KLee, excuse the probably ignorant observation, but your chart above has 45 degree angles, but isnt that a feature of the "candlesticks" you're using? I mean, you'll always have 45 degree angles...
These are 'objectives' trendlines: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:pnf_charts:pnf_trendlines"Trendlines on 3-box Reversal P&F charts are drawn at 45 degrees up and 135 degrees down. An ascending trendline is called a Bullish Support Line and a descending trendline is called a Bearish Resistance Line. Because these lines are drawn at specific angles, they represent a specific rate of ascent or descent. Chartists can use P&F trendlines to define the overall trend and look for signals in the direction of that trend." EDIT: Of course you can draw 'subjective' ones too, like the purple one in the last chart I posted... |
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OP where do we stand now?
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Here is the HL with a 2$ box size:  Bullish signal (triple top break) reversed almost at the resistance from 316 and subjective support broken. Support 254, 240 (the previous double bottoms). Bearish support line 254-256. More sensitive chart - gives bigger returns with higher risk. |
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What is wrong with bear catapult now. Is it jammed?
Columns may take years to complete, they are not like candle charts. It may go even further down in price or bounce with a new X column. But you would expect it to be a dead cat because of the strong sell. If we breakout 300+ the whole setup was a shakeout but not a textbook one. Here are some examples to see this signal with other assets: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan?s=TSAL[t.t_eq_s]![as0,20,tv_gt_40000]![yb_eq_1]&report=predefall because if whale triggered initial drop, it has to buy coins cheaper. But currently there is no volume. Longs are still high. I believe that there should be at least another strong drop. There has to be strong volume at the bottom, otherwise it is not the bottom.BTW what is the status with the golden cross & cup handle? Are they technically over? Yeah I agree. Problem with P&F though is there is no way to catch the bottom, actually it is quite the opposite. So you have to consider other tools like you say. Personally I will wait to see 1d RSI below 30 to enter again long term OR a big Os column (>20) that it will reverse. This is a long tail down reversal:http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:pnf_alerts#long_tail_down_reversalWhen we fell down to 168$ in the 4$ box HL, the reversal was at 180... I bought & sold at 198 lol. What an idiot...  |
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What is wrong with bear catapult now. Is it jammed?
Columns may take years to complete, they are not like candle charts. It may go even further down in price or bounce with a new X column. But you would expect it to be a dead cat because of the strong sell. If we breakout 300+ the whole setup was a shakeout but not a textbook one. Here are some examples to see this signal with other assets: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan?s=TSAL[t.t_eq_s]![as0,20,tv_gt_40000]![yb_eq_1]&report=predefall |
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There are still people left who look at bitfinex fake walls ? It's just one whale who makes always the same moves.
Sadly there are... Bitfinex walls back up. Lol, dat whales.. |
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I was asked by OP to post my chart here. It looks like one single move (bubble) to ~1150 and the 52EMA shows the support and resistance quite nicely.  Thanks Drak, I really like when I see beautiful simple TA. Less is more! |
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Klee, you want to say that this is a head and shoulder pattern and $250 is A MUST, right ?
Must is a very strong word, especially in markets. But this is my prediction. It is based on (MA+TPTB analysis) + PnF analysis + my 'wisdom' I have gained in this market since 2011. About my wisdom, it is a bit complicated and difficult for me to describe in English. I will try to someday. About PnF, it is an a posteriori method regarding price - it does not predict but it tells you the momentum/trend. Which is bearish atm. VERY bearish. Multiple bearish signs since the 315 top. My P&F 'forecast' can be wrong and this turns out to be a shakeout. Technically it has small chances because: 1) Bullish trendline violated so technically it does not qualify as a shakeout (a reverse at 300) 2) It will have to reverse the bearish catapult formation (most strong signal in P&F) BUT...It IS possible! Everything is. After all Bitcoin tends to always exagerate at TA and stretch things to the limits. So I don't think it is impossible. I just give it very small chances. Also I don't think it is probable to go sideways for some months in the 240-270 area before we breakout. We need a very serious reason for people to panic USE Bitcoin, like Greece^3. Maybe the tsunami MA predicts will fuel Bitcoin instead of taking it down along with everything else, who knows? Finally, about MA, he seems to be onto something, and TPTB is the only insane enough guy in here to actually make sense. |
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It has begun...
Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):
Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th! It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history... Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?EDIT: 9 August |
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Just curious… what is "the moon"? does moon = $10,000?
For me I think if 1 BTC = $1,000,000 then I will comfortable saying, "Well, looks like we are here. This is the moon." What you think?
Minimum 50k usd / BTC |
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it's big traders going on vacation and removing their last manipulation in the 275-300 range, i'm not expecting the price to fall below 250 and until then i'll not worry about it at all, you should do the same
Problem is not if it will fall below 250, problem is when moon. BTC=moon so if no moon no BTC.... probably around the halving, because if no moon is accomplished for that time, then bitcoin is probably done IMHO if something like BITCOIN is waiting for halving to moon....it is already done... I am around since 2011, in the success scenario I am more bull than cypherdoc but honestly, I think BTC is done. Really hope I am wrong. |
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it's big traders going on vacation and removing their last manipulation in the 275-300 range, i'm not expecting the price to fall below 250 and until then i'll not worry about it at all, you should do the same
Problem is not if it will fall below 250, problem is when moon. BTC=moon so if no moon no BTC.... |
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Waiting for drop to 200MA (250 USD).
Most probably yes. Interesting to see after that what will happen, how far it can go upwards. |
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CLOSE 1d:  Support 244-252$ HL:  Seems we found some support between the 2 green lines (256 & 264) and the bearish support (we actually came almost over it - it is at 260, we went down to 260.62). Maybe a bounce here. |
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264$ - maybe we will find support here:  |
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XMR is on this setup too! I am out of base so I can't reach my tools & charts but if we take hitbtc at TV (not very represantative but does the trick):  Double top failure at about 0.0034. Also at 0.005. At 0.003 though we have a breakout plus breaking 2 resistances so it is a nice buy signal. But not much profit up to 0.0035 where I expect an horizontal tough resistance (double top failure) EDIT: Also the setup was very bearish, triple bottom break and then another double bottom (which led to lower lows formation too). Α buy signal after this maybe a bull trap, so I would wait at least for 2 more Xs so we clear resistances and minimize the chances of a trap (more easy to get traped with only 1 box movement after a breakout/breakdown, usually if you wanna be more safe you wait for another box). Finally, there was no reason for me to buy at 0.0018 (catch the falling knife) but at 0.001 we have a nice double bottom. |
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