Analysis

[windjc]

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

So you are 100% fiat until 2016?

We getting a quote on that?  

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[windjc]

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.

Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?

Why could it not happen again? The reasons are pretty obvious. Adaption on a much larger scale. Investment on a much larger scale. Acceptance on a much larger scale. Eco-system on a much larger scale. etc. etc. etc. 2011, Bitcoin was no even where LTC is today regarding these factors. Crypto currency was a pimple on the butt of obscurity.

Yes, all of this is now on a larger scale. And that is why the price is on a larger scale.

For us to repeat 2011 would mean the price to go back to $40-60.

That ain't happening, unless the price goes back to 0.

[T.Stuart]

Hi there,
Could I ask a question as a layman without any grasp of technical analysis, stocks, charts, etc.
What do those of you who are specialists in this field and who do this to earn at least a part-time living or a full-time living think about the reliability of your methods when applied to bitcoin as opposed to major stocks or the forex markets?
Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.

[masterluc]

Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.

We live in zombie market. Investors don't give a shit about assets and securities internals. They mostly buy gold (Yahoo, Google papers and all other) not because they need actual gold. The only purpose is to sell later. They call it "financial instrument". Same with Bitcoin. Big money doesn't care about Satoshi whitepaper. They just press BUY and SELL.

They don't even draw attention that Litecoin is shit because overall electrical power on earth is limited, so one fork (Bitcoin) will always take away computation power from other forks (and thus, take away their security). So there will be only One fork in the end (words of Satoshi, Long Fork Theorem).

They just buy, because some ex-Google nerd said it is a digital silver (without any other grounds).

Big money in some meaning are not intelligent. They just buy and sell with only purpose to get more money. They don't care about internals. Every asset is just another financial instrument. You think Bitcoin is something special for them? I don't.

[oda.krell]

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.

Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?

re: ATH. We'll see, I guess. Too far into the big money game for stuff to play out like 2011, IMO.

re: news vs. TA. Never said *TA follows news*. Just that I don't buy the opposite either (*News follows TA*). It's a bit more complicated than that, and you gave a good example (sometimes e.g. price "unlocks" certain events.) (hehehe, no I'm thinking of MMORPGs)

[windjc]

Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.

We live in zombie market. Investors don't give a shit about assets and securities internals. They mostly buy gold (Yahoo, Google papers and all other) not because they need actual gold. The only purpose is to sell later. They call it "financial instrument". Same with Bitcoin. Big money doesn't care about Satoshi whitepaper. They just press BUY and SELL.

They don't even draw attention that Litecoin is shit because overall electrical power on earth is limited, so one fork (Bitcoin) will always take away computation power from other forks (and thus, take away their security). So there will be only One fork in the end (words of Satoshi, Long Fork Theorem).

They just buy, because some ex-Google nerd said it is a digital silver (without any other grounds).

Big money in some meaning are not intelligent. They just buy and sell with only purpose to get more money. They don't care about internals. Every asset is just another financial instrument. You think Bitcoin is something special for them? I don't.

Big money hasn't even invested in Bitcoin. Why do you use this as a reason to suggest that Bitcoin is at "big money's" mercy?

Can you clarify what you are even talking about?

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

And moreso, "big money" in my opinion doesn't just reside in the US. There is some really big money in the Middle East. In India. In Asia and Hong Kong.

Again, not investing in BTC. Yet.

So what is this mysterious big money you are talking about?

[masterluc]

Big is relative word )

[beaconpcguru]

Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.

We live in zombie market. Investors don't give a shit about assets and securities internals. They mostly buy gold (Yahoo, Google papers and all other) not because they need actual gold. The only purpose is to sell later. They call it "financial instrument". Same with Bitcoin. Big money doesn't care about Satoshi whitepaper. They just press BUY and SELL.

They don't even draw attention that Litecoin is shit because overall electrical power on earth is limited, so one fork (Bitcoin) will always take away computation power from other forks (and thus, take away their security). So there will be only One fork in the end (words of Satoshi, Long Fork Theorem).

They just buy, because some ex-Google nerd said it is a digital silver (without any other grounds).

Big money in some meaning are not intelligent. They just buy and sell with only purpose to get more money. They don't care about internals. Every asset is just another financial instrument. You think Bitcoin is something special for them? I don't.

Big money hasn't even invested in Bitcoin. Why do you use this as a reason to suggest that Bitcoin is at "big money's" mercy?

Can you clarify what you are even talking about?

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

And moreso, "big money" in my opinion doesn't just reside in the US. There is some really big money in the Middle East. In India. In Asia and Hong Kong.

Again, not investing in BTC. Yet.

So what is this mysterious big money you are talking about?

I believe he is talking about the big wallet holders, such as the one last night who took advantage of the misinterprited China news to drop 20% of their stash (10,000 BTC ) that caused a 100,000 coin avalanche and allowed them to buy at 40% lower.. Notice how these things come.. first its the doom and gloom, then the press, the all you need is a match to light the panic farts and if your in the position to do this then.. down it comes, but the ask depth really hasn't changed much.. Up we go, unless they think they can pull it off again but I don't think there are that many (inexperienced) traders left now that will have the confidence to take it that much lower before plowing on up through the thin ask side

[masterluc]

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

[Ozymandias]

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

Isn't it common knowledge that Coinbase is GS's bitcoin arm? That's how they do things, they take one of their own and make him CEO (Fred Ehrsam in this case) of the company in the sector that they're looking to probe without having to actually take a position in a gray-ish market (and thus saving face if it goes belly up).

