Armstrong will be wrong again. Nothing special will happen Oct 2015.
Even Armstrong said this. Don't expect some market to crash on that day, but it will be important turning point that indicates years of misery ahead (countries going bankrupt, companies going bankrupt, more civil unrests, wars, migrations, viruses). Not really. Only a little bit of misery ahead; and then, acccording to his model: Roaring Twenties reloaded: http://i1.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/ecconf-maa-clr.jpg?resize=584%2C449Well I guess it depends where you live, since every country/region has it's own cycle. There are multiple cycles that converge this time and it will be scary. For example look at the Middle East & North Africa - total chaos and destruction in the past years. They are effectively in the Dark Ages and will stay there for decades. Then you can look at EU where around 50% of the economy is governments spending (debt + taxation). Debt in most EURO countries is at 100% of GDP or more. Taxation is very high - in some countries 50% of you paycheck goes directly to your government + VAT is at 20-30%. Can you imagine how even small economic downturn can tear apart thin social justice bullshit when you are starving or cannot pay your bills. Remember that EURO countries cannot manage their level of debts via inflation as they used to do with their own currencies. EURO countries as a whole have not as much government debt and deficit as Japan and the US. Current account looks also much better than in the US. |
|
|
|
Armstrong will be wrong again. Nothing special will happen Oct 2015.
Even Armstrong said this. Don't expect some market to crash on that day, but it will be important turning point that indicates years of misery ahead (countries going bankrupt, companies going bankrupt, more civil unrests, wars, migrations, viruses). Not really. Only a little bit of misery ahead; and then, acccording to his model: Roaring Twenties reloaded: http://i1.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/ecconf-maa-clr.jpg?resize=584%2C449 |
|
|
|
interesting that rumblings of an EM crash have since intensified - the debt racked up by overseas entities priced in dollars is over $5T according to BIS (iirc)
Yup. May be it's just USD is currently being pumped so that everything else goes down compared to USD ?
Can it be that IMF and the Fed decided to sell all of it's gold, silver and other reserves to pump USD and Dow ?
If you had been reading Martin Armstrong's blog and my posts here, you'd have known for over 2 years that the dollar would becoming stronger because all the QE sent out into the world as carry trade of the ZIRP is going come rushing back to the USA (leaving the rest of the world in a short position in dollars bankrupting the emerging markets) as it will be safe haven as the rest of the world collapses. This would cause the USA to raise interest rates, thus compounding the problem for all nations except the USA. The target date was Oct 2015. Right on time... Armstrong will be wrong again. Nothing special will happen Oct 2015. |
|
|
|
That he kept it to himself and put ton of other people's money into is own pocket by this means makes it so that I have to respect his ability to correctly read the ecosystem. It only makes him more of a Lowelife in my book though.
To denounce someone without knowing anything is a case of a real Lowlife. |
|
|
|
Tribal people don't have private property rules because they don't want it and because they don't need it. They live within an egalitarian community. Nobody there produces beyond consumption needs. Private property rules are always guaranteed by organized violence of the state mafia. It is a thing of the society, which is collectivism, which is the perversion of the community .
