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521
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
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on: March 09, 2016, 08:02:03 PM
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I have a theory that the market is trying to find if a serious challenger to Bitcoin's 1st place exists.
It tried this in the past with Ripple and then ETH. Ripple failed at 700m or close to 1bn market cap, can't remember correctly.
Ethereum seems to have failed to, around 950m usd.
Bitcoin got serious after it broke that threshold.
IMO if a coin surpasses this barrier for good (eg 1.2bn) it will replace Bitcoin sooner than most think - maybe in a week or month at most.
I have a feeling that Monero is destined to make the same attempt too.
So I see 1bn market cap as the ultimate target & resistance.
I would sell at 900-950m and wait to see what happens.
Could be wrong of course - this is my gut speaking.
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523
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
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on: March 09, 2016, 06:37:39 PM
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So in a matter of 45 minutes there is wild 35% increase and decrease of the price.
Can someone who trades explain what the benefit of such pump during the simultaneous dumping is? If the buyer wants to accumulate or defend a certain price level, why don't just buy anything below 0.0027 during the dumps? Why drive the price up all the way to 0.0032, what is the benefit?
Margin call the shorter. I could not get my head around it. Thanks. So basically the buyer keeps buying the price up till the shorter gets margin called -> price spikes even more. And to prevent that the shorter has been dumping into the buyer. Correct? Actually it is hard to estimate what really happened - it all begun with a 40k ask wall. It started to get eaten and when it was 30k (after it moved price a couple of times) a same size bid appeared close to it. The ask was removed and immediately dumped to the bid. Then probably the bullwhale got pissed off and started to push aggressively higher - some bids/walls that appeared may were in fact stoplosses/margin calls from other traders. Fact is price got at around 32k and then a big dump happened probably to stop the hunt for stops/margin calls. I don't remember if it was in the 1st or 2n dump but a big 70k ask appeared for seconds, then removed and then got dumped again. Point is that trading/investing has not, as most people think, to do about an asset but more about as a means to 'steal' money from others. The assets are just vehicles for market makers/ whales. They give shit about fundamentals. |
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524
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
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on: March 09, 2016, 06:26:44 PM
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So in a matter of 45 minutes there is wild 35% increase and decrease of the price.
Can someone who trades explain what the benefit of such pump during the simultaneous dumping is? If the buyer wants to accumulate or defend a certain price level, why don't just buy anything below 0.0027 during the dumps? Why drive the price up all the way to 0.0032, what is the benefit?
Margin call the shorter. |
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526
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
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on: March 09, 2016, 03:04:48 PM
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 Price is respecting the trendline there, lets see where we end up at the end of the day, but if this line is respected than it will probably be a couple more days till we see the next leg up. It will because last incident proved the bears that they must bleed in order to push down this zone again! |
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528
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Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA
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on: March 08, 2016, 09:52:38 PM
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I'm sorry to post in your topic, I do understand when this post is removed. But I do have a question regarding the chart I posted here... Do you also see a (bullish) pennant, which looks like to come to end just before the supposed halving? Thank you so much. You are very welcome to post here! Regarding your question, I am not very good at this type of TA but you can see there in your chart that since we hit 500, we are doing lower highs. IMO if we manage to break above 452-453 we will have the power needed to go for a new high, above 500. On the other hand, breaking 385 would be highly problematic. In the chart you posted the pennant has to break somewhere, I agree. Maybe it will around the halving. In PnF we don't take time into consideration though. Also regarding the halving, it is a fundamental analysis which might be an endless discussion (someone could argue that this in combination with the scaling issue is bearish etc etc). This is the reason I decided to focus on TA for my trading/investing. I read many fundamental analyses and I agree with the writer until I read the next one arguing against it! Everyone looks to me right & wrong in the same time!  If you want a hint from classical non PnF TA, buy when 1d RSI is 30 and/or below and sell when the weekly RSI is 90+. It worked in the past and it might continue to do so... |
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529
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Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA
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on: March 07, 2016, 09:18:28 PM
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You are a great PnF practitioner sir! Indeed we bounced in the support (which got stronger) and to be honest it is the only bullish thing I see for BTC right now. BTCChina 1D HL 1%x3  In case we break these green lines block (now below 2600) things will start getting really ugly! |
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530
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
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on: March 07, 2016, 03:04:12 PM
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If it was just an unrelated pump and there is nothing at all behind it, we could see 100k again.
If XMR is on the move, you should be buying instead of reading. Any price starting with 0.00 is good.
F@ckin nailed it! I would like to add that if it is on the move don't expect ETH like FOMO yet. We will have many ups and down (as is already the case). FOMO will start probably if it breaks the previous local top (400+). |
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531
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
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on: March 06, 2016, 12:08:53 PM
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If 0.0034 was the top of this rally, expect lower lows though...
