Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

His support of Trump is kind of disgusting to me

It is an anti-establishment vote. It is also a vote against political correctness, i.e. is intended to offend you on purpose.

MA sees this as a vindication of his model which predicts the breakup of the USA into different cultural factions. See you are offended by the Bible Belt rednecks. You should stop being in the same country as them, so both you and them can stop paying taxes for a government and country you don't agree with.

Trump is the symptom, not the cause. He just shoots off his mouth wrongly assuming it is him that the people just love. But he is seriously wrong. Trump illustrates just how corrupt the system truly is for now we can visibly see how the Press treat him really negative at every possible moment. They have their marching orders from the establishment; stop giving him a free ride. The establishment is vowing not to support him even if he did win further demonstrating we are just the Great Unwashed and if the people really voted for Trump, they do not give a shit what the people want. This is their country and they rule and who are we to rise up.

After Trump’s comments on punishing women for getting an illegal abortion, you really have to question what was he thinking. Of course he has now come out and reversed himself after saying women who undergo the procedure should face “some form of punishment”...

It appear more and more that Trump will not win the nomination no less the White House. The real problem we face is no matter if we have Cruz or Hillary, nothing will change in government and your taxes will explode because when Social Security goes bust next year, both sides would raise taxes for neither will want to be known as the Party who killed FDR’s socialist agenda even if they rob the money in there anyway.

So with Cruz or Hillary, there will be no difference. Both are bought and paid for. So we should just get use to how bad things are really going to get come 2017. Goldman Sachs will own the White House no matter who wins now.

It seems more likely than not that they will rig the game one way or another to stop Trump and ignore why people are even voting for him, because it is really a vote against the establishment. This appears likely to explode in total chaos for 2018, and as we look into the 2017-2020 time period, it appears that they will destroy the public confidence in government on a wholesale basis.

As it now stands, they will most likely hand the nomination to Cruz one way or another. Trump’s only chance would be to run to the Libertarian Party since there would be no time left to get on all the ballots as an independent. Cruz would lose against Hillary and Hillary will destroy the economy with massive tax increases while protecting the banks. It appears we are indeed sowing the seed of our own destruction. The Republicans know Social Security goes negative in 2017, so they want to blame Hillary. Meanwhile, Trump shoots himself in the foot all the time and the media is in a full-blown assault against him. This is likely to undermine the entire confidence in government especially since Cruz came out and said he would not support Trump, only himself.

Trump seems to be just self-destructing and Cruz has effectively said the Republican Party is over for he will not support the candidate unless it is himself. Ever since your turning point 2015.75, we seem to be entering a period of whatever can go wrong, just goes wrong. Everything from the migrant invasion of Europe, the rise in Trump illustrating the frustration with government, the potential split in the Republican Party, and the Fed apparently yielding to IMF lobbying not to forget Christine Lagarde taking an unprecedented second term. This is just the major list from 2015.75 your peak in government. What else is left? It looks like the Republicans will split and hand everything to Hillary and her bankers. Either people are absolutely blind and can see nothing for they are just the drones of society or many are starting to wake up. Is this just the total chaos and the shift from Public to Private you warned about between 2017 and 2020?

Thanks for the enlightenment

ZT

ANSWER: Yes, this is just the short list. Whatever could go wrong is going wrong in a grand style. True, there are people who see nothing. They will be slaughtered for they form the majority. You cannot tell them anything. They will never acknowledge anything until they lose everything, which will come in the blink of an eye. The Russian invasion into Syria on that precise day of September 30, 2015, highlighted the crisis that seems to be spreading from the Middle East.

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[loafer_1997]

His support of Trump is kind of disgusting to me

Every time I see post like this, I always want to ask: then who do you support?

Trump exposed so much dirty politics, I can't remember when was last time I had so much fun in an election year.

[Lateralus]

Criminal Conviction: On September 29, 1999, Armstrong was indicted by a federal grand jury for having conspired with employees of Republic New York involving Japanese investors. Republic New York pleaded guilty to fraud in federal court on December 17, 2001 and agreed upon a restitution order on January 9, 2002 of $606 million.

Should I believe this ? : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

Just search for "www.themartinarmstrongcase.com" on web.archive.org for his detailed side of the story, and decide for yourself.

[TPTB_need_war]

One thing Armstrong does not yet realize:

I chose to agree. This would be the single biggest issue that would cause an enslaving of nations.
thats why we need country fiat and bitcoin.

