My theory is that it was the reason for the rally in 2013. My model is following - overall there is a balance between the money that flows into bitcoin world and the BTC produced - the halving disturbed that balance. The effect was not immediate - because there is some stickiness in the price (the mechanism for that sticiness is quite complex - but it includes 'pricing in the effect' and also standard 'getting used to the price') - but over a few months the imbalance grew so much that it suddenly broke that stickiness and bubbled in the rally. Pricing in is probably not so efficient when you have something that accumulates over time - instead of a one-time event.
exactly. the expected supply shortage was probably "priced in" by the time halving happened, but that pricing in process (people hoarding coins and sitting on them waiting for future growth) also have led to growing imbalance in supply-demand resulting in a closed feedback loop which unrolled during 2013. i.e. the market's pricing in have seriously underestimated the effect of the halving together with higher demand. maybe next time it will be different. Next time won't be different. Traders will expect again that it is priced in. But it isn't. |
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Capitalism and Socialism (which is collectivism) are unnatural rise and fall constructs. Beyond collectivism you'll find self-sufficiency (anarchy), which was the natural state of human being for a million and more years. Civilization (collectivism) is only a short anomaly within the history.
Do you have some good reading about anarchist, because I'd like how they think to solve the problem of property without giving away to a central power the monopoly of violence. If state does not exist, and I consider something to be my property, but you don't agree. What settle the dispute ? Historically, before (and beyond) the state, there was self-sufficiency (no trade). But self-sufficiency is only possible within a nuclear community. Patriarchy (organized violence, state and church) destroyed those communities 10'000 years ago. The best book I know is in German. Gerhard Bott: Die Erfindung der Götter. Summary in english: http://gerhardbott.de/das-buch/summary-in-english.html |
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Capitalism and Socialism (which is collectivism) are unnatural rise and fall constructs. Beyond collectivism you'll find self-sufficiency (anarchy), which was the natural state of human being for a million and more years. Civilization (collectivism) is only a short anomaly within the history.
Collectivism is the opposite of individualism. We might actually progress toward individualism as the technology progress enough. No, collectivism is the perversion of the self-sufficient collectiv. Individualism is only possible within collectivism. In the nature (rain forest, arctic tundra) beyond the state you'll find neither collectivism nor individualism. Both are against human nature. I kind of agree that both extremes are both against human nature and I also think unhealthy. So how would you characterize the middle ground - tribalism? Yes. Tribalism is anarchy. Collectivism is patriarchy. |
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Nothing new for us, but glad to see it on a TED talk.
I often try to explain to family and friends that it is mathematically impossible for everyone to pay back all their bank loans, since ($Money_Created + $Interest) will always be greater than $Money_Created.
You should stop trying because you are wrong. It doesn't matter than MONEY + INTEREST > MONEY. As long as the value of all the assets is greater than the value of all the debts, then all debts can be repaid. Can not. As soon as debt is being repaid, the value of the assets collapses. Capitalism is Debitism. On the other hand, there might be an issue with the U.S. paying off all of its debt because dollars represent that debt and extinguishing the debt would eliminate nearly all of the dollars in existence.
Yes. No debt - no money. |
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Capitalism and Socialism (which is collectivism) are unnatural rise and fall constructs. Beyond collectivism you'll find self-sufficiency (anarchy), which was the natural state of human being for a million and more years. Civilization (collectivism) is only a short anomaly within the history.
Collectivism is the opposite of individualism. We might actually progress toward individualism as the technology progress enough. No, collectivism is the perversion of the self-sufficient collectiv. Individualism is only possible within collectivism. In the nature (rain forest, arctic tundra) beyond the state you'll find neither collectivism nor individualism. Both are against human nature. |
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Capitalism and Socialism (which is collectivism) are unnatural rise and fall constructs. Beyond collectivism you'll find self-sufficiency (anarchy), which was the natural state of human being for a million and more years. Civilization (collectivism) is only a short anomaly within the history.
This is pretty dumb as an argument. None of the shit we do is "natural" if you start deconstructing stuff with such a mindset. Not even taking an actual shit is natural the way we do it now. For millions of years before civilization taking shits consisted on going on a forest and wiping your ass with a plant. So as you can see, unnatural things can be better than natural things. No, it's not better. All that stuff leads to more and more suicides. The state, I call it, where all are poison-drinkers, the good and the bad: the state, where all lose themselves, the good and the bad: the state, where the slow suicide of all — is called "life." Thus Spoke Zarathustra |
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Capitalism and Socialism (which is collectivism) are unnatural rise and fall constructs. Beyond collectivism you'll find self-sufficiency (anarchy), which was the natural state of human being for a million and more years. Civilization (collectivism) is only a short anomaly within the history.
