So Risto. If I understand you correctly you now think the failure risk of bitcoins is 50%? Sounds much more reasonable to me than the dramatically smaller risk for failure numbers you were speaking of half a year ago. Does this have to do with Monero entering the stage and the fact that you see chances growing for alternative coins or does it have to do with your view of bitcoin itself?
Yes, if "failure" is defined to mean "will not rise to $5000+ ever". Still if the probability for rising such is 50%, it is an incredibly good buy, and this is what I have been saying all along. I appreciate your posts, but did you know, that in reality there is no such thing as a 'probability'? The so-called "Master Argument" was apparently first formulated clearly by Diodorus. He argued that the actual is the only possible. He observed that if something in the future is not going to happen, it was therefore true in the past that it would not happen.
Modern philosophers like J. J. C. Smart like to think that the future is "already out there" in the relativistic space-time continuum of the "block universe."
Modern determinists/compatibilists on free will like to argue that just as the past cannot be changed, so the future cannot be changed. "Change it from what to what?," says Daniel Dennett. |
|
|
|
Halving date sooner than estimated. http://bitcoinclock.com/The clock is limping behind the time. One year ago, it showed end of october 2016. |
|
|
|
A 'Murder Based Society' is a tautology. The society (collectivism/state and church/patri archy) is per se murder based; from the very beginning. That's the differcence to the community ( anarchy). |
|
|
|
of cause bitcoin is going down!
Of cause? The more such illiterate fools we find in the bear camp, unable to deliver any kind of analysis, the better for bitcoin. |
|
|
|
Wences Casares Says gold is valued as its scarce. There are far rarer elements, this is the not its most importance feature, it has many more. Yes, Gold was scarce because the Organized Violence (State and Church) declared it as the thing in which the people were taxed. The Organized Violence needed the metal to produce the weapon to organize the violence against the people. http://www.elliott-waves.de/free/tagung2/pcm/GewaltmetallGold.pdf  |
|
|
|
The implications of the above illustrated display of the penultimate power of marginalism have disturbed me for some time (since 2007).  Oh wise and more-knowing cypherdoc, what shall we do at Zero Hour? Head to backwoods Idaho? Trade silver for gunmetal, brass, and lead? Join the Masons? Smoke a fat joint? Take some BTC profit? All of the above? Another desturbing chart: http://photos4.meetupstatic.com/photos/event/6/2/9/f/event_925247.jpeg |
|
|
|
"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid.... Indirect trade is more effective, but barter happens all the time. A merger where shareholders of the bought company are paid with shares in the new company, is barter. 'Barter never happened' means: the basis of an economy was never ever barter, it's always debt (fulfilling debt contracts). Silly me, I thought #barter never happened" meant that barter never happened. No, it's clear that barter occasionally happens, but it's not the foundation and the motor of the economy, which is fulfilling debt contracts at maturity date (including interest on top of it), which enforces you to produce surplus by encreasing productivity. |
|
|
|
I do not disagree that deflation is a real risk (or that it is happening now), i disagree only that it is the expanding money supply in the form of debt that is the reason for it.
It is the reason. The higher the Debt/GDP ratio (that caused inflation) - the nearer the tipping point that leads to a reversal. Debt can't be created fast enough anymore at a debt level of 4 x GDP. What he's missing is that the ever expanding debt is preferentially being extended to the Treasury market, ie gvt, versus the private sector by speculators looking for risk free return and leading to severe misallocations of capital and even suppression of free markets. This is deflationary. Yes. The higher the total debt level, the smaller the ability (of the private sector) to create additional debt (which is money). Additional debt (that increased faster than productivity) is suffering a diminishing return, and this line with direction zero correlates with the inflation rate:  |
|
|
|
I do not disagree that deflation is a real risk (or that it is happening now), i disagree only that it is the expanding money supply in the form of debt that is the reason for it.
It is the reason. The higher the Debt/GDP ratio (that caused inflation) - the nearer the tipping point that leads to a reversal. Debt can't be created fast enough anymore at a debt level of 4 x GDP. |
|
|
|
"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid.... Indirect trade is more effective, but barter happens all the time. A merger where shareholders of the bought company are paid with shares in the new company, is barter. 'Barter never happened' means: the basis of an economy was never ever barter, it's always debt (fulfilling debt contracts). |
|
|
|
"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid.... thats not stupid thats just true think about it, if there was a lazy ass in the trib that called everyone names and never did anything, you think poeple would feel the owe him anything ever? so why would the help him out and "Barter", nope, its always been, poeple keeping track of who owes who. this is just how humans interact, Barter never happened, deal with it.  its a good point he makes. Yes, I fully agree with him. Barter was common between tribes, not so much within them. It still is. It wasn't. They were self-sufficient. |
|
|
|
"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid.... thats not stupid thats just true think about it, if there was a lazy ass in the trib that called everyone names and never did anything, you think poeple would feel the owe him anything ever? so why would the help him out and "Barter", nope, its always been, poeple keeping track of who owes who. this is just how humans interact, Barter never happened, deal with it. its a good point he makes. But first and foremost it was the community and yes communities were debt based. Yes, human life can be called 'debitism' (Dr. Paul C. Martin) from the very beginning. That worked perfectly in a world of communities. That's the difference to the society, which is the perversion of the community. A society needs organized violence (state and church) to handle the debt. |
|
|
|
I have a problem with this debt creation means deflation meme.
