The great Edward50: What surprises me about the bitcoin price is how well it is holding around $13 dollars. I guess most bitcoin holders are rich tech savy people, who would rather sit with their coins to their death rather than sell them.
This is probably the reason why the price has not fallen. I can see this going on for a while, and bitcoin holders have already tasted the $20+ dollar range. Most are insane and blind enough in the idea to think each bitcoin is worth a small country. And shit, if I actually owned even 1 bitcoin, maybe I would be insane and blind also. Who does not want to be filthy rich.
Scaracity and hoarding is the only tool that bitcoin bulls have.
Most people interested in buying know that the bitcoin is not worth even worth $13 dollars a coin. They will be much more careful with their dollars.
So the price will be up to the horders not giving in and selling too cheaply. It will not be up to people actually needing or demanding bitcoin for any useful purpose.
I say in the end the price will be lower because every day there are still thousands of bitcoins being produced. With each passing day it will be a test on how long can you hold out when it becomes more obvious that the price is not going any higher. When I wrote this above it was in 2011, the price was $13 and from that point it fell all the way down to $2.01. In 2013 the price was still $13. I would like to say that I was almost always correct in my predictions. During my most active time in 2011 early 2012, I watched the price head from $30 to $2.01. I was actually online at the time on mt gox watching it at 2.01. My prediction was it was going to stabilize around $1.00. I based my price on the fact that it was just pennies not months before it hit $30. Many people sitting on thousands of coins at that time. Plus I based it on many other factors also. When it did not go down to $1.00 like I expected I figured I would wait for it to stabilize and after a few weeks it actually rose higher than $3.00 or so. I was kind of pissed that it didn't fall to $1.00 so I just stopped dealing with bitcoin all together. Removed the bookmarks from my web browser so not to remind me of it. It was stupid that I did that. During 2012 and early 2013 I have been meaning to get involved with it again in the low double digits, but I just put it off. I have been making lots of Fiat dollars during this time also. Another stupid thing was I was sitting on so much cash and have been thinking about how to invest it. I did not even think about bitcoin at that time. But lets face it. Bitcion was around $12 dollars in early 2013. I wouldn't call that such a great rise from where we were at in 2011. When I wrote that comment about $13 being ridiculous in 2011 and it would go lower, well, 2013 it was still $13. SO I was right during that time. I wasn't around in 2013 to see how things have progressed to say if I was bullish or bearish at that time and I would have been bullish because $13 was a stable price. I am sure in most of 2012 bitcoin could have been bought for well under $13. So I was right when I made those comments in 2011 and early 2012. Right after it rebounded from $2.01 I stopped being active and never wrote after that point because I missed my buy in. I was going to invest bit at $1.00.You sure missed buy in, thats about the only thing I agree with you about. |
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Up we go. I thought Sunday was usually a down day.
It's not Sunday everywhere  Never heard, that corrections only happen on weekends. Thatīs new one. |
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Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet. I have different information about GS and Bitcoin. Ok. So where are we going from here? Did you call $400 as the bottom of this down cycle? Or are you really holding fiat to 2016? dude just stop, understand there people will have money and they need to lose a large portion of that money so the market can move on Ok, I fear i am coming across of some sort of random antagonist in this thread. So let me clarify... I have read back on all of masterluc's analysis and for the most part its highly impressive, cohesive and has tracked my sentiments much more time than not. So mad respect there. However, his latest prediction that we are entering a multi-year bear market is based on the EW theory that he is extrapolating on a logarithmic chart since the beginning of BTC on the markets. Luc's short term predictions are awesome. But here is what I believe is happening with this long term prediction. First, we have to suppose that the EW theory is the correct theory to judge BTC long term growth chart. It very well may not be. In fact, there is a really good chance that its not. There is a strong argument that the EW theory for BTC and the S-curve adoption graph are incompatible with each other. So, I think what is happening with masterluc, is that he is stuck to a EW theory. Now that theory says we are going down for a long time. This flies in the face of the adoption curve and what we are seeing in the REAL world with adoption, eco-system, etc. So Luc has to justify a possible scenario that would make this seemingly ridiculous theory seem plausible. So he answers to this that the stock market is a bubble and when that pops it will spiral effect BTC to the downside. Although this statement flies in the face of what we have seen from investment commodities during stock market down turns. Now, I guess if the entire US system failed then BTC could be down for several years. But suggesting that the US economy and/or the stock market will create the EW theory scenario is, in my opinion, simply a concoction of masterlucs imagination. Itīs funny, that you are trying to deconstruct thinking of another person to prove him wrong, when he was repeatedly proven right by the market. Unlike you. |
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 remember those days with $150 strong hold? here comes the $700 You are around for only two months? |
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amazing how pissed people are  I noticed too. Anyway, ML originally suggested, that we might see top between 2-4k before Christmas. What I do know, that I am not going all in before New Years Eve. This entire situation seems awfully familiar. |
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Best time we have had to buy in a long time.