I thought we are already in this situation.

*Ahem the US dollar? last time I checked everyone loves it, despite its covered bad value.

So why would it recourse into another world reserve currency.

The difference will be that the new one-world reserve coming approximately 2020, will not be controlled by any nation, but rather by a world government body.

This will be viewed by the world as more fair. But in reality it will be much less fair, because the world government will act basically the way the Troika does in the EU now, lending to the nations and never letting them default. They will lend in the world currency, but the people will be paid in their nation's shit currency which is debased like hell by the national politics. So then when the national currency loses value, the people are stuck paying back loans in the relatively more expensive world currency.

This is precisely what the Troika did to the PIIGS to destroy them. They will then do this on a global scale to enslave us all.

[valiz]

How is the 2015.75 debt big bang doing by the way? 
10 year US treasury has a yield of 1.73% and it was at 2% in October 2015...

It's 2016.25 now and it should arrive soon. 2015.75 was just the beginning of something.

[btcbug]

From his blog: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/the-dow-what-next/

It does not appear that we are ready for complete liftoff until the first quarter of 2017. It appears that we are looking at a collapse in public confidence and that is what we need for liftoff in this shift from public to private confidence. The Panama Papers will help with time. All governments are corrupt. That is a foregone conclusion. The question remains, when will the general public reach the reality that government is not there to protect their future? Politicians only fill their own pockets and are no different than the communist leaders before 1989.

So support now lies at 17434 and 17120. Daily closings below these numbers will signal a near-term correction. Holding 17434 on a closing basis in any retest of support signals a revisit of the resistance. Only a weekly closing above 17846 will signal a retest of the major high. Do not expect a breakout until 2017.

[tabnloz]

Interesting to know others opinions on cycles like the 18 year land price cycle (14 up, 4 down) that says current real estate boom has 10 years to run. I think cycle theorists like Fred Harrison, who picked 2008 in UK, adhere to this Kondratiev / Gann mix. Anyone see anything in it and how much can it differ from MA's.

[minor-transgression]

I seem to recall that Fred Harrison had a notional 22 year cycle for real estate, partly
based on generational cycles. There are other cycles - see this :

Years start from a strong el nino 82/83 87/88 97/98 09/10 16/17?
 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-weather-lanina-braun-idUSKCN0X215F
"A slowdown or reversal in this cooling trend does not seem likely as the atmosphere is becoming increasingly supportive of it. The Southern Oscillation Index, a measure of pressure tendencies over the Pacific Ocean, made a massive leap out of El Niño-favoring territory last month and is now ahead of the pace of similar years 1998 and 2010 (tmsnrt.rs/1TwETSN)."
"But given both the record peak it is coming from and the recent changes in the ocean and atmosphere, it would actually not be surprising to see the transition happen just as quickly as in 1998, if we truly are to enter into a stronger La Nina (tmsnrt.rs/1N5ek0p)."
"Now the model predicts a healthy La Niña by July, further dismantling the delayed La Nina theory (tmsnrt.rs/1N5h1PA).

The benefit of a model comes from your ability to ask it the right questions, so adding data
to a model doesn't necessarily help. I'd rate Socrates as 60% MA and 40% data.

[tabnloz]

I seem to recall that Fred Harrison had a notional 22 year cycle for real estate, partly
based on generational cycles. There are other cycles - see this :

Years start from a strong el nino 82/83 87/88 97/98 09/10 16/17?
 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-weather-lanina-braun-idUSKCN0X215F
"A slowdown or reversal in this cooling trend does not seem likely as the atmosphere is becoming increasingly supportive of it. The Southern Oscillation Index, a measure of pressure tendencies over the Pacific Ocean, made a massive leap out of El Niño-favoring territory last month and is now ahead of the pace of similar years 1998 and 2010 (tmsnrt.rs/1TwETSN)."
"But given both the record peak it is coming from and the recent changes in the ocean and atmosphere, it would actually not be surprising to see the transition happen just as quickly as in 1998, if we truly are to enter into a stronger La Nina (tmsnrt.rs/1N5ek0p)."
"Now the model predicts a healthy La Niña by July, further dismantling the delayed La Nina theory (tmsnrt.rs/1N5h1PA).

