[XMR] Monero Speculation

[novag]

If peoples have in ETH going to XMR, XMR will price rise to the moon!

Why would ppl move from eth to xmr?

Perhaps even for a pair XMR/USD.

[rdnkjdi]

If peoples have in ETH going to XMR, XMR will price rise to the moon!

Why would ppl move from eth to xmr?

Perhaps even for a pair XMR/USD.

I did partially yesterday.  Monero has much more in common with bitcoin than ethereum.  And in my estimation bitcoin is a scary liability.

I want to be positioned for both. 

[kurious]

Resistance at 300 / 310 being tested.

Be nice to see it hold.  A bit of a fight on... 

[aminorex]

So far the only evidence of persistent resistance is the 340k mark predicted by...who said that?  Search is failing me.  300-340 ping pong for a while?

[Bicmac1973]

So far the only evidence of persistent resistance is the 340k mark predicted by...who said that?  Search is failing me.  300-340 ping pong for a while?

Klee made such prediction: his guess was somewhere between 320 and 350. Good call up to now ...

[macsga]

So far the only evidence of persistent resistance is the 340k mark predicted by...who said that?  Search is failing me.  300-340 ping pong for a while?

Klee made such prediction: his guess was somewhere between 320 and 350. Good call up to now ...

Yeah, I can confirm it; he has more info on his thread and a detailed diagram for his subscribers.

[klee]

So far the only evidence of persistent resistance is the 340k mark predicted by...who said that?  Search is failing me.  300-340 ping pong for a while?

For every 10x in price, it is prudent to share half of the position

Where would be the x10 base objectively? (For XMR in general, not individually).

Maybe someone should sell half there.

IMO it is 100k satoshi.

So at 1M everybody sell half lol

I don't mean that you sell in chunks of half of your position. You can as well divide the selling more evenly, but always sell at ATH, which provides more coins to the market when they need it, and diversifies your portfolio when you need it.

Many who are reading this are behind their accumulation phase already. We had 2 years of cheap coins so you have to be slow to not have time to buy what you wanted. If we assume an average unwealthy investor whose cost basis is 200ksat and XMR is 10% of the portfolio, the reduction of position by half until the time it is 2M makes perfect sense. If this does not happen, XMR becomes 50% of the portfolio which is rather much.

Btw, while I see the latest action as part of the quantum foam, technicals still apply and the intraday triple top at the historical strong resistance zone of 275k indicates a Fib retracement in the following days, my target is 230k.

If it is breached however, next stop is 400-430k. Place your bets if you are onto trading.

Agree.

I think it will either spike just above 300 (320) or above 350 (360).

klee, red is not allowed except for moderation. I deleted your post but quoted it fully above using blue instead

Actually this might be only the accumulation/distribution zone before the next leg up, where Risto says.

There is a chance that we will close the day in the future at around 0.0068593 (so we could spike up to 0.01).

[Corepolitics]

Why would ppl move from eth to xmr?

I think if anything, it would be the other way around. Ethereum has essentially cloned Monero at this point.

Ring signature mixer – part of the test.py script now includes creating an instance of a ring signature verification contract which is designed as a mixer: five users send their public keys in alongside a deposit of 0.1 ETH, and then withdraw the 0.1 ETH specifying the address with a linkable ring signature, simultaneously guaranteeing that (i) everyone who deposited 0.1 ETH will be able to withdraw 0.1 ETH exactly once, and (ii) it’s impossible to tell which withdrawal corresponds to which deposit. This is implemented in a way that is compliant with the gas checker, providing the key advantage that the transaction withdrawing the 0.1 ETH does not need to be sent from an additional account that pays gas (something which a ring signature implementation on top of the current ethereum would need to do, and which causes a potential privacy leak at the time that you transfer the ETH to that account to pay for the gas); instead, the withdrawal transaction can simply be sent in by itself, and the gas checker algorithm can verify that the signature is correct and that the mixer will pay the miner a fee if the withdrawal transaction gets included into a block.

https://github.com/ethereum/pyethereum/blob/serenity/ethereum/ringsig.se.py

Basic stages of course, but concept is solid nonetheless.