Spare us the anti-industrialist New Left's romanticized version of primitivism. Spare me your collectivist BS, thanks. Ayn Rand is a collectivist? I don't even how you would think that.  Have you been smoking monerijuana again?  Is she an anarchist? Libertarians are not anarchists. They are aristocratic collectivists who need and call the state to defend their property. |
|
|
|
(...) I feel much less urgency going forward... unless we hit a 5K$ bubble in the next coming months  Translation:
I feel much less urgency going forward... unless something happens that happened regularly in the bitcoin environment.Great perspectives. |
|
|
|
The output of rain forest people doesn't grow because their culture haven't evolved private property rules, it is no related to debt. There are a few prerequisites needed before people can start producing economic surplus. Tribal people in rain forests haven't yet figured out how to not routinely murder each other, so learning how to not respect property is still a ways off. This link does not describe pre-patriarchal, anarchist human being. It describes the life style of gated communities within a civilized environment around it. Paleolitic, pre-patriarchal, anarchist life style was completely different. Maternal incest is what is behind the cross-cultural finding by anthropologists that “where the mother sleeps closer to the baby than to the father and uses the baby as a substitute spouse, there is more homicide and a higher frequency of war.”5 Crazy science. A 'spouse' and a 'father' did not exist in the paleolitic anarchist environment, because nobody knew the begetter. It seems that those psychologists know nothing about the former anarchist life. They are believers of the post-paleolitic monogamous joke, called 'life'. And you, Justus, are promoting such 'science'? I thought at least you are an anarchist. And now you argue against those people who have not been nationalized yet, with this pseudo science of the establishment. |
|
|
|
mythology It's ironic the degree to which your superstitions mirror the ones described by Lloyd de Mause in the link I provided. This is not mythology, this is reality: Private property rules are always guaranteed by organized violence of the state mafia.The idea of private property is a meme, it all starts when one can justify denying land to some but not others with the use of a moral code, it is effectively enforced through force, the effectiveness of the meme, is those who are deprived very often understand the meme better than they the natural order of property. Yes, new 'moral' code enforced through brute force. A post-paleolitic new moral that lead to collectivism via destruction of the nuclear community, the anarchist, self-sufficient life style. From anarchy to patri archy. A former 'austrian' who knows better since he studied history as nobody did before: "Private property as de iure institution needs a foregoing state to come into existence. The state needs foregoing power and foregoing power needs armed force. The ultimate “foundation of the economy” thus is the weapon, where possession and property are identical because the possession of it guarantees property of it. Armed force starts additional production (surplus, tribute). The first taxes are contributions of material for the production of attack weapons (copper, tin). Thus non-circulating money begins. Taxes as “census” and money are the same." As soon as defence and protection of the (property-)title power executed by armed force in war and peace needs mercenaries (soldiers from outside the power system) the one-way-money turns into circulating “genuine money” in modern sense and its material changes from weapon-fitting to precious metal and actually into any material which can be monopolized by the state. Interest also at first is the tax (census) itself. The state, that must exist before property and property-based contracts which only can be executed with use of armed force, can’t be financed out of property or income which can only appear after its existence. Therefore the state faces the problem of pre-financing itself (power, sovereignty) and it must draw on later tributes or taxes. This “interest”, which always starts with power-based and never with “private” titles is nothing but a discount, thereby rather a discount of the state-owned property (monopoly of armed force) or property rights (monopoly of taxation) than any private “property premium” or even an mysterious item that “enlarges” something." http://www.miprox.de/Wirtschaft_allgemein/Martin-Symp.pdf |
|
|
|
mythology It's ironic the degree to which your superstitions mirror the ones described by Lloyd de Mause in the link I provided. This is not mythology, this is reality: Private property rules are always guaranteed by organized violence of the state mafia.Rules doesn't need the state to emerge. Violence don't need the state to exist.
For a task of such complexity, an interdisciplinary approach is indispensable, including the following academic disciplines: * Sociobiology and sociology * Zoology and evolutionary biology * Social science *Archeology and paleoanthropology, including the evolution of the australopitheci and the several species of homo * Prehistory * Paleolithic toolculture * Paleomedicine * Paleodemography * Neolithic prehistory and the earliest dynastic history * Ethnology and the so called ethnological anthropology.
(...)