The benefit of a model comes from your ability to ask it the right questions, so adding data
to a model doesn't necessarily help. I'd rate Socrates as 60% MA and 40% data.

On a larger scale, we see periods of human advancement and growth occur during warming cycles and then war, disease and famine coincide with cooling as humanity retracts into smaller areas with less ability to produce food. Makes me wonder why the obsession over global warming; this sustained temperate global climate is unparalleled in human history. We need to make the most of it and realise that rapid climate changes have happened regularly over millenia (see Younger Dryas period - 12,800 years ago and again 9,600 yrs ago). What causes rapid climate change? It isn't factories or burning fossil fuels. It is much more violent and destructive.

[TPTB_need_war]

The April Emergency The Fed Doesn't Want You To Know About - Mike Maloney

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ne4YJYLm62g

Mike Maloney doesn't understand what is going because he only has a domestic perspective. You need to have a global capital flows analysis to understand what is really happening, which only Martin Armstrong can provide.

Martin Armstrong warned about this meeting and explained what it is really about given his extensive inside sources:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/americas-current-economy/federal-reserve-call-expedited-meeting-for-monday-april-11th/

The negative interest rates are creating a real crisis. This was the real reason why Yellen met at the White House. We are moving toward the realization that the central banks have created an impossible situation from which there is no escape. Keeping lower interest rates because all levels of government are hopelessly in debt is wiping out the pension funds.

Germany’s Federal Finance Minister Schaeuble is now openly blaming Mario Draghi for the electoral success of the AFD in Germany, which is the Alternative for Germany (In German: Alternative für Deutschland, AfD). The AFD is a right-wing populist party that is also the Eurosceptic political party in Germany. The AFD has risen from 0% to nearly 40% in about 2 years.

Additionally, Schaeuble seems to be rumbling that the ECB is creating a huge problem with negative interest rates. If the ECB does not change its monetary policy radically and soon, Germany will be engulfed in its own major pension crisis. Central banks may be forced to raise rates to try to bail out pension funds. This has nothing to do with the economic trends.

The pension crisis is becoming a real nightmare for federal and state budgets and now depend on exceptionally low interest rates while pension funds are going bankrupt. Raising rates to help the pension funds will wipe out government budgets. This entire idea of Keynesian economics, which says that government is capable of managing the economy by raising and lowering interest rates, is a complete disaster. These people are incapable of forecasting the economy, as former Secretary of the Treasury Larry Summers openly admitted to Bloomberg TV. Those who think they are endowed with magical powers to manipulate society have created a complete mess and they are too brain-dead to realize the consequences. Our computer is extremely bearish on government. The turning point (2015.75) was the PEAK IN GOVERNMENT. Ever since that turning point, we have begun the downhill move that is destined to collapse into January 2020 (2020.05).

Specifically, Mike Maloney is expecting a stock market crash but he is wrong, although he will correct for a short period of time which will trap the bears:

Keep in mind that this is the most pessimistic rally in history with the highest short-interest. This is why the market keeps pushing higher, yet slowly. It is eating through the pessimistic analysis and when rates begin to rise, there will be another wave of selling trapping the bears later in the year.

This is Martin Armstrong's Sling Shot scenario.

MA's thesis has been for several years consistently that after 2015.75, we would see all the major economies except the USA begin to collapse due to the global sovereign debt crisis, and that international capital would exit these other economies and buy the US dollar, US stocks, and other safe haven assets such as gold, trophy real estate, collectibles (and I presume crypto-currency). Do note that the Baltic Dry Index rolled over from it's deadcat bounce headed down again precisely on MA's predicted March 13/14 Pi model date.

Thus contrary to popular delusions/expectation, rising interest rates in the USA will kick off a booming stock market that would double or triple by 2018. But before that boom, there will be a bear market trap because most investors think only domestically and will be looking the domestic fundamentals as Mike Maloney is and thus get trapped in a bear market fakeout, which will V bottom and shit to a sling shot as the international capital stampedes into the USA as this rising interest rate scenario will devastate all the economies outside the USA for numerous reasons including the fact that there $10 trillion in corporate bonds abroad denominated in US dollars meaning those borrowers are short the dollar! Also the numerous dollar pegs, such as the Yuan, Hong Kong, etc are going to break for a similar reason, causing a cascade domino contagion effect.

