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1441  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 27, 2015, 10:59:06 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/25/gold-is-doomed/

EDIT:

'Now, the problem with gold is it doesn't pay any interest or dividends, but it does cost money to store.'

So this is where gold and BTC may differ! TPTB??

It's not a bad idea to have a safe, and it costs around the same as a hardware wallet for Bitcoin. The article uses 'Goldbugs' as a derogatory term as if to insult people that go against the norm of centralized and debt based economies. It seems to me, with the US dollar rising against just about everything else at the moment, that a bubble will burst sometime in September/October. It could be that that some other powers will form a coalition and propose a new global 'Reserve Currency' pegged to Gold as our most traditional standard of wealth. This article shows a certain kind of hubris that foreshadows this exact scenario.
Don't wanna dissappoint you but the new reserve is already known (SDR) and will have nothing to do with gold!

I don't like his hubris though, I agree.
1442  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 27, 2015, 10:50:35 AM
@klee - do you have an inversed P&F chart. Just curious.
Inversed? You mean USDBTC? Probably I can to it in TradingView with a formula (1/Bitfinex:USD)

yes
Not sure what to make out of this, but looks very bearish:

1443  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 27, 2015, 09:32:43 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/25/gold-is-doomed/

EDIT:

'Now, the problem with gold is it doesn't pay any interest or dividends, but it does cost money to store.'

So this is where gold and BTC may differ! TPTB??
1444  Economy / Speculation / Re: Direction is NNE (north northeast) - MOON TIME on: July 27, 2015, 08:54:45 AM
First leg down. 2 more to go full bearish Wink


Tea time Smiley
I like your attitude sir! Honestly  Wink
1445  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 27, 2015, 08:41:28 AM
Damn it was seconds before I short it at 292  Angry

Fakhoury I think the answers to your questions are obvious, can't elaborate on the profounds.
1446  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 27, 2015, 08:35:01 AM
@klee - do you have an inversed P&F chart. Just curious.
Inversed? You mean USDBTC? Probably I can to it in TradingView with a formula (1/Bitfinex:USD)
1447  Economy / Speculation / Re: Direction is NNE (north northeast) - MOON TIME on: July 27, 2015, 08:33:17 AM
First leg down. 2 more to go full bearish Wink
1448  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 27, 2015, 07:10:22 AM
We need to break 320 IMO or we were in a countertrend rally and the bear trend is not over.

In this case I think we will see 100% sub 200s again and maybe double digits. It will take time though.
1449  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 27, 2015, 06:34:43 AM
I explained above why the current setup makes me cautious.
That does not mean I know where it will go (neutral ATM except some 'scalps') and we (everyone here) try with TA (TPTB with TA+fundamentals) to figure out a possible direction with every clue we can find in our charts.

In order to provide some more clues why a triple break must always be treated with caution in a counter signal, I will provide some more examples from BTC chart.

Coincidentally the first one is from the double top I mentioned before of last summer. I see many similarities with back then but there are of course differences too.
Not sure what will happen if we double top now (same or different pattern) but BTC tends to repeat patterns (don't you dare deny this! Tongue ).

So here is the first chart:



That was a very strong sell signal and a first serious warning that this asset should be treated with extreme caution! Even the subsequent strong double top could not reverse this and then we fell even harder!

We fell down to 445 and bounced at 530 - then another triple bottom (468) break finished any chances of recovery! We fell to 275:




275 to 410 and the another triple bottom at 368 sends us at 315. Then we rally up to 475 and we get another triple bottom at 365 which brings us at 165! :




That was the last time we encountered such a signal until the recent one.
1450  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 26, 2015, 06:58:54 PM

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):


Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th!

It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history...
Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?
1451  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 26, 2015, 03:14:15 PM
If we make a reversal (3Os at 280) before we move more up I am very undecided on what to do.

Open long at support there or short at the bounce at 285?

I will decide based on the circumstances again...
1452  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 26, 2015, 03:05:57 PM
kLee prophecy for the lolz:

315 -> 125 -> 215 -> 75 -> 145

EDIT: That is a bearish scenario if we fail to break 300$ again for good (>320)

I like it ! Have you begin to entry a shorting position right now? We just broke 292 and it looks so tempting. I'll wait for 3XX though Smiley
Will wait to see in the sidelines - if we fail to break 304 and fall below 295 I will short.

Same scenario you have in mind if we fail to break 315?

BTW: we raised on a sunday. IIRC everytime we did, we raised a lot on the following monday. lets grab some free money and go long now and short at 315 Tongue
I will start opening small longs in every fall (above 300) if we hit 308. I will watch closely for 315 and if not broken in volume I may sell. Hard to say what I will do in this scenario, will have to see & decide live based on the circumstances).

I opened a small position at 291 and will sell if I see it weak up to 315.
1453  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 26, 2015, 02:53:41 PM
kLee prophecy for the lolz:

315 -> 125 -> 215 -> 75 -> 145

EDIT: That is a bearish scenario if we fail to break 300$ again for good (>320)

I like it ! Have you begin to entry a shorting position right now? We just broke 292 and it looks so tempting. I'll wait for 3XX though Smiley
Will wait to see in the sidelines - if we fail to break 304 and fall below 295 I will short.
1454  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 26, 2015, 09:02:56 AM
kLee prophecy for the lolz:

315 -> 125 -> 215 -> 75 -> 145

EDIT: That is a bearish scenario if we fail to break 300$ again for good (>320)
1455  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 25, 2015, 12:09:32 PM
Just to clarify: breaking a resistance/support line in PF is NOT a buy/sell signal.
1456  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 25, 2015, 12:00:13 PM
292$



If we break 292, next resistance is at 305, then a possible double top at 317, after that moon ?
Basically we have resistance up to the last X top (296) and we have to breakout at 300 to get past this first line.
Then there is the 300-304 resistance and of course, as you said, the last high (316).

So if someone wants to be as less risky as possible he has to wait for 320.

I would say that if we pass 305 for good (we hit 308) it is pretty safe to enter.

What is very risky here is two things:

1) The breakout is exactly in the historical 300$ milestone. I expect bears to get really nasty there.
2) We had a tripple bottom break before the next possible double top break, which in general has to be taken very cautiously because it has higher chances of being a bulltrap.

1+2 are pretty synergistic IMO so I would wait for 300-305 area to be left for good behind before I enter. But this is just me of course...
1457  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 25, 2015, 11:37:19 AM
292$

1458  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 25, 2015, 06:31:27 AM
https://thomasdorsey.wordpress.com/2015/07/25/its-not-what-you-look-at-that-matters-its-what-you-see-henry-david-thoreau/
1459  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 24, 2015, 09:04:26 PM
LTC encountered solid resistance at 4.75 and is now struggling to keep 4.5.

BTC seems to have paused at first resistance line at 288-292 too.

Will be a busy week!
1460  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: July 24, 2015, 08:38:44 PM
WTF is wrong with this site again??  Angry Angry

For LTC the trade is easy - buy the break out at 5.5$ else short the hell out of it.
You can short at 4.75-5$ too but risky. <- redundant

BTC is a bit more complicated as a breakout now (300$) is right on to the resistance zone (300-304$).
I would buy at 305$ or short <272$
Alternatively you can short 288-292 range and/or 300-304 but a bit risky too.

Me ATM neutral.
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