5. It is important to understand (and draw conclusions) that Paleolithic communities were egalitarian; there was no hierarchy (which is translated as „holy reign“), no domination, no rulers, no chiefs and no warfare violence, as archeology revealed and social science explains. Therefore the Paleolithic division of labour according to gender, i.e. between the female gatherers and the male hunters of a given cooperative, was a collective division of labour and not individual: A woman was not gathering for „her husband“ , and a man was not hunting for „his wife“ as is frequently misunderstood. The collective of women is gathering nutrition for the whole cooperative; her work is public work, not privatized, not domesticated or domesticised Likewise the collective of males hunt for the cooperative as a whole which is composed of the female and the male collectives. „Food- sharing“.http://gerhardbott.de/das-buch/summary-in-english.html |
|
|
|
mythology It's ironic the degree to which your superstitions mirror the ones described by Lloyd de Mause in the link I provided. This is not mythology, this is reality: Private property rules are always guaranteed by organized violence of the state mafia.Rules doesn't need the state to emerge. Violence don't need the state to exist. Private property rules do not exist in an environment beyond the society. They need the state to emerge. |
|
|
|
Tribal people don't have private property rules because they don't want it and because they don't need it. They live within an egalitarian community. Nobody there produces beyond consumption needs. Private property rules are always guaranteed by organized violence of the state mafia. It is a thing of the society, which is collectivism, which is the perversion of the community .
Spare us the anti-industrialist New Left's romanticized version of primitivism. Spare me your collectivist BS, thanks. |
|
|
|
mythology It's ironic the degree to which your superstitions mirror the ones described by Lloyd de Mause in the link I provided. This is not mythology, this is reality: Private property rules are always guaranteed by organized violence of the state mafia. |
|
|
|
Yes, but additional production is always produced via credit. A system without credit/debt does not need to grow and therefore it doesn't grow. Rain forest people are not forced to increase their 'output'. Their output does not grow in thousand years. Only nationalized people are forced to produce surplus, because they are forced to pay tribute. That's the root of credit/debt: organized violence (collectivism/society).
I am sorry but that's some weird, utterly false statements. If I am owner of my production I will produce beyond my consumption needs (that's called capital accumulation) to improve my standard of living in the future, even if I have no debt. The capital accumulation will enhance my productivity and thus allow me to produce more output. The output of rain forest people doesn't grow because their culture haven't evolved private property rules, it is no related to debt. Tribal people don't have private property rules because they don't want it and because they don't need it. They live within an egalitarian community. Private property rules are always guaranteed by organized violence of the state mafia. It is a thing of the society, which is collectivism, which is the perversion of the community . Cultural rules don't come from conscious choice. Tribal societies aren't egalitarian. Human beings are hierarchical no matter where you look. Violence exist among tribal societies, they are more violent than modern occidental societies. Pre-neolithic (pre-patriarchal) tribes were egalitarian, non violent. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=155570.msg2311504#msg2311504And this is real science: http://gerhardbott.de/das-buch/summary-in-english.html |
|
|
|
Yes, but additional production is always produced via credit. A system without credit/debt does not need to grow and therefore it doesn't grow. Rain forest people are not forced to increase their 'output'. Their output does not grow in thousand years. Only nationalized people are forced to produce surplus, because they are forced to pay tribute. That's the root of credit/debt: organized violence (collectivism/society).
I am sorry but that's some weird, utterly false statements. If I am owner of my production I will produce beyond my consumption needs (that's called capital accumulation) to improve my standard of living in the future, even if I have no debt. The capital accumulation will enhance my productivity and thus allow me to produce more output. The output of rain forest people doesn't grow because their culture haven't evolved private property rules, it is no related to debt. Tribal people don't have private property rules because they don't want it and because they don't need it. They live within an egalitarian community. Nobody there produces beyond consumption needs. Private property rules are always guaranteed by organized violence of the state mafia. It is a thing of the society, which is collectivism, which is the perversion of the community . |
|
|
|
Lying won't help you. I was reading Armstrong's blog daily as of August 2012 when (it was roughly 12,000) he clearly stated that either it would double before October 2015, or it would phase shift and align with private assets and then delay that double or triple until 2017. Indeed the USA stock market did rise to roughly 18,000 and then it phase shifted and so now we await the double or triple in 2017. Funny. He really predicted a lot of funny things: Prediction April 2013: Slovenia will collapse from a spending spree, not because it invested in Euro bonds.
(...)