This bear trap is why gold and crypto-currencies have not likely seen their lows yet and I am still expecting a selloff in gold to $850 or below and Bitcoin to below $150. The rising interest rates will break the 35 year Treasury Bond bubble and cause massive cash to seek a home in the stock market. But first it will cause a liquidity crisis bear market fakeout crash because of so many people caught on the wrong side of the trade and needing to sell other liquid assets to cover.

Mike Maloney is observing the correlation of the monetary base diverge from the Whilshire 5000 (USA stock market capitalization) because the international capital inflows are starting to offset the rising interest rates (the market actually sets rates, not the Fed).

The emergency meetings of the Fed is because they are losing control. The market is raising the rates and there is nothing they can do to stop this freight train.

The United States of America is emerging as a top tax haven after beating Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, and Panama. You can have secrecy in the USA and states such as Delaware, Nevada, South Dakota, and Wyoming are now competing with each other to provide foreigners with the secrecy they need. However, many are now just migrating to the States. Some 3,000 millionaires from Greece; 10,000 millionaires from France; 6,000 millionaires from Italy; 2,000 millionaires from Spain, and about 2,000 millionaires from Russia have all migrated to the USA. The trend is picking up momentum as tensions between Muslims and Christians rise throughout Europe. After the revelation of the Panama Papers, in which Americans were named the least, the trend is now picking up speed.

We also warned that only a closing above the 17750 reversal would see little follow-through into the next week. Why would we say such a thing? April is a turning point and so is June, and then when we get to August we have the Republican Convention, so it does not appear that we are in a runaway trend to the upside yet. We are preparing to breakout but not quite ready for prime time.

Moreover, the weekly array also shows a choppy trend for the weeks of the 11th and 25th and volatility begins to rise in May. So once again, a clear-sailing trend does not appear to be emerging just yet.

Nevertheless, even technically, the Dow is penetrating resistance and attempting to muscle its way ahead, despite those yelling there will be a huge crash once again.

It does not appear that we are ready for complete liftoff until the first quarter of 2017. It appears that we are looking at a collapse in public confidence and that is what we need for liftoff in this shift from public to private confidence. The Panama Papers will help with time. All governments are corrupt. That is a foregone conclusion. The question remains, when will the general public reach the reality that government is not there to protect their future? Politicians only fill their own pockets and are no different than the communist leaders before 1989.

So support now lies at 17434 and 17120. Daily closings below these numbers will signal a near-term correction. Holding 17434 on a closing basis in any retest of support signals a revisit of the resistance. Only a weekly closing above 17846 will signal a retest of the major high. Do not expect a breakout until 2017.

The Dow Jones took out the Weekly Bullish but not the key one at 17846. This is why we are basing without immediate follow-through. Nonetheless, our primary technical targets for the year at 17345, 18791 and 18880. Holding the 17345 level warns that we are still move to the upside. A weekly closing above 17846 will signal a retest of the major highs and the potential to make a new high even yet. We can see that from the chart above that the technical support on the weekly level rests at the 17619 area. Holding this is warning that further upside is likely. Keep in mind that BECAUSE we made the new lows in the NASDAQ and in the S&P500 but not the Dow, demonstrates what we have been warning about that this is still a capital inflow for the USA.

From a timing perspective, we still see the key weeks ahead as 04/25 and 05/09 with volatility picking up in May and then we have a Directional Change cluster in June near the BREXIT vote. Keep in mind that may in Europe and praying Britain votes to exit for they see this as the catalyst for the demise of the EU.

The timing clearly is showing June and August as key targets for now. This is centered around the BREXIT vote in June and the Republican Convention at the end of July. Directional changes are warning of a choppy affair until the first quarter next year.

Keep in mind that this is the most pessimistic rally in history with the highest short-interest. This is why the market keeps pushing higher, yet slowly. It is eating through the pessimistic analysis and when rates begin to rise, there will be another wave a selling trapping the bears latter in the year.

[TPTB_need_war]

A little lesson or wisdom for newbie speculators:

I think what he was eluding to is that by making such a comment you must then be really wealthy if you are nearly always right?

My response made it clear I understood what he meant and I also explained that if I were invested I wouldn't be as objective.

Also claiming that someone can make correct predictions the majority of the time means they should be rich from speculating is lacking some basic understanding of life. One of the main reasons I failed as a speculator is because I was unwilling to revolve my life around speculating, so for example even though I made the correct prediction of when to buy and sell silver, I didn't have my fiat and silver in the right places to make the trades. I had fiat in the USA that I couldn't get to Manila without putting me in some FATCA reporting scenario and I had physical in Manila that the dealer refused to buy or find a buyer at $48.

