Analysis

[molecular]

What exactly do you mean by 'end'? Value getting halved? double digits? pennies?

End of first historical bullish trend 2010-2013.

I disagree. The recent corrections range from healthy after-hyperbole "normal market" corrections to media-driven overreaction (china central bank). Technically double-top (1250 gox) is bad, but we also have double bottom (850 gox). I think we will enter huge triangle between 850 and 1250 which will take some time to resolve. Maybe around January we will exit to the upside and go for 2-3k in Q1 2014.

[Zarathustra]

Also add daily MACD cross here. Taking all that I give 20% chance that rally will continue.

I bet 1 Coin on the 20% chance.

[lebing]

What exactly do you mean by 'end'? Value getting halved? double digits? pennies?

End of first historical bullish trend 2010-2013.

I disagree. The recent corrections range from healthy after-hyperbole "normal market" corrections to media-driven overreaction (china central bank). Technically double-top (1250 gox) is bad, but we also have double bottom (850 gox). I think we will enter huge triangle between 850 and 1250 which will take some time to resolve. Maybe around January we will exit to the upside and go for 2-3k in Q1 2014.

This.

I really enjoy Lucif's technical analysis, but most recently I find he is falling back into his old pattern of wanting the market to do what he thinks it is going to do rather than using his considerable skills to read it. As far as I can tell there is absolutely no justification, especially from a fundamental perspective of why we would all of a sudden see a turn around of 4 years of adoption curve/ price increase. I would love to hear however why I am wrong.

[bitcodo]

What exactly do you mean by 'end'? Value getting halved? double digits? pennies?

End of first historical bullish trend 2010-2013.

I disagree. The recent corrections range from healthy after-hyperbole "normal market" corrections to media-driven overreaction (china central bank). Technically double-top (1250 gox) is bad, but we also have double bottom (850 gox). I think we will enter huge triangle between 850 and 1250 which will take some time to resolve. Maybe around January we will exit to the upside and go for 2-3k in Q1 2014.

This.

I really enjoy Lucif's technical analysis, but most recently I find he is falling back into his old pattern of wanting the market to do what he thinks it is going to do rather than using his considerable skills to read it. As far as I can tell there is absolutely no justification, especially from a fundamental perspective of why we would all of a sudden see a turn around of 4 years of adoption curve/ price increase. I would love to hear however why I am wrong.

I think he is using his skills. He is talking about waves and technical indicators.

I think it is hard to say that we are at top or not. From Elliott wave principle

Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market.

It is good to be cautious in these times. Not to take part of the profits out now, it seems silly to me.

[seleme]

Lol, 2 weeks ago we were in wave 3 and now suddenly it is the end of 3 years bullish trend.

Enjoyed your analysis but it looks you started to think you're bigger than you really are and want people to fail on such obvious bullshit claims and bring market where you want it. Can see why some people didn't like you now.

Being bullish and bearish is OK but this such an obvious bullshit claim it's laughable.

[seleme]

What exactly do you mean by 'end'? Value getting halved? double digits? pennies?

End of first historical bullish trend 2010-2013.

I disagree. The recent corrections range from healthy after-hyperbole "normal market" corrections to media-driven overreaction (china central bank). Technically double-top (1250 gox) is bad, but we also have double bottom (850 gox). I think we will enter huge triangle between 850 and 1250 which will take some time to resolve. Maybe around January we will exit to the upside and go for 2-3k in Q1 2014.

This.

I really enjoy Lucif's technical analysis, but most recently I find he is falling back into his old pattern of wanting the market to do what he thinks it is going to do rather than using his considerable skills to read it. As far as I can tell there is absolutely no justification, especially from a fundamental perspective of why we would all of a sudden see a turn around of 4 years of adoption curve/ price increase. I would love to hear however why I am wrong.

Exactly, utter bullshit. Predicting corrections, crashes etc.. is all OK if you have arguments for it but to claim such a huge thing on the top of Bitcoin's awareness is pathetic, lol.

[Han]

What exactly do you mean by 'end'? Value getting halved? double digits? pennies?

End of first historical bullish trend 2010-2013.

Does this mean you sold off the last 20% of your coins, masterluc?

[zby]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2010-10-08&e=2011-07-07&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0
We are in a place analogue to the end of February now

[lebing]

We are in a place analogue to the end of February now

image didnt load, but yes it somehow feels that way

[windjc]

What exactly do you mean by 'end'? Value getting halved? double digits? pennies?

End of first historical bullish trend 2010-2013.

You just pissed some people off in this thread.

I actually agree with you regarding this particular rally.

However, there is absolutely no way anyone can say a bull market of 3 years is over. What does that even mean? Are you suggesting that when the price went from 32 to 2 that was a bull market? Because if you are, then where possibly could a bear market take us? To <$1.

I mean the premise is obsurd.  I think you are thinking too literally, staring at your charts, and are throwing basic common sense to the wind.

[molecular]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2010-10-08&e=2011-07-07&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0
We are in a place analogue to the end of February now

it might be better to use screenshots for a purpose like this

[Zarathustra]

Exactly, utter bullshit. Predicting corrections, crashes etc.. is all OK if you have arguments for it but to claim such a huge thing on the top of Bitcoin's awareness is pathetic, lol.

It seems you have no idea of EWT. EWT does not analyse corrections and crashes only. It is an analysis of short and long waves and thus used as a basic for predictions, based on personal interpretations of the waves and the probabilities, which depends on how a waver is counting the waves.

[lucas.sev]

amazing how pissed people are 

[pinky]

amazing how pissed people are 

Another sign that masterluc might be spot on.

[bitcodo]

amazing how pissed people are 

This is very worrying.

Also:

At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed.

[molecular]

amazing how pissed people are  

I hope I didn't come around as pissed or ridiculing masterluc or bears in general. I am not pissed, I just have a different opinion. I wouldn't mind a bear market for a year or so,... shakes out the idiots that are in the boat "for the wrong reasons" very effectively.

[sumantso]

amazing how pissed people are  

I hope I didn't come around as pissed or ridiculing masterluc or bears in general. I am not pissed, I just have a different opinion. I wouldn't mind a bear market for a year or so,... shakes out the idiots that are in the boat "for the wrong reasons" very effectively.

I would love to have bear market for a year. Would give me a chance to keep increasing my stash.

I consider BTC as a game. If it goes to 0, ah well. But it is more likely to succeed in which case I may be able to retire on a beach with parties, booze and girls

Regarding 'pissed', I think he was referencing Seleme. He always comes across in an abrasive way. I banned him from Worldcoinforums long back.

[lucas.sev]

Let's crucify lucif!! 

I find he is falling back into his old pattern of wanting the market to do what he thinks it is going to do rather than using his considerable skills to read it.

Can see why some people didn't like you now.

Being bullish and bearish is OK but this such an obvious bullshit claim it's laughable.

utter bullshit.

[Okurkabinladin]

amazing how pissed people are 

I noticed too. Anyway, ML originally suggested, that we might see top between 2-4k before Christmas. What I do know, that I am not going all in before New Years Eve. This entire situation seems awfully familiar.

[N12]

Disregard lucif at your peril.

I'm glad he still shares with us.