[windjc]

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

Ok. So where are we going from here?  Did you call $400 as the bottom of this down cycle? Or are you really holding fiat to 2016?

[myself]

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

Ok. So where are we going from here?  Did you call $400 as the bottom of this down cycle? Or are you really holding fiat to 2016?

dude just stop, understand there people will have money and they need to lose a large portion of that money so the market can move on

[masterluc]

dude just stop, understand there people will have money and they need to lose a large portion of that money so the market can move on

I took his money, he  probably a bit angry

[tarmi]

show some respect.

lucif did call two bubble tops + choo choo train to 1k $

[windjc]

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

Ok. So where are we going from here?  Did you call $400 as the bottom of this down cycle? Or are you really holding fiat to 2016?

dude just stop, understand there people will have money and they need to lose a large portion of that money so the market can move on

Ok, I fear i am coming across of some sort of random antagonist in this thread. So let me clarify...

I have read back on all of masterluc's analysis and for the most part its highly impressive, cohesive and has tracked my sentiments much more time than not. So mad respect there.

However, his latest prediction that we are entering a multi-year bear market is based on the EW theory that he is extrapolating on a logarithmic chart since the beginning of BTC on the markets.

Luc's short term predictions are awesome.

But here is what I believe is happening with this long term prediction. First, we have to suppose that the EW theory is the correct theory to judge BTC long term growth chart. It very well may not be. In fact, there is a really good chance that its not. There is a strong argument that the EW theory for BTC and the S-curve adoption graph are incompatible with each other.

So, I think what is happening with masterluc, is that he is stuck to a EW theory. Now that theory says we are going down for a long time. This flies in the face of the adoption curve and what we are seeing in the REAL world with adoption, eco-system, etc. So Luc has to justify a possible scenario that would make this seemingly ridiculous theory seem plausible. So he answers to this that the stock market is a bubble and when that pops it will spiral effect BTC to the downside. Although this statement flies in the face of what we have seen from investment commodities during stock market down turns.

Now, I guess if the entire US system failed then BTC could be down for several years.

But suggesting that the US economy and/or the stock market will create the EW theory scenario is, in my opinion, simply a concoction of masterlucs imagination.

[accord01]

Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.

We live in zombie market. Investors don't give a shit about assets and securities internals. They mostly buy gold (Yahoo, Google papers and all other) not because they need actual gold. The only purpose is to sell later. They call it "financial instrument". Same with Bitcoin. Big money doesn't care about Satoshi whitepaper. They just press BUY and SELL.

They don't even draw attention that Litecoin is shit because overall electrical power on earth is limited, so one fork (Bitcoin) will always take away computation power from other forks (and thus, take away their security). So there will be only One fork in the end (words of Satoshi, Long Fork Theorem).

They just buy, because some ex-Google nerd said it is a digital silver (without any other grounds).

Big money in some meaning are not intelligent. They just buy and sell with only purpose to get more money. They don't care about internals. Every asset is just another financial instrument. You think Bitcoin is something special for them? I don't.

Big money hasn't even invested in Bitcoin. Why do you use this as a reason to suggest that Bitcoin is at "big money's" mercy?

Can you clarify what you are even talking about?

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

And moreso, "big money" in my opinion doesn't just reside in the US. There is some really big money in the Middle East. In India. In Asia and Hong Kong.

Again, not investing in BTC. Yet.

So what is this mysterious big money you are talking about?

I believe he is talking about the big wallet holders, such as the one last night who took advantage of the misinterprited China news to drop 20% of their stash (10,000 BTC ) that caused a 100,000 coin avalanche and allowed them to buy at 40% lower.. Notice how these things come.. first its the doom and gloom, then the press, the all you need is a match to light the panic farts and if your in the position to do this then.. down it comes, but the ask depth really hasn't changed much.. Up we go, unless they think they can pull it off again but I don't think there are that many (inexperienced) traders left now that will have the confidence to take it that much lower before plowing on up through the thin ask side

Where did you find out somebody dropped 10k stash?  Or just speculation?

[myself]

man you dont know when the market is ready to move on, this is zero sum game and if u think the next rally will be fuelled fully by new deposits u are naive, next push will be fuelled in a large part by pig money and there are plenty of people who can lose more money  

[Odalv]

Tuesday will show the truth. ($400 or ATH)

[accord01]

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

You can't be serious.  Big money institutions don't enter markets at it's peak.  They enter markets when it has been gutted to near death.  Bitcoin is at it's peak right now in terms of good publicity and price.

If you are referring to coinbase as GS, i doubt it.  Coinbase seems VERY shady, but that doesn't mean it is linked to GS just because former GS worker started coinbase.

[accord01]

I think it should reach $2k-$4k in near future in a final push, especially if it will draw a triangle now 7-14 days long.

But I don't want to take a part in further market actions. I reached all my targets, dreams and so on. And now I cashed out for 80%. Thanks China. Thanks US Senate. Thanks uncle Ben, I like your Franklins in my hands.

I think selling in wave 4 of final historical 5 is not bad. I left 20% coins for final wave.

^