I am a programmer and a sportsaholic, and have my head and free time deep in other priorities. I don't want to be a speculator and be married to my investments 24 x 7. That doesn't diminish my ability to analyze markets.

The other reason I failed as a speculator is because I didn't know how to control my rationality when the combination of my illness messing with my adrenal function right after the May ER hospitalization, and my ex showing up to yank my kids unannounced in the same month, sent me into a tizzy trying to score big in the markets so I could afford to do something drastic about that situation. Which caused me to double-down ($75,000) on an irrational premature short bet  on China. I wasn't doing research, I was acting on my desires of what I wanted to happen.

So yeah I decided not to speculate because I made a lot of money in my life programming and creating. And lost most of it speculating, even though I had many correct predictions.

[TPTB_need_war]

r0ach I tried to explain this to you in the past and you still are repeating (what I and Martin Armstrong think is) the wrong conceptualization. I hope I can explain to you this time in a way that you will contemplate, because getting this wrong is going to be a big time error.

If you're looking at it in terms of the dollar and Bitcoin competing on equal grounds.  The USD is already the world reserve currency, and once you're #1, there's not much higher you can go.  The act of increasing interest rates would strengthen the dollar, yea, but not anywhere near to the extent the halving's effect on BTC price.

I do not see Bitcoin going anywhere but up from it's current position.  Some tiny interest rate increase is negligible in compared to the halving's effects.  

You are misunderstanding the timing and interplay presented by Armstrong which I explained in that post of mine if you clicked the quote and read the entire post.

Everyone right now thinks interest rates must decline because the US economy (and global  economy) is getting weaker. Thus everyone is skeptical about a rise in stock market. The stock market is slowing rising now to go against the majority of fools.

As the interest rate rises hit, they will assume this will crater the global economy, so they will sell the stock market and this will cause a brief contagion and crash. They will also sell off gold and all assets same as in 2008/2009. Thus Bitcoin can get caught up in this crazy reaction contagion. Remember silver fell from $21 to $8.

But what nobody understands is international capital flows. All the capital flows will head towards the USA as the safe haven during this expectation of global contraction due to rising interest rates. Thus paradoxically the US stock market will start booming in V bottom sling shot and no one will initially believe it has staying power. But the fundamental flows won't stop. So this US sling shot will turn into a raging bubble by late 2017 or 2018 with a double or triple possible.

So paradoxically the US stock market will rise with interest rates due to capital flows dominating. Also rising interest rates will drive people out of bonds, not into them. Armstrong has shown that stocks rise with interest rates at times of crisis like this such as 1920 - 1930 era.

Gold and Bitcoin will rise with the stock market as the public starts to realize the government is toast and they must shift to private assets such as stocks, AAA corporate bonds, gold, and other collectibles.

The US stock market has phased shift and is no longer going to be a public wave asset and will be a private assets and thus rise with the dollar and gold and crypto not opposite.

The price of gold and Bitcoin don't move in unison either:

Btw, gold and BTC are somewhat highly correlated (afair -0.58), contrary to what your eye is telling you. They are phase shifted, but that is not relevant.

Another thing that bothered me about that article is that I've looked at estimates of what percent the stock market is composed of regarding retirement funds and the numbers were always huge.  Raising interest rates tanks the stock market, so how does raising interest help retirement funds if so many of them are in the stock market in the first place?

See the above. Rising interest rates will raise the US stock market. The rest of the world will be toast. War is coming...

After 2018 the USA economy will have been choked off by the strong dollar which destroy the rest of the world and as international capital inflows abate.

Then we do a global monetary reset. Asia will bottom 2020. The West will continue declining in clusterfuck chaos through 2033.

[libertad]

When is this "brief contagion and crash" expected?

I don't expect it to be to close to election time.

[TPTB_need_war]

Well, I obviously have far less faith in this Armstrong guy than you do.  I've seen the general summary of how he claims to predict markets:  international capital flows seeking safety or returns, then seems to derive how everything moves by an ambiguous, impossible to quantify variable known as confidence.

