than 1 million loads per day, versus its historical average of about 400,000, said Brent Hutto, chief relationship officer at TruckStop.com, which - like DAT - matches truckers with spot market loads.

But demand tumbled in March, when retail sales excluding purchases of gasoline fell 0.3%. Online sales, which surged during the pandemic, declined for the second month in a row. read more

Skyrocketing diesel prices convinced shippers to wait to fill truck trailers, rather than rushing them out partially loaded - further moderating demand, analysts said.

Big trucking firms like JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT.O) and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX.N) are somewhat insulated by their one-year, fixed-price contracts with companies ranging from Walmart (WMT.N) and Home Depot (HD.N) to Procter & Gamble (PG.N). Walmart and many other companies have in-house trucking while also employing outside firms.

Stifel transportation analyst Bert Subin said in a research note that he expects soft truckload demand in the second and third quarters, followed by a holiday season-fueled fourth-quarter rebound. Deutsche Bank earlier this month predicted interest rate hikes will tip the United States into recession next year.

Meanwhile, some shippers are asking for shorter trucking contracts, "given their belief that rates may tick lower," Cowen transportation analysts said in a recent note.

Indeed, some executives like Fraser Townley, CEO of video gaming controller seller T2M, are celebrating the declining trucking prices as a relief to their profit margins.

"They're about one-third down. There's still a long way to go," Townley said.





https://www.reuters.com/business/us-trucking-downturn-foreshadows-possible-economic-gloom-2022-04-25/


....


Electric and hydrogen powered 18 wheelers can't arrive quickly enough.

Years ago there was a buzz around biodiesel processed from waste vegetable oil collected from restaurants. Normally restaurants pay to have their waste oil disposed of, which made it feasible for biodiesel advocates to collect it for free. I wonder what happened to that movement? It seems like something that could be useful at the moment.

Another interesting angle is many diesel engines being flex fuel and being able to combust vegetable oil (as illustrated on myth busters):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEX1YFXYTdI

At a certain tipping point, vegetable oil could become a more affordable fuel than diesel. Thankfully we have not yet reached that point. If circumstances became desperate perhaps it would be feasible to increase production of vegetables used to create vegetable oil in an effort to reduce prices of alternative fuels?
.
996  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The digital ID for Gambling on: May 31, 2022, 07:03:21 PM
Introducing this type of ID format does heavily centralize log in authentication under the state. Centralization in security matters might be correlated with a single point of failure. As it connects multiple gambling portals under a single monolithic system. It is possible that all of those gambling sites can be compromised by simply compromising one single government site. Which could be a poor model to pursue as far as operational security goes.

In the united states they do security audits of infrastructure and different sectors of business, the state and economy. To see how prepared and well defended it is against electronic attacks and cyber intrusions. Every year the united states receives poor grades on its internet security preparedness. I can't comment on denmark's state of affairs as far as internet security goes but I hope its better than the united states.

997  Economy / Economics / Russia's economy is 'imploding' on export decline, economists claim on: May 31, 2022, 06:53:08 PM
Quote
Russia's economy is collapsing as exports to the sanctioned country plummet in the face of President Vladimir Putin's ongoing, unprovoked war in Ukraine, trade experts suggest.

The "economy is imploding. We forecast a GDP collapse of -30% by end-2022," Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance trade group, tweeted on Sunday.  

Brooks added that data compiled with help from Jonathan Pingle, an IIF researcher, indicated that exports from 20 countries to Russia were down 50% in April compared to the same time a year prior.

But monthly exports from Russia to other countries were up 64% in April compared to the same time a year prior, Brooks said on Monday, as oil and gas sales become a bigger part of Moscow's revenue.

Brooks said the country's account surpluses were "massive," which meant Russia was exporting far more than it was importing.

Russia stopped publishing its trade data after invading Ukraine in late February, so Brooks said the data was compiled using 20 of the country's top trading partners.

The Observatory of Economic Complexity said Russia's top trading partners include China and Germany.  