It is true that Slovenia is not Cyprus. It is worse.http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/10720Reality 2014:  |
|
|
|
It is about a majority of brain cells and intellectual authority. The value of money comes from future economic output. The majority of entities that will produce the most economic value in the future is the majority that matters. In many cases, people who have accumulated a large amount of money in the present have done so because they have a high capacity to produce economic value and so in their case they contribute significantly to the economic majority. This is not true in all cases, however. Someone who obtained large amounts of money through luck or via processes which are not repeatable in the future don't contribute as much to the economic majority as their current holdings would suggest. This is the primary flaw behind who try to frame debates in terms of "rich" vs "poor". They aren't being sufficiently precise. Yes, but additional production is always produced via credit. A system without credit/debt does not need to grow and therefore it doesn't grow. Rain forest people are not forced to increase their 'output'. Their output does not grow in thousand years. Only nationalized people are forced to produce surplus, because they are forced to pay tribute. That's the root of credit/debt: organized violence (collectivism/society). |
|
|
|
[extensive wailing]
[gnashing of teeth] The 1MB "short term hack" got Bitcoin to where it is today. Go ahead and make all the noise you want. Stamp your feet and hold your breath. Enlist Reddit as your personal army. Issue threats. Spin up XT nodes. It won't make a difference; the block size is staying at 1MB for the foreseeable future. Nobody except your fellow Gavinistas cares how many times you fatuously repeat 'ZOMG TEMPORARY 1MB LIMIT IS TEMPORARY RAISE IT NOW.' It won't stay, because the Gavinistas are the majority and you represent a minority. Since when Bitcoin is about majority?! It is about a majority of brain cells and intellectual authority. |
|
|
|
[extensive wailing]
[gnashing of teeth] The 1MB "short term hack" got Bitcoin to where it is today. Go ahead and make all the noise you want. Stamp your feet and hold your breath. Enlist Reddit as your personal army. Issue threats. Spin up XT nodes. It won't make a difference; the block size is staying at 1MB for the foreseeable future. Nobody except your fellow Gavinistas cares how many times you fatuously repeat 'ZOMG TEMPORARY 1MB LIMIT IS TEMPORARY RAISE IT NOW.' It won't stay, because the Gavinistas are the majority and you represent a minority. |
|
|
|
I will delete this post. This is perhaps my last FYI to try to help the fools here. The catalysts. Some years ago I independently happenstanced on (discovered) Martin Armstrong's 78.9 (79) year cycle of real estate (which I also correlated to technological unemployment cycles). So when I later discovered Armstrong's cycle models and that he had back tested them to the Athenian empire and before (even as far back as Mesopotamia), I'm keen to accept that such a cycle does exist. Armstrong is the largest hedge fund manager in history, formerly managing $3 trillion in Japanese sovereign funds before he got unintentionally entangled in the USA bankster's involved in the LTCM and Russian bonds scam via Republic bank which involved some of the funds he was managing. It is with this wealth that he compiled the massive $billion (in today's money) historical economics and natural phenomenon database that enable his supercomputer system to correlate and find these patterns and repeating cycles.
It is with this system that he has been accurately predicting everything since the 1980s without fail. In fact, I have predicted the past 4 major moves in the Bitcoin price employing his model, including my recent prediction in May that BTC would rise to $315 in June and July, then crash back down to below $150 for the Octoberish bottom.
This is it folks. Cash is king. Get out while you still can. This may be my last warning. Your prediction will be wrong. And I think his prediction will be correct. Anonymint has pin pointed the last 2 years or so of bitcoin movement better than anyone I know on this forum. With his help I sold before the dip to $150 and re-bought and sold again yesterday at $315. I think he should get much more credit. His macro economic predictions are probably also going to be correct. On the basis of Armstrongs models (who has been consistently correct for decades) I think it is very likely we have some very dark times ahead. Armstrongs models ... http://www.silverdoctors.com/martin-armstrong-the-stock-market-will-double-by-2015/ |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