You have no clue what he is doing. He literally put $billion (inflation-adjusted to current dollars) of data from 6000 B.C. to real-time present into the supercomputer to analyze all the repeating patterns in a multi-dimensional correlation that extracts the Strange Attactor order hidden in Chaos (Chaos Theory). This model has predicted everything accurately for 30 years. Did you know he told us in advance March 13/14 would signify a major turn in the global markets to the downside, and that is precisely when the deadcat bounce in the Baltic Sea index rolled over. r0ach you will get your ass burned claiming Armstrong is a clown. Read this and tell me this guy doesn't know every detail of history that wasn't written in any history text book:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/ancient-economies/vikings/

The guy spent $10 million (in 1980s dollars) alone just collecting everything silver coin from the Roman empire and constructing the first accurate silver price chart of that era based on the actual silver content.

I mean, everyone knows markets are "confidence games" already, I just don't see how you can plug that into any objective mathematical formula when it requires him to arbitrate what markets have confidence or not via his own opinion.

He also explains how, when, and why confidence will shift and his computer model tracks all of that.

Then the fact that you have, to borrow a Max Keiser term

Please don't compare a clown to a scientist.

, suicide central bankers constantly and irrationally manipulating levers to distort the market.  I mean, come on, any prediction model someone builds is useless in a centrally administered, non-freemarket economy unless he's a government insider.  There is no bypassing that fact.

Armstrong is not using a crowdsourced prediction market. His method is scientific and has been backtested to every event in history down to even minutest detail.

On to the next problem.  Let's assume this guy isn't a circus clown and has made some accurate predictions in the past.  Let's say he's looking at markets and says, "Ok, historical data shows when capital moves this way, the price of gold goes down because either strengthening dollar, inflation, deflation, etc".  To determine which way gold moves in such a scenario, you would first have to define whether gold is being treated as a currency or commodity by the market.

He can teach you everything about precisely that topic. You will learn many new things.

It seems he just assumes gold will always be a useless commodity and will never be a currency again.

Ah you have a lot of learn from the master. Seriously. You better getting started asap. Or you can just wait, and I will tell you, "I told you so" later.

The second he gets that "guess" wrong, well his entire model is fucked.

Please don't be a Dunning-Kruger fool. Seriously. It is embarrassing. Don't make statements like that without reading Armstrong for a couple of weeks until you realize how foolish your statement is.

I would not tell you to waste your time. You know my reputation by now.

Or, maybe the US keeps using the dollar, but India or some other country converts entirely to gold.  I have zero faith in this guy to predict the future because there's far too many variables to address.

Sadly you have no faith in what you refuse to study. How smart is that?

The next problem is, he doesn't seem to talk about Bitcoin at all (if ever?).

He does. And he doesn't think much of it. I think he doesn't understand Bitcoin is part of the global monetary reset he knows is coming after 2018. He knows there will be a new reserve currency that isn't controlled by any nation. He seems to think Bitcoin is not controlled by the elite. He apparently doesn't know that China controls 65% of the hashrate and so Bitcoin is already a fiat system.

I feel you're just extrapolating what he says about gold and blanket applying a correlation to Bitcoin when there is no evidence of one.

That is possible. He has not made a price prediction on Bitcoin.

It's entirely possible the market treats gold as a commodity and Bitcoin as a currency, or even vice versa.

He says the market will treat gold as a hedge against government.

It's also possible the fed loses control on gold/silver manipulation and some kind of hell breaks lose.

He has already proven there is only manipulation to the upside and never to the downside. He was the largest trader on commodities ever. He knew Warren Buffet was the mystery buyer. He was on the inside with PhilBro. Dude you have no clue who Armstrong is. Please do your homework which will requires weeks.

Armstrong assumes the dollar is the safe haven of the world and will benefit in times of distrust in other markets.  He makes this assumption even though confidence in the dollar and it's institutions are already at a historical low.  A computer model didn't tell him this, he had to make these assumptions.  Due to being free of central banker manipulation, it's entirely possible something like Bitcoin could have much higher confidence than the dollar in such situations.  He doesn't address Bitcoin at all, and you just assume Bitcoin will follow a non-existent, gold as a commodity and not a currency correlation.  Let's not even get into the fact that a central banker flipping one lever decides if the economy implodes in deflation or hyperinflation, making whatever he predicts completely obsolete.

And he will be correct with 100% certainty. Sorry you speak Dunning-Kruger nonsense.