I envision that over time, the difficulty to unearth an anonymized transaction will become greater for a ring-sig dApp than a cryptonote running on it's own seperate blockchain, and it shall make more sense for users to run dAPPS instead.. for several reasons:

1) Hashrate securing cryptonote chains is dwindling, whilst ETH is increasing,
2) tx volume on cryptonote chains are dwindling, whilst ETH looks set to rise, various monetization facets of the chain means there should be constant demand for gas-consuming contracts . Legitimization of ETH is a good thing. Holding ETH is not inherently standout, whilst holding a coin dedicated to private transactions. is more 'suspicious'. It might be sad that things are this way, but that's a reality.. with XMR, BBR etc you are actually have quite a small circle of users. If ETH gets more traction your ring sig swap might be a drop in the oceon
3) If/when the introduction of p2p decentralized ETH exchanges takes off, like etherex the risk of co-opting a centralised exchange becomes lower. This is a major weakness for Monero, boolberry et al right now, who have a more or less single point of failure from US based exchange subject to the whims of regulators and agencies there


tl;dr if ETH continues to gain mindshare and implements a working ring-sig dAPP on Serenity, the need for a seperate cryptonote coin (and seperate mining securitization) becomes less pronounced

This is especially important if BTC begins to lose ground to ETH, in which case the ability to both hold and mix the same token directly through a dAPP is much more sensible than what is happening now, sending btc to poloniex to trade for xmr and being exposed to extra pricing fluctuations

[americanpegasus]

https://youtu.be/N1NupxasQWs

[dEBRUYNE]

Why would ppl move from eth to xmr?

I think if anything, it would be the other way around. Ethereum has essentially cloned Monero at this point.

Ring signature mixer – part of the test.py script now includes creating an instance of a ring signature verification contract which is designed as a mixer: five users send their public keys in alongside a deposit of 0.1 ETH, and then withdraw the 0.1 ETH specifying the address with a linkable ring signature, simultaneously guaranteeing that (i) everyone who deposited 0.1 ETH will be able to withdraw 0.1 ETH exactly once, and (ii) it’s impossible to tell which withdrawal corresponds to which deposit. This is implemented in a way that is compliant with the gas checker, providing the key advantage that the transaction withdrawing the 0.1 ETH does not need to be sent from an additional account that pays gas (something which a ring signature implementation on top of the current ethereum would need to do, and which causes a potential privacy leak at the time that you transfer the ETH to that account to pay for the gas); instead, the withdrawal transaction can simply be sent in by itself, and the gas checker algorithm can verify that the signature is correct and that the mixer will pay the miner a fee if the withdrawal transaction gets included into a block.

https://github.com/ethereum/pyethereum/blob/serenity/ethereum/ringsig.se.py

Basic stages of course, but concept is solid nonetheless.

I envision that over time, the difficulty to unearth an anonymized transaction will become greater for a ring-sig dApp than a cryptonote running on it's own seperate blockchain, and it shall make more sense for users to run dAPPS instead.. for several reasons:

1) Hashrate securing cryptonote chains is dwindling, whilst ETH is increasing,
2) tx volume on cryptonote chains are dwindling, whilst ETH looks set to rise, various monetization facets of the chain means there should be constant demand for gas-consuming contracts . Legitimization of ETH is a good thing. Holding ETH is not inherently standout, whilst holding a coin dedicated to private transactions. is more 'suspicious'. It might be sad that things are this way, but that's a reality.. with XMR, BBR etc you are actually have quite a small circle of users. If ETH gets more traction your ring sig swap might be a drop in the oceon
3) If/when the introduction of p2p decentralized ETH exchanges takes off, like etherex the risk of co-opting a centralised exchange becomes lower. This is a major weakness for Monero, boolberry et al right now, who have a more or less single point of failure from US based exchange subject to the whims of regulators and agencies there


tl;dr if ETH continues to gain mindshare and implements a working ring-sig dAPP on Serenity, the need for a seperate cryptonote coin (and seperate mining securitization) becomes less pronounced