\because the price is where it was three days ago?  |
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You should read rpietila's posts...
Market will not "crash". But it will serioulsly correct (-75%) when (and only after) it has grown more than 50% per day for at least 2 days.
Maybe it will crash from $2000 to $500.
Maybe it will crash from $5000 to $1000.
Maybe it will crash from $10000 to $2000.
Nobody knows.
Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...
75% is a crash and will never happen again unless bitcoin also fails. There are too many people now to absorb the large dollar swings that whales could manage. I think > 33% will never happen again. So far, I've been right. You do realize that Second Market is buying about ⅓ of the miners' new coins every day singlehandedly, right? Wait until we get a couple more hedge fund managers that want their fund to look really good. Pretty soon they'll be buying MORE than the mined coins every day. EDIT: I wouldnīt trust an investor, who uses word "never" in his prediction. "So far" since when? Since april? We have seen 50% swing as late as three weeks ago and that was merely a correction. However I completely agree, that people, especially new ones will buy more coins, than is mined right now. Otherwise end game and bubble pop wouldnīt be possible so soon |
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Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price... That's not true, only if you assume all newly mined coins are also liquidated each day. Are you aware, that especially around Christmas the amount needed may be much, MUCH higher. Some miners have social lives too. Others may have been waiting for ROI on their new mining rigs. |
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In the previous bubbles, daily growth in the final two days reached 20%. So either market will reach the top sooner or bubble will be even bigger (3-4k/BTC?) and pop around holidays.
EDIT: Yes, you are completely right. 2000 this month is wayyy higher, than is reasonable. Even considering exponential growth curve.
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There will be diffusion over time. Coins get spread out faster than they get accumulated. We will not see any 100K accumulations added to the list in the future. We probably will never see a new holder of 10,000 emerge.
Eventually, the only hoards over 1000 will be in wallets with lost private keys. Even billionaires have to pay bills.
Did that work out for gold? I am with guy, who mentioned Pareto principle. People, who are already rich will get richer. |
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Panic Selling incoming from weak hands I guess Then you are definition of full retard and I mean it. If anyone on this forum has reliable analysis track record, itīs Masterluc. |
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Any thoughts on this count?  Interesting, I saw similar analysis yersteday. What is timescale, Han? |
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I think it is a bit ludicrous to compare prize per coin. It is not a fair comparison. Better is to compare price for 1/21million of future market cap, so since litecoin has 4 times as many coins, their "normalized price" would be
27*4=108, and for feathercoin with 16 times as many coins, the normalized prize would be 0.87*16=14.
EDIT: Proof of stake mining has to be treated differently though since it doesn't dilute you.
How can you predict price of single product, if you donīt know the end result (cryptocurrency market cap) or even timescale? Also no mention of inflation (six times higher in Litecoin, than in Bitcoin). |
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None of them.
Invest in bitcoins, not the poor-man's clones.
Ripple is a "scam" and it's just semantics to argue that "scam" is not exactly the correct word to use. Ripple was started to make the people who own Ripple very rich. The fact that the XRP market cap is far higher than Bitcoin should be a giant red flag for those of you who are considering putting money into Ripple.
Oh, here we go So Bitcoin was designed to make people, who own it poor (unlike Ripple, huh)? No, ripple doesnīt have bigger market cap, than bitcoin, it never had one either. There are seven billion of them in circulation making current market cap 350 million USD or about 3% of Bitcoin market. Litecoin is actually still much bigger. If you are reffering to coinmarketcap website, then those guys over there cant count. You dont calculate Bitcoin market cap with coins that werent mined, USD market with dollars, that werent printed (atleast virtually) and Ripple market with XRP, that werenīt released. And no, you cant just walk to RippleLabs offices with fiat in your pockets and "buy" more XRP. Iīdo that, if it was this simple. |
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Actually, all your questions are answered in the white papers. You know ever since Ripple went opensource. So, you can make your own version, if you think it is easy money for developers Cap of 100 billion XRP is hardcoded into the system (but there are only seven in circulation right now, I give you that), so ripple will have massive advantage over any fiat currency as far as gaining value. However, nobody ever said, that it will replace Bitcoin or gold as store of value. That would be bad idea as deflationary, precious metals are terrible means of exchange for consumer society such as ours. Like I said before, I see a point in the system as it adds actual value (you too, cause you choose solely ripple to attack, not all those bit-clones, unlike me you just chose position of fear). I also see added value in another altcoin, that isnt finished yet, so I wont mention it here. By the way, if you hadnt been lazy (all your criticism about deposits being complicated), you could have tens of thousands bitcoins back in 2010. You know, when there was no Bitstamp and coins were still cheap. Deposits/Withdrawals to Ripple will be even faster, when first banks start to function like gateways. Like they already do with paypal. No middle man, just bank account and your web based client. Your average Joes dream come true. Bitcoin+ Ripple+ One other alt to be finished soon...+ Feathercoin? Primecoin? In ten years from now, they will be vaporware. EDIT: Congrats, on being able to write 10+ papers on Bitcoin, I certainly couldnīt, as mere accountant, not programmer. |
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Ughh Ripple? Really? I tried to figure out ripple but it seemed like a scam.
