Analysis

[smoothie]

I said watching gold parity.

Current gold prices:
7549.96 CNY
1241.70 USD

This ^. But I could care less about MTGOX prices.

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[BitPirate]

The price is not even halfway to top. This seems clear, there is not even need for technicals. This time we are going mainstream for REAL and big money wants in. I won't surprise for the interim top being +$2,500 - and 5 figures in the next 12/24 months.

Bitcoin is steadily arriving to its tipping point: it either succeeds or becomes one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history.

We're not ready for mainstream yet, but agree, this bubble is far from over.

[Bimmerhead]

I said watching gold parity.

Current gold prices:
7549.96 CNY
1241.70 USD

Because you expect a interim top at that point, or because you expect a breakout to the upside?

[JustAnotherSheep]

Oh great master, I humbly ask for your guidance regarding the top of this rally. Are you certain about your 10k CNY/BTC count? Because looking at previous bubbles (2011 and April 2013) wave 5 has consistently taken the price a bit more than double the top of wave 3. Applying that logic to this bubble would mean a top of around 15k CNY. Do you think there's a possibility of us going that far?

[masterluc]

I dunno the top. I'm not a master Yoda =) Usually I see the signs of top in technicals (but actual top of course will be some time later signs). Those signs still absent.

For example, some time ago I said current candle is RIP. And price dump was two days later.

[windjc]

I dunno the top. I'm not a master Yoda =) Usually I see the signs of top in technicals (but actual top of course will be some time later signs). Those signs still absent.

For example, some time ago I said current candle is RIP. And price dump was two days later.

So far your technical analysis and charts are my favorite on the forum. I don't make or print charts, but if I did they would normally concur with yours.

Right now though is an interesting time. Because when I look at the charts they look really overbought. But they dont feel overbought to me. In fact, they feel, since the last correction pretty damn stable. Bitstamp for instance has had steady growth, China seems to be keeping its impulses to skyrocket parabolic in control by correcting itself at every upswing. Gox is the only exchange that seems to be trying to exhaust itself, but there is always that added buying pressure there.

I have been thinking 10k (actually somewhere above 9k) would be the next big correction point in China. However, I had kinda of assumed they would get there with a parabolic swing, setting up another big correction. However, that is looking less and less likely.

Although my eyes do not want to believe it for some reason, I still think there is a strong emotional flavor to a large correction or crash. And we just aren't there yet. In fact, it doesn't even feel close. There are way to many bears and way too much trepidation in the market right now - despite the growth. We need some real over confidence to move into some giant swings to get something big to the downside. And we are talking about some potentially major upside moves.

However, in the back of my mind, I must admit being concerned about some piece of bad news coming out from somewhere. I think the market is fragile and MAY just be waiting for a catalyst to go into bear mode. Bear modes are good things - they allow for the eco-system to catch up with the market speculation and thus make bitcoin stronger in the process.

I think the next bear mode may come from some bad news. Otherwise we might fly up to $2500-$3000 before we go into a bear market again.

We'll see.

[fontas]

I dunno the top. I'm not a master Yoda =) Usually I see the signs of top in technicals (but actual top of course will be some time later signs). Those signs still absent.

For example, some time ago I said current candle is RIP. And price dump was two days later.

It is my conviction that when we see at least two+ consecutive days from the current rally make it to the top 10 differentials list, the top is in.

It has been the case the last few bubbles and it will probably be the case again.

I wonder if there is an indicator for the differential from the previous day.


(from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138109.140)
Differential from previous day:
 1. 2011-02-01 43.14%
 2. 2010-07-18 37.09%
 3. 2011-06-08 36.92%
 4. 2013-04-17 30.52%
 5. 2010-10-25 29.87%
 6. 2011-06-03 29.33%
 7. 2013-04-13 28.80%
 8. 2011-05-13 28.40%
 9. 2011-04-29 27.50%
10. 2010-07-19 27.50%


Top spotting is actually quite easy. StochRSI, AO, Fisher, MACD, E waves will all line up, and forum posts will have exclamation marks. Lots of exclamation marks.