This is especially important if BTC begins to lose ground to ETH, in which case the ability to both hold and mix the same token directly through a dAPP is much more sensible than what is happening now, sending btc to poloniex to trade for xmr and being exposed to extra pricing fluctuations

I beg to differ, read my post here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/492txo/vitaliks_new_blog_post_implications_for_monero/d0ol2fh

Your arguments are pretty flawed, I currently got no time to comment on it but I will write a more detailed reply tomorrow.

[hitchingAride]

is monero ever going to catch up to eth, eth seems to always be like a rocket ship while xmr is making relatively slow gains.

[luigi1111]

Lastly, for HDD users looking for better performance, the experimental performance branch in development is available for testing at exp/performance here:

https://github.com/warptangent/bitmonero/branches

This includes updates that dramatically improve the daemon's interaction with the wallet when dealing with txs that belong to you (e.g. wallet refresh from scratch on a wallet with many txs).

It also includes updates from hyc, the author of LMDB, that improves block storage efficiency.

The latest set of updates I made were pushed yesterday, which deal with transaction storage, notably decreasing the size of the database.

Note that this branch is incompatible with the master branch (and release builds). The two cannot use the same database.

To try it out:

Code:

git clone https://github.com/warptangent/bitmonero -b exp/performance

It's compiled with:

Code:

BERKELEY_DB=0 make -j3 release

All testers should remember it's an experimental branch in development. The improvements also help on SSD, but are especially noticeable for those with slow storage. This is planned to be merged into the master in the future, after further work.

Testing is welcome by all. Remember that the daemon and importer have the --data-dir option, so a separate database can be used for testing.

I can provide Windows binaries if anyone wants them.

[fluffypony]

is monero ever going to catch up to eth, eth seems to always be like a rocket ship while xmr is making relatively slow gains.

Thank goodness - can you imagine if Monero was backed by a 19 year old kid and his corporate board of directors? I wish them all the best on future decision making, will be sad to watch the community disillusionment as they realise how unimportant the community is to Ethereum. But don't worry - they'll pivot and put community voting in the blockchain with some complicated voting system that is broken in so many ways, and everyone will just accept it because said kid is a "genius among geniuses" and everyone daren't argue with that!

[smooth]

Why would ppl move from eth to xmr?

I think if anything, it would be the other way around. Ethereum has essentially cloned Monero at this point.

I disagree on that point. What has been 'cloned' is a cryptographic primitive. Monero does not have a "mixer", so the design is entirely different. If anything what was created for ETH is closer to SDC than XMR (doubly-so once ETH switches to proof-of-stake).

However, I will agree on your broader point that if ETH grows sufficiently (say two orders of magnitude from where is now) then it will become the de facto blockchain platform on which everything else is built, and that will include privacy-preserving systems such as Monero.

That's a "big if" though. While ETH appears to be gaining momentum at the moment, the vast majority of systems that attempt to grow by two orders of magnitude stumble and fail at some point.

1) Hashrate securing cryptonote chains is dwindling, whilst ETH is increasing,

The hash rate on Monero has not been "dwindling" (and the other "cryptonote chains" don't matter), it has been quite stable. While there is a lag, if the price holds up where it is now the Monero hash rate will certainly increase a lot.

[aminorex]

is monero ever going to catch up to eth, eth seems to always be like a rocket ship while xmr is making relatively slow gains.

The slower the better as far as I am concerned. Or more to the point, the less tradable volatility the better.  It makes it so much easier for random people to hold, and encourages currency use, as well as reserve demand.  We need more market makers as things heat up, to smooth the curve.

