I think they are roughly correlated in terms of general direction, so if you correlate them with smoothing filter, you get very high correlation.

But they are noisy in short-term and fall out of correlation.

Also BTC is apparently much more volatile than gold.

You are trying to focus in on much shorter-term moves in price action.

We may go up or down short-term, but over next months we are going much lower.

I am not predicting the direction - I know though the importance of the 300$ barrier.
It is 4th time we retest it this year. IMO there is no room for another failure. Whatever that means..


BTW, below 50$ the project should be considered dead.

The Chinese are getting in the mood to short everything. Once they realize they make more money with their money by putting up as margin shorting than buying becomes the new fad. You think they won't short Bitcoin too?

All assets other than the dollar are going be toasted by shorting over the next months as we head into the contagion that has been assured by the rising interest rates confirmed by the Fed leak a this past week.

I explained above why the current setup makes me cautious.
That does not mean I know where it will go (neutral ATM except some 'scalps') and we (everyone here) try with TA (TPTB with TA+fundamentals) to figure out a possible direction with every clue we can find in our charts.

In order to provide some more clues why a triple break must always be treated with caution in a counter signal, I will provide some more examples from BTC chart.

Coincidentally the first one is from the double top I mentioned before of last summer. I see many similarities with back then but there are of course differences too.
Not sure what will happen if we double top now (same or different pattern) but BTC tends to repeat patterns (don't you dare deny this! ).

So here is the first chart:



That was a very strong sell signal and a first serious warning that this asset should be treated with extreme caution! Even the subsequent strong double top could not reverse this and then we fell even harder!

We fell down to 445 and bounced at 530 - then another triple bottom (468) break finished any chances of recovery! We fell to 275:




275 to 410 and the another triple bottom at 368 sends us at 315. Then we rally up to 475 and we get another triple bottom at 365 which brings us at 165! :




That was the last time we encountered such a signal until the recent one.

Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th!

It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history...
Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?

Let me make this clear: Tripple bottom break AND bullish trend are INCOMPATIBLE!!!

Triple top/bottom break is very strong signal, I doubt 275 support will hold.

Sell signal:



But on support line. Be careful anyway you trade..

BTC triple bottom at 284$. If it holds extremely bullish. If it breaks (280$) very strong sell signal.

Resistance 288-292 & 300-304$. Bullish trend broken at 260$.

Gold target 500$. Worst case scenario 300$.
If BTC decouples it will go at least 2000$.
If not targets are about 100$ and 50$ respectively.

Gold and BTC were moving in the past both in parallel and anti parallel. Interesting to see where this will go!

kLee prophecy for the lolz:

315 -> 125 -> 215 -> 75 -> 145

EDIT: That is a bearish scenario if we fail to break 300$ again for good (>320)

This appears to be the final "shakeout" before we rise.  It always seems to happen this way. 

Big buys @Finex.

Would love to scoop some cheap coins again at 220 (srs..)

BEAR trend again!!!




Both in HL AND CLOSE.

No longs. Short the resistances. Maybe short some double bottom breaks. Close shorts at double top breaks.

Sub 200s?

Is this because of the media coverage regarding mark karpelees arrest?  Interested to see how low this goes.

There are still people left who look at bitfinex fake walls ? It's just one whale who makes always the same moves.

EDIT: BTW I closed my longs yesterday and gave 2/3 of my budget for sure money (swaps). The rest are ready for the next signal..

Ok, I will give some possible scenarios now. Surprisingly enough I realised yesterday that a fall from 296 can be extremely bullish in some of them.

Let's forget the sideways scenario (which is of course possible) because no one cares here.

Scenarios:

1) Go directly to breakout from 296 at 300. This has been covered above. Wait for the 300-310 area to get cleared and FOMO.
2) Fall and then rise again at 300. Extremely bullish because we have triple top breakout which is more than enough to counter the previous triple bottom break. We buy with both hands!
The fall can have two cases:
    a) Lower Higher low down to 276
    b) Double bottom at 272.
Both very bullish

3) The most interesting one! Shakeout... Covered in depth above.
We double bottom break 272 down 1-2 boxes (probably in the 265 area) and reverse (3X). It is a shakeout pattern and is a BUY at the reversal.

4) Fall lower (box at 260). Bearish. Support at around 250. But be extremely careful with longs. If we close below 244 short every bounce. It is going sub 200s.

Happy safe trading everyone!