[firstcrypto]

Where will the rally end?

https://i.imgur.com/I7HHt7w.jpg

This is the most probable place the rally will stop (in my opinion). Considering the strength of the rally, there will probably be an overshoot. The scale on the graph is in log so even though it looks like the rally is soon to end we are talking about a substantial increase from here on. Depending on how fast/slow the rally continues and if there is a strong corrective wave between here and the top the range would be between 2200 and 2500. With overshot, higher.

The rally have to continue to such levels. After Primary 3 there need to be enough "legroom" downwards to Primary 4 so that it doesn't break the wave count.

I also think the mood backs this up. Media is still primarily focusing on bubble, ponzi, pyramid, scam, "you will lose your money", "the government will stop it", "its deflationary" talk. The price is rising on a wall of worry. Even though reddit and the forum postings look positive I cant get rid of the underlying nervousness: is this for real? is this really happening? "There will be an incredible smack down any second"

Early adopter who "get it" are however getting aboard, hence the buying pressure.  I don't think there are many regular papa Joes, family type people, non-techies invested yet, they are rare which is why they are upvoted or in the news when it happens. Some of those people will come in and drive Primary 5 to obscene levels next year.

It is getting very close to the point where you will have people come to you for advice how to buy bitcoin that you talked about bitcoin to in the past. The amount of wallets created every day suggest mass adoption with exponential growth.

Don't loose your cool and sell when the smack down comes, the next leg up is going to be the grandest for bitcoin so far, this is just warming up.

[xephyr]

Good points. Ever since bitcoin price hit $1000 some friends are now finally asking for advice on buying bitcoin. Not many though.

[Odrec]

Good points. Ever since bitcoin price hit $1000 some friends are now finally asking for advice on buying bitcoin. Not many though.

Friends ask about bitcoin, say that they should buy a bit but really really few actually do it (none that I know).

Most of the people that asked me about it find that it is complicated, nerdy stuff. Bitcoin has appeared four times in different local news sources and not a single bad article though so that might change. Although I have to agree that actually getting bitcoins is more complicated than it should.

[Pruden]

Good points. Ever since bitcoin price hit $1000 some friends are now finally asking for advice on buying bitcoin. Not many though.

Friends ask about bitcoin, say that they should buy a bit but really really few actually do it (none that I know).

Most of the people that asked me about it find that it is complicated, nerdy stuff. Bitcoin has appeared four times in different local news sources and not a single bad article though so that might change. Although I have to agree that actually getting bitcoins is more complicated than it should.

I just tell them to send me the money. They save the hassle of verifying accounts on exchanges, I do the job for them.

[masterluc]

I don't like this overlap happened on btcchina

[Crazy]

You think it'll eventually retest support or consolidate at 5000 CNY?

[Han]

Any thoughts on this count?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MsdY0SBD/

[ag@th0s]

Any thoughts on this count?

Just another Garbage Chart?
You've got the blue lines going up, and the red lines going down, so you've got that convention right.  You've even made the blue line going up from $470 *thicker* than the others which is just a stroke of genius.  Apart from that it's garbage and you would_appear_to_be_wrong.  So your prediction is we hit $470 on the 6th?

[Han]

Edit: thoughts from anyone who's not a fuckwad?

[xephyr]

That's rather harsh. If Han's count is correct and we completed five waves up it would not be unreasonable for the corrective three waves down to end at 454, which was the wave iv low by his count.

[Wekkel]

It all depends on the strength of the next wave down. I was not impressed by the selling in the latest sell off which only reached $970. It remains to be seen whether we touch the prevoius sell off low of $840. This next wave down could easily be the next entry point before another big surge.

[accord01]

It all depends on the strength of the next wave down. I was not impressed by the selling in the latest sell off which only reached $970. It remains to be seen whether we touch the prevoius sell off low of $840. This next wave down could easily be the next entry point before another big surge.

970 on mtgox or bitstamp... the latest dip on bitstamp was to sub 950

[accord01]

do we have a cup and handle forming right now?