[americanpegasus]

The hash rate on Monero has not been "dwindling" (and the other "cryptonote chains" don't matter), it has been quite stable. While there is a lag, if the price holds up where it is now the Monero hash rate will certainly increase a lot.

 
 
Which will create a positive feedback loop.

[aminorex]

However, I will agree on your broader point that if ETH grows sufficiently (say two orders of magnitude from where is now) then it will become the de facto blockchain platform on which everything else is built, and that will include privacy-preserving systems such as Monero.

I don't see that as a competitive advantage for ETH relative to XMR.  All the things that make ETH valuable are actually impediments to fungible liquidity.  At the moment XMR is benefiting from BTC hedging on fear regarding blocksize controversy, and on diversification flows from ETH profit-takers.  But those effects will blow past as the events recede.  The long-term value proposition of XMR is currency, and is quite unrelated to that of ETH. They just aren't comparables. ETH is a platform, not a currency -- by design is profoundly ill-suited to use as a currency.  You don't buy stuff with CPU cycles.  You don't keep your savings in AWS units.  

[ArticMine]

is monero ever going to catch up to eth, eth seems to always be like a rocket ship while xmr is making relatively slow gains.

The rise in Ethereum has in my opinion as much to do with Bitcoin's problems than with Ethereum itself. The market is looking for an alternative to Bitcoin. People are looking for alternatives that do not have "the problem" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1388381.0. Ehtereum is not an alternative to Bitcoin, simply because it is designed to do something else entirely. It is Ethereum 1.0 not Bitcoin 2.0. Monero on the other hand does not have "the problem" and is designed from the ground up  as a possible replacement for Bitcoin, so it could be called a true Bitcoin 2.0 coin. The market of course will have the final say.

[americanpegasus]

Looks like I may have been right - just a couple of weeks early.   

In honor of our 666th page of our speculation topic, I'm going to make the following speculatory proclamation:  
  
LAST CHANCE TO BUY MONERO FOR LESS THAN 200k SATOSHI... EVER.

 
 
BLESSED CHILDREN EAT ADULTS. 
Until Word is Evil, for it transcends,
contradicts and debunks their pedantic academic
brainwashing, indoctrination and Educator taught
Tower of Babble.
********************************************
Nature outlaws word gods. Cubeless word is a
Trojan Horse. Singularity debunked by Time
Cube. 'Cube Spirit' is Almighty. Educators
are too damn stupid to know 4/16 Cube.
There is no Cubic teacher.
***************
Educators are evil people - for it debunks false
gods. Test Your God. Time Cube contradicts
god. Nature's Time Cube exposes evil.
Cubelessness is a counterfeit and fictitious evil
upon children. Teachers are hired evil word
worshiper. Humans are educated stupid and
indoctrinated evil. A pity about your mind.

[smooth]

However, I will agree on your broader point that if ETH grows sufficiently (say two orders of magnitude from where is now) then it will become the de facto blockchain platform on which everything else is built, and that will include privacy-preserving systems such as Monero.

I don't see that as a competitive advantage for ETH relative to XMR.  All the things that make ETH valuable are actually impediments to fungible liquidity.  At the moment XMR is benefiting from BTC hedging on fear regarding blocksize controversy, and on diversification flows from ETH profit-takers.  But those effects will blow past as the events recede.  The long-term value proposition of XMR is currency, and is quite unrelated to that of ETH. They just aren't comparables. ETH is a platform, not a currency -- by design is profoundly ill-suited to use as a currency.  You don't buy stuff with CPU cycles.  You don't keep your savings in AWS units.  

ETH as a platform can be used to build currencies. Currencies require, at their core, a global consensus on the distribution of the money supply, and that is the function that ETH aims to offer in a general-purpose platform. It maybe an expensive, complex, and in some ways undesirable way to do it, but it certainly can be done. If something becomes dominant enough, it will be used regardless of its structural weakness and costs. A lot of computing is still done in Windows. This is all an extreme long shot though, but since we are all about speculation here, that's a long term one with >0 probability.