I think it is a better measurement calculating Monero's value in USD for example. Bitcoin does not yet have a stable value. If Monero's market cap remains 10 million USD this year, but Bitcoin goes to 10 billion USD. Does that mean a lower low for Monero? Good point, I am indecisive at this yet. BTW, (a maybe naive analysis follows) I think that ETH and BTC are direct competitors (like XRP & BTC in the past) but on the other hand XMR & BTC are more of a good pair. I mean, it is of XMRs best interest 1) BTC adoption to increase as much as possible and people use XMR as laundry, 2) XMR should not become No1 to draw attention. There is an interesting paper somewhere in the internet on how the Alpha male and the lowest ones in the pyramid suffer the most stress. The best position to hold is actually No2, all the stress at No1 and you still enjoy big rewards from being the second in rank. Who would you rather be, Putin or Medvedev? On the other hand (win win for XMR) if Bitcoin goes bust, XMR is the next most logical substitute for it (in terms of store of value, decentralisation etc). Actually it may be best couple with ETH (that will most probably become the new King) than with BTC. That said I agree with Anonymint that Monero is not at all perfect but good enough. Regarding his fundamental analysis on the other ones, I won't argue but there are a LOT of worthless stocks that are not worth currently valued at 0$ in the stock market. I think all of these coins are way better choices to invest than in 90% of the stocks in NYSE/NASDAQ. |
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532
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
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on: March 06, 2016, 11:45:26 AM
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Can you elaborate on the "firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts"? My understanding is that Monero is reasonably widely held by many people who believe in crypto currency and decided that Monero represented a best open source effort amongst altcoins. And so I don't think they are in it for a short-term speculation, nor are they holding so much that they need to sell. The hot money may rush out, but the faithful will probably scoop up coins at roughly that price level. Okay maybe $1 - 5 million. I am just saying it can't totally collapse. Whereas, those coins which are hype which is so technologically flawed that they are useless and have 0 adoption such as Ethereum, Factom, MaidSafe, Storj, etc, could go to ~0. Ethereum perhaps not if they raised some $millions during this pump, so they can probably keep the hope alive for a while ($200,000+ per month burn rate  ). Let's say there are 1000 long-term investors holding (invested) $5000 each on average. That is $5 million. And the market cap is usually much larger than the actual capital invested (although that might not be the case for Monero since apparently it was so fairly mined and widely held and not pumped because the price can't be manipulated by buying from yourselves, because it isn't primarily held by a few whales). I think it is hard to figure out how many people are invested in XMR. Try to buy XMR worth of 5000 usd and look at price chart what happens. Probably you are making a candle. I am saying, 5 million marketcap is a marketcap that is supported when there is very little interest in XMR. That has been a solid rock bottom and personally I consider it a low probability event to go there anymore (unless btc will crash big time), that would need XMR should drop to 0.001-0.0012 levels and below when new coins are mined. Of course I might be wrong here but I am playing with probabilities, and if you think the current marketcap is too high for XMR in the long run, then by all means, sell or even go to short position. I can lend you some Moneros if you need.  If 0.0034 was the top of this rally, expect lower lows though... |
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533
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
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on: March 05, 2016, 09:53:29 PM
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So far the only evidence of persistent resistance is the 340k mark predicted by...who said that? Search is failing me. 300-340 ping pong for a while?
For every 10x in price, it is prudent to share half of the position
Where would be the x10 base objectively? (For XMR in general, not individually). Maybe someone should sell half there. IMO it is 100k satoshi. So at 1M everybody sell half lol I don't mean that you sell in chunks of half of your position. You can as well divide the selling more evenly, but always sell at ATH, which provides more coins to the market when they need it, and diversifies your portfolio when you need it. Many who are reading this are behind their accumulation phase already. We had 2 years of cheap coins so you have to be slow to not have time to buy what you wanted. If we assume an average unwealthy investor whose cost basis is 200ksat and XMR is 10% of the portfolio, the reduction of position by half until the time it is 2M makes perfect sense. If this does not happen, XMR becomes 50% of the portfolio which is rather much. Btw, while I see the latest action as part of the quantum foam, technicals still apply and the intraday triple top at the historical strong resistance zone of 275k indicates a Fib retracement in the following days, my target is 230k.
If it is breached however, next stop is 400-430k. Place your bets if you are onto trading.Actually this might be only the accumulation/distribution zone before the next leg up, where Risto says. There is a chance that we will close the day in the future at around 0.0068593 (so we could spike up to 0.01). |
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534
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Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA
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on: March 04, 2016, 10:23:29 AM
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Today I will add 4h charts fro alt coins!
HL, CLOSE and most importantly ALT coins Relative Strength charts (both 1d & 4h)!!!
So you know which alt is rallying/dumping harder!
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535
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
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on: March 04, 2016, 09:35:33 AM
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Either the jump was an inevitable correction because we were operating at suppressed levels for too long, or it was an impulsive overshoot
We are still in the quantum foam territory where the price does not matter. In the future, it will be higher than today, or nothing. So only the quantity matters: if you bought those 10k BTC in 2010, or not. Many could have, but did not. Just replace BTC with XMR and 2010 with 2015. For every 10x in price, it is prudent to share half of the position (unless lazy and does not care about diversification, or needs to keep the wealth private). The quantum foam territory will end when we make ATH. Where would be the x10 base objectively? (For XMR in general, not individually). Maybe someone should sell half there. IMO it is 100k satoshi. So at 1M everybody sell half lol |
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536
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Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA
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on: March 04, 2016, 09:14:09 AM
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CryptXO predicted that the current $BTC levels are at strong support and that XMR will find resistance at 0.027.
My subscribers can confirm this.
Cheers!
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538
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Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA
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on: March 03, 2016, 05:25:56 PM
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From earlier today: ( Fibonacci) https://cryptrader.com/c/TiUCEMeH[9:21] At around 0.024 we have resistance. I had calculated a Price Objective in the same area too. [9:21] Maybe take some profit there. [9:24]  Bullish resistance 0.02337-0.002470 |
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