Since the invasion, European and Western countries have unveiled a slew of sanctions packages aimed at crippling Russia's economy.

Ukraine's government has routinely lobbied for harsher sanctions and led a push to try to redirect European Union countries away from Russian gas and oil — a main source of Moscow's federal revenue.


https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-imploding-exports-under-pressure-ukraine-war-sanctions-2022-5


....


They say russian imports are down 50%. While russian exports are up 64%. Therefore russia's GDP will suffer a collapse of 30% by the end of 2022.

As far as I know russia's food production has risen annually which has decreased demand for food imports. Russia's imports should fall naturally as it seeks to become more independent under sanctions. Russia has lived under economic sanctions for so many years I don't know what sanctions they propose to impose on them that have not already been done.

Russia exporting more than it imports may also represent the opposite of a trade deficit. Which could be a good arrangement depending on who you ask.

China and germany being named as russia's largest trading partners is another surprise considering natural gas and oil exports to the EU have typically been named as the route to crashing russia's economy.
998  Economy / Economics / Re: Food crisis coming? What's wrong about it? It could be good on: May 31, 2022, 06:46:59 PM
We have become isolated from how lucky we are to have off season produce year round. How important it is to maintain biodiversity and our fate being linked to the balance of global ecosystems. People have begun to believe they've evolved beyond having to think about or know basic fundamental things. That governments and politicians exist so they never have to think about or know anything. That they're better off not using the one thing that gives people an advantage over animals -- their minds.

It is possible that human survival has become too easy and convenient. And that humanity has begun to negatively regress as a result.

In movies and TV I see characters who are so obstinate and greedy that they cannot resolve their differences without murdering each other. This seems a foolish and childish precedent to me. But looking at the real world there appear to be many who embrace this. They can't resolve their disagreements without resorting to violence or murder like characters on TV. Is this what human progress looks like. Or is it a regression back towards the dark ages.

While a food crisis may not be a pleasant experience. It may force us to rethink things. Most of us don't know human sacrifice and infanticide in ancient times may have been correlated with inadequate food production. People in ancient times may not have had enough food to feed their children and so they sacrificed them to assorted deities as a cultural norm.

People in modern times have so many advantages over those who lived in past eras. And typically take advantage of and appreciate none of them.
999  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Strongman] 2022 World’s Strongest Man on: May 31, 2022, 04:55:18 PM
If select participant's of the World's Strongest Man know in advance what the events will be. They can train specifically for those events and gain an advantage over other participants.

The format and events for WSM should be identical every year. That way no one can gain an unfair advantage by knowing what the year's *surprise* events will be.

It could also be good to introduce a balance between raw strength and cardio challenges for health purposes. Former World's Strongest Man, Mariusz Pudzianowski struggled with cardio when he made the transition to MMA. Pure bulking and massing isn't good for the human immune system and other aspects of health.
1000  Economy / Economics / Re: Should we embrace a cashless policy?? on: May 31, 2022, 01:56:50 PM

Pros:
1. Reduces crime rates as there is no tangible money to steal.
2. Decrease in money laundering



Most crime today is electronic rather than physical in nature. The biggest bank heists were all electronic. Increasing the amount of electronic money in circulation should correlate with elevated crime.

Governments and banks contribute to a significant volume of money laundering in the world. Crime syndicates, drug cartels and terrorist groups usually have connections with big corporations, banks and governments which allow them to launder money. Preventing average consumers from laundering funds won't necessarily do anything to address the issue. As they have never really been targeted for money laundering. Most of the action is with big players in large sums of cash which only institutional upper level establishments deal in.

A cashless society could reduce the number of financial tools, options and opportunities average people have access to. Which would in turn stifle economic growth and innovation. While the digital world has contributed much towards society. Not everything is better when its digitized. There are some cases where written record keeping and a legitimate paper trail are better suited to roles than digital alternatives. Cash and paper money could be one example of this.
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