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I got that. But are they going to confirmed exchange addresses? Otherwise i can't see a connection with the price drop. |
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The intent is to withdraw 4150 BTC from our exodus address within the next 48 hours. We reserve the right to withdraw up to 850 BTC more if needed before the end of the 42 day duration of the sale, but at this point it is likely that the remainder of the BTC in the address will remain unused until the sale ends. Of this amount, 2650 BTC will be distributed to pay for loans for prior expenses. Individuals who have contributed loans to the project will receive repayment in BTC directly; “we” will not be selling any portion of this 2650 BTC on exchanges ourselves, although individuals may choose to independently convert the BTC that they receive into fiat after the fact.https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/08/08/announcement-on-planned-exodus-withdrawal/
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ppl ain't happy, and rightfully so. The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August was at 79.2, down from 81.8 in July. This was the lowest reading since last November and below the consensus forecast of 82.3:  Peak optimism on 1/1/2000. Coincidence? Njet. |
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i cut loose at $630 and would not buy any more, ask fonsie, i remember that he was yelling for "cheap" coins at $540?  but i don't think he bought a single one cause he acts like a fooling ponzi scheme scammer Prove it, or you're just another lying scammer. Scammer. And a Spammer. Spamming all threads with the same shit. |
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so, no new money, everyone is cashing out, what will be the result of this? look at the ponzi scheme
"Everyone is cashing out". The same old noob shit since years. The opposite is true. Most bitcoiners were never cashing out, and that's the reason why we've seen two steps up for each step down, regardless how much of the same BS those noobs dumped into this forum since years. |
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Every time I see this thread and then watch BTC tank 10%+ in 2 or 3 days makes me laugh. I have over 30oz of gold coins and would buy 30 more before I buy 5 BTC. I question how many people here own 1/10th of that amount of BTC Gold has been up $15 the last weeks. And good ol bitcoin, tanking again, no surprises there. But oh yah, it will be $1500 again by January. Thats a good one. Maybe more like $150 per BTC there you experts. LOLZ People here make me  everytime i see ppl like you enter this thread and scream buy gold, i laugh. b/c i think about how i sold out all my silver starting @ 48 and gold @ 1750 to then turn around and start plowing that into BTC starting @ 1.60. so there. edit: it wasn't a linear sequential sell then buy process, so don't go back and line up prices with dates as they won't match up. it was a conscious decision made to execute a transitional strategy at opportune times starting in March 2011 when i finally wrapped my head around Bitcoin after 2 mo of non-stop research starting in Jan 2011. i have the advantage of having lived and breathed pretty much the entire life history of this ongoing up and down transition which gives me some perspective. sure i could start being very wrong, but i don't think so. Don't worry people like that are only looking at the short term. Bitcoin is waaaay up % wise over the past 3 years as compared to gold. No contest.  |
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these are actually 2 very important graphs.
back in 2007, i recognized that the ability of the banking elite to encumber the average US citizen with the biggest purchase in their lifetimes was coming to an end. ever since that time, the Fed has more than quintupled the monetary base to support all sorts of bad debt instruments doled out to just about everyone except these same average US citizens. it's clear from these graphs the jig is up. the avg person has caught on and are not participating in the necessary Ponzi scheme which is required to keep these Ponzi assets pumped up. since the banksters can't rely on encumbering the avg citizen anymore, they've turned to gov't/Fed bailouts and free money to keep the game going. when we start getting sovereign defaults, a fresh crisis will arise. Argentina may represent that first salvo. get yourselves into a digital bearer instrument asap. and i don't mean USD's.
There is only one (1!) economist on this planet who predicted how the endgame will look like: "Heute ist weltweit Bagehot total: Alle Staaten werden für alle Staaten, alle Notenbanken für alle Notenbanken haften, einschließlich Währungsfonds und Weltbank und vielen anderen internationalen Institutionen. Und alle Staaten werden für alle Banken geradestehen, aber auch alle Notenbanken für alle Staaten und alle Staaten für alle Notenbanken. Alle, alle, alle werden für alle, alle, alle dasein. Und alle wissen, dass keinem von allen etwas passieren darf, weil dann allen etwas zustößt." Paul C. Martin 1987 |
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What we see with government debt as in Argentina, is that after a default, the market "forgives" a county, and start lending again. Then we have the same thing going.
Analysis: Government debt is a pyramid scheme, ...
Civilization (governed human beings) is a pyramid scheme. |
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How did you money from LIBOR manipulation? Are you a bank? no, indirect losses via stocks and bond shorts. you have to realize that in a manipulated market like this dependent on Fed liquidity, ALL assets begin to correlate as 1. everything gets pumped up into bubble territory. as one who USED to believe in free markets (naively) i, and many others, ... Yes, naively. The 'free market' is an oxymoron. The market exists since human beings are not free anymore. Free homines sapientes were self-sufficient and not dependent on a market, on which they were forced to produce surplus, which is used to tribute the mafia (church and state). http://cdn.preterhuman.net/texts/wars_and_weapons/us_weapon_export_guide/Machttheorie-Martin-Symp.pdfBitcoin is likely the only free mkt left in the world. which is what i like. Yes: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470593.0 |
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How did you money from LIBOR manipulation? Are you a bank? no, indirect losses via stocks and bond shorts. you have to realize that in a manipulated market like this dependent on Fed liquidity, ALL assets begin to correlate as 1. everything gets pumped up into bubble territory. as one who USED to believe in free markets (naively) i, and many others, ... Yes, naively. The 'free market' is an oxymoron. The market exists since human beings are not free anymore. Free homines sapientes were self-sufficient and not dependent on a market, on which they were forced to produce surplus, which is used to tribute the mafia (church and state). "Private property as de iure institution needs a foregoing state to come into existence. The state needs foregoing power and foregoing power needs armed force. The ultimate “foundation of the economy” thus is the weapon, where possession and property are identical because the possession of it guarantees property of it. Armed force start s additional production (surplus, tribute). The first taxes are contributions of material for the production of attack weapons (copper, tin). Thus non-circulating money begins. Taxes as “census” and money are the same." http://cdn.preterhuman.net/texts/wars_and_weapons/us_weapon_export_guide/Machttheorie-Martin-Symp.pdf |
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Off chain activity is increasing whereby only settlement and clearing functions are done in the blockchain ... think Coinbase, how many actual TX do they do on the chain and how many internally? Okay. Also interesting: Half of all transactions are 'my-wallet' transactions at blockchain.info https://blockchain.info/de/charts/my-wallet-n-tx |
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