In a restricted economic model, where we have some actors and some money, the value of each unit of money depends only on the actors willingness to hold. The demand and supply sides consists of the same people, where demand is the wish to hold more, and supply is the less willingness to hold.
Extending this with debt, a debt which is safe and of static volume, extends the money supply. The debt is more like money if it is transferable. If a debt is completely safe, have very low interest and is due very long time in the future, and is transferable, it is in practise equivalent to money.
In all cases up till now in the model, the money supply is static and we should have stable price level on goods in the market.
Extending the model again, now with an expanding money supply in the form of base money and debt, which is the current situation in the world, value of the money unit should fall, as the supply is now the willingness to hold less plus the new money, demand being the willingness to hold is the same.
Now the big unknown, hitherto considered static, is the willingness to hold. This is of course not static in the real world, as it depends on the actors life situation and the world situation, including the important prospect of the future value of the money. Basically, if there is an expectation that the money will fall in value, people will hold less money and hold long lasting, transferable goods instead. But this will only accelerate the fall of the value of the money, it will not be an upward pressure of the value of the money unit (otherwise called deflation).
I do not disagree that deflation is a real risk (or that it is happening now), i disagree only that it is the expanding money supply in the form of debt that is the reason for it.
In my view, it is a collapse of debt that is the reason for a possible deflation. A collapse of debt will happen when the market actors consider the risk of lending too high, or when other risks make people hoard wealth in the form of long lasting consumer goods like houses and cars, paid not with loans but paid for by less consumption of other goods.
The 'money supply' is only a fraction of total debt (USA 60 trillion). As long as debt creation in an economy is faster than productivity, you'll have inflation. As soon as the total debt sum doesn't increase as fast as productivity, you'll have deflation (Japan first and now the rest of the western world following). Good point. Increasing productivity has been known to cause deflation since at least Adam Smith (1776). I still don't see how collapse of debt (which reduces the demand for money because now that debt isn't going to be repaid) causes deflation. If you have to make debt payments, you will try make sure you have enough dollars to pay them. This is why debt increases demand for dollars. Again, yes initial issuance is short term inflationary, but I don't see how you can claim it is inflationary overall. Imagine that 99 pct of the 60 trillions of debt would be wiped out. That means that the other side of the balance sheet would be wiped out as well. The price level in the economy would return to that level on which it had been as the total debt sum was at 0.6 trillions. |
|
|
|
"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid.... thats not stupid thats just true think about it, if there was a lazy ass in the trib that called everyone names and never did anything, you think poeple would feel the owe him anything ever? so why would the help him out and "Barter", nope, its always been, poeple keeping track of who owes who. this is just how humans interact, Barter never happened, deal with it. its a good point he makes. Yes, I fully agree with him. |
|
|
|
"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid....
|
|
|
|
I have a problem with this debt creation means deflation meme.
In a restricted economic model, where we have some actors and some money, the value of each unit of money depends only on the actors willingness to hold. The demand and supply sides consists of the same people, where demand is the wish to hold more, and supply is the less willingness to hold.
Extending this with debt, a debt which is safe and of static volume, extends the money supply. The debt is more like money if it is transferable. If a debt is completely safe, have very low interest and is due very long time in the future, and is transferable, it is in practise equivalent to money.
In all cases up till now in the model, the money supply is static and we should have stable price level on goods in the market.
Extending the model again, now with an expanding money supply in the form of base money and debt, which is the current situation in the world, value of the money unit should fall, as the supply is now the willingness to hold less plus the new money, demand being the willingness to hold is the same.
Now the big unknown, hitherto considered static, is the willingness to hold. This is of course not static in the real world, as it depends on the actors life situation and the world situation, including the important prospect of the future value of the money. Basically, if there is an expectation that the money will fall in value, people will hold less money and hold long lasting, transferable goods instead. But this will only accelerate the fall of the value of the money, it will not be an upward pressure of the value of the money unit (otherwise called deflation).
I do not disagree that deflation is a real risk (or that it is happening now), i disagree only that it is the expanding money supply in the form of debt that is the reason for it.
In my view, it is a collapse of debt that is the reason for a possible deflation. A collapse of debt will happen when the market actors consider the risk of lending too high, or when other risks make people hoard wealth in the form of long lasting consumer goods like houses and cars, paid not with loans but paid for by less consumption of other goods.