Scam is process, where you pay for product, that is not delivered. I received my XRP and later sold them for both Btc and USD. How does that fulfill definition of scam? By the way, in recent weeks chinese gateways have far larger volume traded, than Bitstamp/Snapswap (XRP is far more expensive over there too). https://ripplecharts.com/market/USD:Bitstamp/XRPEDIT: I had couple of problems with deposits, but those were all without exception on Bitstamp part, Ripple client itself didnīt fail me yet. |
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90% of people mis-use the word "scam". You realize that scam means intent to deceive right? Is that what you decided about Ripple? It was made to steal money from people? Strange ... Assuming you just don't know the right words to convey thoughts with ... Ripple is very confusing, you're right. And its a higher risk investment than Bitcoin, for sure. You're right. If you are interested in buying some ripple, I just went through the whole process, banging my head against walls blindfolded basically ... so now I can help others: 1) Sign up on ripple 2) Sign up on SnapSwap.us 3) Decide on your dollar amount, and have SnapSwap generate an invoice to your email. 4) Print out invoice, drive to Wells Fargo bank, and deposit cash into their account (yes its legit). On the deposit slip type your username and invoice number (yes they'll see it) 5) Email support@snapswap.us and tell them you did the deposit and dollar amount and username. (just to be thorough). 6) Open up a "line of trust" on Ripple for SnapSwap, and the dollar amount of your deposit 7) In a few days your Ripple Wallet will have a balance 8 ) In Ripple go to "Convert", select "XRP" from the dropdown, and purchase your XRP. You'll get current market price this way. Alternately you can attempt to use the "Trade" system, which I was utterly unable to figure out. Boom you'll convert USD to XRP and you'll own XRP in an online wallet on Ripple.com Im probably going to make another thread with this info because its not an easy process. or you could simply buy them at bitstamp and you skip all complicated steps above, but what is the point of ripple any ways, I mean why ripple ? a centralized "coin" that a company owns that cant do a shit!! is it like a payment bridge ? no proof of work or anything, coins generated of thin air and sold to people for money. isn't that the real definition of ponzi scheme? the people on the top of the pyramid (owners of the company) get the most and people like you buy it and tell people about it so more people buy..... I mean what do you do with ripple can you please explain I don't really get the concept ? Because on exchange, that is integrated right into the client you will get far better rate, than on Bitstamp. Oh, by the way, you just defined Bitcoin right there. Since I started trading bitcoin I hear all the time about Satoshi being this evil mastermind, that hid half of coins for himself Well, today I trade both ripple and bitcoin, Am I not just asking to be ripped off by those geek scammers? a) Ripple is much faster, than any of bitcoin clones (isnīt speed one of arguments for litecoin?), my transactions got cleared in seconds. b) "Coins generated out of thin air" - then go back to fiat seriously, you can atleast touch it. c) I can actually buy more bitcoins in ripple client with no goddamn fees! Hell yes. d) Yes, Ripple is sort of payment bridge. Like Paypal, but with zero fees. Is Paypal ponzi too? e) Ripple exchange is actually decentralized. For the recod, I made actual money, using Ripple. I also made money using Bitcoin. |
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Hello.. I bought some Litecoin a few weeks ago at 5$ and have done quite well with them. I just traded what LTC I had for BTC yesterday. I want to acquire more BTC in this way.
I feel that Altcoins will give a bit more return in the short term then BTC. BTC for the long of course!
Of all the coins I can trade on CoinMKT which ones are the best bet?
LiteCoin $27
PPCoin $5
TerraCoin $1.2
NameCoin $6.7
FeatherCoin $.87
PrimeCoin $5
Since Chinese discovered Ripple it gained 1000% in value. Unlike those mentioned above, it isnt just modified BTC. |
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BtcChina is currently having 40-45% share of day trades. To me it looks like Chinese superceded Gox, not like diversification. Atleast not yet.
EDIT: AND in 2017, seems like I was proven right again. It would take another three years from this original post before both exchanges AND volume will start to look healthy again. Oh, if I ever got one satoshi per every time I was right...
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Rpietila, when you compare the current situation to the April crash, I think you miss one detail:
The April crash was largely caused by MtGox going down. Now there isn't a single point of failure like that anymore.
You really believe we would hit 1000 back in april, if not for Gox? Market doesnīt work like that. |
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