[TPTB_need_war]

Come on, man, it seems he has already moved the goalposts around numerous times recently.  I seem to recall you stating several times that the economy would peak and crash around the year 2020 according to Armstrong.  Then he also claimed an entirely different timeline as outlined below, where he claims we're about to entre into some type of raging bull market.  According to what date you listened to Armstrong, the global economy would be doing the exact opposite of the other forecast:

Sorry r0ach, Calculus And Differential Equations can't be learned in 1 minute with a soundbite.

Neither can the science of Armstrong. Ignorance is a choice, not a virtue.

I suggest you remain ignorant. I have no more time to offer you on this. Good luck.

[OROBTC]

...

TPTB

The most interesting items I have picked up from you & Armstrong (it has taken some time, I need to see things repeated or examined at different times) is international capital flows.  To my knowledge, I have not seen this subject addressed among other financial market observers, at least not in detail.  It is possible that the IMF or BIS have addressed this subject, it would be right up their ally, but I do not subscribe to their news flows.

Armstrong makes a lot of sense that capital will flee to America in the next couple of years.  Things in general are getting much worse in Europe (millionaires fleeing -- those are probably the vanguard).

On the matter of his supercomputer and all of the data he has put into it, you may be right, it may be that he will find something useful (in the sense of making useful (correct) predictions).  That is an open question for me however.  I also have doubts that Armstrong (or even IBM and their Watsons) can make good predictions...  But, I do recognize cyclicality, beyond this point I am not competent to comment further.

[TPTB_need_war]

When you come to understand that 'matter' emerges from two dimensions of the frequency domain continuum (<-- my blog post) and that without friction then the speed-of-light would be infinite and the past and future would collapse into the same infinitesimal point of nothingness, then you understand everything in our universe is cyclical. The cyclical order is hidden in multi-dimensions of correlation, i.e. the Strange Attractor in Chaos Theory.

This is at the level of importance as Einstein's discovery of the Theories of Relativity.

[TPTB_need_war]

What exactly do you define the Armstrong model as?  When Bitcoin Core devs get mad at me about some random technical disagreement, words like "come on, you're not omniscient" are usually said.  So are you saying that when I claim it's an error-prone, probablistic model, that's wrong?  What else could it possibly be?  Are you really going to assign omniscient traits to this guy's gambling system?

As for your website, it's kind of bizarre that I have similar conclusions involving AI that you did, almost word for word in the David Latapite "transhumanism" thread from a year ago where I said true AI is impossible without human evolution, except in probably more detail.  Then the actual, real danger of AI or attempts to create it is in the last paragraph.  From my post:

[...]

The unbounded attribute of the universe appears to be fractal, i.e. patterns within patterns. So the unbounded entropy is in the small, not in the large. This is why Armstrong points out that short-term cycles (e.g. day trading) are much more noisy (i.e. randomized). The higher-level the cycles in time, the less random the deviation.

So while A.I. will eventually emulate much of what it can observe that a set of humans can do, it can't (unless it becomes integrated within evolution and competitive reproduction) make every copy of itself a unigue solution to the unbounded evolutionary fitness continuum. The unseen fractal patterns encoded in the evolutionary continuum are not carried within the genome and dynamic living network of A.I. bots, because for one thing they are discrete and not analog biological. The complexity/entropy of a living creature is unbounded in the unseen fractal patterns encoded in the evolutionary continuum.

Here is the key point. Nature is not top-down controlled and there is no 'error' as every variation is information to the evolutionary continuum. A.I. would need to become alive in the sense that it is a self-reproducing, self-motivated, decentralized process controlled by no one. Then it would no longer be ARTIFICIAL intelligence.

So Armstrong has correlated the large fractal pattern cycles which are stable as is man's lifespan, reproductive maturity, Sun spots cycles, Earth's various cycles such as earthquakes, etc..

[spazzdla]

How is the 2015.75 debt big bang doing by the way? 
10 year US treasury has a yield of 1.73% and it was at 2% in October 2015...

Big bang? You mean slight dip?

[DigiLab]

TPTB, I must say, I love when someone challenges you and you spill out all this good stuff.

As for the master himself and his modelling, oh man, where does one to start, since there is so much to tell. Actually though, MA has provided lots of stuff from his work for free, which is so amazing. But it requires quite a dedication and time to be understood. And the more one reads and understands his work, the more one is getting drawn in, .