The 'money supply' is only a fraction of total debt (USA 60 trillion). As long as debt creation in an economy is faster than productivity, you'll have inflation. As soon as the total debt sum doesn't increase as fast as productivity, you'll have deflation (Japan first and now the rest of the western world following). |
|
|
|
Capitalism and Socialism (which is collectivism) are unnatural rise and fall constructs. Beyond collectivism you'll find self-sufficiency (anarchy), which was the natural state of human being for a million and more years. Civilization (collectivism) is only a short anomaly within the history.
Do you have some good reading about anarchist, because I'd like how they think to solve the problem of property without giving away to a central power the monopoly of violence. If state does not exist, and I consider something to be my property, but you don't agree. What settle the dispute ? Historically, before (and beyond) the state, there was self-sufficiency (no trade). But self-sufficiency is only possible within a nuclear community. Patriarchy (organized violence, state and church) destroyed those communities 10'000 years ago. The best book I know is in German. Gerhard Bott: Die Erfindung der Götter. Summary in english: http://gerhardbott.de/das-buch/summary-in-english.htmlThere are still a very small number of self sufficient communities in Africa. The problem with these kinds of communities is that their standard of living is much lower then even the poorest parts of the world. I think the reason for this is because when trade between countries and communities is done it is possible to realize efficiencies that are not possible in small groups when only one or two people is doing a certain task. Not just efficiencies of scale, when trade happens freely, everybody/country does what they do best. This results in maximum output. Tribalism in African community can not reach economic of scale because they close down the gate to outsiders. This is also true in Hindu and Muslim societies and the reason for backwardness. European countries and US letting "close culture" in not only create a problem for the local community in the long term. Refusal to assimilate will also create tension to a diverse country. There can't be true and healthy tribalism anymore within a world of collectivism (capitalism/socialism/feudalism/nationalism/globalism). |
|
|
|
It's the money velocity that has collapsed ... and is still in vicious downtrend. Monetising the debt directly is a futile attempt to boost money velocity by the wizards of fiat.
The two biggest stories of the week from the elite are that USA (White House) is considering bombing both sides in a far off war ... (suspected insanity) and that the CFR suggests to print money directly into householder accounts aka helicopter money drop (patently insane).
History will look back askance on these times with pity.
the collapse in velocity and interest rates is a strong signal that deflation is winning. no matter how much money the Fed prints, it can't force ppl to spend. the Fed's complicity with the US Treasury to buy bonds over the last 34 yrs has caused a steady drop in interest rates. this drop in rates has caused periods of euphoria and over investment in certain sectors of the economy but overall what it is causing is deflation. the Treasury market, the largest market in the world next to forex, is continually front run by speculators searching for risk free profits in the form of ever rising bond prices. speculators know that the Fed will be there to pay them a higher price for the bonds they just bought from front running auctions. they know that ultimately in the case of a problem, bonds will be backstopped by the public either in the form of taxes or further money printing. the Treasury market is a veritable Black Hole. stop and think for a moment of the Ponzi scheme at work. Fed uses fresh USD to buy UST's from gvt and turns around and sticks those UST's on the asset side of it's balance as backing for those same USD's it just printed. gvt turns around and uses the USD's obtained from issuing UST's and wastes that money on welfare projects and warfare. they are much worse at allocating capital compared to the free market. when gvt needs to redeem the UST's, it just issues even more UST's for more USD's from Fed and the cycle spirals downward in terms of real productivity. this is deflation and we're seeing it in a plunging monetary velocity and negative interest rates in Europe. of course, certain sectors of the economy can experience price inflation at different times like the stock mkt currently just to fool you that hyperinflation is just around the corner. the noughts saw commodities rise along with gold. student loans are at all time highs. but these are just distractions to the main dynamic in play; the US Treasury/Fed ponzi dynamic using USD's and UST's to cause inadvertent deflation. real productivity suffers and the Fed is pushing on a string. for more on this read the writings of Professor Antal Fekete. How do you think this will end? It will end as a cycle of a collectivist society (tautology!) always ends; in destruction and desolation: http://electrojelly.wordpress.com/2011/07/21/course-of-empire-by-thomas-cole/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Course_of_EmpireBut as we all know: Endings are just beginnings: Janet Brown (Margaret Thatcher) Minute 54:20 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCB3i83oeLcHello everyone. I suppose you think that nothing much is happening at the moment. Ah-ha-ha-ha-ha. Well, that's what I want to talk to you all about; endings. Now, endings normally happen at the end. But as we all know, endings are just beginnings. You know, once these things really get started, it's jolly hard to stop them again. However, as we have all come this far, I think, under the circumstances, the best solution is that we all just keep going. Let's keep this going in sight, never an ending. Let's remember that this world wants fresh beginnings. I feel here, in this country, and throughout the world, we are crying out for beginnings, beginnings. We never want to hear this word "endings". I know we all want to sit down. I know you want to take it easy. Of course we're looking for the good. Of course we're looking for the fresh start.... |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
